Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1100

#101 | --Smurf-- | Posted 8/9/2013 7:37:31 AM | message detail
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0lGJlKH9Zjc

Cirno people are strange
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#102 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/9/2013 7:42:55 AM | message detail
What is this with Cirno being 9%?
Now if it was Zero with 9.99% I would understand!
#103 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/9/2013 7:46:01 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
What is this with Cirno being 9%?
Now if it was Zero with 9.99% I would understand!


It's a Touhou joke regarding Cirno.
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#104 | creativename | Posted 8/9/2013 8:02:06 AM | message detail
This Touhou rally is killing Tifa's percentage. It looks to have given Cirno about 4%, at least 2.5 points of that has to be coming from Tifa.
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#105 | creativename | Posted 8/9/2013 8:02:46 AM | message detail
Fayt_Esteed posted...
Nanis23 posted...
What is this with Cirno being 9%?
Now if it was Zero with 9.99% I would understand!


It's a Touhou joke regarding Cirno.

What's the joke?
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#106 | SuorGenoveffa | Posted 8/9/2013 8:04:01 AM | message detail
I'm honestly surprised at Tifa's performance here, she's the first FF7 character who was actually impressive IMO.

Or maybe I was overestimating Chun-Li, but then again she is an iconic character and is weird to see her do this badly.
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#107 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/9/2013 8:04:58 AM | message detail
SuorGenoveffa posted...
I'm honestly surprised at Tifa's performance here, she's the first FF7 character who was actually impressive IMO.

Or maybe I was overestimating Chun-Li, but then again she is an iconic character and is weird to see her do this badly.


you forgot an loltouhou rally that dropped Tifa's %, she'd be higher otherwise
#108 | SuorGenoveffa | Posted 8/9/2013 8:08:29 AM | message detail
Yes I'm aware of the rally, but still I wouldn't have expected Tifa to win with more than 55% at best.
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#109 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/9/2013 8:09:48 AM | message detail
Tifa's looking good, but she's doing about what I expected before everything else from FFVII fell off a cliff. Chun-Li's vaguely decent, but outside of one match against a weird Yuna in 2006 she's never been much.
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#110 | StarStormScream | Posted 8/9/2013 8:11:21 AM | message detail
SuorGenoveffa posted...
I'm honestly surprised at Tifa's performance here, she's the first FF7 character who was actually impressive IMO.

Or maybe I was overestimating Chun-Li, but then again she is an iconic character and is weird to see her do this badly.


Well, all things considered, the 2010 stats say that Chun is virtually performing in line with adjusted Ken. I just figured with the way FF7 has been performing thus far, 65/35 would be about as bad as it got. *shrug*
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#111 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/9/2013 8:30:17 AM | message detail
creativename posted...
Fayt_Esteed posted...
Nanis23 posted...
What is this with Cirno being 9%?
Now if it was Zero with 9.99% I would understand!


It's a Touhou joke regarding Cirno.

What's the joke?


It has do with with the nine ball - in the game manual of Touhou's 9th game "Phantasmagoria of Flower View", Cirno was labeled using the nine ball, which meant "baka".
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#112 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/9/2013 8:32:57 AM | message detail
Fawful...going to get SFF'd so badly...this is going to be really ugly
Caim level?
#113 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/9/2013 8:34:36 AM | message detail
I'm starting to think that Fawful won't get SFFd. I just can't imagine his fans abandoning him for Mario.

The reason being that Fawful has so few fans to begin with. He'll probably still be stronger than both Kaims.
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#114 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/9/2013 8:37:41 AM | message detail
so which obviously last place character will 4chan rally next?
#115 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/9/2013 8:40:26 AM | message detail
Probably Marisa
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#116 | xp1337 | Posted 8/9/2013 8:40:42 AM | message detail
This rally is making me feel a lot better about making a switch to Marisa > Jensen. I figure Cirno's percentage here will be Marisa's floor. She'll have much easier competition there, and while ~15% by itself might not be enough to win just because I have trouble thinking Vivi can pull in 70% I can see Marisa going closer to 20%, and at that point if that isn't good for 2nd it should be close enough that the rally will be motivated to make it happen.

...I really want to go with this upset and I probably will, but it just seems so wrong taking a Touhou character not in last.
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#117 | 2Dover3D | Posted 8/9/2013 8:43:03 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
This rally is making me feel a lot better about making a switch to Marisa > Jensen. I figure Cirno's percentage here will be Marisa's floor. She'll have much easier competition there, and while ~15% by itself might not be enough to win just because I have trouble thinking Vivi can pull in 70% I can see Marisa going closer to 20%, and at that point if that isn't good for 2nd it should be close enough that the rally will be motivated to make it happen.

...I really want to go with this upset and I probably will, but it just seems so wrong taking a Touhou character not in last.


She's facing a Western dudebro character who will be lucky to get 10%. She has to be the favorite there.
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#118 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/9/2013 8:44:36 AM | message detail
I think Marisa's getting 2nd there because Adam Jensen is going to probably be even worse than Denton, while I can at least picture Marisa threatening to get 20%.
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#119 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/9/2013 8:44:43 AM | message detail
I have Jensen getting last. He's probably the most glaring example of "Generic McDude" we have so far. I'd expect little anime girl to win even without rallies.
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#120 | xp1337 | Posted 8/9/2013 8:44:50 AM | message detail
I don't care how weak Jensen is, Vivi and Marisa aren't the kind of competition I imagine could force anyone under 10%!

How far does Vivi need to go in that scenario?
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#121 | Denzokuken | Posted 8/9/2013 8:44:56 AM | message detail
Jensen - Western character, debut 2011, looks boring like all Western characters... Everything we've seen so far points to a sub-10% finish. He should finish last there.
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#122 | Denzokuken | Posted 8/9/2013 8:50:25 AM | message detail | (edited)
The rallies and votals in this match are something else, by the way. 28,000 votes for a night match - is that the largest we've seen since Draven? Tifa, despite the crippling impact on her percentage, might still pull in more votes than Cloud!

edit - If we could see votals for each country, I would be interested to see the votals in Ireland, the UK, and China. The former two almost always give FFVII a win over everything else but have suspiciously high percentages for Cirno. China has almost 80% for Cirno, I can't remember if China favours FFVII that much but I think it has low votals anyway, something must have happened there - either a rally or stuffing...
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Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over....
#123 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/9/2013 8:49:06 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
I'm starting to think that Fawful won't get SFFd. I just can't imagine his fans abandoning him for Mario.

The reason being that Fawful has so few fans to begin with. He'll probably still be stronger than both Kaims.

Which is a real shame because he is the best Mario RPG character
In a just world Fawful would 80/20 Geno instead of the other way around!
#124 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/9/2013 8:49:26 AM | message detail
because Touhou fans are screwing up % expectations, Tifa still has ~70% on Chun-Li
#125 | xp1337 | Posted 8/9/2013 8:50:32 AM | message detail | (edited)
Well, I'd take Jensen to win with no rallies involved so if you don't accept that premise well yeah. Obviously Jensen is going to be awful, I just don't know exactly how awful you need to be to lose to a Touhou character! Layton got 62.4% on a rallied Reimu! Now, Layton can probably do that to Jensen too, but again, rallied Reimu!
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#126 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 8/9/2013 8:51:50 AM | message detail
I still don't know wtf is a Touhou even this far into the contest. How come they are so ralliable?
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#127 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/9/2013 8:52:25 AM | message detail
because they are little girls
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#128 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/9/2013 8:53:29 AM | message detail
Cirno is almost beating Tifa in the UK.

It's crazy how centered in Europe these 4chan rallies are.
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#129 | Denzokuken | Posted 8/9/2013 8:53:56 AM | message detail
Are we definitely sure they are rallies...?
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#130 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/9/2013 8:54:04 AM | message detail
Denzokuken posted...
Jensen - Western character, debut 2011, looks boring like all Western characters... Everything we've seen so far points to a sub-10% finish. He should finish last there.


Know what else? Deus Ex: Human Revolution isn't exactly the most popular of recent games.

(although the same online friend I often mentioned has that game in his top 5)
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#131 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/9/2013 8:54:05 AM | message detail
So are we siding with Mario so he will do a big blowout or vote for Fawful so maybe he can have some..good early start..?
#132 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/9/2013 8:55:01 AM | message detail
Cirno is at 36% in Britain.

Does anyone here actually believe that's legit? Anyone at all?
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#133 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/9/2013 8:55:30 AM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
because 4chan


fixed for accuracy
#134 | Denzokuken | Posted 8/9/2013 8:56:35 AM | message detail
There was a guy in a 4chan thread claiming to be stuffing in the UK, by the looks of things he was telling the truth. I think SBAllen should look into this, the amount of votes stuffed could easily decide a close match.
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#135 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/9/2013 8:57:19 AM | message detail
Both Touhou characters have picked up 4chan rallies so far (and neither were within a lightyear of actually winning), so it's probably a good idea to assume Marisa gets the same treatment.
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#136 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/9/2013 8:57:48 AM | message detail
Denzokuken posted...
edit - If we could see votals for each country, I would be interested to see the votals in Ireland, the UK, and China. The former two almost always give FFVII a win over everything else but have suspiciously high percentages for Cirno. China has almost 80% for Cirno, I can't remember if China favours FFVII that much but I think it has low votals anyway, something must have happened there - either a rally or stuffing...


When this match ends, I'll attempt to figure out the vote totals for Ireland and China. I can't do it for the UK because it is a painstaking task to calculate vote totals for a country that has several thousand votes.
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#137 | shane15 | Posted 8/9/2013 8:58:27 AM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
Cirno is at 36% in Britain.

Does anyone here actually believe that's legit? Anyone at all?


Has to be joke votes.The amount of people that even know or have played that game over here is pretty much non existant
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#138 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/9/2013 8:58:43 AM | message detail
Denzokuken posted...
Are we definitely sure they are rallies...?

Cirno votes by hour-

519
270
254
234
167
249
340
307
305
599
357
566

I don't get this 357 in the middile
#139 | Denzokuken | Posted 8/9/2013 8:58:48 AM | message detail
Luster, such a soldier.
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Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over....
#140 | abdou | Posted 8/9/2013 8:58:49 AM | message detail
thank God we won't have these Touhou characters in the second round
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#141 | armitage999 | Posted 8/9/2013 8:59:32 AM | message detail
I don't think Jensen's going to win, but I don't think it's all gloom and doom either for him. Maybe his following from VGCW will be enough?

Of course I haven't seen any episodes since the new season started.
#142 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/9/2013 9:00:01 AM | message detail
The Tharja/Juliet/Tina match could have been a riot if you put a Touhou in Juliet's place.
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#143 | tennisboy213 | Posted 8/9/2013 9:00:14 AM | message detail
Vote Accepted


Mario
80%
4 Votes
Your Pick

Duke Nukem
20%
1 Votes

Fawful
0%
0 Votes
Total Votes: 5
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POKEFEAR
#144 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/9/2013 9:00:26 AM | message detail
Vote Accepted
Mario
63.64%
7 Votes
Duke Nukem
27.27%
3 Votes
Fawful
9.09%
1 Votes

I hate you
Why must I be the first one to vote Fawful
#145 | raytan7585 | Posted 8/9/2013 9:00:27 AM | message detail
Mario
66.67%
6 Votes
Your Pick

Duke Nukem
33.33%
3 Votes

Fawful
0%
0 Votes

Total Votes: 9
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#146 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/9/2013 9:00:37 AM | message detail
Never bet on Duke


Mario
57.58%
19 Votes

Duke Nukem
21.21%
7 Votes

Fawful
21.21%
7 Votes
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#147 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/9/2013 9:01:43 AM | message detail
#148 | xp1337 | Posted 8/9/2013 9:01:47 AM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Both Touhou characters have picked up 4chan rallies so far (and neither were within a lightyear of actually winning), so it's probably a good idea to assume Marisa gets the same treatment.

Oh yeah, that's true. I went and actually switched to Marisa now and was almost certainly going to do so later if I was too lazy to do so now specifically because Cirno got a rally here of all places. I refuse to believe Cirno gets rallied in this spot and Marisa isn't a place where it could get her the win. But say the Cirno rally never materialized, I'm not sure it's quite as simple then. I probably still go for Marisa on the belief the rally would show but if it didn't, I think she'd lose.

If you think she wins straight-up that's something different! I didn't think that was the consensus though!
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#149 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/9/2013 9:02:17 AM | message detail
Nice early freeze
Just wondering how bad Fawful is going to crash
#150 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/9/2013 9:02:31 AM | message detail
One minute freeze again. Watch Mario be over 70%.
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