Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1100

#251 | --Smurf-- | Posted 8/9/2013 10:58:22 AM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
I think you guys should have more faith in Jensen. He has a more distinctive design than the average McDude, and Deus Ex was a well-selling, well-received console game with RPG elements on GameFAQs. He won't amount to much but these talks of him easily losing to a Touhou are pretty surprising to me.


I think people are knee-jerking a bit with the whole western character business. Most of the western characters bombing are genuinely awful characters designed with the same stock approach to appeal to male teens. Drake is a good example of a western male character designed well and not in that approach and he's done fine, I don't buy that there's an inherent dislike of western males. There's just an abnormally high proportion of awful ones around.
I don't know anything about Jensen but his appearance is much more like the Matrix, Sci-Fi kind of look then a typical dude McBro, People might be burned by this one, I'd still have him as the favourite with high upset potential.
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#252 | Lopen | Posted 8/9/2013 10:58:33 AM | message detail
To put it in perspective Max Payne's projected to score 70% on any version of Guybrush aside from 2k10 who I refuse to use as I think he was overrated by virtue of facing Vincent r1.

Dude could fall as hard as Vercetti did and still win without issue.
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#253 | Masato_Tanaka | Posted 8/9/2013 10:59:24 AM | message detail
wtf is that first image post
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#254 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/9/2013 11:00:07 AM | message detail
JC Denton was crushed by Squirtle, I don't think Jensen does too much better.
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#255 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/9/2013 11:00:29 AM | message detail
Masato_Tanaka posted...
wtf is that first image post


Whose post are you talking about there?
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#256 | Masato_Tanaka | Posted 8/9/2013 11:00:58 AM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
Masato_Tanaka posted...
wtf is that first image post


Whose post are you talking about there?


ulti's bike haha
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#257 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/9/2013 11:02:58 AM | message detail
So that 15% prediction for Yuna is that the lowest in round 1?Or did Missigno or Charizard had less?
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#258 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/9/2013 11:03:06 AM | message detail
Jensen would do much, much better than JC Denton. Jensen has a better design, Jensen is significantly more like by everyone who's played the games, and Human Revolution is going to have a significantly higher playrate than a 10+ year old PC game. They're not comparable.
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#259 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/9/2013 11:09:03 AM | message detail
What does this match have to do with Charizard? Using this match to calculate how much Zard would score on Mario is dumb
He faced Mario IN THE SAME YEAR
Duke can be weaker by all we know,this says nothing
#260 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/9/2013 11:09:21 AM | message detail
What KP said. There's no reason for Adam to be weaker than JC except people not playing games here. He has a cooler design, he's more central to his game, DX:HR was loved by everybody (a doubly laudable thing considering it was a follow-up to one of the best and best loved games ever) and he generally has every reason to impress compared to him. I'm the biggest Marisa fan on the board and I still think Jensen takes it easy.
#261 | --Smurf-- | Posted 8/9/2013 11:09:25 AM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
Jensen would do much, much better than JC Denton. Jensen has a better design, Jensen is significantly more like by everyone who's played the games, and Human Revolution is going to have a significantly higher playrate than a 10+ year old PC game. They're not comparable.


I don't think playrate will matter with a black mage in the poll, there's already somebody there to suck up the "I don't really care about anyone here but want to vote for someone" kind of crowd. He'll need to actually be liked and not just be a recognisable face in a game that was kind of alright.
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#262 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/9/2013 11:10:04 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
What does this match have to do with Charizard? Using this match to calculate how much Zard would score on Mario is dumb
He faced Mario IN THE SAME YEAR
Duke can be weaker by all we know,this says nothing


We know Charizard's Mario strength is fake as hell. This match helps place a floor on what he's actually worth on a Noble Niner.
#263 | pjbasis | Posted 8/9/2013 11:10:07 AM | message detail
He's definitely better than JC, but how much?

Touhou would flatten JC
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#264 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/9/2013 11:10:34 AM | message detail
People like Jensen! And Human Revolution was very well-received. I think you guys are underestimating how it would do on GameFAQs. This site takes to console WRPGs pretty well.
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#265 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/9/2013 11:12:12 AM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Nanis23 posted...
What does this match have to do with Charizard? Using this match to calculate how much Zard would score on Mario is dumb
He faced Mario IN THE SAME YEAR
Duke can be weaker by all we know,this says nothing


We know Charizard's Mario strength is fake as hell. This match helps place a floor on what he's actually worth on a Noble Niner.


Because of HGSS release a few days before the match...?
Hype and game release is a part of a character strength
That was no "fake" strength
#266 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/9/2013 11:13:36 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
What does this match have to do with Charizard? Using this match to calculate how much Zard would score on Mario is dumb
He faced Mario IN THE SAME YEAR
Duke can be weaker by all we know,this says nothing


Everybody who went through Charizard that we've seen so far has underperformed like crazy. Either you assume they've all deboosted (a... possibility, I guess?), or we have to assume that Charizard is fraudulent.
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#267 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/9/2013 11:14:57 AM | message detail
marisa/adam for 2nd
missingno/tidus for 1st
creeper/wario for 1st
sissel/corvo for 2nd
pit/cecil for 1st
mega man / magikarp for 1st
travis / recette for 2nd
red bird / mike haggar for 2nd
kratos aurion / boko for 2nd
Lenneth / Claptrap for 2nd
? Block / Rikku for 2nd
John Marston / Sackboy for 2nd
Lightning / Donkey Kong for 1st


Misno should roflstomp Tidus, don't think that's debateable at all
Wario should beat Creeper easily based on Steve
Mega Man is going to anihilate Magikarp. Not sure who's debating otherwise
Travis should crush Recette
I'd say Jill/Red Bird is wayyyyyyyyyyy more debateable than Haggar/Bird
Sackboy should crush Marston too

Rest of the round is pretty boring, pretty much the only matchups worth watching are Pit/Cecil and ?/Rikku
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#268 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/9/2013 11:15:17 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Nanis23 posted...
What does this match have to do with Charizard? Using this match to calculate how much Zard would score on Mario is dumb
He faced Mario IN THE SAME YEAR
Duke can be weaker by all we know,this says nothing


We know Charizard's Mario strength is fake as hell. This match helps place a floor on what he's actually worth on a Noble Niner.


Because of HGSS release a few days before the match...?
Hype and game release is a part of a character strength
That was no "fake" strength


It's fake relative to what his strength would normally be. It's like concluding Cloud was weaker than Crono in 2002. SMS messed things up.
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#269 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/9/2013 11:17:40 AM | message detail
I mean unless people think that boost wasn't temporary! If they do they should easily have Charizard in the finals.
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#270 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/9/2013 11:18:45 AM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
marisa/adam for 2nd
missingno/tidus for 1st
creeper/wario for 1st
sissel/corvo for 2nd
pit/cecil for 1st
mega man / magikarp for 1st
travis / recette for 2nd
red bird / mike haggar for 2nd
kratos aurion / boko for 2nd
Lenneth / Claptrap for 2nd
? Block / Rikku for 2nd
John Marston / Sackboy for 2nd
Lightning / Donkey Kong for 1st


Misno should roflstomp Tidus, don't think that's debateable at all
Wario should beat Creeper easily based on Steve
Mega Man is going to anihilate Magikarp. Not sure who's debating otherwise
Travis should crush Recette
I'd say Jill/Red Bird is wayyyyyyyyyyy more debateable than Haggar/Bird
Sackboy should crush Marston too

Rest of the round is pretty boring, pretty much the only matchups worth watching are Pit/Cecil and ?/Rikku

Magikarp vote-in poll is a throwback to Missingno vote-in poll
If Magikarp is anything like Missingno he can beat Megaman
Unfortunatly I believe MM is the best anti-joke material now (yes even more than Mario)
#271 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/9/2013 11:21:34 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
I mean unless people think that boost wasn't temporary! If they do they should easily have Charizard in the finals.


I don't think that was temporary
Pokemon has gotten stronger in the last few years
I don't know the cause,maybe it was BW maybe it was HGSS or maybe because lower votals

Pokemon has gotten stronger is a fact..how big is a difference between post HGSS and during HGSS release? I dunno,but Charizard should be stronger than he was before HGSS release and that's what's important
#272 | --Smurf-- | Posted 8/9/2013 11:22:05 AM | message detail
pjbasis posted...
He's definitely better than JC, but how much?

Touhou would flatten JC


It's still a novelty to me that a touhou versus a popular hero in a recent AAA title is being so hotly debated. Never would have expected this at the start of the contest.
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#273 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/9/2013 11:23:44 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
I mean unless people think that boost wasn't temporary! If they do they should easily have Charizard in the finals.


I don't think that was temporary
Pokemon has gotten stronger in the last few years
I don't know the cause,maybe it was BW maybe it was HGSS or maybe because lower votals

Pokemon has gotten stronger is a fact..how big is a difference between post HGSS and during HGSS release? I dunno,but Charizard should be stronger than he was before HGSS release and that's what's important


How much stronger? The levels of strength you're talking about are... untenable. He's almost certainly closer to his floor now than his ceiling.

Like, if he's anything close to what he ended at on Mario the plumber has no chance. He's going to get shot in the back by Samus and lose in spectacular fashion. I think this is a pretty silly notion, but to each their own.
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#274 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/9/2013 11:25:58 AM | message detail
And let's keep in mind I'm saying that with Mario currently tripling a character Charizard couldn't even double.
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#275 | swordz9 | Posted 8/9/2013 11:30:59 AM | message detail
I feel like Charizard would be clobbering these two about as badly as Mario is right now.
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#276 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/9/2013 11:34:25 AM | message detail
swordz9 posted...
I feel like Charizard would be clobbering these two about as badly as Mario is right now.


...you think Charizard can SFF Fawful better than Mario?

Regardless, we'll have a tentative read on him in a bit through a direct match: Charizard/Riku versus Falcon/Riku.
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#277 | swordz9 | Posted 8/9/2013 11:36:25 AM | message detail
I don't think he would have to SFF him since I think Fawful is pretty weak.
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#278 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/9/2013 11:37:09 AM | message detail
I just feel like I'm able to call the Zard correctly and while I think he's gonna handle Zelda/Lightning, when he steps up to the big M again, he's gonna fold like 2-7 off suit.
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#279 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/9/2013 11:39:09 AM | message detail
swordz9 posted...
I don't think he would have to SFF him since I think Fawful is pretty weak.


Uh, SFF is still SFF, and it often just gets that much more brutal against weak characters. Regardless this is pretty ridiculous, Mario's getting significantly more on Duke and Fawful combined than Charizard could put on Duke alone. He's very possibly our #2 character. Charizard has never done anything to suggest he can put up these kinds of numbers.

Tell me, how much are you expecting in Charizard/Riku/Nier?
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#280 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 8/9/2013 11:39:22 AM | message detail
Charizard is losing to Megaman. BOOK IT

(Actually not super confident in that, but it's my only chance of winning so I'll stick with it!)
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#281 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/9/2013 11:40:56 AM | message detail
ExThaNemesis posted...
I just feel like I'm able to call the Zard correctly and while I think he's gonna handle Zelda/Lightning, when he steps up to the big M again, he's gonna fold like 2-7 off suit.


big M as in Mega Man right ;)
#282 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/9/2013 11:41:54 AM | message detail
Quick.

Someone more obsessed with numbers extrapolate Mario vs. Snake through Duke and Isaac 2010.
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#283 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/9/2013 11:43:44 AM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
Quick.

Someone more obsessed with numbers extrapolate Mario vs. Snake through Duke and Isaac 2010.


more like for Character Battle X, we put Link (or Cloud/Sephiroth) directly against Chester and make ridiculous predictions via x-stats
#284 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/9/2013 11:43:49 AM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
Quick.

Someone more obsessed with numbers extrapolate Mario vs. Snake through Duke and Isaac 2010.


Mario beats Snake with around 55% of the vote.
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#285 | swordz9 | Posted 8/9/2013 11:43:49 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Uh, SFF is still SFF, and it often just gets that much more brutal against weak characters. Regardless this is pretty ridiculous, Mario's getting significantly more on Duke and Fawful combined than Charizard could put on Duke alone. He's very possibly our #2 character. Charizard has never done anything to suggest he can put up these kinds of numbers.

Tell me, how much are you expecting in Charizard/Riku/Nier?

I don't calculate stats or anything. I'd be shocked if Charizard is below 50% in that match though. I think he'll probably get at least 60% or so.
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#286 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/9/2013 11:45:40 AM | message detail
Mario beats Snake with around 55% of the vote.

Yup, so did Duke drop more than Isaac since 2010 would be the next question.
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#287 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/9/2013 11:45:59 AM | message detail
swordz9 posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Uh, SFF is still SFF, and it often just gets that much more brutal against weak characters. Regardless this is pretty ridiculous, Mario's getting significantly more on Duke and Fawful combined than Charizard could put on Duke alone. He's very possibly our #2 character. Charizard has never done anything to suggest he can put up these kinds of numbers.

Tell me, how much are you expecting in Charizard/Riku/Nier?

I don't calculate stats or anything. I'd be shocked if Charizard is below 50% in that match though. I think he'll probably get at least 60% or so.


That's about the mark that you'll need for Charizard validating his strength. He'll need to more or less double Riku, so something like 60/30/10 would be in order.
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#288 | The Mana Sword | Posted 8/9/2013 11:46:08 AM | message detail
charizard with 134%
riku with 4%
nier with -38%
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#289 | swordz9 | Posted 8/9/2013 11:47:59 AM | message detail
I don't remember how Riku does in these things aside from "worse than Sora" and I'm expecting Nier to be around Caim tier.
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#290 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/9/2013 11:48:12 AM | message detail
The Mana Sword posted...
charizard with 134%
riku with 4%
nier with -38%


Nier is too high
#291 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/9/2013 11:49:14 AM | message detail
swordz9 posted...
I don't remember how Riku does in these things aside from "worse than Sora" and I'm expecting Nier to be around Caim tier.


Well, he lost to Captain Falcon, so... 'not very good'. Charizard is projected to absolutely wreck him even considering that Falcon probably overperformed on Cloud, so you should expect big things.
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#292 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/9/2013 11:51:50 AM | message detail
My god..I just thought of something
I know we discussed "company rally" "in-game rally" many times but I just realized that...I can totally picture Rovio doing it
A one-time ad in every Angry Birds game,with a bonus of 20 power ups/Mighty Eagles by clicking on the link...
And wow,just think how many votes would go for Red Bird

Yes yes I know "but many companes can do it! Valve,Blizzard,Riot,etc"
But I dunno it just feels like Rovio...will do it..maybe
#293 | tgs2 | Posted 8/9/2013 11:53:58 AM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Mario beats Snake with around 55% of the vote.

Yup, so did Duke drop more than Isaac since 2010 would be the next question.


Isaac probably has the benefit of still being a smash 4 hopeful combined with the fact that Dark Dawn's bombing pales in comparison to DNF.
#294 | swordz9 | Posted 8/9/2013 11:56:48 AM | message detail
Charizard should look pretty great especially after taking a look at the match pic. Nier looks like he could pass for a generic Western character not that he was going to do well anyways. I don't recognize that Riku design, but I haven't played BBS or KH3D yet so maybe it's from them. I think Riku is much more recognizable with his KH1 look. 60/30/10 is definitely a strong possibility. Charizard is probably going to look insane the first couple minutes with the board vote since KH gets some hate and I don't think too many people have played Nier.
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#295 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/9/2013 11:57:22 AM | message detail
Using Charizard comparisons are tricky anyway, as we've already seen. There's not really another good match to gauge Mario on, either. Mario/Vivi is gonna have Ganondorf being a nuisance, Mario/Squall will be useless because either Red or Cecil is gonna be there, and then of course Samus/Mario/CharizardorMegaMan. Like so many years before, he's gonna be an enigma.

C'mon, at least let the guy face Sephiroth again. Maybe Bacon reasoned Mario's been blown out by Seph so many times we don't need to see it anymore.
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#296 | Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 8/9/2013 11:57:47 AM | message detail
Holy Hell Mario
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#297 | The Mana Sword | Posted 8/9/2013 11:58:25 AM | message detail
Maybe Bacon is secretly a Sephiroth fan and doesn't want to see him lose to Mario.
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#298 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/9/2013 11:59:13 AM | message detail
Obviously this is a Year Of Luigi Mario boost.
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#299 | Sorozone | Posted 8/9/2013 11:59:30 AM | message detail
Eh, I'd easily have Mario as the second strongest now.
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#300 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/9/2013 12:00:24 PM | message detail
swordz9 posted...
Charizard should look pretty great especially after taking a look at the match pic. Nier looks like he could pass for a generic Western character not that he was going to do well anyways. I don't recognize that Riku design, but I haven't played BBS or KH3D yet so maybe it's from them. I think Riku is much more recognizable with his KH1 look. 60/30/10 is definitely a strong possibility. Charizard is probably going to look insane the first couple minutes with the board vote since KH gets some hate and I don't think too many people have played Nier.


Right, and I'm totally willing to entertain him retaining his strength from the 2010 contest if he can reach that mark. But even something that would otherwise 'look' impressive like, say, 55/35/10 would be a big disappointment relative to what that strength was at the end of 2010. And if Riku can even make it remotely respectable, forget about it.
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