Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1100

#1 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/8/2013 5:41:55 PM | message detail
I know this is REALLY early, but I wanted an excuse to post this beautiful piece of technology: http://static.ddmcdn.com/gif/1981-yamaha-1100-midnight-special-1.jpg



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Main_Page, Rest in peace Mitch Stuekerjuergen :(
#2 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/8/2013 6:13:18 PM | message detail
You wanted to post a low-res picture of an old and ugly looking motorcycle?
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Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite?
However, the Guru of the next decade so far is SuperNiceDog
#3 | redrocket_pub | Posted 8/8/2013 6:14:30 PM | message detail
Is that yours?
#4 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 8/8/2013 9:39:01 PM | message detail
Might need this soon.
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Hey, its that SuperNiceDog! Congrats to the Guru 2011 winner
#5 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/8/2013 10:58:42 PM | message detail
You guys are killing me
Why most you always overanalyze things...yeah I know stats and discussion and that's what you are supposed to do but...
a 3 hours debate of why MC dropped? and some random "xboxone backlash" theories?
creativename got it...it has nothing to do with xboxone or something...this is more like Halo no longer being relevant

Has anyone noticed Diablo did not make it into the contest? dude beat Kefka in 2005 and had Diablo 3 released last year
Say what you want about Diablo 3 but it sold well and has a metaranking of 88
Yet...no one cares about the Diablo franchise anymore because even though it WAS a good game,it got a bad name
Now...is anyone here really going to say that the sole reason for Diablo for not making the bracket is due to the auction house? I don't think so

Expect GoW Kratos to be weaker as well (though not as bad because he is more of a character and Chief is more of a series mascot..and yeah I know i'm going to get flamed for this)
#6 | ffmasterjose | Posted 8/8/2013 11:01:14 PM | message detail
You guys should try posting on CE in topics about the Character Battle. In a 20+ topic I'm usually the first to say "more votes" and etc. it's weird, but fun
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The Great GameFAQs Character Battle IX contest: 54/62 pts
NP: Tifa Lockheart > Chun-Li > Cimo
#7 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/8/2013 11:02:16 PM | message detail
Someone just posted this picture on 4chan earlier:

http://i.imgur.com/oWosjD3.jpg

It was a picture of an old post made on /v/ of who they would try to rally in the first round.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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#8 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/8/2013 11:04:38 PM | message detail
ffmasterjose posted...
You guys should try posting on CE in topics about the Character Battle. In a 20+ topic I'm usually the first to say "more votes" and etc. it's weird, but fun


Huh... in ten years here I've never thought to check what other boards were posting about the contest.
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Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif
#9 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/8/2013 11:04:47 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
Someone just posted this picture on 4chan earlier:

http://i.imgur.com/oWosjD3.jpg

It was a picture of an old post made on /v/ of who they would try to rally in the first round.


Yeah I see they are doing a "good" job
#10 | LOLContests | Posted 8/8/2013 11:14:32 PM | message detail | (edited)
How does everyone think that the pic theme for next round could possibly shake things up?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/cbnine/r2-concept-1.jpg

Getting quotes under the picture probably won't change that much, but it might make a difference in a close match. The quotes in the sample pic are from the Character IDs, but I don't know if there's room for some of them. Kefka's for example is ""I hate hate hate hate hate hate hate hate hate hate hate hate hate hate hate hate hate hate hate hate hate you!"

Looking at Division 1 we have Shepard with "I'm Commander Shepard, and this is my favorite store on the Citadel." vs. Aerith with "I'll be going now. I'll come back when it's all over."

I think Aerith's line is haunting personally, but I don't know if it will make much of a difference for the population at large. Is Shepard's quote a meme or something? I've never played any Mass Effect game.

Edit: Oh dear, imagine how much Phoenix might overperform.
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"What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!"
This is Yesmar.
#11 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/8/2013 11:13:56 PM | message detail
69% and rising, sad days.

Well, at least Square's got a string of good performances now to hang their hat on, whatever their other circumstances.
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#12 | The Owner of FF9 | Posted 8/8/2013 11:13:59 PM | message detail
I'm just soaking in all the (what I know will be) limited amount of time that I'm in the Top 50, don't mind me.
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Operation Rainfall: Three for Three
Xenoblade Chronicles, The Last Story & Pandora's Tower - released
#13 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/8/2013 11:16:46 PM | message detail
Oh god we can finally have Zidane "ooo,soft" quote
Zidane>Squirtle/Dante CONFIRMED!!!
#14 | ffmasterjose | Posted 8/8/2013 11:18:34 PM | message detail
I just can't wait for Cecil to win 2 matches and feel better about taking Chief over Yuna

in retrospect that was a dumbass pick
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The Great GameFAQs Character Battle IX contest: 54/62 pts
NP: Tifa Lockheart > Chun-Li > Cimo
#15 | creativename | Posted 8/8/2013 11:20:59 PM | message detail
The letters are moving across the page.,,hallucinations. The wonder of ambien. Being drunk and high helps too but ain't asleep yet. Grr

So I don't have enough mental faculty to decide if that plan is good or stupid. What do other's think?
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#16 | ffmasterjose | Posted 8/8/2013 11:23:46 PM | message detail
Yesmar where did you get that link from? Help a brother out
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The Great GameFAQs Character Battle IX contest: 54/62 pts
NP: Tifa Lockheart > Chun-Li > Cimo
#17 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/8/2013 11:25:24 PM | message detail
so quotes make Blue even more likely to make round 3 right
#18 | LOLContests | Posted 8/8/2013 11:25:50 PM | message detail
ffmasterjose posted...
Yesmar where did you get that link from? Help a brother out


http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/66935896
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"What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!"
This is Yesmar.
#19 | creativename | Posted 8/8/2013 11:29:41 PM | message detail
Oh man Phoenix Wrighy with an "Objection!!!"
Pic and quote...the full power of PW unleashed!

I almost want red bird to advance to see what he'dd geT as a quote. Not much chance hr beats Jill though.

Also, if magus gets a "The black wind howls..." Quote is that bad for Cron? Magus might hold better than he has any right too with a good quote.

This stupid quote factor will drive us crazy!

Sorry misspellings
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#20 | ffmasterjose | Posted 8/8/2013 11:34:59 PM | message detail
I'm sure I'm not the only one laughing at how Quotes are going to be a part of this Character Battle, right?

dat full-circle
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The Great GameFAQs Character Battle IX contest: 54/62 pts
NP: Tifa Lockheart > Chun-Li > Cimo
#21 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/8/2013 11:37:13 PM | message detail
"Can't let you do that, Star Fox" would have fit perfectly with round 1. Too bad
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
#22 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/8/2013 11:42:27 PM | message detail | (edited)
creativename posted...
Oh man Phoenix Wrighy with an "Objection!!!"
Pic and quote...the full power of PW unleashed!

I almost want red bird to advance to see what he'dd geT as a quote. Not much chance hr beats Jill though.

Also, if magus gets a "The black wind howls..." Quote is that bad for Cron? Magus might hold better than he has any right too with a good quote.

This stupid quote factor will drive us crazy!

Sorry misspellings


... VS. Pika-Pika VS. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh.

I'd laugh if Magus took ten years to finally live up to his Noble Nine killer label from 10 years ago.
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Agent Triple Zero at your service!
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#23 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/8/2013 11:40:38 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
#24 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/8/2013 11:42:12 PM | message detail
Then00bAvenger posted...
"Can't let you do that, Star Fox" would have fit perfectly with round 1. Too bad


nooooooooooooooooo
#25 | -hotdogturtle-- | Posted 8/8/2013 11:43:41 PM | message detail
From: -LusterSoldier- | #007
Someone just posted this picture on 4chan earlier:

http://i.imgur.com/oWosjD3.jpg

It was a picture of an old post made on /v/ of who they would try to rally in the first round.


So basically, "who's the weakest character in each division that we can votespam for epic lulz."

And look at how successful their rallies were; they really ruined this contest for the rest of us.


...Although I am personally a big Wario fan so I wouldn't mind him getting a one time boost.
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With what? ROT-13? -CJayC
#26 | Lusankya1 | Posted 8/8/2013 11:52:32 PM | message detail | (edited)
Nanis23 posted...
-LusterSoldier- posted...
Someone just posted this picture on 4chan earlier:

http://i.imgur.com/oWosjD3.jpg

It was a picture of an old post made on /v/ of who they would try to rally in the first round.


Yeah I see they are doing a "good" job


The only thing I saw so far (which is true for years): never bet against the "big" franchises. E.g. never bet against characters from Pokemon, Final Fantasy, Mario or even Sonic.

Too bad most people always vote for the franchise and not for the characters.
#27 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/8/2013 11:56:22 PM | message detail
That claim has (fortunately) been disproven before it was first made. If most people voted for the franchise and not the characters, we wouldn't have the wide strength variance that we currently enjoy. Zelda, Final Fantasy, and Mario are the three strongest series on GameFAQs, and they all have characters that are powerhouses, midcarders, and horrible fodder.
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http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif
#28 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/9/2013 12:09:19 AM | message detail
Locke got blown out by Ness. Midna and Groose bombed out without trace. Peach didn't show up. As the tournament goes on you'll see that the likes of Zelda, Ganondorf, Vincent, Yoshi, are still weaker than the likes of Mega Man and Sonic, while Solid Snake will be a threat to anyone other than Link.
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We are living our lives
Abound with so much information
#29 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/9/2013 12:45:51 AM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
59------1------------0.00
58------1------------0.00
57------10----------80.00
56------26----------50.00
55------61----------63.93
54------101--------64.36
53------169--------49.11
52------145--------42.07
51------173--------34.10
50------212--------21.70
49------269--------18.96
48------386--------11.66
47------498--------13.05
46------661--------11.35
45------846--------9.10
44------1061------9.90
43------1094------8.96
42------1143------9.54
41------1171------10.59
40------1092------10.62
39------981--------11.11
38------817--------12.97
37------711--------13.08
36------638--------15.36
35------530--------17.17
34------464--------20.69
33------384--------21.88
32------295--------19.32
31------227--------24.23
30------202--------23.27
29------188--------30.32
28------144--------22.92
27------88----------32.95
26------81----------30.86
25------74----------33.78
24------62----------41.94
23------59----------38.98
22------39----------25.64
21------34----------35.29
20------20----------35.00
19------11----------27.27
18------9------------55.56
17------12----------25.00
16------9------------66.67
15------5------------40.00
14------4------------0.00
13------6------------66.67
12------2------------100.00
11------2------------0.00
10------1------------0.00
9--------2------------0.00
8--------1------------0.00
7--------16----------0.00
6--------0------------0.00
5--------1------------0.00
4--------5------------40.00
3--------2------------0.00
2--------3------------0.00
1--------4------------0.00
0--------1------------0.00

Master Chief kills the last -2 (59 points) bracket and kills the listed -3 (58 points) bracket but the previous -2 becomes a new -3. At -8 (53 points), there is a sharp decrease in the prediction percentage. From there, the prediction percentage quickly plummets into the single digits. It's probably a pretty safe bet that the terrible prediction percentage for the casuals is Master Chief's fault and contest knowledge was a big help in avoiding the trap. However, even those near the to were fairly divided on who would win.

5 people fell off the Top 49. Koopa95, ps2rulezzz, SubDeity, VincentLauw and dimi161 did not have Yuna winning.

13 people got it wrong and survived. Current first place CarveyFAQs, former second place Xcarvenger, KCGemini, SuorGenoveffa, AAAMitsugi, AlecTrevylan006, BlAcK_TuRtLe, Calintares, ChronoT7, Clichokeet, Crossfiyah, Flock_Masta_P and greengravy294 also did not have Yuna winning.
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#30 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/9/2013 1:04:17 AM | message detail
You forgot to mention the % prediction,which is pretty funny

Anyway no idea why I took Chief in my bracket but was so darn sure about Yuna in my expert...nothing in the contest so far was supposed to change my mind,so why it happened..I dunno
#31 | Robazoid | Posted 8/9/2013 1:16:01 AM | message detail
It's not fair, if not for my R username I could finally achieve my lifelong dream of screencapping myself on the Leaderboard

Now I need Creeper to win to have any hope
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**R.O.B.A.Z.O.I.D**
#32 | Denzokuken | Posted 8/9/2013 1:25:20 AM | message detail | (edited)
Super performance from Tifa! If this holds on and Tidus does well I think Smurf's badass decline theory will have to be considered! Ahem.
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Fine! I'll go to the store and get your Goddamn drain cleaner!
Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over....
#33 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/9/2013 1:28:04 AM | message detail
Now we just need to have a Master Chief vs. Raiden rematch next contest.
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Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC
#34 | jacko_vdz | Posted 8/9/2013 1:38:04 AM | message detail | (edited)
1337gamerpr0 posted...
so quotes make Blue even more likely to make round 3 right


Quotes can only help improve his recognition. The quote on his profile is "Unbelievable! I picked the wrong Pokemon!" which is pretty well known.

"SMELL YA LATER!" would be perfect though!

Also yay, on the bracket leaderboard for the first time this contest!
#35 | CP724 | Posted 8/9/2013 2:11:58 AM | message detail
I hope L-Block beats Auron somehow so we can see how well tifa can do on samus.
#36 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/9/2013 2:34:50 AM | message detail
It would be cool to avoid having Tifa against Auron, because the LFF will just hurt both of them when they face Samus.
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#37 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/9/2013 2:58:00 AM | message detail
Link : How about a kiss for luck?
Draven : This is where Draven shines (irony when he is going to be stomped by X and Ryu)
Draven : Draven makin' an exit!
Ryu :What's wrong? Why do you hold back? (about Draven,losing without his so-called rally)
Sonic : YOURE TOO SLOW
Dracula : What is a man?
Barret : Attack while it's tail is up!
Phoenix : The miracle never happen
Mewtwo : Quiet human,from now on i'm the one who makes the rules.
Bowser : Did somebody page the king of awesome?"
Sephiroth On your knees.( I want you to beg for forgiveness. ) (which would be nice against Morrigan for obvious reasons)
Alucard : I've come to put an end to this.
GlaDOS :Good people don't get up here. (not memorable sadly,but can be fitting for this contest)
Kefka : Gah! How dare they put me in a place like this!
Frog : Lower thine guard and thou'rt letting the enemy in.
Lugia : I have failed
Dante : I SHOULD HAVE BEEN THE ONE TO FILL YOUR DARK SOUL WITH LIGHTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT
Zidane : ooo,soft
Shadow : Hmph! Pathetic humans!
Leon : Your right hand comes off?
Magus Say, can you hear that? It's the sound of the Reaper...
Blue : SMELL YA LATER
Knuckles : I ain't gonna let it get to me, I'm just gonna creep, Down in Pumpkin Hill I gots to find my lost piece.(IT COUNTS I DONT CARE)
Tifa : Dilly Dally Shilly Shally
Ganondorf : NO NOT INTO THE PIT IT BURNS
Squall : Whatever...
Red : ...
Zero : WHAT AM I FIGHTNING FOORRRRRR
#38 | scaryice | Posted 8/9/2013 3:07:24 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Link : How about a kiss for luck?


http://www.secrettoeverybody.com/images/foundmirror.png
#39 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/9/2013 3:12:18 AM | message detail
Cirno rally spotted on 4chan.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#40 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/9/2013 3:14:21 AM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
Cirno rally spotted on 4chan.


When will they understand we are talking about thousands of votes here
Even when the votals are so low,their "rally" is useless
#41 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/9/2013 3:15:59 AM | message detail | (edited)
Apparently the rally for Cirno is enough to make her stall Chun-Lu for ~40 minutes so far at least. That's not bad. Especially when you consider it was a 28% to 10% deal
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#42 | Lopen | Posted 8/9/2013 3:16:35 AM | message detail
Literally rallying to deny my analysis crew accuracy point dumbasses
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#43 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/9/2013 3:17:47 AM | message detail
Oh man if Eggman made it into the second round I would totally give him a YOU KNOW WHAT THEY SAY quote
#44 | Whiskey_Nick | Posted 8/9/2013 3:17:48 AM | message detail
I'm curious when Luster sleeps. He seems to post at all times of day and always be on AIM. Not talking on AIM mind you, just observing.
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#45 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/9/2013 3:18:06 AM | message detail
There are currently 2 Cirno rallies on 4chan - a rally on /v/ and another one on /jp/.
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#46 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/9/2013 3:18:27 AM | message detail
Also makes you think twice about taking Jensen over Marisa
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
#47 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/9/2013 3:18:54 AM | message detail
Then00bAvenger posted...
Apparently the rally for Cirno is enough to make her stall Chun-Lu for ~40 minutes so far at least. That's not bad. Especially when you consider it was a 28% to 10% deal


But it's pointless
She will not beat Tifa,won';t pass Chun Li...and won't even get close to her
This is just to give her like..4% at max...it changes nothing
#48 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/9/2013 3:23:43 AM | message detail
Then00bAvenger posted...
Also makes you think twice about taking Jensen over Marisa


I have been thinking about that upset, but I feel like Cirno only getting 10% here is that great of a sign that Marisa can get enough percentage to beat Adam.
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#49 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/9/2013 3:26:07 AM | message detail
True, but Cirno was a lost cause and she still managed a short burst like that.

Marisa would most likely be in range of Jensen so there would be more motivation to rally
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
#50 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/9/2013 3:26:36 AM | message detail
Rikku has to beat it in a day match (bad for Rikku) while dealing with another attractive female RPG character which makes the block stand out like crazy (BAD for Rikku).

That sounds vaguely familiar, for some reason. Didn't we see something like this happen fairly recently?

Also aw yeah Tifa domination

In terms of FF near elites, I'd go:

Squall > Vincent > Auron > Tifa

Not quite ready to crown Tifa the #3 FFVII character, but I doubt there's that big of a gap between the 1st and 4th strongest in that group. With a favorable pic as Tifa is often wont to get, she could beat any of these guys. Men are willing to cast aside their FFVII hatred to vote for those jugs. If that's not evidence TJF exists, I don't know what is!
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