Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1099

#251 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/8/2013 1:49:05 PM | message detail
I found out that I did some mis-counting, so with that said here's the updated list of first round losers who have been in the most contest matches.

Master Chief: 19
Ryu Hayabusa: 12
Scorpion: 12
Pac-Man: 11
Fox: 11
KOS-MOS: 10
Cats: 9
Vercetti: 9
Ocelot: 9
Captain Falcon: 8
Tails: 8

Since there were loads of 7s (the likes of Ratchet, Zack, Laharl, and Wesker), I figured to stop at 8. Contest records for the remaining ones after the top five:

KOS-MOS: 3-7
Cats: 0-9
Vercetti: 4-5 (he can thank this contest for his record dropping below .500)
Ocelot: 3-6 (2 of his wins being in the villains contest)
Captain Falcon: 3-5
Tails: 1-7
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#252 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/8/2013 1:49:52 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Also, you guys who thought Dragonborn could be Shepard level were probably right! This is probably around where Shepard was after one game, too!


If Mass Effect hadn't become so huge, it's possible Shepard would have stayed at that level.
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#253 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/8/2013 1:53:11 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
charmander6000 posted...
Master Chief in the day is always crazy, that was a 0.14% increase


And only a 15 vote cut!

Our poor vote totals.


it's worse than Rivary Rumble isn't it so far
enjoy the sub-50k 24 hour matches
#254 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/8/2013 1:54:04 PM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
If Mass Effect hadn't become so huge, it's possible Shepard would have stayed at that level.


Thanks, Captain Obvious.
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#255 | The_Djoker | Posted 8/8/2013 2:02:20 PM | message detail | (edited)
lol @ people who had MC progressing. I can't believe he was picked as favourite. It's as if people don't do research on this site. Halo has been dead for a while now. Yes Halo 4 came out but to what? moderate site hype and it did awful at the GOTY awards. The XONE negativity also didn't help. Yuna was always relatively strong when compared to fodder. I'm afraid to say MC is now fodder level.
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#256 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/8/2013 2:11:43 PM | message detail | (edited)
Master Chief was definitely much better in 2007, but a lot of the reason he probably did that well in the semifinal was the outside attention generated by L-Block. Seems obvious he'd get stronger when gaming sites with more mainstream tastes notice us and vote. It also helps that much of his fanbase probably wasn't going to abandon him for anything, even with L-block at the top crunching everybody.

And if you give any credit at all to fourways diluting anti-votes, then if he beats Luigi/Ganondorf/Dante one-on-one that year, it's not by much.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2915
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2921

Dante's not being LFFed and he's breaking 45% on Chief in the second poll, and Dante probably doesn't beat Ganondorf or Luigi in a fair match.

Then again, Chief is weird and lolfourways
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#257 | Haste_2 | Posted 8/8/2013 2:12:27 PM | message detail
Huh, MC's doing better now. If he keep closing his percentage in, I won't feel so bad about having picked wrong. Certainly not nearly as bad as switching to Groose and Booker because of Board 8. Yet, it was Board 8 that tried to persuade me to pick Yuna....
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#258 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/8/2013 2:15:00 PM | message detail
IMAGINE Duke Nukem Forever making Duke Nukem get anti voted so bad that SFF'd Fawful will beat him!
#259 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/8/2013 2:19:34 PM | message detail
I don't think you know how bad regular Fawful was.
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#260 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/8/2013 2:20:58 PM | message detail
If you want to get an idea of how far our votals have fallen, consider that a 12-hour night match between Valkyria Chronicles and Disgaea (two niche SRPGs with overlapping fanbases) in the GOTD contest has outdrawn every non-Draven night match and most day matches so far this contest (the last two matches to beat its figure featured Snake and Crono, though the early divisions saw day matches reach it quite frequently).
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#261 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/8/2013 2:52:00 PM | message detail
Kotetsu534 posted...
If you want to get an idea of how far our votals have fallen, consider that a 12-hour night match between Valkyria Chronicles and Disgaea (two niche SRPGs with overlapping fanbases) in the GOTD contest has outdrawn every non-Draven night match and most day matches so far this contest (the last two matches to beat its figure featured Snake and Crono, though the early divisions saw day matches reach it quite frequently).


isn't it actually lower than Rivalry Rumble's 12-hour matches
(speaking of RR, there wasn't a single match other than the 3rd place match that broke 60k votes was there)
#262 | pjbasis | Posted 8/8/2013 3:00:30 PM | message detail
Careful, Mario & Luigi 4 is coming out soon, someone make sure it's not on the day of Fawful's match!
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#263 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/8/2013 3:19:51 PM | message detail
pjbasis posted...
Careful, Mario & Luigi 4 is coming out soon, someone make sure it's not on the day of Fawful's match!


should do a series contest in the fall where Pokemon's semifinal match is on X/Y's release date
just to see how hilariously lopsided the match would be
#264 | xp1337 | Posted 8/8/2013 3:41:43 PM | message detail
It sounds like I missed quite the spectacle not being here when this match started!
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#265 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/8/2013 4:08:22 PM | message detail
I wonder how many brackets are gonna get stung this time...?
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#266 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/8/2013 4:39:08 PM | message detail | (edited)
1337gamerpr0 posted...
it's worse than Rivary Rumble isn't it so far
enjoy the sub-50k 24 hour matches


There were 24-hour matches that got under 50000 votes in the Rivalry Rumble. I do think this contest will have some matches over 50000 votes.


Kotetsu534 posted...
If you want to get an idea of how far our votals have fallen, consider that a 12-hour night match between Valkyria Chronicles and Disgaea (two niche SRPGs with overlapping fanbases) in the GOTD contest has outdrawn every non-Draven night match and most day matches so far this contest (the last two matches to beat its figure featured Snake and Crono, though the early divisions saw day matches reach it quite frequently).


We had better vote totals near the beginning of the contest, but they have fallen off since the first week. The same thing happened with Rivalry Rumble, where the vote totals were better for the first several days of the contest before dropping off.


1337gamerpr0 posted...
isn't it actually lower than Rivalry Rumble's 12-hour matches
(speaking of RR, there wasn't a single match other than the 3rd place match that broke 60k votes was there)


On average, the 12-hour matches for this contest are even worse than Rivalry Rumble's 12-hour matches.
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#267 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/8/2013 4:40:07 PM | message detail
Yuna does indeed enact vengeance for 2007, easily defeating Master Chief in his best time, and I'm happy to see one of my favourite characters get to do something cool for once. Chief manages to hold the US by nearly 1% of the vote (with a little over 4 hours to go) despite trailing by over 1500 votes and 5% total, so he doesn't go down without making a small mark. Claire Redfield holds up well, as I expected, and could have won a match with a better draw.

Round 1, Match 63

(7) Tifa Lockheart
(12) Cirno
(21) Chun-Li

From one FF female to another, only Tifa's competition is much weaker than Yuna's, and she's always been much stronger. Reimu managed to get 18% against Barret and Layton, but I doubt whether Cirno can do as well against a stronger FFVII character and in an all female poll. Chun-Li once got 40% on Yuna, so if she can get close to that you might see me hyping a crazy round two upset (spoilers: she doesn't get anything near that).

Bracket: Tifa
Expert: Tifa > Chun-Li > Cirno
Oracle: Tifa - 60%; Chun-Li - 28%; Cirno - 12%
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#268 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/8/2013 4:43:31 PM | message detail
I was going through next division matches when I realized that I stopped and hesitated on Jensen Vs. Marisa

Pretty sad when someone makes you hesitate on a Touhou character. I'm still not really sure which way to go there
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#269 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 8/8/2013 4:47:52 PM | message detail
So how was it that Reimu managed to get over 6000 votes?! Even if we go crazy and say that 2000 of them were rallied from 4chan, it still makes no sense for Touhou to be that good.
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#270 | pjbasis | Posted 8/8/2013 4:49:23 PM | message detail
If Cirno does as well as Reimu I'm going for Touhou to second place
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#271 | xp1337 | Posted 8/8/2013 4:49:30 PM | message detail
Then00bAvenger posted...
I was going through next division matches when I realized that I stopped and hesitated on Jensen Vs. Marisa

Pretty sad when someone makes you hesitate on a Touhou character. I'm still not really sure which way to go there

Yes.

I can't tell if the fact that I'm debating that is hilarious or sad.
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GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#272 | superange128 | Posted 8/8/2013 4:57:51 PM | message detail
Make Sure to vote in the "Round 2 Image Concepts" topic made by SBAllen

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/66935896
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#273 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/8/2013 5:20:48 PM | message detail
And the quote contest makes its appearance
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#274 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 8/8/2013 5:26:04 PM | message detail
So, "quote factor" for round 2?
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#275 | Lopen | Posted 8/8/2013 5:27:28 PM | message detail
Ugh what a terrible match.

I don't think who I've wanted to win a debatable match has come through yet since Tharja. I mean I've called a good few of em correctly but ugh Yuna crushing Chief this site.
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#276 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/8/2013 5:34:11 PM | message detail
I see you haven't changed, Longshot Lopen.
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#277 | Lopen | Posted 8/8/2013 5:36:04 PM | message detail
I mean I fully expected to have Chief cost me points this year but that's because I felt like being zany and having him beat Tifa too (which I'm still saying will be a better choice than Dragonborn > Tifa) but literally Yuna my gosh you have to be a completely unremarkable low carder for Yuna to kick your ass.
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#278 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/8/2013 5:40:11 PM | message detail | (edited)
Yuna's not that bad, and it's only a 54% victory anyway

Master Chief doesn't really look any worse here than he did in 2010.

You could argue he looks better.
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#279 | Lopen | Posted 8/8/2013 5:41:30 PM | message detail
Yuna's never really had any good wins I'm not convinced she's stronger than your Nesses of the world.

... oh god. Okay, well at least it isn't Ness here, I suppose. I think I'd have to close my account if Ness thrashed Chief.
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#280 | Janus5000 | Posted 8/8/2013 5:54:37 PM | message detail
look on the bright side, at least he hasn't lost to a bag of sand yet
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#281 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/8/2013 5:55:04 PM | message detail
Chun-Li would win the next match in a just world.
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#282 | creativename | Posted 8/8/2013 5:59:41 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
And the quote contest makes its appearance

augh

just what we need

terrible
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#283 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/8/2013 6:00:43 PM | message detail
Chief's made this quite a bit more respectable, though his embarrassment doesn't lie in the final numbers, but in all of the advantages he couldn't utilize.

- It's a day match and he might be the best day character of them all
- As others have said, he has performed better in multi-way polls, likely because his anti-votes are mitigated
- He stands out significantly against two female characters who look and even pose the same
- Both of his opponents are night characters

And he's still losing easily. Now that Microsoft is significantly disliked around here and Halo has sorta dwindled as a series, it's very difficult to picture a bright future for Chief in these contests.
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#284 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/8/2013 6:12:06 PM | message detail
I truly doubt this has anything to do with this supposed backlash. Outside of this topic, I haven't seen any Xbox negativity outside of the "console wars" loser crowd since they reversed the stupid policies.

This is entirely blamed on the lower votals, and the core GameFAQs demographic being sexually frustrated 25 year olds that will vote for anything with a set of animated breasts. I'm half expecting Lightening to go to round 3, but then I remember the other thing jobless 30 year old virgins love is Pokemon games, and I weep.
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#285 | Lopen | Posted 8/8/2013 6:15:42 PM | message detail
Yeah my theory is it's definitely vote totals going down. Chief's strength has always waxed and waned with vote totals-- no coincidence his strongest year by far was 2007 (well okay, sorta coincidence... I'm not going to say that was mostly vote totals but it probably had an effect). People who picked against Chief because of "XBox backlash" are just a case of "right pick wrong reason" I think.
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#286 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/8/2013 6:16:06 PM | message detail
Microsoft has remained unpopular among gamers despite reversing their most criticized Xbox One features. The company has just had an awful few months (worse than the months leading up to and directly following Sony's PS3 launch), and as the only mascot that Microsoft the game company truly has, it's completely logical to think this has hurt Chief. If Sony had been the one pushing locks on used games and mandatory online connections and Microsoft came in and "saved the day," I really doubt Chief would be doing this bad.
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#287 | ZFS | Posted 8/8/2013 6:16:23 PM | message detail
Well I'm glad Xbox backlash isn't the problem it's the sexual frustration instead
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#288 | Karma Hunter (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/8/2013 6:17:42 PM | message detail
augh NOW we have quotes

and Otacon's not in Round 2

this is a disaster
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#289 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/8/2013 6:18:36 PM | message detail
Chief seemed much stronger in 2004 (relative to 2003), and IIRC, 2003 had notably higher votals. The votals also remained constant (or even blipped up a hair) in 2008, yet Chief seemed undeniably weaker there relative to 2007. The guy's two most impressive years were the two years when Microsoft was pumping more money into Halo than any other gaming ad campaign had ever seen.
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#290 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/8/2013 6:20:02 PM | message detail
Lopen posted...
Yeah my theory is it's definitely vote totals going down. Chief's strength has always waxed and waned with vote totals-- no coincidence his strongest year by far was 2007 (well okay, sorta coincidence... I'm not going to say that was mostly vote totals but it probably had an effect). People who picked against Chief because of "XBox backlash" are just a case of "right pick wrong reason" I think.


Chief looked a lot weaker in 2008 than 2007 despite 2008 having almost as many votes as the 2007 contest. Chief is a guy that does well among the casual visitors and higher vote totals means more casuals. The current vote totals right now clearly hurts the casual visitors more than the hardcore visitors.
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#291 | ZFS | Posted 8/8/2013 6:20:14 PM | message detail
You guys are getting too caught up in that line, I think. Chief didn't lose solely because Xbox and Microsoft are hated p, but it didn't do him any favors as the representation of the Xbox and Microsoft. If Microsoft was riding high on hype and praise, people would likely be talking about Chief benefiting from that. It doesn't mean it takes him from elite levels or fodder depending in which it is, but working with everything else (low vote totals, Halo not being as popular, and Xbox backlash) all work together against a casual character who does best when the hype is high.
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#292 | Lopen | Posted 8/8/2013 6:20:44 PM | message detail
I think getting 60-40'd by peak FF7 Aeris is a better showing than going 50-50 with Frog no matter what the stats say, personally.
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#293 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 8/8/2013 6:21:22 PM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
I truly doubt this has anything to do with this supposed backlash. Outside of this topic, I haven't seen any Xbox negativity outside of the "console wars" loser crowd since they reversed the stupid policies.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5125 the backlash has lessened, but it is there. I don't think that voters took it out on Chief, though.

This is entirely blamed on the lower votals, and the core GameFAQs demographic being sexually frustrated 25 year olds that will vote for anything with a set of animated breasts. I'm half expecting Lightening to go to round 3, but then I remember the other thing jobless 30 year old virgins love is Pokemon games, and I weep.

Yeah, pretty much. Fewer votals means a more hardcore voter base, and casual characters like Chief lose support, while– wait, what? Do you insult people/things every time you get a match wrong?
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#294 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/8/2013 6:21:29 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Microsoft has remained unpopular among gamers despite reversing their most criticized Xbox One features. The company has just had an awful few months (worse than the months leading up to and directly following Sony's PS3 launch), and as the only mascot that Microsoft the game company truly has, it's completely logical to think this has hurt Chief. If Sony had been the one pushing locks on used games and mandatory online connections and Microsoft came in and "saved the day," I really doubt Chief would be doing this bad.


Microsoft has remained unpopular amongst r/gaming posters, the most fickle bunch of losers on the internet.

Remember all of the other r/gaming "outrages"? Every time they 'boycott' something, there's a post from the day after that thing comes out with half of the people on the subreddit currently playing that game. Redditors are keyboard warriors through and through. When the console comes out, they will buy it and like it.

Also, the people that are "in the know" on the goings on of the next gen are a very very small minority of the internet.

I remain unconvinced, and I'm getting tired of the 2 or 3 new posters in this topic insisting that there's some validity to this argument.
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#295 | Karma Hunter (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/8/2013 6:23:11 PM | message detail
Yeah I don't think Chief was impressive in 2004, really. Frog was a fraud, one equal to Liquid Snake in Solid's worst year. Beating DK and posting that number directly on Crono or even his loss to Sub-Zero on the day of Armageddon's release was more impressive than that.
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#296 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/8/2013 6:23:21 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
Lopen posted...
Yeah my theory is it's definitely vote totals going down. Chief's strength has always waxed and waned with vote totals-- no coincidence his strongest year by far was 2007 (well okay, sorta coincidence... I'm not going to say that was mostly vote totals but it probably had an effect). People who picked against Chief because of "XBox backlash" are just a case of "right pick wrong reason" I think.


Chief looked a lot weaker in 2008 than 2007 despite 2008 having almost as many votes as the 2007 contest. Chief is a guy that does well among the casual visitors and higher vote totals means more casuals. The current vote totals right now clearly hurts the casual visitors more than the hardcore visitors.


Ya, there's absolutely no explanation for why Chief did so well in 2k7. None whatsoever.














GAME FUEL!
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#297 | Lopen | Posted 8/8/2013 6:23:33 PM | message detail
As for that being a logical conclusion well it's logical in the same sense that it's logical to assume that global warming means it should be hotter in your hometown this summer than it was last year, but to me it doesn't feel like something that would be indicative of how Chief voters would think. It's one of those ideas that looks good on paper but doesn't actually make sense if you think how voters are going to act.

At best it means he's going to convert less neutral votes but honestly Yuna + Claire + Master Chief is a pretty broad appeal base and Chief was already terrible at converting those being the most anti-voted guy in contests.
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#298 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/8/2013 6:24:21 PM | message detail
Lopen posted...
I think getting 60-40'd by peak FF7 Aeris is a better showing than going 50-50 with Frog no matter what the stats say, personally.

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#299 | ZFS | Posted 8/8/2013 6:25:49 PM | message detail
What does reddit have to do with anything
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#300 | creativename | Posted 8/8/2013 6:27:20 PM | message detail
Lopen posted...
Yeah my theory is it's definitely vote totals going down. Chief's strength has always waxed and waned with vote totals-- no coincidence his strongest year by far was 2007 (well okay, sorta coincidence... I'm not going to say that was mostly vote totals but it probably had an effect). People who picked against Chief because of "XBox backlash" are just a case of "right pick wrong reason" I think.

Definitely has nothing to do with vote totals, and very likely nothing to do with XBOne backlash. Chief just isn't the type of character to remain strong after his franchise becomes irrelevant, and Halo 4 didn't make a splash at all. His franchise is low profile these days and he's been suffering from that.

The fact that the Game Fuel Halo 3 monster hype year was during a time of high vote totals is indeed coincidence. The format is coincidence as well, for some reason people still want to say he's a 4-way guy but that theory went out the window with his 2008 performance. He went from thrashing Dante to losing to Dante. That debunked the whole format thing completely and conclusively.

As I said before this match, he lost to Hayabusa last contest and has only had reason to decrease since then.

I really doubt Chief will ever be strong again. He can't survive being the face of an under the radar franchise, he needs some serious hype for the next Halo game for that franchise to become relevant again.
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