Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1100

#401 | --Smurf-- | Posted 8/9/2013 3:04:13 PM | message detail
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
--Smurf-- posted...
How often does it happen that a character gets more votes in the last hour than the first?


It really shouldn't happen. Vote totals are huge at the start of a match compared to later on; almost any character's "best" hour in raw votes should be the first. Draven's probably wasn't, because he was extremely weak for the first few hours and then caught a massive rally, but yeah, that's absolutely insane.

She got more in the tenth hour than she did in the first, too. Yeah, it definitely looks like a huge late rally, possibly even stuffing. And, yeah, that vote map looks fishy as hell. Quite a few countries that have hardly ever shown up to a match, including one that hadn't shown up at all, and they're all green...

...no, wait, that's not true. There's another country that hadn't appeared all contest, and it's at 100% for Tifa. So maybe this match just drew in people from a lot of strange corners of the world.


What was the last match that had confirmed stuffing, was there anything since Kefka/Vercetti? I wondered if the entire concept had been scrapped with such strict restrictions and anything that can bypass it (rallies, proxies) is deemed a separate IP and "ok" to use? I can't recall any instance of Allen checking votes or removing anything, I'm not sure if he monitors things at all.
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#402 | im317 | Posted 8/9/2013 3:18:47 PM | message detail
what % of Duke's vote total do you guys think was people taking him to help him finish second because they had him there in there expert brackets? i think it could have been a big factor if 2nd place was closer. i mean everyone knew Mario didn't need help to finish in 1st.
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#403 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/9/2013 3:25:15 PM | message detail
Sephiroth is my favorite character but I will too admit that he is weaker now.People anti vote him and I don't understand why.Link,Mario,Snake,Samus,Cloud beat him for sure.MM and Sonic I am not sure and he beats Crono obviously.
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#404 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/9/2013 3:32:04 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
When it comes to number 2 I feel Cloud, Mario, Snake and even Samus can all be in the discussion, regardless there won't be a clear winner and it could change over a yearly basis.


Oh how far Sephiroth has fallen. What a plummet it's been from the obvious #3 to #6 at best. And I'm not so positive he beats Mega Man 1v1 anymore.
#405 | superange128 | Posted 8/9/2013 3:33:57 PM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
charmander6000 posted...
When it comes to number 2 I feel Cloud, Mario, Snake and even Samus can all be in the discussion, regardless there won't be a clear winner and it could change over a yearly basis.


Oh how far Sephiroth has fallen. What a plummet it's been from the obvious #3 to #6 at best. And I'm not so positive he beats Mega Man 1v1 anymore.


At this point I would only take Seph over Crono and maybe Sonic
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#406 | Kibago | Posted 8/9/2013 3:36:59 PM | message detail
pjbasis posted...

Knuckles the Echidna - 1.99¢


so close, Knux...
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#407 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/9/2013 3:37:09 PM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
Sephiroth is my favorite character but I will too admit that he is weaker now.People anti vote him and I don't understand why.Link,Mario,Snake,Samus,Cloud beat him for sure.MM and Sonic I am not sure and he beats Crono obviously.


Sonic?
I don't think Sephiroth has fallen that far yet
although Mega Man now has that Smash boost....!
#408 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/9/2013 3:37:22 PM | message detail
Lose to Snake once? Time to start taking Sonic over Sephiroth wow guys
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#409 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/9/2013 3:38:37 PM | message detail
im317 posted...
what % of Duke's vote total do you guys think was people taking him to help him finish second because they had him there in there expert brackets?


There doesn't seem to be any more than 1000 people that are even still bothering with the expert challenge, if even that. Probably not many.
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#410 | Kibago | Posted 8/9/2013 3:39:02 PM | message detail
i have no idea who I would pick in MM/Sephiroth 1v1. that's the intra-N9 match I'd spend the most time thinking about.

(whereas I would know that Sonic>Seph was idiotic, I would just do it anyway)
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#411 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/9/2013 3:39:25 PM | message detail
Oh how far Sephiroth has fallen. What a plummet it's been from the obvious #3 to #6 at best. And I'm not so positive he beats Mega Man 1v1 anymore.

Sephiroth could beat some of them, it's more or less impossible for him to be second though.

I wouldn't take him over any of them though.
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#412 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/9/2013 3:42:39 PM | message detail
Honestly, how much more was Missingno rallied against Crono than Sephiroth? We haven't had a good read on Crono since 2006, really, but he was pretty impressive in 2008. I don't know that Crono's fallen as far as we think he has. Sure, he's probably not on par with the rest of the Noble Nine anymore, but I would love a heads-up match against Sephiroth to see where he stands.
#413 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/9/2013 3:44:37 PM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
Honestly, how much more was Missingno rallied against Crono than Sephiroth? We haven't had a good read on Crono since 2006, really, but he was pretty impressive in 2008. I don't know that Crono's fallen as far as we think he has. Sure, he's probably not on par with the rest of the Noble Nine anymore, but I would love a heads-up match against Sephiroth to see where he stands.


Impossible for us to derive anything from this. According to Missingno we have Sephiroth, Crono, and Yoshi all roughly on the same tier of strength.
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#414 | Janus5000 | Posted 8/9/2013 3:45:02 PM | message detail
Not sure if Mario as #2 is that reasonable. He hasn't beaten anyone of note (unless you count Mega Man but really now) since 2005, and while he hasn't looked bad, Cloud and Snake still have much, much stronger cases for it.
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#415 | Calintares | Posted 8/9/2013 3:45:08 PM | message detail
How important is that smash boost? What with being on the Wii U I don't see how it's gonna generate the kind of boost we saw with Brawl.
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#416 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/9/2013 3:53:04 PM | message detail
Calintares posted...
How important is that smash boost? What with being on the Wii U I don't see how it's gonna generate the kind of boost we saw with Brawl.


to be fair, it is on the 3DS too
on the other hand, I'll gladly take another opportunity to say lolwiiu
#417 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/9/2013 4:06:42 PM | message detail
Most people didn't buy a Wii until Smash and Galaxy came out. It's the same for the Wii U. The only reason their sales are awful is because there's not a single worthwhile game on the system.
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#418 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/9/2013 4:13:14 PM | message detail
Mario stomps his way to round two, proving Duke, insofar as he was ever worth anything, is past it. Fawful makes the double digits, which I suppose passes for an achievement when you're that weak.

Round 1, Match 65

(6) Vivi
(13) Adam Jensen
(22) Marisa Kirisame

Vivi gets a chance to lay down a stomping - something I never thought I'd say. The highest percentage he's ever reached was 56.47% against Donkey Kong in his first ever poll, but now he gets a chance to flex his miniscule muscles against Touhou and the guy from Deus Ex: Human Revolution.

Which means there's a pretty decent match for second place here, because by and large the performance of recent western characters has been truly dire, if you except the entrants from Mass Effect, Uncharted and Assassin's Creed. JC Denton, the not-so-recent original Deus Ex guy, went down with 12% against Squirtle and Ramza, getting 70/30'd by the latter. Even if he's a bit stronger, he's going to be very weak, to the extent that I'd be impressed if he managed more than the high 20s against Vivi.

Marisa's base level will be extremely low, but Touhou has shown a propensity for sustained rallying, and if Jensen can't manage to put clear water between himself and her, she'll surely make a run at closing the gap. Cirno was taking hours off Chun-Li by the end of her match, and Reimu managed to get 19% against Barret and Layton. I think, on balance, it might be too big a gap to bridge, since Vivi probably can't stomp this poll hard enough to hold both of them to, say, sub-5k votes.

Not to say I'd be surprised at all if Marisa won, though.

Bracket: Vivi
Expert: Vivi > Jensen > Marisa
Oracle: Vivi - 60.5% - Adam Jensen - 22.5%; Marisa - 17%
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#419 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 8/9/2013 4:14:44 PM | message detail
Deus Ex HR was free on PS+ all last month! Adam has RECENCY
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#420 | A-Toaster | Posted 8/9/2013 4:16:10 PM | message detail
*makes toast for stats guys*
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#421 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 8/9/2013 4:16:50 PM | message detail
hey my toast has a picture of link burned into it

it's a sign
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#422 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/9/2013 4:19:48 PM | message detail
Actually, changed my mind. Jensen is probably weak enough to lose to Marisa. Going with that. Not sure it's even an upset at this point.
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#423 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/9/2013 4:20:00 PM | message detail
Looks like Link is toast
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#424 | --Smurf-- | Posted 8/9/2013 4:37:06 PM | message detail
It was about ~5:00 before Cirno started doing anything, how many votes do people think Marisa will be behind Adam at that stage and whats the limit where Adam would be safe? I'm thinking if it gets close Marisa has it, Cirno was winning hours over Chun Li at the end of her poll and Reimu looked very strong at the beginning of her so it seems like an especially strong time for touhou rallying.

Probably going to no pick on this, expecting a recent western character to be strong or picking a character who I expect to be 1000 down in the morning both seem equally ludicrous.
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#425 | --Smurf-- | Posted 8/9/2013 4:39:00 PM | message detail
ZenOfThunder posted...
Deus Ex HR was free on PS+ all last month! Adam has RECENCY


was like €2 in the steam sale as well, they've been giving it away.
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#426 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/9/2013 4:50:03 PM | message detail
So that 15% for Yuna was the lowest ever in Round 1 and I got that right!Nice.
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#427 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/9/2013 5:00:22 PM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Most people didn't buy a Wii until Smash and Galaxy came out. It's the same for the Wii U. The only reason their sales are awful is because there's not a single worthwhile game on the system.


Uh, the Wii already had 50% ownership on GameFAQs before Galaxy even came out.
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#428 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/9/2013 5:04:35 PM | message detail
Sonic or Megaman over Sephiroth? Okay, this topic has officially lost it. All this stuff based on long-term declines/gains based on pure speculation is ridiculous.
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#429 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/9/2013 5:05:55 PM | message detail
--Smurf-- posted...
It was about ~5:00 before Cirno started doing anything, how many votes do people think Marisa will be behind Adam at that stage and whats the limit where Adam would be safe? I'm thinking if it gets close Marisa has it, Cirno was winning hours over Chun Li at the end of her poll and Reimu looked very strong at the beginning of her so it seems like an especially strong time for touhou rallying.

Probably going to no pick on this, expecting a recent western character to be strong or picking a character who I expect to be 1000 down in the morning both seem equally ludicrous.


I can't blame you - this looks like a snakebite waiting to happen either way.
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#430 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/9/2013 5:07:33 PM | message detail
--Smurf-- posted...
It was about ~5:00 before Cirno started doing anything, how many votes do people think Marisa will be behind Adam at that stage and whats the limit where Adam would be safe? I'm thinking if it gets close Marisa has it, Cirno was winning hours over Chun Li at the end of her poll and Reimu looked very strong at the beginning of her so it seems like an especially strong time for touhou rallying.


I think a 2000 vote lead would make Adam safe, which doesn't seem likely when you have Vivi potentially hogging up around 60% of the vote, or even more than that. For Tifa to end up with exactly 63.00%, you would have to remove 1535 votes from Cirno. So we're probably looking at 1500-1600 rallied votes for Cirno.
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#431 | Xcarvenger | Posted 8/9/2013 5:10:49 PM | message detail
Looks like 1028 votes have been removed from Cirno.
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#432 | Sorozone | Posted 8/9/2013 5:14:03 PM | message detail
#433 | Denzokuken | Posted 8/9/2013 5:14:07 PM | message detail
That's it changing my pick back to Jensen!
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#434 | LOLContests | Posted 8/9/2013 5:15:02 PM | message detail | (edited)
Xcarvenger posted...
Looks like 1028 votes have been removed from Cirno.


Looks like they were the British ones looking at Geolocation. Cirno went from having 39% of the vote there to 7%. In the South East region, which she previously won, she is listed as having 0%. She's still winning in the West Midlands though.
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#435 | Masato_Tanaka | Posted 8/9/2013 5:16:19 PM | message detail
LOLContests posted...
Xcarvenger posted...
Looks like 1028 votes have been removed from Cirno.


Looks like they were the British ones looking at Geolocation. Cirno went from having 39% of the vote there to 7%. In the South East region, which she previously won, she is listed as having 0%. She's still winning in the West Midlands though.


Is Cirno the first character to get a big rally here since the Draven match? (I wasn't really here for that match, but I'm assuming rally votes for him were a big deal)
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#436 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/9/2013 5:17:02 PM | message detail
LOLContests posted...
Looks like they were the British ones looking at Geolocation. Cirno went from having 39% of the vote there to 7%. In the South East region, which she previously won, she is listed as having 0%. She's still winning in the West Midlands though.


A large number of votes were also removed from Ireland and the North West region of England.
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#437 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/9/2013 5:17:17 PM | message detail
Touhou rallies....

I never asked for this
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#438 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/9/2013 5:17:40 PM | message detail
Good show.
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#439 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/9/2013 5:17:40 PM | message detail
Damn it, I'll have to redo my paper copy of official match results for the last nine matches.

At least SBAllen is looking.
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Points: 49/62 Today's Picks: Tifa and Mario
#440 | Masato_Tanaka | Posted 8/9/2013 5:18:09 PM | message detail
Also, what do you guys make of Dragonborn's match? Pretty much made expectations? Underperformed?
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#441 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/9/2013 5:20:47 PM | message detail
Nobody's taking him to upset Tifa that's for sure
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#442 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/9/2013 5:20:51 PM | message detail
Also, what do you guys make of Dragonborn's match? Pretty much made expectations? Underperformed?

Underperformed to most people's expectations.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 49/62 Today's Picks: Tifa and Mario
#443 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/9/2013 5:23:13 PM | message detail | (edited)
I just triggered a poll update for the previous match:

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=5205&num=3

However, because of the way creativename's updater sorts the poll updates, you will see an 8:15 PM update in between the 11:33 AM and 11:38 AM update. I do think creativename should change his updater so it uses the "time" as the default sorting method.
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#444 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/9/2013 5:23:00 PM | message detail
That definitely makes me more wary of picking Marisa. He's going to be watching her like a hawk now.
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#445 | Masato_Tanaka | Posted 8/9/2013 5:23:08 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Also, what do you guys make of Dragonborn's match? Pretty much made expectations? Underperformed?

Underperformed to most people's expectations.


I really wanted him to at least double his competition, but honestly, I'd say my expectations for him were about met. I just hope he comes out looking ok next round. If he can get AT LEAST 20-24%, I'll be satisfied with rallying for him so much.
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#446 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/9/2013 5:25:15 PM | message detail
Wow, Bacon actually took action. I'm surprised.

Maybe he only did so because those 1000 votes don't matter =/
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#447 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/9/2013 5:25:58 PM | message detail
Masato_Tanaka posted...
Also, what do you guys make of Dragonborn's match? Pretty much made expectations? Underperformed?


Underperformed - his opponents were PYRAMID HEAD and a frigging Animal Crossing character.
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#448 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/9/2013 5:34:08 PM | message detail
Kotetsu534 posted...
Mario stomps his way to round two, proving Duke, insofar as he was ever worth anything, is past it. Fawful makes the double digits, which I suppose passes for an achievement when you're that weak.

Round 1, Match 65

(6) Vivi
(13) Adam Jensen
(22) Marisa Kirisame

Vivi gets a chance to lay down a stomping - something I never thought I'd say. The highest percentage he's ever reached was 56.47% against Donkey Kong in his first ever poll, but now he gets a chance to flex his miniscule muscles against Touhou and the guy from Deus Ex: Human Revolution.

Which means there's a pretty decent match for second place here, because by and large the performance of recent western characters has been truly dire, if you except the entrants from Mass Effect, Uncharted and Assassin's Creed. JC Denton, the not-so-recent original Deus Ex guy, went down with 12% against Squirtle and Ramza, getting 70/30'd by the latter. Even if he's a bit stronger, he's going to be very weak, to the extent that I'd be impressed if he managed more than the high 20s against Vivi.

Marisa's base level will be extremely low, but Touhou has shown a propensity for sustained rallying, and if Jensen can't manage to put clear water between himself and her, she'll surely make a run at closing the gap. Cirno was taking hours off Chun-Li by the end of her match, and Reimu managed to get 19% against Barret and Layton. I think, on balance, it might be too big a gap to bridge, since Vivi probably can't stomp this poll hard enough to hold both of them to, say, sub-5k votes.

Not to say I'd be surprised at all if Marisa won, though.

Bracket: Vivi
Expert: Vivi > Jensen > Marisa
Oracle: Vivi - 60.5% - Adam Jensen - 22.5%; Marisa - 17%


...Right. Okay, thanks for reassuring me of my Marisa > Adam pick.
70-30'd by Ramza. And given that "recency" is generally more of a curse than a blessing and it's not even a numbered sequel...yeah. Can't see the guy from this decade being anywhere near as strong as the protagonist of the original game in the series. Who went out with a mere 12% against a duo I wouldn't trust to hold Vivi under 45%. Seriously, even with the LFF possibility, Ramza's been so weak in the past that I'd probably still take Vivi in a Vivi/Squirtle/Ramza match.
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#449 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/9/2013 5:41:30 PM | message detail
Here are the before and after results for several different countries:

Ireland:

Tifa Lockheart 20.43%
Cirno 67.2%
Chun-Li 12.37%

Tifa Lockheart 43.18%
Cirno 30.68%
Chun-Li 26.14%

The UK:

Tifa Lockheart 43%
Cirno 39.08%
Chun-Li 17.92%

Tifa Lockheart 65.5%
Cirno 7.2%
Chun-Li 27.29%

Those were the only 2 countries where votes were removed. Strangely enough, no votes were removed from China. Before the votes were removed, there were 186 votes from Ireland. Now there are only 88 votes from Ireland. So a total of 98 votes were removed from Ireland.
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#450 | xp1337 | Posted 8/9/2013 5:58:33 PM | message detail
Votes were actually removed? Huh. Now, I have to wonder and rethink about Marisa. I'm probably going to stay on that, but I really did not see that type of action coming.
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