GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1102
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Congratulations,
Guybrush. It took 5 embarrassing matches prior to this, but you've
finally beaten another character. Now find a way to advance to Round 2
in a future contest. ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~ http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://www.thengamer.com/ http://thengamer.com/xstats ~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame ~*Character Contest Histories*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the Match Pics*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php ~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~ https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0 ~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense. Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated. --- The Gamer In Me His dark secret is he's really Spark Brushel in disguise. If people knew, he'd be ruined. - Spiral on the black psyche locks |
Now to find a way to convince Guybrush supporters to stop nominating him forever --- http://i.imgur.com/fe05x.png http://i.imgur.com/stNJf.png |
That opening statement is just begging to be upset --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0 |
Zelda > Charizard |
Also, I had Ganon > Guybrush > Payne in the expert challenge but wussed out at the last minute to bank. Damnit! --- The Gamer In Me "Ike and Ash & Co. saw a Yoshi and didn't catch it." - Mer telling us his dream. |
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
This is just painful to watch... --- "Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
Max Payne is getting what his name asks for lol. --- Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC |
LeonhartFour posted... Now to find a way to convince Guybrush supporters to stop nominating him forever Give me 15 better characters that aren't locks to make it and I might stop. --- Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. SuperNiceDog > Me |
LeonhartFour posted... Now to find a way to convince Guybrush supporters to stop nominating him forever Mostly Europeans, I imagine. That's probably where he gets most of his nominations from. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
Man really trying to jinx this Guybrush win huh --- www.dudewheresmyfreedom.com Proud to share the same beliefs as SmartMuffin |
Believe
it or not, however, this is only Guybrush's sixth contest match.
Everyone here seems to think he's a contest mainstay, but not going by
"number of matches". At least not in comparison to the likes of Tails, Cats, Vercetti, Ocelot, Laharl, and Wesker, although some of them are helped by the villains contest and some were helped by early contest appearances. --- Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC |
Zylothewolf posted... Give me 15 better characters that aren't locks to make it and I might stop. Name any character who's made a contest before this year who isn't in this year I'm sure there's at least 15. --- http://i.imgur.com/kCpvD.gif |
why didn't you people nominate Liquid Snake --- www.dudewheresmyfreedom.com Proud to share the same beliefs as SmartMuffin |
More like why didn't you people nominate Jecht --- http://img.imgcake.com/tumblrmb8ky9zpsk1qd3518o8250gifyd.gif http://img.imgcake.com/tumblrmb8ky9zpsk1qd3518o6250gifuv.gif |
20 vote cut by Payne. In the last thread I said Guybrush was legendary, I guess only in Europe is the correct answer. --- XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak |
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
I'm
not saying that Guybrush isn't fodder. But he's fodder that will
consistently manage a certain number of votes. It's like that match in
the 2009 Games Contest where Monkey Island managed a "win" with less
than 10% of the vote because SMB3 was sucking up over 75% of the vote in
a fourway. I don't think Guybrush is ever going to be able to win a 1v1
unless he was put up against something extremely weak. But in a
multi-way contest? The higher the winner's percentage goes, the greater
the chance he can come in second place. --- RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed. |
To be fair, who'd expect Liquid Snake to miss the cut in a 243-character bracket. --- Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy II - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3557012 Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64 |
Ganondorf with over 70% in the US and over 75% in Canada. When Europe goes to sleep, Ganondorf should dominate the SNV. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
Karma Hunter posted... why didn't you people nominate Liquid Snake I nominated him! I also nominated Psycho Mantis and Sniper Wolf though (along with Raiden and the man himself, Solid Snake!), so I think I was in an MGS phase at the time. I also remember nominating Aeris, Tifa, Rinoa, and Seifer, and I would have nominated Vincent if I had actually met him in FFVII by that time (I hadn't, now I have). --- Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC |
Honestly
if Guybrush gets such a disproportionate amount of his power from
Europe we're going to see it when they fall asleep. Max should start
storming back if that's the case. --- www.dudewheresmyfreedom.com Proud to share the same beliefs as SmartMuffin |
TsunamiXXVIII posted... But he's fodder that will consistently manage a certain number of votes. No, he won't. This is like when we used to postulate that CATS had a vote ceiling. Low vote totals don't appreciably help fodder in any way. --- http://img600.imageshack.us/img600/8718/leonflowchart.png |
Not_Wylvane posted... To be fair, who'd expect Liquid Snake to miss the cut in a 243-character bracket. To be fair, he barely made it into 2010. --- Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC |
It there's one series that has looked worse than FF7, it's Zelda. Literally struggling to demolish Guybrush, what a joke. --- Zinsanity of the Helix Board |
Guybrush is stomping Ganondorf in the UK. Haha. --- We are living our lives Abound with so much information |
Ganon's doing fine another solid showing from the King --- no space all business |
Here's the thing, I could see if Ganondorf was crushing this poll. But he's barely able to triple Guybrush Threepwood
right now. Guybrush has over 20% of the vote against two people
combined. This isn't like Monkey Island, this is just hilarious. --- www.dudewheresmyfreedom.com Proud to share the same beliefs as SmartMuffin |
Guybrush is gonna end up losing >_> --- Still smilin' :> |
MasterMoltar posted... Ganon's doing fine Pretty soon we'll be in KOS-MOS > Ganondorf range Let's do this --- http://gifsoup.com/view/874243/big-boss-o.gif |
Guybrush got 23% on Vincent in 2010. If you think Vincent is a bit stronger than Ganondorf then Ganon's doing what he should. --- We are living our lives Abound with so much information |
Kotetsu534 posted... Guybrush got 23% on Vincent in 2010. If you think Vincent is a bit stronger than Ganondorf then Ganon's doing what he should. If you think Zelda's getting anti-voted like FF7 is nowadays you better be ready for some pain! --- www.dudewheresmyfreedom.com Proud to share the same beliefs as SmartMuffin |
Also,
keep in mind that Ganondorf is day oriented and Guybrush is outright
throttling him in Europe. How much more embarrassing does this get if
it's a night match? --- www.dudewheresmyfreedom.com Proud to share the same beliefs as SmartMuffin |
Karma Hunter posted... Honestly if Guybrush gets such a disproportionate amount of his power from Europe we're going to see it when they fall asleep. Max should start storming back if that's the case. The only thing that really concerning is that Max Payne is barely beating Guybrush in the US. Max Payne is doing better against Guybrush in Canada, though. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
To
be fair, Ganondorf's not that far off from what Vincent scored on him,
though I forget if that was a night match. Ganondorf's probably going to
go up a good bit too once Europe's votes slow down. On the other hand, 2010 was probably Guybrush's peak (he did worse against Bowser in a previous contest than against Vincent) and he's likely lost strength since then. At any rate, it's not a good sign if you have Mewtwo > Vincent! --- Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy II - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3557012 Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64 |
Vincent faced Guybrush in a day match. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
Trend chart from the night match: Time | Vivi | Adam | Marisa | Votes 0:05 | 54.36% | 23.15% | 22.48% | 298 1:00 | 55.45% | 22.09% | 22.46% | 5165 2:00 | 66.87% | 25.80% | 7.33% | 2593 3:00 | 61.98% | 25.26% | 12.75% | 2078 4:00 | 62.69% | 25.49% | 11.82% | 1667 5:00 | 61.84% | 25.80% | 12.35% | 1465 6:00 | 57.49% | 22.84% | 19.67% | 1388 7:00 | 52.17% | 17.45% | 30.38% | 1639 8:00 | 56.47% | 21.83% | 21.70% | 1585 9:00 | 54.92% | 18.94% | 26.14% | 1932 10:00 | 57.71% | 19.82% | 22.47% | 2154 11:00 | 55.53% | 20.81% | 23.66% | 2278 12:00 | 57.23% | 22.16% | 20.60% | 2116 Note: Subject to change X-Stats: Vivi Ornitier – 50.00% Adam Jensen – 27.74% Marisa Kirasame – 25.06% Vivi's prediction percentage was 74.33% --- http://i.imgur.com/CbfFb.jpg |
Goddamn, Payne sucks --- The official rad dude of the Pokemon X board. |
Max has been stalling Guybrush for the past 25 minutes, so that's a good thing. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
-LusterSoldier- posted... Vincent faced Guybrush in a day match. True, but he's not nearly as day oriented as Ganondorf and more importantly, FF7 is much weaker in a 12 hour setup, day or night, due to their everpresent anti-votes. Ganondorf in a 12 hour day match is gonna look as good he can possibly get... and if this is it, I don't like it! why Mewtwo --- www.dudewheresmyfreedom.com Proud to share the same beliefs as SmartMuffin |
If
you had simply asked me, I would've told you Ganondorf was a fraud and
people who thought he'd beat Vincent in 2010 were silly! Because I'm pretty sure that was part of the reasoning for Mewtwo > Vincent, right? Ganondorf > Vincent in 2010 and Ganondorf SFFing Mewtwo? --- http://i43.tinypic.com/dgwh0.gif http://www.majhost.com/gallery/atukam/OHWD/snownd.gif |
you think there was a reason for that pick huh --- www.dudewheresmyfreedom.com Proud to share the same beliefs as SmartMuffin |
Jensen vs. Marisa vs. Guybrush Threepwood vs Max Payne Who would win 1st and 2nd in this four-pack of crap? --- Drop it to the floor... |
Yoblazer laid it out! I figured you and he were on the same page since you both also believe Sore Thumb Factor is a major thing! --- http://i43.tinypic.com/dgwh0.gif http://www.majhost.com/gallery/atukam/OHWD/snownd.gif |
Making
him so generic in MP3 seems to have destroyed the character, not sad to
see him do so badly just annoyed I didn't even consider Guybrush
winning this for my expert, signs were probably there. Though Max could still do this. --- Smurf, the cream of Sonic Fanboyism. |
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3787&num=2 Vincent only finished about 1% higher than what he had at the board vote. Obviously this is a sign that Guybrush's board vote is nearly as bad as Vincent's. And even after Europe went to sleep, Vincent didn't really gain much with the SNV (0.27% over the last 6 hours). --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
Not_Wylvane posted... To be fair, Ganondorf's not that far off from what Vincent scored on him, though I forget if that was a night match. Ganondorf's probably going to go up a good bit too once Europe's votes slow down. And doing worse in a previous contest against Bowser than he did against 2010 Vincent is a sign of Guybrush being stronger why, exactly? I mean, it used to be that we were pretty sure Vincent was the #3 FF7 character, and now the people who refuse to accept change are left trying to come up with some sort of theory to combat the empirical evidence that 2010 gave us that this is no longer true. Accept it; Vincent's weaker than he used to be. And if this year's seeding is any indication, he's slipped even further into the depths of the forgotten characters. Wouldn't surprise me at all if the Guru winner for CBX (or whatever Games Contest comes after it) ends up picking Vincent for the CBXI Guru Nomination in order to rectify his "egregious" absence from CBX. --- RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed. |
LeonhartFour posted... Yoblazer laid it out! I *do* believe it's a significant thing (major is kind of stretching it), but I didn't really have much reasoning outside of "FF7's probably fallen off, the site probably loves Pokemon more, hey this seems like a thing" and bam, clicked, aw yeah awwwwww :( --- www.dudewheresmyfreedom.com Proud to share the same beliefs as SmartMuffin |
TsunamiXXVIII posted... And doing worse in a previous contest against Bowser than he did against 2010 Vincent is a sign of Guybrush being stronger why, exactly? I mean, it used to be that we were pretty sure Vincent was the #3 FF7 character, and now the people who refuse to accept change are left trying to come up with some sort of theory to combat the empirical evidence that 2010 gave us that this is no longer true. Hey, if you want to believe 2004 Bowser scores 64% on 2010 Vincent, be my guest. --- "Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?" "I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!" |
To
change topic, I'm starting to think that Master Chief may have suffered
from Generic McDude treatment a bit. I dunno, I was just trying to
think of a reason for how Chief's games can perform well in games
contest (...well only GOTD, they crapped the bed in our other two) while
he himself can't. I'm surprised that Drake and Chief both disappointing isn't getting more discussion as far as the possibility that the top quarter of the GOTD bracket is overrated in the stats. Also, how well do you think other characters from Platinum Games would fare in a character battle? My take: Jack Cayman - Hero of a cult Wii game, so already likely to be super weak. At the very least, he's probably worth around 20-25% on Zelda (using her since she faced a similar character in 2010), which is very bad. He may also suffer from Generic McDude treatment, but I doubt it. Sam Gideon - BAD fodder. Widely considered to be one of the weak points of his own game, which again didn't sell very well, though I've heard that now it has been more successful due to being downloadable from PlayStation Network now. Also very generic, and I doubt that being a power-armored character will save him there. The Wonderful 101 - These guys should get into a contest, they...I just want to see them in! I don't know why! But I just do! --- Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC |
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