Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1100

#201 | creativename | Posted 8/9/2013 9:36:46 AM | message detail
--Smurf-- posted...
Yeah but looking at the vote graph it only looked like they got maybe 500 votes or so, they easily gathered over 1000 for Missile. Rallies are generally more effective when there's a perceived real chance of winning so its more votes rallying early in the match than late (if its not close).

Yup, any extra votes from eastern European countries and china strongly indicate proxy stuffing.

--Smurf-- posted...
Is Adam Jensen really a bro mcdude? Deus Ex used to be a highly respected game for the "mature gamer", is this revolution business a rebranding aimed at younger (CoD) audience that'd evoke more apathy?

He may not be a McDude if you actually played his game, but that's the thing. Most games have low playrates, and so character design matters.

For instance Nathan Drake is definitely not generic to people that have played his games. But his design is generic as hell. Thus most voters view him as a "McDude" and nothing more.

Shepard would probably be viewed as a McDude too, but his games are actually very popular around here, which is rare for any games past 2006.

I think Jensen will just be viewed as a McDude and be completely terrible at getting votes. Touhou's rally powers should be enough to beat him.
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#202 | ZFS | Posted 8/9/2013 9:37:16 AM | message detail
Mario what a beast

Contest champ
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#203 | ZeldaTPLink | Posted 8/9/2013 9:38:38 AM | message detail
ZFS posted...
Mario what a beast

Contest champ


Mario to beat Link in the finals.

I STILL BELIEVE
#204 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/9/2013 9:38:46 AM | message detail
MegatokyoEd posted...
Deus Ex is also a PC game that's 13 years old, which means it was released well before most of this site even dared to PC game.


Okay then how is Diablo II so popular on this site?
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#205 | --Smurf-- | Posted 8/9/2013 9:39:18 AM | message detail
That area of England didn't lean towards Missile and was split between Catherine/Neku, couldn't find anything of something like that before to suggest a trend.
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#206 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 8/9/2013 9:39:41 AM | message detail
Mario to beat Snake in the finals, even with Link there. That would be great.
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#207 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/9/2013 9:39:48 AM | message detail
Thibk Fawful could beat Duke 1vs1?
#208 | ZeldaTPLink | Posted 8/9/2013 9:39:56 AM | message detail
creativename posted...
--Smurf-- posted...
Yeah but looking at the vote graph it only looked like they got maybe 500 votes or so, they easily gathered over 1000 for Missile. Rallies are generally more effective when there's a perceived real chance of winning so its more votes rallying early in the match than late (if its not close).

Yup, any extra votes from eastern European countries and china strongly indicate proxy stuffing.

--Smurf-- posted...
Is Adam Jensen really a bro mcdude? Deus Ex used to be a highly respected game for the "mature gamer", is this revolution business a rebranding aimed at younger (CoD) audience that'd evoke more apathy?

He may not be a McDude if you actually played his game, but that's the thing. Most games have low playrates, and so character design matters.

For instance Nathan Drake is definitely not generic to people that have played his games. But his design is generic as hell. Thus most voters view him as a "McDude" and nothing more.

Shepard would probably be viewed as a McDude too, but his games are actually very popular around here, which is rare for any games past 2006.

I think Jensen will just be viewed as a McDude and be completely terrible at getting votes. Touhou's rally powers should be enough to beat him.


Exactly. I didn't play the games from any of the three characters, but it would vote Marisa or Vivi before voting for this guy, since they have more interesting designs.
#209 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/9/2013 9:40:26 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
MegatokyoEd posted...
Deus Ex is also a PC game that's 13 years old, which means it was released well before most of this site even dared to PC game.


Okay then how is Diablo II so popular on this site?

Because it was one of the few things that was.
This is obvious.
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#210 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/9/2013 9:40:41 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
MegatokyoEd posted...
Deus Ex is also a PC game that's 13 years old, which means it was released well before most of this site even dared to PC game.


Okay then how is Diablo II so popular on this site?


Because Blizzard is the exception to the rule? Most people have played a Blizzard game, even if they've never touched anything else on PC really.
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#211 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/9/2013 9:42:08 AM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
LinkMarioSamus posted...
MegatokyoEd posted...
Deus Ex is also a PC game that's 13 years old, which means it was released well before most of this site even dared to PC game.


Okay then how is Diablo II so popular on this site?

Because it was one of the few things that was.
This is obvious.


Got that.

Out of curiosity, what would you guys pick as the strongest PC game from 1996-2000 other than StarCraft/Diablo II/Half-Life? Probably one of the Fallouts.
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#212 | ZeldaTPLink | Posted 8/9/2013 9:43:23 AM | message detail
BK_Sheikah00 posted...
Mario to beat Snake in the finals, even with Link there. That would be great.


That would be the ultimate NintendoFAQs result, cementing this place as a Nintendo site forever.
#213 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/9/2013 9:45:09 AM | message detail
--Smurf-- posted...
That area of England didn't lean towards Missile and was split between Catherine/Neku, couldn't find anything of something like that before to suggest a trend.


I wouldn't trust the results for some parts of England because they are incorrect. Especially the percentages for the East Midlands and West Midlands, because it suggests there are very few votes from those 2 areas.
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#214 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/9/2013 9:45:29 AM | message detail
Just FYI Mario is doing only 2% better against Fawful than the 2010 stats project him to do. I think that's a sign that my theory regarding Fawful resisting SFF was right - and he's unfortunately simply this weak.
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#215 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/9/2013 9:51:53 AM | message detail
Also I guess Altair would blow out Duke now?
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#216 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/9/2013 9:53:41 AM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
For China, I calculated that there were 95 votes from China. This is unusually high for a 12-hour poll considering this year's age poll (with the ridiculous 50000+ vote totals) only had 53 votes from China. And for reference, the Auron match only had 26 votes from China. So I suspect someone might have been vote stuffing with proxies in China.


Actually, after researching this more, I discovered that there were actually 190 votes from China. Twice as many as what I originally thought.
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#217 | gustjar | Posted 8/9/2013 9:55:21 AM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Or South East UK is filled with 4chan users


Don't think you know how rallies work.

You really think if you just post this poll on 4chan and say "vote Cirno", 97%+ of the people in a sample of at least 116 people would actually vote Cirno? It's pretty much impossible to have this much homogeny considering there will be anti-votes, FFVII fanboys, Street Fighter Fans, Tifa's boob fans etc.

Also, that 97%+ is actually closer to 100% since some of the Tifa/Chun Li votes there are from legit users.
#218 | xp1337 | Posted 8/9/2013 9:55:55 AM | message detail
Out of curiosity, how do you know the votals from specific regions? Are the old geolocation links still active? Is it extrapolation from when they were? Or something else entirely?
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#219 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/9/2013 9:55:58 AM | message detail
What are the debatable matches left for round 1?
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#220 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/9/2013 9:56:40 AM | message detail
Duke looks horrible, and in a match where he really stands out, no less. If you'd swap him and Vivi, we could have had a Touhou character actually win a match (and isn't that what everybody wants).
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#221 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/9/2013 9:57:11 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
Out of curiosity, how do you know the votals from specific regions? Are the old geolocation links still active? Is it extrapolation from when they were? Or something else entirely?


I have to figure out the vote totals based on the percentages. And no, the old Geolocation links do not work anymore. They were killed off when the new poll maps were introduced.
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#222 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/9/2013 9:58:28 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
What are the debatable matches left for round 1?


Wario/Creeper
Pit/Cecil
? Block/Rikku

That's pretty much it, and all of those matches have rather clear favorites at this point. Could be smooth sailing until R2, but we've thought that many times before only to get burned (and burned and burned).
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#223 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/9/2013 9:59:32 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
What are the debatable matches left for round 1?


Not so sure if you mean for first place or for second place, or even both. But the only ones that come to mind are Pit vs Cecil and ? Block vs Rikku.
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#224 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/9/2013 10:02:00 AM | message detail
I'd throw Lightning/DK in just because something COULD happen.
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#225 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/9/2013 10:03:12 AM | message detail
Missingno squall
#226 | xp1337 | Posted 8/9/2013 10:03:52 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Missingno squall

You mean Tidus. Squall would be Round 2.
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#227 | --Smurf-- | Posted 8/9/2013 10:05:52 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
What are the debatable matches left for round 1?


There's plenty with some element of doubt. Very hard to have too many locks about characters that haven't been seen in years, untested everywhere and the factor of the format and low votals at play.

marisa/adam for 2nd
missingno/tidus for 1st
creeper/wario for 1st
sissel/corvo for 2nd
pit/cecil for 1st
mega man / magikarp for 1st
travis / recette for 2nd
red bird / mike haggar for 2nd
kratos aurion / boko for 2nd
Lenneth / Claptrap for 2nd
? Block / Rikku for 2nd
John Marston / Sackboy for 2nd
Lightning / Donkey Kong for 1st

Of possible relevance because I'm not sure if it's been discussed here but Recette is probably /v/'s favourite character bar nobody, she's like what Phoenix Wright is to board 8. Her doing something while unlikely enough is still worth watching.
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#228 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/9/2013 10:13:44 AM | message detail | (edited)
MegatokyoEd posted...
I'd throw Lightning/DK in just because something COULD happen.


The only thing I can think of happening there is DK needing to loosen that tie because he's choking again... (Translated: With DK being THE biggest choke artist on GameFAQs, I'd have trouble siding with him in any debatable match...)
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#229 | xp1337 | Posted 8/9/2013 10:07:34 AM | message detail
Anyway, I think there's a few more debatable matches from an expert challenge perspective but they're all "which (turbo)fodder is better" type of deals which can be... frustrating.

1st place is a lot more boring.
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#230 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/9/2013 10:20:48 AM | message detail
Fayt_Esteed posted...
MegatokyoEd posted...
I'd throw Lightning/DK in just because something COULD happen.


The only thing I can think of happening there is DK needing to loosen that tie because he's choking again... (Translated: With DK being THE biggest choke artist on GameFAQs, I'd have trouble siding with him in any debatable match...)


Watch DK start rocking the house because Lightning sux and the site agrees (unlikely, but you never know after DKCR and FFXIII). That'd just make my day.
#231 | swordz9 | Posted 8/9/2013 10:21:40 AM | message detail
Didn't a lot of people hate DKCR's motion control stuff?
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#232 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/9/2013 10:25:23 AM | message detail
Mario just dominating. Nice.
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#233 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/9/2013 10:28:46 AM | message detail
--Smurf-- posted...
Safer_777 posted...
What are the debatable matches left for round 1?


There's plenty with some element of doubt. Very hard to have too many locks about characters that haven't been seen in years, untested everywhere and the factor of the format and low votals at play.

marisa/adam for 2nd
missingno/tidus for 1st
creeper/wario for 1st
sissel/corvo for 2nd
pit/cecil for 1st
mega man / magikarp for 1st
travis / recette for 2nd
red bird / mike haggar for 2nd
kratos aurion / boko for 2nd
Lenneth / Claptrap for 2nd
? Block / Rikku for 2nd
John Marston / Sackboy for 2nd
Lightning / Donkey Kong for 1st

Of possible relevance because I'm not sure if it's been discussed here but Recette is probably /v/'s favourite character bar nobody, she's like what Phoenix Wright is to board 8. Her doing something while unlikely enough is still worth watching.


I know there was talk of Recette upsetting Travis in an earlier stats thread. Personally, I don't think it'll happen. Also, I doubt that ? Block and Rikku will be fighting for second, as that implies that Lyndis is going to be anything resembling a threat, and somehow I doubt that'll be the case.
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#234 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/9/2013 10:33:31 AM | message detail
Duke should be weaker... but there's no denying that these are two results that make Charizard look real fraudulent (Ezio/Tails, Mario/Duke). He's got a lot of proving to do against Riku... wherever he stands.
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#235 | Sorozone | Posted 8/9/2013 10:33:36 AM | message detail
Guybrush is gonna beat Max right? Dude deserves something!
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#236 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/9/2013 10:36:21 AM | message detail
I think Marisa has Adam soundly beat next match. Newer characters have been performing like trash this contest. And Touhou does have some pull over in Europe. Not to mention overnight rallies are probably more effective given the lower night vote totals.
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#237 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/9/2013 10:36:58 AM | message detail
Guybrush/Max is a REALLY good match-up. I'm still scratching my head on that one. Leaning towards Max....
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#238 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/9/2013 10:38:17 AM | message detail
Guybrush has never beat/placed above anyone.

Max should win comfortably.
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#239 | Pizzaknight | Posted 8/9/2013 10:38:54 AM | message detail
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CvqYb4LNkB0

Everybody should vote for Jensen, dammit.
#240 | --Smurf-- | Posted 8/9/2013 10:39:01 AM | message detail
Fayt_Esteed posted...
--Smurf-- posted...
Safer_777 posted...
What are the debatable matches left for round 1?


There's plenty with some element of doubt. Very hard to have too many locks about characters that haven't been seen in years, untested everywhere and the factor of the format and low votals at play.

marisa/adam for 2nd
missingno/tidus for 1st
creeper/wario for 1st
sissel/corvo for 2nd
pit/cecil for 1st
mega man / magikarp for 1st
travis / recette for 2nd
red bird / mike haggar for 2nd
kratos aurion / boko for 2nd
Lenneth / Claptrap for 2nd
? Block / Rikku for 2nd
John Marston / Sackboy for 2nd
Lightning / Donkey Kong for 1st

Of possible relevance because I'm not sure if it's been discussed here but Recette is probably /v/'s favourite character bar nobody, she's like what Phoenix Wright is to board 8. Her doing something while unlikely enough is still worth watching.


I know there was talk of Recette upsetting Travis in an earlier stats thread. Personally, I don't think it'll happen. Also, I doubt that ? Block and Rikku will be fighting for second, as that implies that Lyndis is going to be anything resembling a threat, and somehow I doubt that'll be the case.


Meant 1st for Rikku and the block
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#241 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/9/2013 10:40:00 AM | message detail | (edited)
No clue on Max. Without Max Payne 3 he'd be the worst kind of fodder by now, and I have no idea what MP3 did for him.
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#242 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/9/2013 10:41:55 AM | message detail
And that's the thing. Max Payne is utter garbage in this contest. But Max Payne 3 did just come out, and that might be all it takes to beat out crud like Guybrush
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#243 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/9/2013 10:43:04 AM | message detail
I wouldn't take Guybrush to beat out anything except bottom of the bottom of the bottom of the barrel fodder.
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#244 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/9/2013 10:43:19 AM | message detail
And yeah while *I* personally don't believe in it, it feels like there should be a lot more chatter over Zelda/Charizard. There's no Zelda year where she doesn't look better than what Charizard looks to have been pre-boost in 2010!
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#245 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/9/2013 10:45:02 AM | message detail
So from the matches left for 1st position.
Missigno-Tidus=Okay Missigno wins here for sure.I will vote for Tidus though.
Creeper-Wario=I am not sure for this one.I will vote for Wario though.
Pit-Cecil=I don't know here too.Cecil get's my vote.
MM-Magikarp=I am all for Pokemon but Magikarp had a really bad position.MM wins for sure.
? Block-Rikku=I was sure Rikku would win but well after I saw L-block dominating I believe ? Block has it.Rikku will fight though.

So out of these 5 matches 3 are the really debatable ones.
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#246 | --Smurf-- | Posted 8/9/2013 10:48:14 AM | message detail
kinsho3 posted...
I think Marisa has Adam soundly beat next match. Newer characters have been performing like trash this contest. And Touhou does have some pull over in Europe. Not to mention overnight rallies are probably more effective given the lower night vote totals.


Cirno spent the first part of the match pulling in only ~10% and the second half ~18%, if something like that happens with a 60/25/15 sort of split you'd be looking at Marissa being ~1200 votes down before Europe wakes up.
US/Canada had Cirno at 9% and Reimu at 16/17 so she's probably going to have to live on scraps for a long time. With rallying being more enticing when a character isn't massively behind this is a match I'd have a lot more confidence in if it was in the other time block and Marisa had the chance to shoot out the gates and build an insurmountable lead like Missile.
With the way it is banking on her to make the comeback seems like risky business.
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#247 | Lopen | Posted 8/9/2013 10:49:42 AM | message detail
Max Payne hasn't been that bad. Like bad, yeah, but not "consider taking Guybrush over him" bad. The only real case you have to pick Guybrush is arguing that Guybrush takes getting blown out better but we frankly have no real evidence of that in action.
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#248 | Sorozone | Posted 8/9/2013 10:50:03 AM | message detail
I'll probably go with Max, since it's a day match, but I just fear that Max has fallen so much that Guybrush could actually take advantage and win.

I also feel that a Max Payne 3 picture hurts more than it actually helps(or any neutral effect).
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#249 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/9/2013 10:50:30 AM | message detail
--Smurf-- posted...
Fayt_Esteed posted...
--Smurf-- posted...
Safer_777 posted...
What are the debatable matches left for round 1?


There's plenty with some element of doubt. Very hard to have too many locks about characters that haven't been seen in years, untested everywhere and the factor of the format and low votals at play.

marisa/adam for 2nd
missingno/tidus for 1st
creeper/wario for 1st
sissel/corvo for 2nd
pit/cecil for 1st
mega man / magikarp for 1st
travis / recette for 2nd
red bird / mike haggar for 2nd
kratos aurion / boko for 2nd
Lenneth / Claptrap for 2nd
? Block / Rikku for 2nd
John Marston / Sackboy for 2nd
Lightning / Donkey Kong for 1st

Of possible relevance because I'm not sure if it's been discussed here but Recette is probably /v/'s favourite character bar nobody, she's like what Phoenix Wright is to board 8. Her doing something while unlikely enough is still worth watching.


I know there was talk of Recette upsetting Travis in an earlier stats thread. Personally, I don't think it'll happen. Also, I doubt that ? Block and Rikku will be fighting for second, as that implies that Lyndis is going to be anything resembling a threat, and somehow I doubt that'll be the case.


Meant 1st for Rikku and the block


Alright. Sorry if I sounded like I was nitpicking.
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#250 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/9/2013 10:52:05 AM | message detail
I think you guys should have more faith in Jensen. He has a more distinctive design than the average McDude, and Deus Ex was a well-selling, well-received console game with RPG elements on GameFAQs. He won't amount to much but these talks of him easily losing to a Touhou are pretty surprising to me.
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