Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1099

#51 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/8/2013 9:25:20 AM | message detail
I thought Chief might have a chance, but I forgot what website I was on for a second
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F*** BT
#52 | pirate109 | Posted 8/8/2013 9:26:22 AM | message detail
I thought it was a complete tossup. I ended up taking Yuna in my expert thankfully but I took Chief to go over 38% in my spread bet. Whoops
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#53 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/8/2013 9:26:27 AM | message detail
alexjones555 posted...
surprised but glad that Yuna is winning this, she has far more depth as a character than master chief.


Not true, if you bothered to play any of the games, or any of the non-game Halo stuff (novels, movies), Chief is a very deep character. Certainly more deep than "I have to kill myself to save people HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA" and later "I'm a pop princess now, but I can't live without my Teedus HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA"

This is just a joke of a match. It seems as though all of the people with any taste or reason have left the site, and the few people still voting are the hentai anime fanboys that see a pretty cartoon female and feel some White Knight complex to vote for (and subsequently masturbate to) said character.
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#54 | CrushDavis | Posted 8/8/2013 9:27:24 AM | message detail
Just saw todays match for the first time... geez Chief can you get any worse? This is probably the worst Chief we've ever seen
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#55 | vcharon | Posted 8/8/2013 9:27:51 AM | message detail
Someone mad.
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#56 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/8/2013 9:27:58 AM | message detail
dat BT salt, right on schedule
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F*** BT
#57 | nintendogirl1 (Moderator) | Posted 8/8/2013 9:28:12 AM | message detail
Also, this match is more about luck than predictive skill right?
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*shrug*
#58 | abdou | Posted 8/8/2013 9:28:14 AM | message detail
MC doing 6% better in US

if this was a night match he would be getting destroyed even more
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#59 | Karma Hunter (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/8/2013 9:28:15 AM | message detail
C'mon Claire stay in striking range so you can start ripping MC once we get out of the Halo Power Hour
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#60 | ZFS | Posted 8/8/2013 9:28:15 AM | message detail
Well then
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#61 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/8/2013 9:28:33 AM | message detail
LOL BT
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#62 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/8/2013 9:29:11 AM | message detail
And Claire being last is a shame too, since she definitely has way more depth and personality than Yuna.

I'll never understand people who vote for Final Fantasy X characters (with the exception of Auron)
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Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite?
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#63 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/8/2013 9:29:27 AM | message detail
ZFS posted...
Chief never made much sense here. Just didn't seem like a good pick with the Xbox problems and the smaller votes.


Well in people's defense, Chief had some startlingly good advantages here. He's possibly the biggest day character we have. Honestly, in a 24-hour match, I have trouble finding an opponent who actually rises in the day against Master Chief (uhhh Marcus Phoenix?). Chief, the ultimate day vote character, is up against two similar looking, night vote-oriented female characters with nearly identical picture poses and proportions.

The fact that he's not just losing - but getting his ass kicked by these combined powers of booty - is just amazing. The only sad thing here is that Yuna is a legit entry with a pretty good contest history; she didn't need this. If you swapped her out for some invisible third place fodder, CLAIRE would be doing this to Chief. And we would be in an uproar.
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#64 | The Mana Sword | Posted 8/8/2013 9:29:34 AM | message detail
chief would be winning if he had a gun is his pic

or maybe an ass pic
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#65 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/8/2013 9:29:37 AM | message detail
BT salt, a classic
#66 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/8/2013 9:30:27 AM | message detail
Delicious, delicious salt.
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#67 | JustForFun1988 | Posted 8/8/2013 9:30:35 AM | message detail
BT salt, to 500!!!

Oh wait.
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#68 | Greyfeld | Posted 8/8/2013 9:30:49 AM | message detail
nintendogirl1 posted...
Also, this match is more about luck than predictive skill right?


No, not really. Like I said, their 2010 performances pretty much nailed this match.
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#69 | Karma Hunter (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/8/2013 9:30:55 AM | message detail
One day Claire will win a contest match. One day.

I am still so SAD that you guys voted Kairi over her. :(
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#70 | nintendogirl1 (Moderator) | Posted 8/8/2013 9:31:20 AM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
ZFS posted...
Chief never made much sense here. Just didn't seem like a good pick with the Xbox problems and the smaller votes.


Well in people's defense, Chief had some startlingly good advantages here. He's possibly the biggest day character we have. Honestly, in a 24-hour match, I have trouble finding an opponent who actually rises in the day against Master Chief (uhhh Marcus Phoenix?). Chief, the ultimate day vote character, is up against two similar looking, night vote-oriented female characters with nearly identical picture poses and proportions.


Sora pre-KH2? I think he started to lose some of his kiddy image and pick up night votes after that.
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*shrug*
#71 | Karma Hunter (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/8/2013 9:32:08 AM | message detail
Greyfeld posted...
nintendogirl1 posted...
Also, this match is more about luck than predictive skill right?


No, not really. Like I said, their 2010 performances pretty much nailed this match.


I won't accept this, though. Ryu H's 2010 x-stat ranking is not valid. MC is flat-out weaker now.

(so is Ryu H, but that's another story)
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#72 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/8/2013 9:32:52 AM | message detail
I'll never receive enough punishment for the way I voted in 2006.

To Claire's credit, she might be the most entertaining winless character ever. All three of her losses have been great times.
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#73 | ZFS | Posted 8/8/2013 9:32:54 AM | message detail
Yeah, I guess the day vote could have given someone pause. Still, I would think the lack of a big casual vote like we used to get would be a bigger force for people. Think Yuna was the favorite, though, so most seemed to be in the right corner here.
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#74 | swordz9 | Posted 8/8/2013 9:36:25 AM | message detail
It still bums me that Yuna is going to be crushed by Tifa next round when Yuna is so many tiers above her in terms of character.
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#75 | 2Dover3D | Posted 8/8/2013 9:37:55 AM | message detail
I dunno, I just had a hard time seeing the site latch onto anything Microsoft after the mess with Xbox One... and Chief of all things can be the lightning rod for all that hatred since hes the face of the Xbox.
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#76 | Karma Hunter (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/8/2013 9:38:00 AM | message detail
Hey, if FF7 has fallen off a cliff while FFX has stayed steady, that sounds like a crazy upset pick in the making to me!

Round 2 Face Shots Tifa no chance
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#77 | raginbull911 | Posted 8/8/2013 9:38:05 AM | message detail
OMG even though this is going to further ruin my already dead bracket (after such a good start, I was even on the leaderboard at one point) I find this result to be absolutely hilarious. I mean, I think Yuna sucks as a character, but Chief isn't much better and is the face of Microsoft's gaming platforms, so seeing him crash and burn is just outstanding.

Come on Claire for 2nd place!
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#78 | Denzokuken | Posted 8/8/2013 9:38:30 AM | message detail
Tifa gets to crush two FFX characters this contest assuming Auron doesn't fold to L-Block. Should be good.
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#79 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/8/2013 9:41:34 AM | message detail
Looking ahead here, unless Tidus or the Creeper decide to challenge our conventions, we've gotta some pretty secure winners until the Pit/Cecil match, which gives us the weekend to breathe a bit.
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#80 | swordz9 | Posted 8/8/2013 9:42:11 AM | message detail
That's not good. It's terrible because she's worse than both!
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#81 | ZFS | Posted 8/8/2013 9:42:19 AM | message detail
let's go Pit boost
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#82 | PSU_Jer | Posted 8/8/2013 9:42:42 AM | message detail
2Dover3D posted...
I dunno, I just had a hard time seeing the site latch onto anything Microsoft after the mess with Xbox One... and Chief of all things can be the lightning rod for all that hatred since hes the face of the Xbox.


Yeah, this. Few characters are more closely associated with a brand than Chief is with Microsoft, and it was hard to see him winning when there was so much negativity toward MS and Xbox One...
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#83 | Karma Hunter (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/8/2013 9:42:50 AM | message detail
I think at this point people are only really giving Pit a chance because he's Nintendo. I keep trying to think of ways for him to pull that match off and they're not coalescing.
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#84 | ZFS | Posted 8/8/2013 9:44:12 AM | message detail
I chose Pit in my bracket, at the time, because of Kid Icarus Uprising and not expecting old Square to be a big deal, like it always was. Cecil probably wins, but I think Pit makes a good match of it.
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#85 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/8/2013 9:44:27 AM | message detail
Knux just looked like he would struggle against Celes.

I don't think anything can save Pit with how Old Square has looked so far. Even a boost to Ike's level, which is what basis I chose him on, wouldn't help him.
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#86 | raginbull911 | Posted 8/8/2013 9:44:32 AM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Looking ahead here, unless Tidus or the Creeper decide to challenge our conventions, we've gotta some pretty secure winners until the Pit/Cecil match, which gives us the weekend to breathe a bit.


Always bet on Duke.
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#87 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/8/2013 9:44:36 AM | message detail
Same. If it weren't a day match, I would have snuffed out that last little candle of hope. Cecil is definitely the favorite and my Oracle/Expert picks will reflect that.
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#88 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 8/8/2013 9:44:40 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
I think at this point people are only really giving Pit a chance because he's Nintendo. I keep trying to think of ways for him to pull that match off and they're not coalescing.


Hey, if Placenta can exceed expectations against L-block, there's always the chance that Pit... yeah I got nothing.
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#89 | swordz9 | Posted 8/8/2013 9:45:21 AM | message detail
Pit might pull off a win. Palutena did pretty decently all things considered and Kid Icarus Uprising might have brought in a decent amount of non-original KI/Brawl players.
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#90 | Greyfeld | Posted 8/8/2013 9:46:33 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Greyfeld posted...
nintendogirl1 posted...
Also, this match is more about luck than predictive skill right?


No, not really. Like I said, their 2010 performances pretty much nailed this match.


I won't accept this, though. Ryu H's 2010 x-stat ranking is not valid. MC is flat-out weaker now.

(so is Ryu H, but that's another story)


Even if Ryu's x-stat ranking isn't valid (not sure why, you'll have to explain that to me), he and Zack both went up against Mega Man, and Zack pulled in an extra 10% in his match.
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#91 | Karma Hunter (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/8/2013 9:46:45 AM | message detail
I'm not saying Pit winning is impossible, but... Palutena isn't a convincing argument, at least to me. There's a reliable contingent of anti-L Block votes now and they weren't going to go to Teemo.
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#92 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/8/2013 9:47:26 AM | message detail
Ugh, Yuna doing so well means that she very well could split with Tifa next round. Which would be GREAT news for me if Dragonborn had proven to be worth a damn.
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#93 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/8/2013 9:47:39 AM | message detail
Yeah, but round one matches are the only ones we can really get accurate prediction stats on. Everything else you have a certain segment whose "pick to win the match" isn't even in the match. In the case of a perceived "3-point match", that can really throw things off. Can't come up with an official contest example offhand, but when this year's bracket was announced, someone, I forget who, made a hypothetical 256-character 1v1 bracket with 13 additional characters chosen primarily from high-profile snubs like Jecht and Liquid Snake, then played out this "what could have been" bracket in what amounted to a glorified fanfic. One of the cruelest first-round matches was (4)Bowser vs (13)Vincent Valentine (do the math; the nine 23-seeds would be characters 199-207, while the sixteen 13-seeds in a 16x16 bracket would be 193-208.) Two near-elites in Round 1. Assume that prediction percentages on this match are near 50-50--or worse, that one of them gets a decided bracket advantage and loses--and you get a lot of not-debatable later-round matches with poor prediction percentages. Make no mistake, that first-round match was for the entire division. I'm pretty sure that 4-13 was in one of the seven divisions that took its top seed from the ranks of our 2-seeds rather than the Noble Nine.

That's obviously an extreme case, but you really do have to consider the possibility. Vincent's obviously lost a step, sure, but he's still a strong character who can't seem to pull down a high seed. It's quite possible that one of these contests, he will run into a setup where he's engaged in a 7-point round one match--a 2-15 or 3-14 where only the 1-seed is a legitimate threat afterwards.
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#94 | Karma Hunter (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/8/2013 9:50:47 AM | message detail
Greyfeld posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Greyfeld posted...
nintendogirl1 posted...
Also, this match is more about luck than predictive skill right?


No, not really. Like I said, their 2010 performances pretty much nailed this match.


I won't accept this, though. Ryu H's 2010 x-stat ranking is not valid. MC is flat-out weaker now.

(so is Ryu H, but that's another story)


Even if Ryu's x-stat ranking isn't valid (not sure why, you'll have to explain that to me), he and Zack both went up against Mega Man, and Zack pulled in an extra 10% in his match.


http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb8/cb8-102.jpg

His x-stat rating is absurd. Taken at face value he's expected to score less on Zero in 2010 than he did on Zero, Pit, and King Dedede combined.

He's also weaker now - Ninja Gaiden 3 practically destroyed the series. Straight up, peak Ryu Hayabusa probably wins the Kefka/Zack/Ryu H trio outright due to fanbase splitting.
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#95 | --Smurf-- | Posted 8/8/2013 9:54:57 AM | message detail
ZinsanityCraze posted...
--Smurf-- posted...
As I said in the other thread that seems to be getting abandoned for some reason. *shrug*

->
A strong Yuna performance would be evidence of the "badass decline theory due to an older and less impressionable audience" accounting for the uneven collapse of certain segments of the Final Fantasy crew.

Out of new square I'm expecting (or what will be recognised as when the contest is over) good to on par performances from: Yuna, Tidus, Rikku, Zidane, Vivi, Aeris, Tifa, Balthier

And poor performances from: Cloud, Vincent, Sephiroth, Zack, Squall, Auron

Lightning is a mystery


Badass decline theory? You serious?


I couldn't think of a better name for it but yes. That style of character (crazy swords, wild hair, strong, anti-social, some sort of hidden background) is designed to resonate particularly well with the kind of teenage boys who play rpgs, it's not surprising that as the userbase gets older their tastes drift away from them.
It's a lot more consistent and logical to whats hapening than the idea that square is declining and every anomaly can be explained by Dissidia, including old Square's rise while just continuing to shrug shoulders at Rydia, Yuna and soon Tidus & Rikku.
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#96 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/8/2013 9:56:01 AM | message detail
Badass decline factor?Yeah you heard it right here.
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#97 | Denzokuken | Posted 8/8/2013 9:57:21 AM | message detail
Master Chief gobbling up percentage now, he might make this look respec.... bahahaha no.
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Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over....
#98 | Greyfeld | Posted 8/8/2013 9:57:22 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb8/cb8-102.jpg

His x-stat rating is absurd. Taken at face value he's expected to score less on Zero in 2010 than he did on Zero, Pit, and King Dedede combined.

He's also weaker now - Ninja Gaiden 3 practically destroyed the series. Straight up, peak Ryu Hayabusa probably wins the Kefka/Zack/Ryu H trio outright due to fanbase splitting.


Ok... but that doesn't really nullify my point about him sucking it up against Mega Man.
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#99 | Karma Hunter (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/8/2013 9:57:38 AM | message detail
Square hasn't disappointed so far. Final Fantasy VII has disappointed. The only real exception to this is Seifer, and he's probably been that bad all along. We've just never seen him in a contest before.
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#100 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/8/2013 9:57:48 AM | message detail
Came along all nervous that Yuna was struggling.

Aw yeah.
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