Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1102

#51 | spooky96 | Posted 8/10/2013 10:01:14 AM | message detail
B8 disliked FF7? That shattered my heart.
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#52 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/10/2013 10:01:30 AM | message detail
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
Not_Wylvane posted...
To be fair, Ganondorf's not that far off from what Vincent scored on him, though I forget if that was a night match. Ganondorf's probably going to go up a good bit too once Europe's votes slow down.

On the other hand, 2010 was probably Guybrush's peak (he did worse against Bowser in a previous contest than against Vincent) and he's likely lost strength since then.

At any rate, it's not a good sign if you have Mewtwo > Vincent!


And doing worse in a previous contest against Bowser than he did against 2010 Vincent is a sign of Guybrush being stronger why, exactly? I mean, it used to be that we were pretty sure Vincent was the #3 FF7 character, and now the people who refuse to accept change are left trying to come up with some sort of theory to combat the empirical evidence that 2010 gave us that this is no longer true.

Accept it; Vincent's weaker than he used to be. And if this year's seeding is any indication, he's slipped even further into the depths of the forgotten characters. Wouldn't surprise me at all if the Guru winner for CBX (or whatever Games Contest comes after it) ends up picking Vincent for the CBXI Guru Nomination in order to rectify his "egregious" absence from CBX.


uh so do I repost this if Vincent does something like beat Sonic this year
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#53 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/10/2013 10:01:35 AM | message detail
kinsho3 posted...
Jensen vs. Marisa vs. Guybrush Threepwood vs Max Payne

Who would win 1st and 2nd in this four-pack of crap?


Gimme Jensen for first and Marisa for second.
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#54 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/10/2013 10:02:34 AM | message detail
kinsho3 posted...
Jensen vs. Marisa vs. Guybrush Threepwood vs Max Payne

Who would win 1st and 2nd in this four-pack of crap?


Jensen and Marisa.
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#55 | --Smurf-- | Posted 8/10/2013 10:03:12 AM | message detail
kinsho3 posted...
Jensen vs. Marisa vs. Guybrush Threepwood vs Max Payne

Who would win 1st and 2nd in this four-pack of crap?


I'd probably take Guybrush there, I feel like Jensen and Max Payne's fanbase could overlap a bit these days. Touhou have a plateau that'll probably prevent them ever winning something but I'd love to see one of them in a four way with stacked opposition for x-stat giggles.
Snake/Shepard/Dragonborn/Reimu would be pretty fun.
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#56 | Denzokuken | Posted 8/10/2013 10:03:31 AM | message detail
Guybrush will add Jensen and Marisa to his fledgling harem. Moving on up!
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#57 | LOLContests | Posted 8/10/2013 10:07:22 AM | message detail | (edited)
Man, I thought the match for second might be close at first, but then I realized that I was forgetting Max Payne had a new game last year.

Welp, considering I barely play games anymore, and neither does GameFAQS I should just trust my initial thoughts. If I didn't realize Max Payne had a new game, why would GameFAQS?
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#58 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/10/2013 10:08:12 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
And doing worse in a previous contest against Bowser than he did against 2010 Vincent is a sign of Guybrush being stronger why, exactly? I mean, it used to be that we were pretty sure Vincent was the #3 FF7 character, and now the people who refuse to accept change are left trying to come up with some sort of theory to combat the empirical evidence that 2010 gave us that this is no longer true.


Hey, if you want to believe 2004 Bowser scores 64% on 2010 Vincent, be my guest.


...64%?

...Oh. Okay, then. I don't think I'd even take 2010 Bowser to score 64% on 2010 Vincent, and I figure that Bowser's probably been staying fairly constant with slight possible gains (I mean, Villains 2005 suggests that Ganondorf is stronger than Bowser, but I don't for a moment believe that to be true anymore, even if it was true then. But that could be Ganondorf weakening.)

Didn't realize that the discrepancy was that big. And yeah, Bowser does seem like he's actually been getting a little stronger...I don't know. 2004 Bowser and 2010 Vincent, that match could go either way. With so few contests, it's hard to even see where Vincent's declines might have been. About the only thing we can see is that Vincent lost to Crono in 2008 after beating him in 2007, and it doesn't really look like the SFF/LFF from the other characters was any more favorable to Crono in 2008 so Vincent must have had a sharper decrease than Crono.
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#59 | LOLContests | Posted 8/10/2013 10:10:46 AM | message detail | (edited)
Guybrush's games were re-released on the Wii (possibly other systems too) right before 2010. He was probably a bit more popular that year than he usually is.

Edit: Plus the fact that OLPF might have hid his "popularity" somewhat in 2007/2008.
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#60 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/10/2013 10:10:37 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
Not_Wylvane posted...
To be fair, Ganondorf's not that far off from what Vincent scored on him, though I forget if that was a night match. Ganondorf's probably going to go up a good bit too once Europe's votes slow down.

On the other hand, 2010 was probably Guybrush's peak (he did worse against Bowser in a previous contest than against Vincent) and he's likely lost strength since then.

At any rate, it's not a good sign if you have Mewtwo > Vincent!


And doing worse in a previous contest against Bowser than he did against 2010 Vincent is a sign of Guybrush being stronger why, exactly? I mean, it used to be that we were pretty sure Vincent was the #3 FF7 character, and now the people who refuse to accept change are left trying to come up with some sort of theory to combat the empirical evidence that 2010 gave us that this is no longer true.

Accept it; Vincent's weaker than he used to be. And if this year's seeding is any indication, he's slipped even further into the depths of the forgotten characters. Wouldn't surprise me at all if the Guru winner for CBX (or whatever Games Contest comes after it) ends up picking Vincent for the CBXI Guru Nomination in order to rectify his "egregious" absence from CBX.


uh so do I repost this if Vincent does something like beat Sonic this year


Go right ahead; it's not like Vincent beating Sonic is going to get him into CBX! I'm going to need to see how the Round 2 matches go to know what to expect for Round 3, though.
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#61 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/10/2013 10:16:54 AM | message detail | (edited)
Using 2010 as 'empirical' evidence that Vincent is weaker than Tifa using Sephiroth matches is pretty silly, too. Tifa got SFFed just as hard if not harder than Vincent when she went up against Sephiroth in the contest beforehand, otherwise she'd have made the quarters if not the semis. Vincent would have scored just as much if not more than Tifa did on Seph if his match had come post-Missingno.

Edit: Need I remind you that Tifa let Big Daddy score 40% on her, too? Pikachu just held him to 30%.
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#62 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/10/2013 10:15:18 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
There's probably a far more efficient way to do this, but I'm really tired so off the top of my head:

Divide 100 by any one of those percentages, I'll take Jensen's because I think taking the smallest one will speed up the process but I'm not 100% sure.

So 100/12.73 is approximately 7.86.

Then keep taking multiples of 7.86 until you get something close to a whole number. 55.02 is pretty close so stop there and see if you can get the percentages to work with 55 total votes. I'll aim for Marisa's because just under half is easy. 26/55 gets you 47.27% and 27/55 gets you 49.09% so 55 is out.

So keep going up on multiples of 7.86. Next close match is 110.04. So try again with 110. Same routine.

53/110 gets you 48.18% so there's Marisa's %. 43/110 gets you 39.09 so there's Vivi, and finally 14/110 gets you 12.73 and everything is good. So any multiple of 110 will work as a votal here.

There's a few things I'm thinking just looking at that for shortcuts but I'm not totally sure on them and even then, I kind of feel like there has to be a better way.


Oh god I tried to figure it out alone before asking and didn't find an easy way
Seems like there really isn't
I mean yeah it's not that hard but defiantly harder than expected
#63 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/10/2013 10:29:41 AM | message detail
lol max payne

Also, can we add the Toowho characters to the list of things to never nominate again? If you struggle (and fail) to get second place against turbofodder with massive stuffing, you don't desserve to be in the contest.

And with that video someone linked in the last topic, it looks like the Toowho fanbase is on par with Bronies as far as people who deserve to be removed from the genepool.
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#64 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/10/2013 10:30:08 AM | message detail
That vote stuffing talk made me read the board 8 article about Tommy vs Kefka

...Will we ever have a match like this...with the board exploding so bad..?
#65 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/10/2013 10:30:40 AM | message detail
Actually, I think Poohou is a better name for them. Let's go with that.
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#66 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/10/2013 10:31:48 AM | message detail
The board has exploded many times before and since Tommy/Kefka.
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#67 | Sorozone | Posted 8/10/2013 10:31:52 AM | message detail
Argh my suspicions of Guybrush being scary for Max were right. Still have 10.5 hours to go, so if he is still ahead with 3 to go, I'm gonna be mad.
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#68 | -hotdogturtle-- | Posted 8/10/2013 10:34:39 AM | message detail
I no-picked because I wasn't confident that this generic guy would be able to able to beat a cult favorite like this.
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#69 | --Smurf-- | Posted 8/10/2013 10:36:43 AM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
lol max payne

Also, can we add the Toowho characters to the list of things to never nominate again? If you struggle (and fail) to get second place against turbofodder with massive stuffing, you don't desserve to be in the contest.

And with that video someone linked in the last topic, it looks like the Toowho fanbase is on par with Bronies as far as people who deserve to be removed from the genepool.


The shenanigans turned 2nd place in the last match from one of the biggest no brainers in the contest to something debatable. Reimu was completly legit (according to Allen) and Marisa would look strong if nothing else gets deleted so they'd be some of the more interesting characters to bring back, very hard to predict in round 1 especially multi-ways.
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#70 | --Smurf-- | Posted 8/10/2013 10:38:53 AM | message detail
I don't really like Max's cutting power here and the US aren't exactly giving him overwhelming support. If he doesn't do something soon he'll have too much to do over the night.
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#71 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/10/2013 10:40:21 AM | message detail
Assuming Marisa is worth around 25% on Vivi and a constant Vivi that puts her on about... Miles Edgeworth level or so. That's not the absolute *worst* you can get but we probably don't need to see her back in a bracket that doesn't look like this.
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#72 | Sorozone | Posted 8/10/2013 10:45:12 AM | message detail
Guybrush is barely losing to Max in the U.S.

Starting think I should have gone with my gut. Ah well. Part of the fun I suppose.
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#73 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/10/2013 10:45:58 AM | message detail
1670 votes were removed from Marisa's final vote total. In addition to the votes that were removed from Marisa near the beginning of the match, there were about 2000 stuffed votes for Marisa.
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#74 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/10/2013 10:48:02 AM | message detail
If Max can keep it close he can comeback, while the US is close Canada and Brazil are both favouring Max plus this has more to do with Europe going to sleep, only Finland is among the 7 countries to support Max and all the others are heavily going with Guybrush.
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#75 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/10/2013 10:49:18 AM | message detail
Hopefully SBAllen keeps a close watch on Magikarp, that actually has the potential to change the winner.
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#76 | Sorozone | Posted 8/10/2013 10:52:57 AM | message detail
Draven should be on watch.

It's honestly hard to believe there were no stuffed votes in that now. Same with Reimu and Missile, but those are probably so far back, he doesn't care.
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#77 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/10/2013 10:52:57 AM | message detail
If Magikarp breaks 35% directly on Mega Man, colour me shocked. I think it will be more of a X/Jigglypuff situation.
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#78 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/10/2013 10:54:38 AM | message detail
Eh, removing votes from two nigh-pointless Touhou characters does not a trend make. We've already seen that stuffing is something that can get past the automatic security methods. If someone is able to do it in a more sophisticated way or is just smarter about it I still don't have faith that it can or will be caught.
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#79 | vcharon | Posted 8/10/2013 10:54:44 AM | message detail
Draven's match definitely SHOULD have been reevaluated. I'm not too concerned about Magikarp because of who he'll be up against.
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#80 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/10/2013 10:56:29 AM | message detail
If Bacon would fix the poll maps, I can view the source code of this page to use the updated vote total data for a revised trend chart:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/map?id=5207
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#81 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/10/2013 10:56:37 AM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
1670 votes were removed from Marisa's final vote total. In addition to the votes that were removed from Marisa near the beginning of the match, there were about 2000 stuffed votes for Marisa.


Pah
There are more than half of stuffed votes than legit ones
Sad
#82 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/10/2013 10:58:00 AM | message detail
And yeah while it wasn't my inclination I think I'm gonna have to subscribe to the lolpen theory on Draven's match. There was almost certainly significant stuffing there, but considering that Draven's presence was also driving real enhanced site traffic alongside it there was no real incentive to put a halt to it.
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#83 | GloryChaos | Posted 8/10/2013 10:58:35 AM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
lol max payne

Also, can we add the Toowho characters to the list of things to never nominate again? If you struggle (and fail) to get second place against turbofodder with massive stuffing, you don't desserve to be in the contest.

And with that video someone linked in the last topic, it looks like the Toowho fanbase is on par with Bronies as far as people who deserve to be removed from the genepool.


I agree with you now, Regaro. I agree wholeheartedly.
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#84 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/10/2013 10:59:07 AM | message detail
I dunno the reddit page someone gave a few days back does make the rally seem legit
#85 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/10/2013 11:00:12 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
I dunno the reddit page someone gave a few days back does make the rally seem legit


There was a rally, for sure. There was very actual elevation of site traffic from reddit and LoL and what have you, absolutely.

But that doesn't mean there wasn't also stuffing, which seems *highly* probable now.
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#86 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/10/2013 11:01:31 AM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
1670 votes were removed from Marisa's final vote total. In addition to the votes that were removed from Marisa near the beginning of the match, there were about 2000 stuffed votes for Marisa.


Wow... Seeing this makes me think that Draven's result might not be legit after all.
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#87 | XIII_rocks | Posted 8/10/2013 11:04:46 AM | message detail
Uh if anything this makes Draven look more legit >_>

Allen was prepared to take votes from Marisa in *that* match, but he let stuffing slide in Draven/Jak just for the lols?
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#88 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/10/2013 11:08:14 AM | message detail | (edited)
I just noticed that there was a vote stuffer in Iceland and another vote stuffer in Turkey, based on the results. In Turkey, Marisa went from 26.67% to 57.69% over the last 10 minutes of the match.

And in Iceland, Marisa went from 30.77% to 60.87% over the last 20 minutes of the match.

I also discovered a vote stuffer in Estonia too - 14.29% to 70% over the last 20 minutes of the match. But the vote totals for Estonia were very low, only 7 votes before the stuffer added 3 more votes to Estonia.
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#89 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/10/2013 11:05:03 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Nanis23 posted...
I dunno the reddit page someone gave a few days back does make the rally seem legit


There was a rally, for sure. There was very actual elevation of site traffic from reddit and LoL and what have you, absolutely.

But that doesn't mean there wasn't also stuffing, which seems *highly* probable now.


hmmm
if 20% of Draven's "rally" was stuffing, how many votes does this take off, like 2000?
#90 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/10/2013 11:06:47 AM | message detail
XIII_rocks posted...
Uh if anything this makes Draven look more legit >_>

Allen was prepared to take votes from Marisa in *that* match, but he let stuffing slide in Draven/Jak just for the lols?


Because he wasn't as attentive that match, because he's gotten better at catching it since then, because Draven is driving higher site traffic and it's in his interest to keep that going, there's a lot of possible reasons.
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#91 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/10/2013 11:06:56 AM | message detail
SBAllen (I think Devin made the topic) said he could not find any significant stuffing so either there wasn't or the people that did it are very good not to be noticed.
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#92 | --Smurf-- | Posted 8/10/2013 11:07:27 AM | message detail
It doesn't really make sense that he'd do this now when there equally blatant things going on for Reimu and Missile. Just seems like he let them go because they were early in the match when trends hadn't set yet while Cirno opened the floodgates by doing something incredibly blatant after trends were well set that he just couldn't ignore.

Since he's started down this path he should really look over other matches like Kerrigan/Missile, Tharja/Tiny and especially Draven.
It just seems really weird that his message is Reimu was completely legit even though she did better than the other two who stuffed one and two thousand. If Cirno had done her shenanigans in the first 6 hours of the poll instead of the last 6 I feel like nothing would have happened.
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#93 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/10/2013 11:08:43 AM | message detail
Anyway you're not going to convince me in the slightest that we've had zero instances of significant vote stuffing between Kefka/Vercetti and Tifa/Cirno/Chun-Li. You're just not; it's a completely laughable idea.
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#94 | tgs2 | Posted 8/10/2013 11:08:45 AM | message detail
XIII_rocks posted...
Uh if anything this makes Draven look more legit >_>

Allen was prepared to take votes from Marisa in *that* match, but he let stuffing slide in Draven/Jak just for the lols?


Enough people predicted a crazy LoL rally and it happened so not too many eyebrows were risen. Touhou all of a sudden goes berserk and people finally want to call it out.
#95 | XIII_rocks | Posted 8/10/2013 11:11:20 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
XIII_rocks posted...
Uh if anything this makes Draven look more legit >_>

Allen was prepared to take votes from Marisa in *that* match, but he let stuffing slide in Draven/Jak just for the lols?


Because he wasn't as attentive that match, because he's gotten better at catching it since then, because Draven is driving higher site traffic and it's in his interest to keep that going, there's a lot of possible reasons.


Well ok when it's "logic" vs. "conspiracy theories" I'll go with the former

Don't think attentiveness comes into it. Devin was around and there were tons of people with an eye on that poll. I'd need to see the poll map but I really doubt it.
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#96 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/10/2013 11:13:35 AM | message detail
XIII_rocks posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
XIII_rocks posted...
Uh if anything this makes Draven look more legit >_>

Allen was prepared to take votes from Marisa in *that* match, but he let stuffing slide in Draven/Jak just for the lols?


Because he wasn't as attentive that match, because he's gotten better at catching it since then, because Draven is driving higher site traffic and it's in his interest to keep that going, there's a lot of possible reasons.


Well ok when it's "logic" vs. "conspiracy theories" I'll go with the former

Don't think attentiveness comes into it. Devin was around and there were tons of people with an eye on that poll. I'd need to see the poll map but I really doubt it.


Logic and conspiracy theories are not mutually exclusive, though this is hardly the latter in any case. And like I just said, if you really think we've had no instances of significant vote stuffing in the eight years between Kefka/Vercetti and Tifa/Cirno/Chun-Li you're the one being wholly illogical.
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#97 | XIII_rocks | Posted 8/10/2013 11:14:36 AM | message detail
But whether Draven stuffed or not, I don't think the Touhou stuffing says anything *definitive* about it either way. It's a false correlation.
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#98 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/10/2013 11:15:07 AM | message detail
wait what does the map for the Draven match look like
that should give a big clue whether it was legit or not
#99 | XIII_rocks | Posted 8/10/2013 11:15:47 AM | message detail
List some KH
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#100 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/10/2013 11:16:13 AM | message detail
Updated Top 10

Top 10 Least Popular Night Polls
1. Lugia vs. Sly Cooper vs. Francis York Morgan – Round 1 – 22481
2. Gordon Freeman vs. Simon Belmont vs. Hades – Round 1 – 22609
3. Yoshimitsu vs. Lu Bu vs. Groose – Round 1 – 23006
4. Nathan Drake vs. Pac-Man vs. Steve – Round 1 – 23129
5. Big Boss vs. Captain Viridian vs. Peacock – Round 1 – 23150
6. Dracula vs. Lucina vs. Caim – Round 1 – 23719
7. GlaDOS vs. Cole vs. Ragna the Bloodedge – Round 1 – 24282
8. Vivi vs. Adam Jensen vs. Marisa Kirisame – Round 1 – 24390
9. Elizabeth vs. Poison vs. Thrall – Round 1 – 24651
10. Shadow the Hedgehog vs. Yu Narukami vs. Kat – Round 1 – 24941
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