Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1098

#401 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 8/8/2013 2:53:27 AM | message detail
It might be a weak effect, but I would be very surprised if it didn't exist at all. It's kind of the same effect you see with antivotes in reverse: characters like Cloud look stronger in later rounds since antivoters are willing to vote against almost anyone against them. Again this represents a less elastic voter base than for a typical character.
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#402 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 8/8/2013 2:57:24 AM | message detail
Also I definitely buy non-transitivity in voting. Most character rankings are pretty nebulous for similarly liked characters (for a given person), so a lot of the evaluation when voting is likely context driven. There's also probably some straight up randomness, but that should pretty much average out to nothing with large samples.
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#403 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/8/2013 4:54:37 AM | message detail | (edited)
Dragonborn flops, failing to even reach 60% on Tom Nook, never mind a doubling. Nook, for his part, has to rely on his strong Power Hour to hold off Pyramid Head, who ran him close through the night.

Round 1, Match 62

(4) Master Chief
(15) Yuna
(24) Claire Redfield

Time for one of the more hyped debatable round one matches. After Master Chief blew his second round match against Ryu Hayabusa in 2010, and Microsoft angered the internet crowd at E3 with their anti-used games policy, many have written him off. But while I'll end up picking against him here, I think it's fair to note that he has a lot of things going in his favour. He stands out in the picture, he stands out as the only male next to two females, the match is during the day, where Halo is dangerous and FFX feeble, it's a multi-way poll so anti-voting will be less deadly, and Yuna isn't really that strong.

Interestingly, the characters who knocked Yuna and Chief out in 2010 have already shared a match, where Hayabusa lost 53/47 to Zack, but neither of them looked very good. That relationship between Zack and Hayabusa would leave Yuna and Chief mighty close, but I think Zack would do better if Kefka wasn't sharing space. The more straightforward comparison from 2010, through Mega Man, leaves Yuna in the mid-50s on Chief, your milage varying on how much SFF there may have been in Zack/Yuna and MM/Hayabusa.

So this should be a close one, however you look at it, and Chief usually provides one of the interesting stories of each character battle, so maybe he'll keep up and make this interesting. As an FFX fanboy though, it'd be great to see Yuna get some revenge for those terrible 2007 matches where he bashed her around with his elite-tier strength!

Claire Redfield's contest history consists of respectable loses to PS2 Square characters, and she'll be adding another page to it here. Expect her to hold up reasonably, but I think her opposition is too strong for her to hang with.

This match also serves as something of a prelude to the bigger "FF vs. Western Gaming" showdown, Aerith vs. Shepard.

Bracket: Yuna
Expert: Yuna > Chief > Claire
Oracle: Yuna - 39.5%; Master Chief - 36.5%; Claire Redfield - 24%
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#404 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/8/2013 4:16:00 AM | message detail
I just woke up.I have to say.
1)This site SUCKS!The protagonist of the best game of the generation against a racoon I think and the bad guy from 1 SH game and he has 42%.
2)This site SUCKS!Did I mentioned that?Why this site does't want modern games but games from 30 years ago do well?People time to grow up
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#405 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/8/2013 4:18:55 AM | message detail
I'm pretty sure Pyramid Head and Tom Nook's age are closer to today than they are from 30 years ago.
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#406 | pjbasis | Posted 8/8/2013 4:31:36 AM | message detail
Let's go Red Pyramid Thing!
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#407 | Regaro_Ukiera | Posted 8/8/2013 4:40:11 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
1)This site SUCKS!The protagonist of the best game of the generation against a racoon I think and the bad guy from 1 SH game and he has 42%.


literally a "not winning by enough" post

disgusting
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#408 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/8/2013 4:54:44 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
I just woke up.I have to say.
1)This site SUCKS!The protagonist of the best game of the generation against a racoon I think and the bad guy from 1 SH game and he has 42%.


Pyramid Head gets a lot of discussion on the Internet so I'd imagine most hardcore gamers know who he is. Nooky provides a hilarious contrast from the other two and is probably the most recognizable character in the poll...I don't know.
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#409 | pjbasis | Posted 8/8/2013 4:57:12 AM | message detail
I'd be pretty pissed if Squall were in DB's position
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#410 | ZinsanityCraze | Posted 8/8/2013 5:04:28 AM | message detail
With how new Square has looked so far, wouldn't be surprised if Squall failed to break 60% against two turbofodders.
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#411 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/8/2013 5:08:15 AM | message detail
I am not complaining that he isn't winning enought.I am complaining that he is from the best game of this generation barely beats an enemy from a SH game and a raccoon that happens to be from a Nintendo game so of course he get's a ton of votes.Anyways he wins so I guess that is enough.
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#412 | jacko_vdz | Posted 8/8/2013 5:26:11 AM | message detail
If it makes you feel better, he's probably the strongest character of 2011! I don't see Groose/N doing better here!
#413 | Rad_Dudesman | Posted 8/8/2013 5:28:10 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
I just woke up.I have to say.
1)This site SUCKS!The protagonist of the best game of the generation against a racoon I think and the bad guy from 1 SH game and he has 42%.
2)This site SUCKS!Did I mentioned that?Why this site does't want modern games but games from 30 years ago do well?People time to grow up


le master ruseman
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#414 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/8/2013 5:29:14 AM | message detail
ZinsanityCraze posted...
With how new Square has looked so far, wouldn't be surprised if Squall failed to break 60% against two turbofodders.


I was going to say that Rayman's probably considerably stronger now due to Origins + Legends hype, but then again games released after 2009/2010 haven't shown much ability to lend strength so far.

Maybe GameFAQs was too busy playing Mass Effect 2 and Skyrim?
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#415 | Regaro_Ukiera | Posted 8/8/2013 5:30:52 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
I am not complaining that he isn't winning enought.I am complaining that he is from the best game of this generation barely beats an enemy from a SH game and a raccoon that happens to be from a Nintendo game so of course he get's a ton of votes.Anyways he wins so I guess that is enough.


that's the definition of complaining about not winning by enough.

do you want to be lumped in with deus ex fans? I can arrange that if you really want it
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#416 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/8/2013 5:32:51 AM | message detail
So the only decent Western characters then are ME characters,AC characters and maybe Nathan Drake then?
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#417 | Regaro_Ukiera | Posted 8/8/2013 5:34:59 AM | message detail
L-Block is Russian does that not qualify as western?
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#418 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/8/2013 5:36:11 AM | message detail
Most of Russia is in Asia though so it counts as East I guess?
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#419 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/8/2013 5:51:37 AM | message detail
Regaro_Ukiera posted...
L-Block is Russian does that not qualify as western?


L-Block counts, but I think we were mostly referring to current-gen characters.

Never mind that Tetris is often associated with Nintendo.
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#420 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/8/2013 5:53:06 AM | message detail | (edited)
Safer_777 posted...
Most of Russia is in Asia though so it counts as East I guess?


Russia is a European country because its capital and 80% of its population are in Europe. The Asian portion of Russia is Siberia, which is sparsely populated because of the climate and landscape being similar to the Mongolian Steppe.
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#421 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/8/2013 6:24:31 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
So the only decent Western characters then are ME characters,AC characters and maybe Nathan Drake then?


Sub-Zero and Scorpz are probably the 2 strongest. Gordon Freeman and GlaDOS I would also take over any of the characters you listed except Ezio and Shepard.
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#422 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/8/2013 6:26:05 AM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Safer_777 posted...
So the only decent Western characters then are ME characters,AC characters and maybe Nathan Drake then?


Sub-Zero and Scorpz are probably the 2 strongest. Gordon Freeman and GlaDOS I would also take over any of the characters you listed except Ezio and Shepard.


Also lump Master Chief with characters I would take over ME and AC secondary characters.
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#423 | AshsBallistics | Posted 8/8/2013 6:29:21 AM | message detail
Lara didn't look too bad either. Well, considering the opposition.
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#424 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/8/2013 6:39:27 AM | message detail
Isn't Lara a Square character now?
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Points: 48/60 Today's Picks: Dragonborn and M Chief
#425 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/8/2013 6:41:57 AM | message detail
Match LXII: (4) Master Chief vs. (15) Yuna vs. (24) Claire Redfield

Previous Contest

Master Chief – 2010
60.22% against Spy
47.44% against Ryu Hayabusa

Yuna – 2010
41.39% against Zack Fair

Claire Redfield – 2006
47.92% against Kairi

Analysis

I hate predicting Master Chief matches. You would think he would have decent strength, but he goes and loses to a character he should not be losing to yet I always go for him. Master Chief may have it even tougher for this contest. The XboxOne reveal did not go very well and I would not be surprised if Microsoft fans took it out on Master Chief. Microsoft has backpedaled on a few things, but the damage has been done. Lucky for Chief anti-votes are split in this format.

Yuna is not the strongest character, but she does have strength and is capable of winning this match. She did not look too good against Zack last contest and would have to hope Master Chief is hated enough to take the upset. Of course Zack could have slightly SFF her which would put her in a better position for the upset. Auron may have underperformed to some people’s expectation, but I feel Ocelot was just underestimated and Auron’s performance against Roxas showed him to be around his expected strength.

Funny that Claire was able to make the contest, but her brother Chris failed. She has not appeared in a true main Resident Evil game since the second game. She was already losing to Kairi in 2006 so it is not hard to imagine her being even weaker today. Her minor appearances may keep her from falling off the map, but I doubt they have done anything major for her.

I feel Master Chief can still win this in a close match. Yuna is not as strong as the characters around Master Chief, but anti-votes are a thing and they could be as strong as ever. I know people joke around about Claire having a chance against Master Chief, but I feel she is going to get crushed rather badly.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Master Chief > Yuna and Claire Redfield

charmander6000’s Prediction: Master Chief – 41.66%, Yuna – 38.22%, Claire Redfield – 20.12%
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#426 | Crimson Dragoon | Posted 8/8/2013 6:44:31 AM | message detail
Poor Claire.

Capcom has no idea what to do with her =(
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#427 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/8/2013 6:44:51 AM | message detail
I was kind of making light of it during the actual match but even using the worst estimates of Charizard and Kratos strength, Ezio's damn strong if Tails is anything remotely constant from 2010. That could be potentially problematic for Auron next round - not so much in that he might lose to him (even with an Auron drop, Auron was *way* too far ahead) but that the Not-L Block vote could be split so much between him and Ezio that the Block slips through.
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#428 | AshsBallistics | Posted 8/8/2013 6:47:54 AM | message detail
Crimson Dragoon posted...
Poor Claire.

Capcom has no idea what to do with her =(


They do, it's just that their interpretation of her is "she's a civilian, why would she be with the BSAA in a warzone?".
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#429 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/8/2013 6:53:05 AM | message detail
Capcom could singlehandedly save Resident Evil (again) if they got back to basics and made the next flagship RE starring Jill and Claire

and whenever they're not onscreen, people should be asking, "where's Jill and Claire?"

all my money
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#430 | Crimson Dragoon | Posted 8/8/2013 6:54:32 AM | message detail
They literally turned Sherry Birkin into a federal agent. Granted there are some other factors at work there, but the point is they could rope her back in if they really wanted to.

They just don't.
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#431 | Crimson Dragoon | Posted 8/8/2013 6:55:05 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Capcom could singlehandedly save Resident Evil (again) if they got back to basics and made the next flagship RE starring Jill and Claire


pre-ordered and paid off let's do this
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#432 | Crimson Dragoon | Posted 8/8/2013 6:59:36 AM | message detail | (edited)
Honestly if they had the balls to off Chris (for reals, not RE5 Jill style), Claire could have an entire REVENGEANCE game that writes itself.

And Jill could join up too because OLD PARTNERS.

Hire me Capcom. Hire me now.
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#433 | The Mana Sword | Posted 8/8/2013 6:58:45 AM | message detail
Crimson Dragoon posted...
Honestly if they had the balls to off Chris (for reals, not RE5 Jill style), Claire could have an entire REVENGEANCE game that writes itself.

And Jill could join up to because OLD PARTNERS.

Hire me Capcom. Hire me now.


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#434 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/8/2013 6:59:16 AM | message detail
Crimson Dragoon posted...
Poor Claire.

Capcom has no idea what to do


There, got rid of redundant words.
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#435 | Crimson Dragoon | Posted 8/8/2013 7:07:34 AM | message detail
If they put on disc DLC into my Jill/Claire revengeance game I will cut off my own head.

Separate story based DLC with its own budget and development cycle is A-Ok though.
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#436 | wakeuptogashi | Posted 8/8/2013 7:09:27 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Capcom could singlehandedly save Resident Evil (again) if they got back to basics and made the next flagship RE starring Jill and Claire

and whenever they're not onscreen, people should be asking, "where's Jill and Claire?"

all my money


Only if they use the REmake Jill design. Literally the most attractive VG character ever created, and they turned her into a milf.
#437 | The Mana Sword | Posted 8/8/2013 7:10:02 AM | message detail
Crimson Dragoon posted...
If they put on disc DLC into my Jill/Claire revengeance game I will cut off my own head.

Separate story based DLC with its own budget and development cycle is A-Ok though.


"Don't call us, we'll call you."
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#438 | Crimson Dragoon | Posted 8/8/2013 7:13:29 AM | message detail
DAMMIT

Capcom, I can save you. Just give me a chance!
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#439 | Crimson Dragoon | Posted 8/8/2013 7:14:56 AM | message detail
Also REMake Jill is up there in aesthetically pleasing designs. Aya Brea too.

Survival Horror for some reason has that down.
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#440 | Geemer02 | Posted 8/8/2013 7:34:05 AM | message detail
Woah, just woke up, way to be Pyramid Head.
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#441 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/8/2013 7:36:27 AM | message detail
Pyramid Head would probably be in second if it weren't for Nook's mind-boggling picture advantage. He's still slicing him up for the most part, too - he'd probably make this *real* close if the match ran 24 hours.
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#442 | Crimson Dragoon | Posted 8/8/2013 7:37:28 AM | message detail
heh

pyramid head slicing him up

heh
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#443 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/8/2013 7:51:22 AM | message detail
Along those lines, that talk of someone rising nearly 10% from the freeze was right on.

Just the wrong character~
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#444 | Crimson Dragoon | Posted 8/8/2013 8:29:51 AM | message detail
Pyramid Head is actually impressing me here. I didn't think he'd even be in the ballpark.
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#445 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/8/2013 8:32:40 AM | message detail
He's already beaten pre-RE5 Chris Redfield comfortably too. Silent Hill wound up with a relatively high x-stat ranking in the Series Contest back in the day... it doesn't say too much about what Pyramid Head could do now, but you can probably qualify him as pretty decent fodder instead of bad fodder.
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#446 | pjbasis | Posted 8/8/2013 8:41:49 AM | message detail
Claire was storming umbrella HQ and fighting helicopters on her own before BSAA or anyone ever existed.

She can handle herself.
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#447 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/8/2013 8:43:54 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Safer_777 posted...
Most of Russia is in Asia though so it counts as East I guess?


Russia is a European country because its capital and 80% of its population are in Europe. The Asian portion of Russia is Siberia, which is sparsely populated because of the climate and landscape being similar to the Mongolian Steppe.


See, LMS does have a clue sometimes! It's just with things that don't apply to contests!

_SecretSquirrel posted...
Crimson Dragoon posted...
Poor Claire.

Capcom has no idea what to do


There, got rid of redundant words.


Yes. So hard.
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#448 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/8/2013 8:47:11 AM | message detail
All this praise for Claire puts a tear in my eye. Utilize one of your biggest assets, Capcom.
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#449 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/8/2013 8:48:33 AM | message detail
Claire was the protagonist in RE:Code Veronica which is a main game in the series.So there is that.
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#450 | lightsout06 | Posted 8/8/2013 8:48:57 AM | message detail
What is the board consensus for the next match? Chief<Yuna
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