Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1101

#301 | Ytterbium_70 | Posted 8/9/2013 11:03:10 PM | message detail
I seriously wonder how many copies the Touhou series actually sold (can't be more than 13 copies, right?)
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#302 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/9/2013 11:03:42 PM | message detail
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
Seriously? Pretty sure Germany wasn't even one of the countries where Marisa was winning and she's still got a very respectable percentage there.


my memory may be foggy, but I definitely remember Germany being red before the purge (with about ~60%, too!)
#303 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 8/9/2013 11:03:49 PM | message detail
So Guybrush/Max Payne. I know Payne beat Gordon Freeman once, but that was too long ago and Generic McDudes have looked terrible. Can Guybrush finally beat someone?
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#304 | Accel_R8 | Posted 8/9/2013 11:04:12 PM | message detail
Well they're fan-made games on the PC right? There's probably more people that have played illegal copies than people that actually paid for them.
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#305 | Janus5000 | Posted 8/9/2013 11:04:15 PM | message detail
Marisa was actually legit and Bacon has Jensen in second I see through all of this
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#306 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/9/2013 11:05:07 PM | message detail | (edited)
More unexpected African nations--Cameroon and Zambia--in favor of Marisa. Zambia was also there in Tifa/Cirno/Chun-Li, their first appearance of the contest...but at 100% Tifa.

I have no idea what to think of this sudden arrival of Africa.
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#307 | xp1337 | Posted 8/9/2013 11:05:48 PM | message detail
Janus5000 posted...
Marisa was actually legit and Bacon has Jensen in second I see through all of this

first draven, then missile.

this is all just part of his ploy to defeat devin morgan.
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#308 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/9/2013 11:06:57 PM | message detail
Uh-oh, it's started again. Marisa at 100% in Ireland!
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#309 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/9/2013 11:07:08 PM | message detail
huh
I'm doing pretty well on expert challenge for someone who started on match 25!
#310 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/9/2013 11:13:26 PM | message detail
http://i.imgur.com/la962YW.png

You can use that to see each character's percentage and vote totals with the stuffed votes removed.

Quick reminder:

Each data point for the vote totals and percentages represent a 6 minute update. Basic rundown here:

0.0 = 12:06 AM
0.1 = 12:12 AM
0.2 = 12:18 AM
0.3 = 12:24 AM
0.4 = 12:30 AM
0.5 = 12:36 AM
0.6 = 12:42 AM
0.7 = 12:48 AM
0.8 = 12:54 AM
0.9 = 1:00 AM
1.0 = 1:06 AM

And so on for every other data point up to 2.0 so far.
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#311 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/9/2013 11:26:28 PM | message detail
Heh.funny
I woke up,voted Jensen,saw him losing and went back to bad
Woke up again an hour later and he is suddenly 400 votes ahead

It's nice that Allen knows there is vote stuffing...but on the other hand it means that vote stuffing is possible and if someone is doing it smarter...we might not be able to catch it

Did anyone save the votes from each country to see where the stuffing came from?
#312 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/9/2013 11:28:05 PM | message detail
Allen's topic has now become a lot of fun. Lots of sniping back and forth.
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#313 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/9/2013 11:30:58 PM | message detail
You probably realized it but Cirno lost 1028 votes...
#314 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/9/2013 11:36:43 PM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
You probably realized it but Cirno lost 1028 votes...


Wait what
It was before this match even started...? oh well,nice...it gave many people the chance to change to Adam>Marisa back
#315 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/9/2013 11:50:08 PM | message detail | (edited)
BK_Sheikah00 posted...
So Guybrush/Max Payne. I know Payne beat Gordon Freeman once, but that was too long ago and Generic McDudes have looked terrible. Can Guybrush finally beat someone?


I doubt it because number one, it's GUYBRUSH, and Guybrush is turbofodder. Second, as irrelevant as Max Payne might be, he still shares his name with his game. Honestly, the only people I'd even THINK of taking Guybrush over are total stinkers like Caim, Chester, or Commander Keen (and needless to say, I VERY seriously doubt Max Payne's as weak as any of those jokers).
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#316 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/9/2013 11:50:25 PM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Nanis23 posted...
You probably realized it but Cirno lost 1028 votes...


Wait what
It was before this match even started...? oh well,nice...it gave many people the chance to change to Adam>Marisa back


Yup. Glad I did so.
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#317 | pjbasis | Posted 8/9/2013 11:51:56 PM | message detail
Guybrush would beat quite a few third placers in this contest.

Max Payne...I don't know
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#318 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/9/2013 11:56:21 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
I was completely wrong about Adam/Marisa. Good thing it's meaningless lmao.


Same here. I was dead wrong about Adam being trash. Now I gotta check out this new Deus Ex game
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#319 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/10/2013 12:05:30 AM | message detail
I guess it says a lot about how boring the rest of the round will be when most of the debatable matches are for second place, huh?
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#320 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/10/2013 12:22:27 AM | message detail
So I guess Jensen is less of a Generic McDude than most others of his kind? Because he looks cool or something?

Also, all that earlier talk about Jensen's character seriously makes me want to play his game, and I was already getting interested in the Deus Ex series.
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#321 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/10/2013 12:23:04 AM | message detail
kinsho3 posted...
ChenKenichiFan posted...
I was completely wrong about Adam/Marisa. Good thing it's meaningless lmao.


Same here. I was dead wrong about Adam being trash. Now I gotta check out this new Deus Ex game


New as in over 1.5 years old.

But coming to Wii U soon!
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#322 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 8/10/2013 12:34:29 AM | message detail
This is almost a 60-40 affair between Adam and Marisa! This reminds me of the Catherine match, which was exciting until 4chan rallied, while this one was exciting until 4chan got their stuffed votes removed.
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#323 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 8/10/2013 12:35:07 AM | message detail
Woo Vivi past 60%
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#324 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/10/2013 12:36:14 AM | message detail
I got a bad feeling about Max Payne
He wasn't strong here before MP3 and MP3 was..meh
He might be weaker than he was in 2004
But his average from 2002-2004 is about 18 in the xstats..and Guybroosh is 10 (well aside from 2010 but all the xstats for that year are stupid)
No idea what it says about 3 ways,but I think Guybroosh CAN get second
#325 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/10/2013 12:40:34 AM | message detail
I guess Max is more of a Generic McDude than Jensen?
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#326 | raytan7585 | Posted 8/10/2013 12:41:34 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
You probably realized it but Cirno lost 1028 votes...


And she still wasn't at 9%......ugh
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#327 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/10/2013 12:45:41 AM | message detail
Max is basically the anti-Nintendo option in the poll since nobody except the loyal Monkey Island fans who get him into the contest every year are voting Guybrush.
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#328 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 8/10/2013 12:46:22 AM | message detail
Jensen really does have an endearing personality that helps elevate him above McDude status

he's such a goddamn dick it's incredible. He also has minor meme status following him plus being from a game that's so cheap and easy recently plus his game is actually really good and he has a lot of "wow what a dick/badass" moments in it

Adam is closer to Drake (well, not close strength wise) than like, Agent 47.
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#329 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/10/2013 12:46:58 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
I guess Max is more of a Generic McDude than Jensen?


Max Payne is one of the first McDudes so by default he is more known than the recent McDudes
Also he shares his name with his game and looks like this
http://www.gametrailers.com/side-mission/files/2012/04/reviewmaxpayne.jpg
Who doesn't know how Max Payne looks like with his stupid face

Don't know if MP3 helps him or not..at least it's not "fat bald man" version of him from MP3...
#330 | Janus5000 | Posted 8/10/2013 12:47:42 AM | message detail
Max Payne is going to be really damn weak now, but the idea of Guybrush beating anyone hurts my mind
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#331 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 8/10/2013 12:48:31 AM | message detail
also if you didn't notice, there's Round 2/3 pic requirements up, and we're NOT getting a sprite round unless someone makes a specific sprite pic

I'll encourage all of you to head over to the Picsmith topic whenever you can to check out all the things getting posted. If you want to stop bad pics being made, you have to cut them off as fast as you can, so feel free to post whatever thoughts you have in the topic:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/66946901
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#332 | MoogleKupo141 | Posted 8/10/2013 12:48:48 AM | message detail
Guybrush is literally Guybrush. He's not beating Max.
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#333 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/10/2013 12:48:50 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Also he shares his name with his game and looks like this
http://www.gametrailers.com/side-mission/files/2012/04/reviewmaxpayne.jpg
Who doesn't know how Max Payne looks like with his stupid face


I recognize this

I don't recognize him in the match pic though.

Luckily the name itself is so memorable that the pic probably doesn't matter.
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#334 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 8/10/2013 12:53:43 AM | message detail
There's like 6 different Maxs in Max Payne 3

-Drunk, bald Max Payne with no beard
-Drunk, bald Max Payne with stupid beard
-Drunk, bald Max Payne with stupid beard and sunglasses
-Drunk, bald Max Payne with stupid beard and sunglasses and a Hawaiian shirt
-Flashback Max Payne from the first two games
-Not-Quite-Flashback Max Payne where he's juuuust a bit older

we got the juuust a bit older Max Payne. Which is good cuz we could have gotten this:

http://i.imgur.com/PvfP142.jpg
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#335 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/10/2013 12:57:58 AM | message detail
Jensen is now breaking 60% on Marisa. If this keeps up and Marisa gets more votes removed later, he could end up doubling her..
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#336 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/10/2013 1:02:15 AM | message detail
I forgot to change my Expert bracket so I lose points despite calling Marisa's failure to keep up with Jensen. Although I was wrong in a way - I didn't think she'd actually struggle to beat him while being heavily stuffed. With the stuffed votes removed, Vivi does indeed reach his highest percentage total ever. Good to see.

Round 1, Match 66

(9) Ganondorf
(10) Guybrush Threepwood
(19) Max Payne

Ganondorf should probably get a tripling on Guybrush based on Vincent's number in 2010, and Max couldn't hope to do much better than that. He might've once beaten Gordon Freeman, and he did get a big release last year, but I doubt he's held what little strength he had over the years.

I'm not going to analyse the race for second. I think if you wanted you might be able to argue Guybrush has a chance, but screw that - it's freakin' Guybrush. He ain't winning anything. Go Max.

Bracket: Ganondorf
Expert: Ganondorf > Max Payne > Guybrush Threepwood
Oracle: Ganondorf - 61%; Max Payne - 21%; Guybrush Threepwood - 18%
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#337 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/10/2013 1:03:40 AM | message detail
-Drunk, bald Max Payne with stupid beard and sunglasses and a Hawaiian shirt

Best version
#338 | SonicRaptor | Posted 8/10/2013 1:05:06 AM | message detail
Yeah, Monkey Island is no longer as talked about with those Telltale Games being a distant memory now. As well, the games were liked not so much Guybrush as a character. Max Payne is going over Guybrush no question regardless of how Ganondorf leeches either guy for whatever crazy reason.
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#339 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/10/2013 1:06:12 AM | message detail
Kotetsu534 posted...
I forgot to change my Expert bracket so I lose points despite calling Marisa's failure to keep up with Jensen. Although I was wrong in a way - I didn't think she'd actually struggle to beat him while being heavily stuffed. With the stuffed votes removed, Vivi does indeed reach his highest percentage total ever. Good to see.


I wonder..if many people will start to cry that they analyzed Cirno votes and got the idea that Marisa>Jensen SHOULD happen and they switched to Marisa>Jensen because of Cirno votes...but went to sleep so they didn't know there was vote stuffing...can they get pity points for the expert challenge?
#340 | SonicRaptor | Posted 8/10/2013 1:07:43 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
-Drunk, bald Max Payne with stupid beard and sunglasses and a Hawaiian shirt

Best version


The game even pokes fun at it with Max Payne implying he's going to get shot for the shirt first before anything else.
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#341 | Janus5000 | Posted 8/10/2013 1:10:06 AM | message detail
only getting a tripling on Guybrush would be a worse performance for Ganondorf than his loss to literally Magus
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#342 | --Smurf-- | Posted 8/10/2013 2:03:53 AM | message detail
Marisa/Adam where I expected them to be but the Cirno vote removal is not something I expected. Probably denied the chance for what could have been a very interesting match.
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#343 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/10/2013 2:52:53 AM | message detail
I know I'm late to this discussion, but as far as weakest pairing aside from Chester/Zero, it's Peacock/Viridian, guys! Did we forget the 75% Big Boss put up there?
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#344 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/10/2013 2:58:16 AM | message detail
4chan rally for Marisa spotted on /v/. It was posted at 5:08 AM. I checked out /v/ again when I saw Marisa get in a cut for the first time since votes were removed from her. The /v/ topic only has 14 posts in it, so it doesn't appear to have much of an effect here.

And as I was about to post this, that was a huge spike for Marisa on that update.
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#345 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/10/2013 3:01:17 AM | message detail
Also, since Luster already posted the revised update chart for the Tifa/Chun-Li/Cirno match, the updated X-Stats:

Tifa Lockhart – 50.00%
Chun-Li – 30.16%
Cirno – 15.59%
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#346 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/10/2013 3:08:41 AM | message detail
For this match, the actual vote totals at 12:06 AM, 1:00 AM, and 2:00 AM with the stuffed votes removed:

Time | Vivi | Jansen | Marisa | Total Votes
0:06 | 459 | 192 | 165 | 816
1:00 | 2804 | 1120 | 929 | 4853
2:00 | 4556 | 1792 | 1338 | 7686

There were actually 12 stuffed votes during the first 6 minutes of the match. For the rest of the hours, Leon can simply use the vote total data from the updater when doing his trend chart for this match.
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#347 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/10/2013 3:11:28 AM | message detail
Trend chart for the day match:

Time | Mario | Duke | Fawful | Votes
0:05 | 60.20% | 25.51% | 14.29% | 196
1:00 | 69.32% | 19.59% | 11.09% | 4870
2:00 | 67.21% | 22.44% | 10.36% | 3708
3:00 | 70.17% | 19.38% | 10.45% | 3111
4:00 | 70.05% | 18.96% | 10.99% | 2658
5:00 | 71.18% | 19.17% | 9.64% | 2561
6:00 | 69.67% | 19.78% | 10.55% | 2351
7:00 | 68.87% | 20.37% | 10.76% | 2175
8:00 | 68.57% | 21.33% | 10.10% | 1941
9:00 | 70.51% | 19.69% | 9.79% | 1767
10:00 | 69.74% | 20.14% | 10.13% | 1629
11:00 | 70.28% | 19.79% | 9.93% | 1622
12:00 | 69.54% | 20.71% | 9.75% | 1487

Mario does well in the middle. Duke does well toward the end. Fawful does "well" at the beginning.

X-Stats:

Mario – 50.00%
Duke Nukem – 22.45%
Fawful – 13.03%

Mario's prediction percentage was 92.45%
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#348 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/10/2013 3:13:32 AM | message detail
Also, I guess Bacon will get to do double duty removing votes today!
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#349 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/10/2013 3:14:25 AM | message detail
Heh

Too bad we know this doesn't matter!
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#350 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/10/2013 3:16:37 AM | message detail
West Midlands in the UK:

Vivi 1.61%
Adam Jensen 1.61%
Marisa Kirisame 96.77%

Yeah, I'd say that someone is vote stuffing again.
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