GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1100
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...you
all realize in like a 24 hour match Sephiroth is probably worth
something, like, 48% on Snake right? Making 24 hour adjustments for
Snake/Sephiroth and Cloud/Samus puts him almost exactly equal to Samus. --- www.dudewheresmyfreedom.com Proud to share the same beliefs as SmartMuffin |
red sox 777 posted... Uh, I don't think Cloud could put up those kinds of numbers on Mega Man these days. Snake couldn't get close. You have to write off that match as a lot of SFF. It's like Mario/Samus. Mario's never going to lose to anything related to Nintendo except Link, and he's never going to come close to Link. ...Mario put 58% up on Mega Man. Snake put up 55% back in 2006. Snake's boosted like crazy since 2006, why is this impossible again? --- www.dudewheresmyfreedom.com Proud to share the same beliefs as SmartMuffin |
With
regards to Mario/Sephiroth, what I'm really worried about there is Seph
continuing to fall off a cliff. Put him against Cloud or Snake for a
more sure victory. Or Crono to maximize Mario's embarrassment, as Crono
matches up particularly well against Mario, though he won't win. He'll
put up a number that surprises people here, that he couldn't put up on
Cloud or Snake.....or Samus. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
Yes, let's keep using old stats to back up our arguments. By the way, based on 2004 results Crash Bandicoot would score 40% on Link. --- Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy II - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3557012 Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64 |
2006 was probably Mega Man's worst year. Mega Man 2010 had some very impressive performances before facing Mario. And most of Snake's boost was from 2005 to 2006. He probably hasn't boosted at all since 2008. Most of the reason he's gotten closer and closer to contest victory in recent years is that Clinkeroth has fallen badly. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
I
wouldn't take Mario over Sephiroth to be honest. I am aware that Cloud
and Sephiroth are possibly weaker this year but something tells me
Sephiroth would just whoop Mario's ass pretty easily should they meet up
again. --- Zinsanity of the Helix Board |
...you
all realize in like a 24 hour match Sephiroth is probably worth
something, like, 48% on Snake right? Making 24 hour adjustments for
Snake/Sephiroth and Cloud/Samus puts him almost exactly equal to Samus. Equal in 2010. After 3 more years.......I wouldn't feel good with Sephiroth over Samus. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
--Smurf-- posted... pjbasis posted...He's definitely better than JC, but how much? Me neither. But it's not like Deus Ex: Human Revolution is the pinnacle of popularity as far as recent games go. It wasn't even particularly high-profile, at least in comparison to the likes of Skyrim, Arkham City, Portal 2, and even possibly Skyward Sword and Mortal Kombat. And that's just within 2011 (2012...didn't really have any high-profile games, did it?). --- Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC |
red sox 777 posted... ...you all realize in like a 24 hour match Sephiroth is probably worth something, like, 48% on Snake right? Making 24 hour adjustments for Snake/Sephiroth and Cloud/Samus puts him almost exactly equal to Samus. Samus hasn't really had a great 3 years either, in all fairness. --- "What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!" This is Yesmar. |
I was wondering how we got so many posts about Mario/Duke/Fawful! I'd take Cloud to beat Mario because it'd be an underdog pick at this point. Don't know who would win exactly, but I do think calling Mario the #2 dude on this site is a bit premature. And it'll continue to be premature because of this HORRIBLE BRACKET SETUP argh --- http://i.imgur.com/kCpvD.gif |
KamikazePotato posted... People like Jensen! And Human Revolution was very well-received. I think you guys are underestimating how it would do on GameFAQs. This site takes to console WRPGs pretty well. Human Revolution lost to both Battlefield 3 and Modern Warfare 3 in the GOTY polls. Yes, on this site. Just let that sink in for a moment. --- Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC |
red sox 777 posted... 2006 was probably Mega Man's worst year. Mega Man 2010 had some very impressive performances before facing Mario. Putting aside MM/Ryu H (a clearly fraudulent affair), Mega Man's best victory in 2010 is snagging 62% on Zack. Which... really doesn't look that good right now. Much more importantly, Snake's boosted a ton since 2006. People are overrating how much he boosted in 2006 to begin with (projected to get 48% on MM to 55% on MM, when you just said MM had weakened in 2006), and he got Brawl's actual release and MGS4 since then. ...we're talking about a guy who barely beat Sephiroth in 2006 while Cloud was in the poll (and barely cracked 40% on Cloud in that same match, with Sephiroth killing him) to someone who outright beat Sephiroth 1v1 and put up 48% on Cloud. I don't care how much you think FF7's fallen, most of that goes outright to Snake. --- www.dudewheresmyfreedom.com Proud to share the same beliefs as SmartMuffin |
--Smurf-- posted... KamikazePotato posted...Jensen would do much, much better than JC Denton. Jensen has a better design, Jensen is significantly more like by everyone who's played the games, and Human Revolution is going to have a significantly higher playrate than a 10+ year old PC game. They're not comparable. Jensen appears on the cover of his game so he'd be recognizable...if his game were all that popular or high-profile, that is. It isn't. Jensen will be terrible fodder, people. Sad but true. --- Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC |
LeonhartFour posted... I was wondering how we got so many posts about Mario/Duke/Fawful! when Mario breaks 60% on Samus and Mega Man/Charizard combined that'll show you :P (this is not serious) |
LeonhartFour posted... And it'll continue to be premature because of this HORRIBLE BRACKET SETUP argh This. I don't get why we're arguing about this since Mario's going to be buried by Link SFF for yet another f***ing contest. --- Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy II - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3557012 Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64 |
Also, Sephiroth is to Mario what Mario is to Samus. KRYPTONITE I still love the fact that after Mario wrecked the 2005 contest for 2 months and Sephiroth had come off of two lackluster Villains Contest performances against Bowser and Ganondorf and hadn't been in the contest, he still beat Mario effortlessly. Mario won two updates in 24 hours! Two! --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v516/Sensui22/1248835958206.png |
Both of those games are five years old by this point. They can't sustain Snake forever. --- "What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!" This is Yesmar. |
LOLContests posted... Both of those games are five years old by this point. They can't sustain Snake forever. That's why Kojima keeps porting MGS every six months! He's a big fan of these contests. 99% of the votes we get from Japan come from him. --- http://img.imgcake.com/leonhjpguz.jpg |
I've
been estimating post-2008 Snake at around 53-54% on 2006 Snake. With a
roughly constant Samus, that lines up very well with the 2010 results. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
LOLContests posted...
They were two years old by the 2010 contest, which is what we're discussing. Snake has MGSV on the way if you want to talk about future relevancy (and, yes, it is going to boost him). --- www.dudewheresmyfreedom.com Proud to share the same beliefs as SmartMuffin |
Although if Squall actually gets by Missingno, we might be able to get a decent read on Mario. Then again, you're probably going to have either Red or Cecil in that match, too, so it could screw with the numbers. --- http://gifsoup.com/view/874243/big-boss-o.gif |
62%
on Zack was very impressive at the time. It depends on which Zack was
in 2010: the one we saw from 2008 or the one we saw this year. Probably
somewhere in between, I'd guess closer to 2008. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
I have Red and Squall going to R3. BELIEVE though I feel pretty great about Red making it to R3 at least. --- http://myanimelist.net/animelist/swordz9 |
The thing is, I'm only using that Mario/Mega Man number as an absolute
maximum, anyway. It's extremely likely that Mario's worth much less on
Mega Man indirectly. These are just the gauges we have to use, because
all of Mario's matches every year seem to get polluted with SFF. --- www.dudewheresmyfreedom.com Proud to share the same beliefs as SmartMuffin |
Chart from the night match: Time | Tifa | Cirno | Chun-Li | Votes 0:05 | 59.31% | 10.73% | 29.96% | 494 1:00 | 62.10% | 9.66% | 28.24% | 5375 2:00 | 63.29% | 8.95% | 27.77% | 3018 3:00 | 62.88% | 10.85% | 26.27% | 2341 4:00 | 61.04% | 11.69% | 27.27% | 2002 5:00 | 63.38% | 10.30% | 26.33% | 1622 6:00 | 59.42% | 16.01% | 24.57% | 1555 7:00 | 58.19% | 18.88% | 22.93% | 1801 8:00 | 59.33% | 15.08% | 25.59% | 2036 9:00 | 60.97% | 14.29% | 24.74% | 2134 10:00 | 54.65% | 24.02% | 21.33% | 2494 11:00 | 57.99% | 15.26% | 26.75% | 2340 12:00 | 50.49% | 26.20% | 23.31% | 2450 Most pointless rally ever. X-Stats: Tifa Lockhart – 50.00% Chun-Li – 30.16% Cirno – 19.60% Tifa's prediction percentage was 76.80% --- http://www.miscupload.com/upload/452457071929141623517416.gif |
How often does it happen that a character gets more votes in the last hour than the first? --- Smurf, the cream of Sonic Fanboyism. |
swordz9 posted... I have Red and Squall going to R3. BELIEVE though I feel pretty great about Red making it to R3 at least. Red getting to Round 3 should be pretty much a lock now, after seeing Blue go beast. --- Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC |
Here is where I would place the Noble Nine on the X-Stats, given what I've seen so far in the contest: Link - Max 46* Cloud - 41 Snake - 38 Mario - 37 Sephiroth - 37 Mega Man - 36 Samus - 35/34 Sonic - 33/32 Crono - 30 *IIf FFVII's bubble has burst part of me wonders if OoT's has as well. The two games are only a year apart after all. If so, I have no ****ing clue where Link ends up. Could be interesting. I'll need more results in R2 though, to see if I think the bubble truly has burst. --- "What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!" This is Yesmar. |
Red going to R3 isn't at all assured if Cecil can prove to be worthwhile. A match of Wario/Red/Cecil is very favorable to Cecil. Red will have to be quite a bit stronger. --- www.dudewheresmyfreedom.com Proud to share the same beliefs as SmartMuffin |
Jeez.. when's the next interesting match? as in there is uncertainty in who comes in first? Wario/Creeper? |
Potentially Wario/Creeper. Probably not until Pit/Cecil at the end of the division though. Division 8 is all about round 2. --- http://images.cheezburger.com/completestore/2011/8/22/2094c2de-bae8-4f5b-9f27-67eaff0aaeaf.jpg |
Cirno finished at 39% in Britain Someone who can phrase it well should probably ask Bacon about this. It didn't change the result, but the stuffing there is extremely obvious. It would be really nice to know for Vivi/Jensen/Marisa if he plans to do anything about if it happens again there, because it might matter in that match. --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] |
Karma Hunter posted... Red going to R3 isn't at all assured if Cecil can prove to be worthwhile. A match of Wario/Red/Cecil is very favorable to Cecil. Red will have to be quite a bit stronger. I can't see Cecil being on Fox's level. --- Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC |
Cecil
scored 48% on Knuckles in a day match. His potential at this point
can't be denied, I think. If he goes out and absolutely thrashes Pit I'd
be inclined to call him the favorite in such a setup - Pokemon is just
as vulnerable to fanbase splits as anyone, just ask Pikachu nearly
losing to Alucard. --- www.dudewheresmyfreedom.com Proud to share the same beliefs as SmartMuffin |
I
also have Cecil losing to Pit, but even if he wins I feel like Red
would beat him. I'm not basing it on stats, but so long as Red gets an
RBY image for R2 I think he wins. --- http://myanimelist.net/animelist/swordz9 |
None
of the new MGS games after MGS4 have included Snake though, they've all
been Big Boss, and the ones in the making atm are also Big Boss Games. BTW, where do you peg Big Boss when he gets his best pictures? He had a godlike performance against Kirby and he's been respectable in his matches since. --- Ours is not to reason why, ours is but to do and die. |
Also.. upon reading the Mario/Sephiroth talk.. give me Mario! new gamefaqs, less votals, fall of ff7.. leggo |
Calintares posted... None of the new MGS games after MGS4 have included Snake though, they've all been Big Boss, and the ones in the making atm are also Big Boss Games. MGS3 did not include Solid Snake. He boosted from it anyway. It turns out, when you have games starring a guy that looks exactly like Snake and where he is exclusively called Snake the entire game, Snake tends to benefit from them! --- www.dudewheresmyfreedom.com Proud to share the same beliefs as SmartMuffin |
The vote totals generally have little impact on strength. Not sure why people keep mentioning this after all this time! --- http://gifsoup.com/view/477513/red-vs-blue-road-rage-part-1-o.gif http://gifsoup.com/view/477534/red-vs-blue-road-rage-part-2-o.gif |
Yeah,
those Cirno numbers are definitely sketchy. Not only was she so high in
England, she's only that high in 2 or 3 specific regions (North West,
West Midlands, and South East) --- "What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!" This is Yesmar. |
Karma Hunter posted... Calintares posted...None of the new MGS games after MGS4 have included Snake though, they've all been Big Boss, and the ones in the making atm are also Big Boss Games. Not saying Snake didn't benefit, but if anyone has a reason to boost a lot the last few years, it's Big Boss. --- Ours is not to reason why, ours is but to do and die. |
Calintares posted... Karma Hunter posted...Calintares posted...None of the new MGS games after MGS4 have included Snake though, they've all been Big Boss, and the ones in the making atm are also Big Boss Games. Well, yeah. Luigi's gonna get the s*** CQC'd out of him assuming BB doesn't get pic sabotaged. Edit: heck, even then he's not safe --- www.dudewheresmyfreedom.com Proud to share the same beliefs as SmartMuffin |
Luigi
beats Big Boss under normal circumstances, Ness might hold him back,
but I still think he makes that lose enough to pull through. --- tune in tokyo 142.94 |
Boss gonna beat Luigi/Ness combined just like he did Kirby/Lucas, you heard it here first --- www.dudewheresmyfreedom.com Proud to share the same beliefs as SmartMuffin |
Also,
given the recent discussion, I'd also feel pretty good about picking
Mario over Cloud for the number two spot. There aren't any real direct
comparisons to get there, and it'd probably be super close 1v1, but
given how things are these days, I'd feel as good as you could in such a
close match going with Mario. Think we're at that point now. --- tune in tokyo 142.94 |
Mario
might beat Cloud today, but I would've been pretty confident of Cloud
holding him off in 2010. 74% on Ike with SFF vs. 70% on Falcon? 62% on
Big Boss vs. 66% on Ryu? 52%+ on Samus vs. 58% on Mega Man with SFF? I
like Cloud's side of those comparisons more, and it would only get
better for him over 24 hours (see him getting 46.5% on Link heads up). --- We are living our lives Abound with so much information |
--Smurf-- posted... How often does it happen that a character gets more votes in the last hour than the first? It really shouldn't happen. Vote totals are huge at the start of a match compared to later on; almost any character's "best" hour in raw votes should be the first. Draven's probably wasn't, because he was extremely weak for the first few hours and then caught a massive rally, but yeah, that's absolutely insane. She got more in the tenth hour than she did in the first, too. Yeah, it definitely looks like a huge late rally, possibly even stuffing. And, yeah, that vote map looks fishy as hell. Quite a few countries that have hardly ever shown up to a match, including one that hadn't shown up at all, and they're all green... ...no, wait, that's not true. There's another country that hadn't appeared all contest, and it's at 100% for Tifa. So maybe this match just drew in people from a lot of strange corners of the world. --- RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed. |
When
it comes to number 2 I feel Cloud, Mario, Snake and even Samus can all
be in the discussion, regardless there won't be a clear winner and it
could change over a yearly basis. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 49/62 Today's Picks: Tifa and Mario |
Division VII Chester stats Samus Aran - 5.42¢ Isaac Clarke - 1.00¢ Sandbag - 1.49¢ Neku Sakuraba - 1.70¢ Vaas Montenegro - 1.00¢ Catherine - 1.79¢ Knuckles the Echidna - 1.99¢ Seifer Almasy - 1.00¢ Celes Chere - 1.32¢ Ezio Auditore da Firenze - 1.95¢ Miles "Tails" Prower - 1.34¢ Bomberman - 1.00¢ Auron - 2.12¢ Revolver Ocelot - 1.53¢ Roxas - 1.00¢ L-Block - 4.88¢ Teemo - 1.00¢ Palutena - 2.16¢ Dragonborn - 1.52¢ Tom Nook - 1.07¢ Pyramid Head - 1.00¢ Master Chief - 1.41¢ Yuna - 1.64¢ Claire Redfield - 1.00¢ Tifa Lockheart - 4.10¢ Cirno - 1.00¢ Chun-Li - 1.77¢ --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0 |
LeonhartFour posted... The vote totals generally have little impact on strength. Not sure why people keep mentioning this after all this time! Well when people say this I assume they mean a shift in the userbase of the site, not really the votals themselves. For example, if most of the people that left were people that tended to vote casual then it will impact strength. --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0 |
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