Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1100

#51 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/9/2013 3:27:31 AM | message detail
For me, it all depends on how much percentage Vivi gets. The more he dominates, the less Marisa has to get on Adam to win. I don't know if Vivi can put this in range in the way Crono did against Kerrigan.
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#52 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/9/2013 3:28:02 AM | message detail
LOLContests posted...
Looking at Division 1 we have Shepard with "I'm Commander Shepard, and this is my favorite store on the Citadel." vs. Aerith with "I'll be going now. I'll come back when it's all over."


Aerith would totally get "This guy are sick."

...Which honestly might help her.
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#53 | Denzokuken | Posted 8/9/2013 3:29:20 AM | message detail
Tifa > Squall > Vincent > Auron

Tifa not getting the respect she deserves.
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#54 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/9/2013 3:31:03 AM | message detail | (edited)
With competition like that, there's no way Vivi gets under 50% at least. Pushing for 60+ is likely
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#55 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/9/2013 3:32:35 AM | message detail
I just gave Tifa the benefit of the doubt and said she could conceivably beat all of them!

No way I'd pick Squall to lose to any of them. That just ain't happenin'!

I truly think Squall beats Vincent now. He barely lost to Vincent the year before KH2, and FFVII has declined at a faster rate than FFVIII has. Plus, Squall's been in Dissidia. Vincent's had...Dirge of Cerberus since the last time they met.

Still a little upset Sonic got that Brawl announcement in 2007 because Squall would have throttled him without it, even with Sora being in the match. To think, he already should've broken the Noble Nine by now, but he rarely gets a fair shot at it! Instead, he keeps getting put into matches with Cloud, Snake, and now Mario!
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#56 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/9/2013 3:33:39 AM | message detail
Then00bAvenger posted...
With competition like that, there's no way Vivi gets under 50% at least. Pushing for 60+ is likely


Unless Jensen is halfway decent (which is unlikely), Vivi getting less than 60% would be a bad performance for him, I think.

Then again, Barret barely got 50% on Professor Layton and Reimu, and Vivi is a black mage...!
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#57 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/9/2013 3:33:43 AM | message detail
Squall being a Near Elite means he will eventually have to face a Noble Niner. At least it's not Cloud or Snake this year, although he does get Mario this time around.
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#58 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/9/2013 3:36:05 AM | message detail
Denton was sad
But does it says something about Adam...? being the main character of a more recent game can be a totally different story,no?
#59 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/9/2013 3:37:12 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
I just gave Tifa the benefit of the doubt and said she could conceivably beat all of them!

No way I'd pick Squall to lose to any of them. That just ain't happenin'!

I truly think Squall beats Vincent now. He barely lost to Vincent the year before KH2, and FFVII has declined at a faster rate than FFVIII has. Plus, Squall's been in Dissidia. Vincent's had...Dirge of Cerberus since the last time they met.

Still a little upset Sonic got that Brawl announcement in 2007 because Squall would have throttled him without it, even with Sora being in the match. To think, he already should've broken the Noble Nine by now, but he rarely gets a fair shot at it! Instead, he keeps getting put into matches with Cloud, Snake, and now Mario!


Well, if there's any consilation, he could beat the guy...thing....blob of pixels that actually broke the Noble Nine.
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#60 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/9/2013 3:39:02 AM | message detail
I think Adam is probably going to be even worse than Denton. Less people have played Deus Ex: Human Revolution compared to the original Deus Ex.
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#61 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/9/2013 3:41:33 AM | message detail
Deus Ex was mainly a PC game and Human Revolution was released on consoles under S-E as a publisher. Pretty sure the latter is going to be overall more palatable for this website.

Not being 13 years old helps too I guess
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#62 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/9/2013 3:43:06 AM | message detail
Yeah, Deus Ex is a PC game from back before this site played PC games. Jensen shouldn't be as bad as Denton, but I don't expect much. Still debating on whether to take Marisa for second.
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#63 | Janus5000 | Posted 8/9/2013 3:43:53 AM | message detail
We could see Mario/Squall/Red. Who knows what the Nintendo split there looks like...!
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#64 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/9/2013 3:45:34 AM | message detail
Pokemon doesn't get SFF'd!

Also Tifa would lose to any of those guys in a headshot round. Remember that we once got THIS amazing pic:

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/sc2k5/b46.jpg
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#65 | Swarles_Barkley | Posted 8/9/2013 3:47:49 AM | message detail
Squall > Tifa > Vincent > Auron

Definitely Squall first, the others look right as well.
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#66 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/9/2013 3:51:27 AM | message detail
Chart from the day match:

Time | Chief | Yuna | Claire | Votes
0:05 | 35.57% | 46.98% | 17.45% | 149
1:00 | 31.75% | 43.97% | 24.28% | 5049
2:00 | 35.47% | 39.47% | 25.07% | 3750
3:00 | 34.97% | 40.12% | 24.92% | 3303
4:00 | 33.76% | 40.10% | 26.14% | 3072
5:00 | 35.54% | 39.39% | 25.08% | 2831
6:00 | 35.50% | 40.40% | 24.09% | 2673
7:00 | 35.66% | 39.63% | 24.70% | 2518
8:00 | 36.14% | 40.13% | 23.73% | 2103
9:00 | 34.98% | 39.74% | 25.28% | 1978
10:00 | 36.46% | 38.70% | 24.84% | 1920
11:00 | 36.00% | 41.31% | 22.69% | 1847
12:00 | 36.10% | 39.65% | 24.26% | 1748

The Yuna Power Hour, quite a thing to behold! Claire is fairly stable. Chief does better in the second half of the match. No ASV in sight, poor guy!

X-Stats:

Yuna – 50.00%
Master Chief – 46.25%
Claire Redfield – 37.85%

Yuna's prediction percentage was 15.40%
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#67 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/9/2013 3:52:29 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Pokemon doesn't get SFF'd!

Also Tifa would lose to any of those guys in a headshot round. Remember that we once got THIS amazing pic:

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/sc2k5/b46.jpg


Tifa got TJF without actually showing her jugs. That's pretty incredible.
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#68 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/9/2013 3:57:11 AM | message detail
Crazy spike for Cirno there. Cirno was still 22 votes away from a tied update with Tifa.
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#69 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/9/2013 3:57:48 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Yeah, Deus Ex is a PC game from back before this site played PC games. Jensen shouldn't be as bad as Denton, but I don't expect much. Still debating on whether to take Marisa for second.


...then how the heck is Diablo II so strong? It was released in the same year as Deus Ex just FYI.

At least with StarCraft I can understand that game getting respect votes to become as strong as it is. I think we would take Diablo II over StarCraft without debate now however. Even a StarCraft vs. Halo re-match would be debatable methinks, although I guess we should just choose StarCraft and be done with it.

Speaking of which, you guys think Shadow of the Colossus thrives on "respect voting"? Makes sense that it would catch that against MGS2 and MGS4 - both infamous for hype backlash.
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#70 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/9/2013 4:01:18 AM | message detail
I just woke up.I have to say.
1)15% for Yuna?I thought it was some kind of mistake at first.But of course in this site MC loses to Yuna.I mean he barely beat Claire!This site really doesn't care about western characters.
2)Tifa is killing here.She has 62%.I was expecting the most to have 55% since we have Chun Li here which everyone recognizes and a Touhou character which people care actually.
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#71 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/9/2013 4:04:53 AM | message detail
I honestly think Tifa will overperform against any female character. Like, even when Zelda was strong and getting 57% on Aerith, I think Tifa would've beaten her (and it's a shame we never got that match, although we almost did!). She is basically THE video game girl on this site (stand aside, Lara Croft), and I think it shows whenever she faces another female character. I said beforehand that this was a very favorable matchup for Tifa despite what FFVII had done up to this point simply because she was facing two other females.

(And no, Samus is not THE video game girl despite being stronger! Tifa already showed that Samus loses a lot of strength when you reduce her to JUST being a girl!)
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#72 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/9/2013 4:08:10 AM | message detail
Also, you guys get to laugh at the casuals for siding with Master Chief now!

14% of Gurus had Hayabusa beating Chief, compared to 16% of the site.

And while Sub-Zero's 20% round 1 prediction percentage is still a round 1 record, it was still probably a better showing than B8 put up that year!
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#73 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/9/2013 4:15:21 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
I honestly think Tifa will overperform against any female character. Like, even when Zelda was strong and getting 57% on Aerith, I think Tifa would've beaten her (and it's a shame we never got that match, although we almost did!). She is basically THE video game girl on this site (stand aside, Lara Croft), and I think it shows whenever she faces another female character. I said beforehand that this was a very favorable matchup for Tifa despite what FFVII had done up to this point simply because she was facing two other females.

(And no, Samus is not THE video game girl despite being stronger! Tifa already showed that Samus loses a lot of strength when you reduce her to JUST being a girl!)


For the record, outside the female bracket, the only time we saw Tifa against another female character was in Round 2 of 2008, when she and Jill Valentine were both eliminated.

Also there were plenty of other factors in Tifa vs. Samus - Kingdom Hearts II being new, Samus being an obvious winner, okay now I can't really think of anything else. But I still don't think that Samus would lose THAT much from getting a Zero Suit pic anymore. ZSS should be well-known enough by now, instead of the practical non-entity that she was back in 2006. It also doesn't help that ZSS might as well be a Brawl creation since the Zero Suit isn't seen very often in Samus's own games.

Then again, maybe this is all wishful thinking since I'm a huge fan of ZSS (and NOT for the sex appeal, holy crap). Then again, Other M is my 2nd favorite game in the series (behind only Prime) so I guess you can take my opinions there with a grain of salt
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#74 | Swarles_Barkley | Posted 8/9/2013 4:17:16 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
I honestly think Tifa will overperform against any female character. Like, even when Zelda was strong and getting 57% on Aerith, I think Tifa would've beaten her (and it's a shame we never got that match, although we almost did!). She is basically THE video game girl on this site (stand aside, Lara Croft), and I think it shows whenever she faces another female character. I said beforehand that this was a very favorable matchup for Tifa despite what FFVII had done up to this point simply because she was facing two other females.

(And no, Samus is not THE video game girl despite being stronger! Tifa already showed that Samus loses a lot of strength when you reduce her to JUST being a girl!)


I don't know about this, she did get almost 44% on Sephy. Tifa's just pretty legit I think.
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#75 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/9/2013 4:23:10 AM | message detail | (edited)
Samus actually finished higher than Sephiroth in the stats that year though. Though then again Samus was probably stronger in 2010 than in 2006, and there's a good chance that she's still at her 2010 level now.

That being said, I can see her significantly disappointing next round. If you think Samus SFFd both Isaac and Sandbag, her first round performance suddenly doesn't look so good.

As for Tifa, Big Daddy's earlier flop points towards Tifa overperforming on Sephiroth thanks to receiving "not Sephiroth" votes.
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#76 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/9/2013 5:07:40 AM | message detail | (edited)
Seph was getting anti-voted like crazy after beating Missingno. I wouldn't trust that figure. Her 2008 results are probably a better representation of how that matchup goes in more normal circumstances. But hey, we haven't had a proper read on Tifa since the year she arrived (female bracket weirdness, missed contest, Sephiroth SFF, weird Sephiroth SFF) so she might actually be a beast nowadays. Looking forward to Tifa vs. Auron.
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#77 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/9/2013 4:33:23 AM | message detail | (edited)
Yeah, Tifa did a whopping 10% better against Sephiroth (I refuse to call him "Sephy" - it's a complete disgrace to that legendary soldier) in 2010 than in her final match in 2008. Definitely something fishy.

Tifa got 37.63% on Sephiroth in Round 1 of 2008. Either way, whose idea was it to make this into a rivalry? This is even worse than that Snake/Knuckles crap in our first three contests.

But you know what's even worse than that? Dante and Leon will meet again in Round 3 of this contest! I guess since it was supposed to happen last time but didn't, it has to happen this time! Man...oh wait Squirtle will probably upset Dante because hahahaha Dante you suck.

(actually I think it'll be more out of Squirtle's strength...actually I'm starting to have second thoughts on that. Squirtle beating Dante just sounds so wrong)
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#78 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/9/2013 4:46:43 AM | message detail
From what I'm reading on 4chan, it sounds like they tried to rally for Yuna yesterday based on these messages:

http://i.imgur.com/HNAFnSR.png

The only reason we didn't notice the rally is because it happened at the start of the match. I believe it also explains why Master Chief was gaining percentage for the whole match.


Here is another post from 4chan - http://i.imgur.com/Dl4IUyg.png

In that post, the person is referring to the whole night/day match thing, since very few Europeans are online at the start of a night match.
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#79 | --Smurf-- | Posted 8/9/2013 5:06:34 AM | message detail
Denzokuken posted...
Super performance from Tifa! If this holds on and Tidus does well I think Smurf's badass decline theory will have to be considered! Ahem.


From mockery to consideration in just one day!


-LusterSoldier- posted...
From what I'm reading on 4chan, it sounds like they tried to rally for Yuna yesterday based on these messages:



The only reason we didn't notice the rally is because it happened at the start of the match. I believe it also explains why Master Chief was gaining percentage for the whole match.


Here is another post from 4chan -

In that post, the person is referring to the whole night/day match thing, since very few Europeans are online at the start of a night match.


I do remember the guy doing the Catherine rally was Irish, the guy in the cirno thread at the moment says he's from Manchester.
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#80 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 8/9/2013 5:07:58 AM | message detail
I'm slightly more impressed with Tifa's performance here in Round One than Sephiroth's. Cirno's obviously no Little Mac, but still.

Calling it right now. Tifa is the Link killer. Dilly dally shilly shally.
#81 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/9/2013 5:26:48 AM | message detail
--Smurf-- posted...
Chief 12% and last, Ireland always gets it right. n_n


In light of the recent discovery that 4chan has been relying on their European userbase to fuel a lot of the rallies in this contest, it seems Chief's percentage in Ireland is a lot lower than it normally should have been. For this contest, I have been running a script that tracks each country's percentage over the course of the entire poll. Looking back at my archives for yesterday's match, Yuna had 92.50% in Ireland at 12:15 PM EST. That's a total of 40 votes from Ireland in just the first 15 minutes of the match. Overall, the match finished with 126 votes from Ireland.

Other unusual results from Ireland:

56.52% for Tharja - There was an morning rally for Tharja
49.29% for Peacock - Big Boss didn't even win the popular vote in Ireland
54.37% for Big Daddy - I remember there was a rally attempt on 4chan to push Big Daddy ahead of Lloyd
19.70% for Catherine - The percentage is very low since the rally started after 12:00 AM in Ireland, yet the match still managed to get a total of 132 votes from Ireland
36.54% for Teemo - I don't remember any 4chan rallies for Teemo, but there were attempts on Reddit and the LoL forums
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#82 | --Smurf-- | Posted 8/9/2013 5:40:13 AM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
--Smurf-- posted...
Chief 12% and last, Ireland always gets it right. n_n


In light of the recent discovery that 4chan has been relying on their European userbase to fuel a lot of the rallies in this contest, it seems Chief's percentage in Ireland is a lot lower than it normally should have been. For this contest, I have been running a script that tracks each country's percentage over the course of the entire poll. Looking back at my archives for yesterday's match, Yuna had 92.50% in Ireland at 12:15 PM EST. That's a total of 40 votes from Ireland in just the first 15 minutes of the match. Overall, the match finished with 126 votes from Ireland.

Other unusual results from Ireland:

56.52% for Tharja - There was an morning rally for Tharja
49.29% for Peacock - Big Boss didn't even win the popular vote in Ireland
54.37% for Big Daddy - I remember there was a rally attempt on 4chan to push Big Daddy ahead of Lloyd
19.70% for Catherine - The percentage is very low since the rally started after 12:00 AM in Ireland, yet the match still managed to get a total of 132 votes from Ireland
36.54% for Teemo - I don't remember any 4chan rallies for Teemo, but there were attempts on Reddit and the LoL forums


What confuses me from that list is Catherine, the rally on /v/ was squarely in support of her and was having a notable impact for her in the poll when it started.
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#83 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 8/9/2013 5:47:43 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
If that's not evidence TJF exists, I don't know what is!

I said this elsewhere, but a Senran Kagura character rally is in order. Any character from those games would have absolutely nothing going for them but their gigantic breasts. If you take their x-stat and subtract Chester's from it, I'm confident you've just discovered the high end of TJF strength.
#84 | PSU_Jer | Posted 8/9/2013 5:48:04 AM | message detail
I'd go Squall > Tifa > Vincent > Auron at this point. I had Vincent over Tifa pre-contest, but Tifa is looking much, much better here than Vincent did in his match.

Magus's quote scares me since I have Crono in that match. A good quote could make it a little harder for Crono to get the necessary LFF beatdown. :(
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#85 | Agent M | Posted 8/9/2013 5:55:24 AM | message detail
Maybe I'm blind but I've looked everywhere, where do you see the prediction percent for each match?
#86 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/9/2013 6:05:17 AM | message detail
When are they going to fix the expert leaderboard
This thing is too crowded it's unusable
#87 | spooky96 | Posted 8/9/2013 6:07:17 AM | message detail | (edited)
Agent M posted...
Maybe I'm blind but I've looked everywhere, where do you see the prediction percent for each match?


We can't, some people know how to calculate the prediction %
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#88 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/9/2013 6:13:09 AM | message detail
or look in the graph...
#89 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/9/2013 6:22:22 AM | message detail
divide the number of people that got the match right with 15254 to get the percent.
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#90 | Denzokuken | Posted 8/9/2013 6:26:47 AM | message detail
Tifa very close to breaking 70% on Chun-Li here. That FFVII decline...
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#91 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/9/2013 6:28:06 AM | message detail
Female character SFF!
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#92 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/9/2013 6:29:06 AM | message detail
I dunno this match feels like an overperformance to me
Crazy overperformance
#93 | creativename | Posted 8/9/2013 6:37:52 AM | message detail
PSU_Jer posted...
Magus's quote scares me since I have Crono in that match. A good quote could make it a little harder for Crono to get the necessary LFF beatdown. :(

Me too.

And Pikachu winning means Sora in the Snake/Cloud match, which destroys Cloud's chances.

Can't believe the quote round might completely f*** up everything.
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#94 | GloryChaos | Posted 8/9/2013 6:48:11 AM | message detail | (edited)
You guys are over thinking this stuff way too much. A bunch of people have already shown that not everybody even reads the friggin character name. That's why pictures are so effective sometimes and that's why Big Boss sometimes gets confused for being Solid Snake and why you've seen people say, "I couldn't tell that was X character from that picture, so I voted for someone else by mistake".

If people don't even read the character name at times, what makes you think they'll read a quote?

Edit: Dang it, Cirno's not at 9% anymore.
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#95 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/9/2013 6:48:21 AM | message detail
creativename posted...
PSU_Jer posted...
Magus's quote scares me since I have Crono in that match. A good quote could make it a little harder for Crono to get the necessary LFF beatdown. :(

Me too.

And Pikachu winning means Sora in the Snake/Cloud match, which destroys Cloud's chances.

Can't believe the quote round might completely f*** up everything.


That's why I'm hoping that not everyone gets quotes. I suggested in SB's thread that we could do various things with the bottom text, like having Crono voted "most likely to save his grand-grand-grand X 300 children.
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#96 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/9/2013 6:50:35 AM | message detail
--Smurf-- posted...
What confuses me from that list is Catherine, the rally on /v/ was squarely in support of her and was having a notable impact for her in the poll when it started.


I do remember seeing a Neku rally on /v/ as well, but there were very few posts compared to the Catherine rally. I wonder if the Neku rally actually had an effect on Ireland's results since Neku got over 60% there.

Also, I have officially confirmed another case of rallying based on the results from Ireland:

50.49% for Pyramid Head - What caught my attention was seeing Pyramid Head jumping from 27.66% to 27.92% in the poll updates between 10:36 AM and 11:06 AM. For Ireland's results, Pyramid Head had 28.57% at 10:45 AM before jumping up to 47.92% at 10:55 AM. Ireland had just 70 total votes at 10:45 AM. At 10:55 AM, there were 96 votes (the match finished with 103 votes).
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#97 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/9/2013 6:51:07 AM | message detail
Match LXIV: (1) Mario vs. (18) Duke Nukem vs. (27) Fawful

Previous Contest

Mario – 2010
81.04% against Falco Lombardi
63.16% against Big Boss
74.10% against Ike
58.38% against Mega Man
53.59% against Charizard
35.43% against Link

Duke Nukem – 2010
35.75% against Charizard

Fawful – 2010
33.22% against GlaDOS

Analysis

This match has the potential to be one of the biggest blowouts of the contest. Mario is arguably the second strongest character in the contest and with the power of SFF he can reduce this three-way into a 1v1. This match is not as weak as Mewtwo’s or Big Boss’, but Mario could challenge for third place depending on where Duke Nukem ranks now.

Now that Duke Nukem Forever has been released I expect Duke to lose a bit of strength. No matter how good the game could be it would not be able to live up to the joke and delays of Duke Nukem Forever. However, the biggest thing that will hurt him is the game turned out to be quite terrible so he does not even get a boost from appearing in a new game to offset the joke status he has lost.

Fawful was one of the weakest characters to appear in 2010, getting doubled by a GlaDOS that was not strong back then. To put it into perspective Fawful would fail to break 21% against Kirby, before SFF. Add Mario, his worst opponent where before SFF he could sextuple him there is little doubt that Mario could break 90% on the guy.

Fawful will not break Chester’s record, but he could be one of the weakest characters in the unadjusted stats. Duke Nukem has shown to have strength in the past, but I am expecting him to drop now that the joke is over. Breaking 70% is possible as is going for the third highest percent of the contest.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Mario > Duke Nukem and Fawful

charmander6000’s Prediction: Mario – 71.36%, Duke Nukem – 21.93%, Fawful – 6.71%
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 49/62 Today's Picks: Tifa and Mario
#98 | Agent M | Posted 8/9/2013 6:58:40 AM | message detail
Oh, haha, forgot about that graph. And never even tried hovering the mouse over it.

Still, weird that it isn't part of the stats anymore considering all the extra detail in this revamped layout.
#99 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/9/2013 7:10:32 AM | message detail | (edited)
4chan is still going at it with their Cirno rally.

Edit: The rally is still going on despite the topic purging from /v/. While there are 2 rallies on /jp/, neither of them are on the first page, so it wouldn't be easily visible. Also, /jp/ has far less activity compared to /v/.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#100 | raytan7585 | Posted 8/9/2013 7:13:44 AM | message detail
Goddammit 4chan! Stop vote-rallying Cirno. I want her to be 9%!!
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=baUY9LFlYh0 - KokorokokoroKOKOROkokoROKokoro-chan iu na
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