Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1099

#201 | The Mana Sword | Posted 8/8/2013 12:00:26 PM | message detail
Yeah, from purely anecdotal evidence I've seen around the Internet, a lot of people do seem to actually like Lightning but are hesitant to admit it because it's kind of taboo to like anything from FFXIII or something.
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#202 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 8/8/2013 12:02:27 PM | message detail
Can the Comeback King do it again?! That is, demolish an 8% barrier with no ASV?! …with over 1/3 of the vote already in?

*sigh* one less bracket. I thought Yuna might suck since we haven't seen her in a non-SFF match since 2008 and Halo 4 is selling very well, but whatever.
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#203 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/8/2013 12:06:12 PM | message detail
If Yuna keeps dropping and Claire remains steady, Ms. Redfield could end the match close to 40% against FFX's probable #2 (I'd take Yuna over Tidus). Claire has just over 42% on ol' Chief right now. Not a bad performance at all considering she hasn't seen a contest for seven years.
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#204 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/8/2013 12:06:22 PM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
So in this match we have battle of the asses and in the next match battle of the boobs?


Tifa picture is crazy
They are...far too big...much bigger than her official art
#205 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/8/2013 12:07:09 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
If Yuna keeps dropping and Claire remains steady, Ms. Redfield could end the match close to 40% against FFX's probable #2 (I'd take Yuna over Tidus). Claire has just over 42% on ol' Chief right now. Not a bad performance at all considering she hasn't seen a contest for seven years.


Which has me thinking both Chief and Yuna have dropped. Claire doing this good can't be purely explained by ass factor.
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#206 | swordz9 | Posted 8/8/2013 12:08:13 PM | message detail
What is the Tifa image from anyways? It looks like fanart to me.
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#207 | superange128 | Posted 8/8/2013 12:22:09 PM | message detail
swordz9 posted...
What is the Tifa image from anyways? It looks like fanart to me.


In game Dissidia 012 model
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#208 | scifi1980 | Posted 8/8/2013 12:23:21 PM | message detail
This pole makes me sick. I purposely went against Yuna/FF10 one of my favorite games because so many people swing from Halo's nuts and naturally Halo is losing.



If I stuck with Yuna just based on liking that game and being a Final Fantasy fan, she would probably be losing:(
#209 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/8/2013 12:26:13 PM | message detail
Yea scifi1980, hate to break it to you but the voters really are waiting to see which character you chose in your bracket before voting.
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#210 | swordz9 | Posted 8/8/2013 12:26:29 PM | message detail
Oh, I've never played the Dissidias and didn't even know Tifa was in them.
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#211 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/8/2013 12:29:55 PM | message detail
Ya know this is even funnier when you go back and look at just how beastly Chief was back in 2007. Doubling Yuna. More than tripling Liquid Snake. Brushing Dante aside with ease. I think Game Fuel Chief would pull a 70/30 on 2013 Chief, and that has to be - without a doubt - the biggest fall from grace we've ever had. Not even Magus has fallen that hard.
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#212 | Karma Hunter (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/8/2013 12:31:26 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Ya know this is even funnier when you go back and look at just how beastly Chief was back in 2007. Doubling Yuna. More than tripling Liquid Snake. Brushing Dante aside with ease. I think Game Fuel Chief would pull a 70/30 on 2013 Chief, and that has to be - without a doubt - the biggest fall from grace we've ever had. Not even Magus has fallen that hard.


It's probably not fair but... 2007 Finals L-Block.
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#213 | Crimson Dragoon | Posted 8/8/2013 12:34:23 PM | message detail
Master Chief is a very much 'in the moment' character.

When you're playing Halo you're all 'aw yeah MC pew pew aliens needleeeeeeeeer' and then you're done.

And then you step back.

And once you step back, no one remembers Chief fondly for some reason. Except Lopen.
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#214 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/8/2013 12:34:44 PM | message detail
Come awn =P

Oh and also, keeping this in mind:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1731

2013 1v1 match: Master Chief vs. Crash Bandicoot

I'm thinking the stats topic favors Crash today, right?
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#215 | --Smurf-- | Posted 8/8/2013 12:35:46 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Ya know this is even funnier when you go back and look at just how beastly Chief was back in 2007. Doubling Yuna. More than tripling Liquid Snake. Brushing Dante aside with ease. I think Game Fuel Chief would pull a 70/30 on 2013 Chief, and that has to be - without a doubt - the biggest fall from grace we've ever had. Not even Magus has fallen that hard.


If you believe Shadow in 2003 was legitimate he wouldn't be far from that.
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#216 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/8/2013 12:36:33 PM | message detail
Crimson Dragoon posted...
Master Chief is a very much 'in the moment' character.

When you're playing Halo you're all 'aw yeah MC pew pew aliens needleeeeeeeeer' and then you're done.

And then you step back.

And once you step back, no one remembers Chief fondly for some reason. Except Lopen.


This is scarily accurate. I was one with the Chief back when I played Halo, but those feelings disappeared like... the moment I stopped playing Halo.
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#217 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/8/2013 12:36:48 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Come awn =P

Oh and also, keeping this in mind:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1731

2013 1v1 match: Master Chief vs. Crash Bandicoot

I'm thinking the stats topic favors Crash today, right?


I'd pick Crash.

Either way, the 2010 stats have Crash breaking 40% on Chief. Heck, Chief would probably lose to Wheatley and a crapload of hyped newcomers this year like Gilgamesh and Barret.
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#218 | paulg235 | Posted 8/8/2013 12:36:53 PM | message detail
No doubt Crash at least breaks 40% on the Chief, right? Unles you want to argue some wierd form of SFF between the two of them exist.
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#219 | Karma Hunter (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/8/2013 12:37:23 PM | message detail
Crash *probably* doesn't win. I know Chief isn't linear, but he's still gonna end at a relatively high percentage on Yunie, and things like Crash and Spyro and other fallen icons like that have basically succeeded on name recognition against niche competition. Crash would have to be running almost entirely on anti-votes. Is MC getting anti-voted by 50%+ of GameFAQs?
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#220 | Greyfeld | Posted 8/8/2013 12:37:47 PM | message detail
The Mana Sword posted...
Yeah, from purely anecdotal evidence I've seen around the Internet, a lot of people do seem to actually like Lightning but are hesitant to admit it because it's kind of taboo to like anything from FFXIII or something.


I like Lightning as a concept, but as a character, she's very two-dimensional and boring.
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#221 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/8/2013 12:38:46 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Ya know this is even funnier when you go back and look at just how beastly Chief was back in 2007. Doubling Yuna. More than tripling Liquid Snake. Brushing Dante aside with ease. I think Game Fuel Chief would pull a 70/30 on 2013 Chief, and that has to be - without a doubt - the biggest fall from grace we've ever had. Not even Magus has fallen that hard.


It's probably not fair but... 2007 Finals L-Block.


Link nearly put 71% on Snake and Cloud nearly doubled him that year
hahahaha 4-ways with L-Block
#222 | Karma Hunter (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/8/2013 12:38:59 PM | message detail
oh but personally I'm taking Crash

I wasn't kidding about the Pyramid Head thing f*** you chiefffffffff
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#223 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/8/2013 12:39:16 PM | message detail
But Chief demonstrated his 2007 way more than old school Magus & Shadow or finals L-Block did. Chief went out there for like five matches and obliterated fodder, embarrassed respectable midcarders and near-elites, and came close to putting a scare in Solid freakin' Snake. There are big doubts as to whether Magus and Shadow's final rankings in 2003 were legit; there's no doubt about Chief in 2007. He proved without question that he was a goddamn monster, and now he's proving without question that he's been reduced to this.
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#224 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/8/2013 12:43:49 PM | message detail
XFD Chief is dropping.
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#225 | --Smurf-- | Posted 8/8/2013 12:44:06 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Crash *probably* doesn't win. I know Chief isn't linear, but he's still gonna end at a relatively high percentage on Yunie, and things like Crash and Spyro and other fallen icons like that have basically succeeded on name recognition against niche competition. Crash would have to be running almost entirely on anti-votes. Is MC getting anti-voted by 50%+ of GameFAQs?


50% is a bit ridiculous but I wouldn't discount a sizeable anti-vote number and its not like it'd need to be anything huge to sway it for Crash. His percentage against Yuna here is actually going to flatter him with his anti-votes getting split between two. It'd be much worse 1v1 against anyone, this is guy who was one of the notable benefactors of a multi-vote format after all, he'll be total ass if he ever appears in a 1v1 again.
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#226 | Karma Hunter (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/8/2013 12:45:00 PM | message detail
Yeah, the thing is, even with all the help Chief was getting from fanbase splits in 2007, the ironic thing is he didn't need 'em. Ganondorf, Luigi, Dante, he woulda trounced 'em all even without the constant multiway backstabbing.
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#227 | Crimson Dragoon | Posted 8/8/2013 12:47:01 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
This is scarily accurate. I was one with the Chief back when I played Halo, but those feelings disappeared like... the moment I stopped playing Halo.


I know right? There's not many other games that are like this with me, but Halo and the Chief do it to me every time. Without fail.
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#228 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/8/2013 12:53:27 PM | message detail
Interesting statistic: Out of all the characters this contest to lose in the first round so far, Master Chief has been in the most contest matches out of any of them, having been in a whopping 19 contest matches before. Second place goes to Scorpion with 12 matches under his belt, while third is a tie between Ryu Hayabusa, Pac-Man, and Fox.

...I still can't believe Fox is already gone. Stupid Pokemon trainers.
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#229 | raginbull911 | Posted 8/8/2013 12:56:52 PM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Interesting statistic: Out of all the characters this contest to lose in the first round so far, Master Chief has been in the most contest matches out of any of them, having been in a whopping 19 contest matches before. Second place goes to Scorpion with 12 matches under his belt, while third is a tie between Ryu Hayabusa, Pac-Man, and Fox.

...I still can't believe Fox is already gone. Stupid Pokemon trainers.


Stupid 3ways. I have a hard time believing Fox wouldn't have gotten the 76% of Wolf's vote he needed to win 1v1.
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#230 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/8/2013 12:58:11 PM | message detail
Dang, and Chief didn't even get started until 2003 unlike Scorpion and the rest who began in 02.
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#231 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/8/2013 1:07:41 PM | message detail
ExThaNemesis posted...
Sub-Zero > MC was just a fantastic pick though. I think Leon is the one that got me to even think about that match and I was so happy I picked it right.


Aw yeah

I actually have a pretty good track record at predicting Master Chief despite his inconsistency. I even had him in the semis in 2007!

also look at these 3-D FF characters sucking it up out here
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#232 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/8/2013 1:09:23 PM | message detail
To be fair Scorpion missed 2005, 2006 and 2010, Fox wasn't in 2004, 2005 and 2006 and Hayabusa started in 2004
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#233 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/8/2013 1:10:01 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=1756&num=2
What chances that Chief is going to pull something like this again here?
#234 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/8/2013 1:12:08 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2106&num=2
And he started weak here,too
Of course those are 24 hours matches so this kind of comeback is not possible here but we can hope
#235 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/8/2013 1:13:37 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Looking ahead here, unless Tidus or the Creeper decide to challenge our conventions, we've gotta some pretty secure winners until the Pit/Cecil match, which gives us the weekend to breathe a bit.


Hey remember the last time you said "Oh man there are no interesting matches for the next week?"
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#236 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/8/2013 1:14:18 PM | message detail
Well to be fair Hayabusa started in '04...him making it to Round 3 last time really helps him out there. Also I just realized that Hayabusa is tied with Scorpion for 2nd, not tied with Pac-Man and Fox for 3rd!

Thanks to this contest, Pac-Man has now lost in Round 1 in over half the contests he has been in. Still, the fact that he has been in 7 and has been to Round 3 once (lol 2002) helps him quite a lot there.

Fox hadn't had a Round 1 loss since 2002 until now.

Win-Loss Records for all five of them:

Master Chief: 11-8
Scorpion: 6-6
Ryu Hayabusa: 5-7
Pac-Man: 4-7
Fox: 5-6
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#237 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/8/2013 1:17:10 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
To be fair Scorpion missed 2005, 2006 and 2010, Fox wasn't in 2004, 2005 and 2006 and Hayabusa started in 2004


Like I mentioned, Scorpion and Fox both doing well in the post-2006 contests they've been in until now helped out. Pac-Man just always wants to be there because he's freaking Pac-Man.

IIRC I think next is KOS-MOS, then Cats and Vercetti tied for next after that.
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#238 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/8/2013 1:19:10 PM | message detail
Greyfeld posted...
Despite both being female characters from Final Fantasy games, I don't think there's going to be a whole lot of SFF going on. The characters are very, very different, both in the way they're designed and the way they're written. In addition, there's not a whole lot of overlap between the FF7 and FFX fanbases. Almost any times I've seen a people discuss their favorite FF games, almost nobody marked FF7 and FFX on the same list.


are you serious

Also Yuna and Tifa are my two favorite FF females so there will be some fanbase splitting!
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#239 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/8/2013 1:23:03 PM | message detail
So the number of contest matches each 1st round loser has been in as a whole (only counting the best so far):

Master Chief: 19
Ryu Hayabusa: 12
Scorpion: 12
Pac-Man: 12
Fox: 12
KOS-MOS: 11
Cats: 10
Vercetti: 9
Ocelot: 9
Tails: 8
Captain Falcon: 7
Laharl: 7
Wesker: 7

Past that I think Midna and Balthier are next, but that's probably the point where I should stop.
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#240 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/8/2013 1:23:13 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Come awn =P

Oh and also, keeping this in mind:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1731

2013 1v1 match: Master Chief vs. Crash Bandicoot

I'm thinking the stats topic favors Crash today, right?


...Nah, I'd still take Chief. Hayabusa did 60/40 Crash in 2010. This is probably a weaker Chief than 2010 even, but eh, I'd still take him.
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#241 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/8/2013 1:23:47 PM | message detail
Master Chief in the day is always crazy, that was a 0.14% increase
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#242 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/8/2013 1:26:39 PM | message detail
Upcoming characters likely/guaranteed to end up on the list:

Duke Nukem: 10
Tidus: 14
DK: 13
Riku: 10
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#243 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/8/2013 1:26:48 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Master Chief in the day is always crazy, that was a 0.14% increase


And only a 15 vote cut!

Our poor vote totals.
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#244 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/8/2013 1:27:30 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Master Chief in the day is always crazy, that was a 0.14% increase


Yeah it's actually kinda fun to watch Chief rise like this.

Hello ASV King. To bad you suck so much otherwise.
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#245 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/8/2013 1:30:20 PM | message detail
And only a 15 vote cut!

Our poor vote totals.


More due to Yuna being so far ahead, it is hard to cut when you have only 45% of the vote against her.
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#246 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/8/2013 1:33:47 PM | message detail
He actually came back from more than this!
I wish I knew how to compare between old matches and this years matches because obviously a 1200 vote lead is considered huge in this vote totals...
Frog peaked at 2413 against him..but of course the vote totals were a lot higher so it doesn't say too much
#247 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/8/2013 1:36:25 PM | message detail
Trend chart from the night match:

Time | Dragon | Nook | Pyramid | Votes
0:05 | 44.28% | 36.53% | 19.19% | 813
1:00 | 40.54% | 34.47% | 24.99% | 4914
2:00 | 41.47% | 31.89% | 26.64% | 2879
3:00 | 42.84% | 29.33% | 27.83% | 2059
4:00 | 41.29% | 27.00% | 31.71% | 1700
5:00 | 44.08% | 26.84% | 29.08% | 1386
6:00 | 42.77% | 27.63% | 29.60% | 1321
7:00 | 44.68% | 27.29% | 28.04% | 1466
8:00 | 44.64% | 28.98% | 26.38% | 1698
9:00 | 43.89% | 28.72% | 27.38% | 1866
10:00 | 42.65% | 27.40% | 29.95% | 1960
11:00 | 40.41% | 28.51% | 31.08% | 1940
12:00 | 43.19% | 29.10% | 27.71% | 1945

In typical Nintendo fashion, Nook starts off strong, dies overnight, and recovers a little with the morning vote. Pyramid Head and Nook split hours won 6-6, but it doesn't matter when Nook won the two most important ones. Dragonborn gets off to a rough start but gets better as the match progresses.

X-Stats:

Dragonborn – 50.00%
Tom Nook – 41.34%
Pyramid Head – 39.69%

Dragonborn's prediction percentage was 64.00%
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#248 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/8/2013 1:36:51 PM | message detail
Also, you guys who thought Dragonborn could be Shepard level were probably right! This is probably around where Shepard was after one game, too!
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#249 | The Mana Sword | Posted 8/8/2013 1:40:02 PM | message detail
just you wait until Skyrim 2
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#250 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/8/2013 1:42:10 PM | message detail
Claire currently has 37.72% against Yuna, against Rikku in 2006 she was expected to get 39.98%, surprised she stayed so constant (or everything fell into place so nicely)

Speaking of which Kairi should have had another contest, maybe not until after KH3.
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