Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1100

#151 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/9/2013 9:02:48 AM | message detail
3rd vote for Fawful.Of course Mario is dominating.
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#152 | Denzokuken | Posted 8/9/2013 9:03:15 AM | message detail
Duke's gonna explode in the next update!
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Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over....
#153 | eaglesarebeasts | Posted 8/9/2013 9:03:35 AM | message detail
Why did people bother bringing Fawful back for a second contest?
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#154 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/9/2013 9:05:20 AM | message detail | (edited)
This should be fun for comparison purposes: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3760

e: As is this: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3743
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#155 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/9/2013 9:04:39 AM | message detail
eaglesarebeasts posted...
Why did people bother bringing Fawful back for a second contest?


I think Fawful would beat Duke here without Mario in the poll.
#156 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/9/2013 9:04:46 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Denzokuken posted...
Are we definitely sure they are rallies...?

Cirno votes by hour-

519
270
254
234
167
249
340
307
305
599
357
566

I don't get this 357 in the middile


Make last hour 642 instead of 566
So yes,more votes for a character on the last hour than the power hour is pretty much rallying
#157 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/9/2013 9:05:33 AM | message detail
This should be fun for comparison purposes: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3760

Duke had the America picture back then.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 49/62 Today's Picks: Tifa and Mario
#158 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/9/2013 9:06:10 AM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
This should be fun for comparison purposes: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3760

e: As is this: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3743


So this should get us a legit reading on what Mario/Zard should have been.
#159 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/9/2013 9:06:31 AM | message detail
Ouch Fawful
All his % went to Mario
#160 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/9/2013 9:06:37 AM | message detail
#161 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/9/2013 9:06:37 AM | message detail
Fawful already dropping like a rock.
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#162 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/9/2013 9:06:42 AM | message detail
A Closer Look at the Generic McDudes
Alan Wake: GENERIC PERFORMANCE
Frank West: GENERIC PERFORMANCE
Tommy Vercetti: Maybe not a GENERIC PERFORMANCE, but certainly underperformed.
Cole: GENERIC PERFORMANCE
Niko Bellic: Not completely generic, I suppose. Still got 70/30'd by Epona.
Francis York Morgan: GENERIC PERFORMANCE
JC Denton: GENERIC PERFORMANCE
Booker DeWitt: GENERIC PERFORMANCE
Lee Everett: ...gotta give him props. He could have won a night match.
Nathan Drake: Best of the bunch.

Isaac Clarke: GENERIC PERFORMANCE
Vaas Montenegro: GENERIC PERFORMANCE

Bolded are the ones who actually did well for themselves. Would you believe it, 50% of them are black. RACISTFAQS DENIED.
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#163 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/9/2013 9:06:44 AM | message detail
There goes Fawful

Duke staying strong
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Points: 49/62 Today's Picks: Tifa and Mario
#164 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/9/2013 9:06:47 AM | message detail
And there it is. Mario flying up, Fawful crashing, and all is right again in the universe.
#165 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/9/2013 9:07:11 AM | message detail
Mario/Duke update: 71.59%
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#166 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/9/2013 9:09:17 AM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
This should be fun for comparison purposes: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3760



I forgot I made that 'MERICA Duke pic

http://images2.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20100318220320/board8/images/3/31/Cb8-31.jpg
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#167 | Kibago | Posted 8/9/2013 9:09:40 AM | message detail
DUKE
you keep those percents
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#168 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 8/9/2013 9:12:37 AM | message detail
Most boring division. Only thing interesting will be Squall/Missingno.
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#169 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/9/2013 9:14:06 AM | message detail
Pit/Cecil isn't locked in, and I think Creeper and Tidus have outside shots at making their matches interesting.
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#170 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/9/2013 9:14:39 AM | message detail
So Duke has 26.6% on Mario currently, while he had 35.75% on Charizard.

Assuming I did the x-stats thing from the front page right, Charizard would currently score 37.2% on Mario. That's one hell of an overperformance, though it's only 12 minutes in so far.
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#171 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/9/2013 9:15:41 AM | message detail
Updated Top 10

Top 10 Most Popular Night Polls
1. Draven vs. Jak vs. Chie Satonaka – Round 1 – 39737
2. Yoshi vs. Solaire of Astora vs. Demi-Fiend – Round 1 – 30487
3. Tharja vs. Tiny Tina vs. Juliet Starling – Round 1 – 30420
4. Tifa Lockheart vs. Chun-Li vs. Cirno – Round 1 – 29168
5. Link vs. Isaac vs. Tingle – Round 1 – 28930
6. Alucard vs. Captain Falcon vs. Rydia – Round 1 – 28202
7. Sephiroth vs. Midna vs. Little Mac – Round 1 – 28199
8. Mega Man X vs. Jigglypuff vs. Welkin Gunther – Round 1 – 27860
9. Sub-Zero vs. Garrus Vakarian vs. Frank West – Round 1 – 27770
10. Epona vs. Mordin Solus vs. Niko Bellic – Round 1 – 27091

Top 10 Highest Night Individual Votes
1. Mewtwo – Round 1 – 21525
2. Link – Round 1 – 21024
3. Yoshi – Round 1 – 18775
4. Mega Man X – Round 1 – 18171
5. Tifa Lockheart – Round 1 – 17408
6. Cloud Strife – Round 1 – 17400
7. Big Boss – Round 1 – 17337
8. Samus Aran – Round 1 – 17326
9. Sephiroth – Round 1 – 16179
10. Draven – Round 1 – 16081
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Points: 49/62 Today's Picks: Tifa and Mario
#172 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/9/2013 9:19:11 AM | message detail | (edited)
Assuming I did the x-stats thing from the front page right, Charizard would currently score 37.2% on Mario. That's one hell of an overperformance, though it's only 12 minutes in so far.

I don't think Duke is going to go up too much.
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Points: 49/62 Today's Picks: Tifa and Mario
#173 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/9/2013 9:17:14 AM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
So Duke has 26.6% on Mario currently, while he had 35.75% on Charizard.

Assuming I did the x-stats thing from the front page right, Charizard would currently score 37.2% on Mario. That's one hell of an overperformance, though it's only 12 minutes in so far.


Mario keeps going up while Duke keeps going down
it's gonna be an even bigger overperformance
#174 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/9/2013 9:17:35 AM | message detail
This is..nice
Most popular night poll ever since the first division
#175 | Denzokuken | Posted 8/9/2013 9:17:44 AM | message detail
Lightning > Charizard, don't forget it.
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Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over....
#176 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/9/2013 9:18:13 AM | message detail
Oh Jesus, Mario's tripling Duke now.
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#177 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/9/2013 9:19:05 AM | message detail
It'd be nice if Fawful stabilizes around here.
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#178 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 8/9/2013 9:19:14 AM | message detail
5. Tifa Lockheart – Round 1 – 17408
6. Cloud Strife – Round 1 – 17400


Beautiful. Pretty much the same.
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#179 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/9/2013 9:19:24 AM | message detail
This year Duke is weaker than 2010 Duke
Same reason as Master Chief
#180 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/9/2013 9:20:32 AM | message detail
Charizard down to 34.66% on Mario through this comparison, so this could lead to an indirect doubling.

And how many people picked this guy over Mega Man, again?
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#181 | --Smurf-- | Posted 8/9/2013 9:21:44 AM | message detail
The interesting part of the Marisa/Jensen is with all the touhou support coming from Europe its inevitable that she's going to be trailing in a big way before things look up.
Cirno was operating on about ~9% before Europe woke up before pretty consistently working on 20% after they did, Reimu was like that but in reverse, starting strong and dying as Europe went to bed. It's a given that she'll fall several hundred, if not thousands behind so it makes it a tough call whether to have confidence in that fightback or not.
Rallys are kinda hard to bank on, could work like teemo and it just might never show up.
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#182 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/9/2013 9:22:29 AM | message detail
Nevermind, it's already an indirect doubling after this update.
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#183 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/9/2013 9:23:14 AM | message detail
Yeah Duke should be weaker now that DNF is a game and not a running joke.

Fawful is holding up quite well though.
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Points: 49/62 Today's Picks: Tifa and Mario
#184 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/9/2013 9:23:58 AM | message detail
--Smurf-- posted...
The interesting part of the Marisa/Jensen is with all the touhou support coming from Europe its inevitable that she's going to be trailing in a big way before things look up.
Cirno was operating on about ~9% before Europe woke up before pretty consistently working on 20% after they did, Reimu was like that but in reverse, starting strong and dying as Europe went to bed. It's a given that she'll fall several hundred, if not thousands behind so it makes it a tough call whether to have confidence in that fightback or not.
Rallys are kinda hard to bank on, could work like teemo and it just might never show up.


They just did this rally for Cirno even though she was in an absolutely gigantic ditch. And there's no way Jensen will be as far ahead as Chun-Li or be able to weather the storm as well.
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#185 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/9/2013 9:25:06 AM | message detail
Denzokuken posted...
edit - If we could see votals for each country, I would be interested to see the votals in Ireland, the UK, and China. The former two almost always give FFVII a win over everything else but have suspiciously high percentages for Cirno. China has almost 80% for Cirno, I can't remember if China favours FFVII that much but I think it has low votals anyway, something must have happened there - either a rally or stuffing...


Ireland had 186 votes in the previous match. That easily shatters the previous record of 140 votes in a night match.

For China, I calculated that there were 95 votes from China. This is unusually high for a 12-hour poll considering this year's age poll (with the ridiculous 50000+ vote totals) only had 53 votes from China. And for reference, the Auron match only had 26 votes from China. So I suspect someone might have been vote stuffing with proxies in China.
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#186 | --Smurf-- | Posted 8/9/2013 9:26:28 AM | message detail
MegatokyoEd posted...
--Smurf-- posted...
The interesting part of the Marisa/Jensen is with all the touhou support coming from Europe its inevitable that she's going to be trailing in a big way before things look up.
Cirno was operating on about ~9% before Europe woke up before pretty consistently working on 20% after they did, Reimu was like that but in reverse, starting strong and dying as Europe went to bed. It's a given that she'll fall several hundred, if not thousands behind so it makes it a tough call whether to have confidence in that fightback or not.
Rallys are kinda hard to bank on, could work like teemo and it just might never show up.


They just did this rally for Cirno even though she was in an absolutely gigantic ditch. And there's no way Jensen will be as far ahead as Chun-Li or be able to weather the storm as well.


Yeah but looking at the vote graph it only looked like they got maybe 500 votes or so, they easily gathered over 1000 for Missile. Rallies are generally more effective when there's a perceived real chance of winning so its more votes rallying early in the match than late (if its not close).
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#187 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/9/2013 9:27:02 AM | message detail
all these night shenanigans making Draven like more and more suspicious!
#188 | Denzokuken | Posted 8/9/2013 9:28:00 AM | message detail
Thanks Luster. Well let's hope that something like that doesn't end up deciding a legitimately close match, assuming it is stuffing....
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Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over....
#189 | creativename | Posted 8/9/2013 9:28:41 AM | message detail
Looks like Tifa would have gotten 63+% without the rally. That's one hell of a rally...for someone who had zero chance to finish anywhere but third.

Seriously - why would you even rally someone in that hopeless of a situation? To screw with our Oracle predictions?!

Not_Wylvane posted...
Charizard down to 34.66% on Mario through this comparison, so this could lead to an indirect doubling.

And how many people picked this guy over Mega Man, again?

I think Duke is just highly volatile year to year (maybe even round to round) and pic sensitive.

I still think Zard should be the favorite over Mega Man/Zero - though I'd love to see Mega Man squeak through there. MM's bracket placing is so horribly unfair. Him beating Zard would be a big "**** you!!" to Bacon's bracket-making skills!

MM does have some hope I guess in that he should SFF Zero far worse than in a 1v1, maybe even worse than the time he lost to Weighted Companion where he scored, 63? IIRC on Zero.
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#190 | --Smurf-- | Posted 8/9/2013 9:30:00 AM | message detail
Is Adam Jensen really a bro mcdude? Deus Ex used to be a highly respected game for the "mature gamer", is this revolution business a rebranding aimed at younger (CoD) audience that'd evoke more apathy?
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#191 | gustjar | Posted 8/9/2013 9:32:18 AM | message detail
LOL the vote stuffing in the Cirno match.


South East UK

Tifa - 1.4%
Cirno - 97.76%
Chun Li - 0.84%
#192 | yoshi7cw3 | Posted 8/9/2013 9:33:15 AM | message detail
Snake was also in that poll with MM, Zero, and Cube. I'm hoping that without him in a 3-way, MM might be able pull it out somehow... though it's tough to compare Cube with Charizard and predict where Snake's votes will go to.
#193 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/9/2013 9:33:53 AM | message detail
Or South East UK is filled with 4chan users
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#194 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/9/2013 9:34:32 AM | message detail
Denton's performed like crap, and the only notable thing Deus Ex ever did was have a close match with Rock Band 2.

Nobody cares about Deus Ex on this site.
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#195 | ZeldaTPLink | Posted 8/9/2013 9:34:47 AM | message detail
--Smurf-- posted...
Is Adam Jensen really a bro mcdude? Deus Ex used to be a highly respected game for the "mature gamer", is this revolution business a rebranding aimed at younger (CoD) audience that'd evoke more apathy?


<Looks at the match pic>

<Sees perfectly generic looking western FPS hero>

Yep, Generic McDude.
#196 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/9/2013 9:35:10 AM | message detail
Mario is a FF7 character confirmed
keep going up Mario!
#197 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/9/2013 9:35:50 AM | message detail
Like a FF7 character would actually be approaching 70% in a match.
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#198 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/9/2013 9:36:19 AM | message detail
Deus Ex is also a PC game that's 13 years old, which means it was released well before most of this site even dared to PC game.

Human Revolution at least has the fact that it was released on consoles going for it.
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#199 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/9/2013 9:36:32 AM | message detail
--Smurf-- posted...
Is Adam Jensen really a bro mcdude? Deus Ex used to be a highly respected game for the "mature gamer", is this revolution business a rebranding aimed at younger (CoD) audience that'd evoke more apathy?


I've heard Human Revolution described as a "blockbuster take" on its series. Also I watched reviews of both Human Revolution and its predecessor and I can confirm that the former is more action-packed.

That being said however, I dunno why it's specifically "bro" mcdudes - generic mcdudes of all kinds have been bombing whether or not they were "bro". Pretty sure Alan Wake and Francis York Morgan aren't "bro" mcdudes.
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#200 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/9/2013 9:36:32 AM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Or South East UK is filled with 4chan users


It's possible, because a lot of the votes from the Cirno rally came from the UK and Ireland. All of the other major countries in Europe like Sweden, Finland, Germany, Italy, France, and the Netherlands all have less than 20% for Cirno.
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