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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1098
- Team Aqua Elite (37)
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I
just don't think Chief will bear too large of a hit from all that.
...Though, I probably would agree with you that if the XBone
announcement had been a hit it'd be a positive factor in Chief's favor
so I guess I'm not very consistent here! I mean, I don't think Chief will be completely unaffected by it but it just strikes me as a pretty minor factor in the match. Now, if Yuna just buries Chief I might reconsider, but he'd have to do really badly for me to think that. I don't know, I think unless we have some extreme result either way it'll be hard to decisively say what role it plays in all this. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
LeonhartFour posted... hey guys there's still no ASV Oh shoot, you're right! Glad I'm sticking with Yuna for the Expert Challenge, but I still have a feeling that Master Chief and Donkey Kong are both going to pull a Kefka on us. At least Yuna being the favorite over Chief is justified though. Where on earth did all that Mario Sunshine > Halo 1/3 hype come from, seeing how Mario Galaxy arguably was the biggest bomb of BGE2? --- Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC |
Well,
people are exaggerating the point I'm making and making it sound like I
think Chief's going to be fodder now. Characters not doing as well when
their companies that they represent are not doing as well is pretty
straightforward. It's happening with Nintendo, but they can still win in
spite of it. People seem to accept that Square in general isn't as
popular as it used to be, and part of it's because they've done a poor
job in the last several years and people just don't like Square as much
as they used to. If Square were still punching out well received games
on a regular basis, I doubt we'd see its characters falling off quite as
hard as they have been in the last several years. It's not a
groundbreaking effect, but it IS an effect. Not sure why people deny that Chief is the face of the Xbox even if he's not "officially" linked with it! He's the only character people associate with it. --- http://i.imgur.com/eqOQs.gif |
(Also Pyramid Head is starting to cut into Nook's lead, but he's probably too far behind to catch up at this point) --- http://gifsoup.com/view/874243/big-boss-o.gif |
Yeah, Tom Nook is dropping like a rock. Have we even had a non-joke/rallied entry that dropped this much after the first hour? Not that it'll be enough for the comeback but yeah --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
Well,
it's not surprising. He's a Nintendo character facing two guys who
ought to be night oriented. He's just getting double teamed here. --- http://i43.tinypic.com/dgwh0.gif http://www.majhost.com/gallery/atukam/OHWD/snownd.gif |
Maybe
I'm just too much of a cynic that I don't think the backlash is going
to stick too badly. If the XBone announcement happened more recently
and/or Microsoft didn't backpedal I'd be a lot more receptive to Chief
taking a big hit over it. If this match took place in the days after the
announcement I think Yuna becomes a total lock. But with how things are now? I'm just not feeling it. It's definitely not a good thing for Chief but this comes in a distant second to me compared to "Chief is almost certainly a lot less relevant here now." I think I even take it being a day match as a bigger factor! --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
I
do think, however, that Chief isn't as immediately associable with the
Xbox brand as he used to be, although that may be due to post-3 Halo
games being overshadowed by other major 360 games come time for GOTY
voting (on most of the Internet, not just here). That's still a far cry from all the hype that Halo 2 and Halo 3 got though. I also get the feeling that Chief being a 4 seed instead of a 2 or 1 is a good indicator, though I'm not sure why. Never mind that Chief would have likely been a 3 seed if it wasn't for all those weakass new characters being rallied like this. Seriously, would Dragonborn actually advance out of most 3 seed threepacks? He's probably struggle with Jak and Mr. Game & Watch. The likes of Shadow and Altair would likely be out of his league completely. And then there's that princess. --- Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC |
Chief's probably less relevant because there's no hype for the Xbone. Personally, I'm not expecting a huge boost for Mega Man from being announced in Smash 4 because there's really not a lot of hype for THAT game either because it's on the Wii U. The hype for that was NOTHING compared to the hype that went down when Snake (or even Sonic) got announced. I'm sure it'll help, but Brawl hype was something that can probably never be replicated. --- http://i.imgur.com/eqOQs.gif |
In
hindsight though, I have a feeling that Nooky here is stronger than
he's ever been. Dragonborn probably advances out of most 3 seed
threepacks this contest, though Zelda is obviously out of his league
while matches with The Boss, Shadow, Altair, Mr. Game & Watch,
Wario, and maybe even Jak would be debatable. --- Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC |
Then00bAvenger posted... Yeah, Tom Nook is dropping like a rock. Have we even had a non-joke/rallied entry that dropped this much after the first hour? Groose dropped almost 6% after the first hour. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
He said non-joke. --- www.dudewheresmyfreedom.com Proud to share the same beliefs as SmartMuffin |
GOD DAMNIT, LEON. --- www.dudewheresmyfreedom.com Proud to share the same beliefs as SmartMuffin |
That SMuffin sig is affecting your reaction time, my friend! --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v516/Sensui22/1248835958206.png |
It drains me...of my...power... --- www.dudewheresmyfreedom.com Proud to share the same beliefs as SmartMuffin |
LeonhartFour posted... Chief's probably less relevant because there's no hype for the Xbone. Speaking of SSB4, I get the funny feeling that that game's pics actually hurt the characters who draw them, out of lack of recognizability. No idea why since in most cases the characters involved shouldn't be hurt by match pic, but who knows. Then again, Link has lost a match thanks to pic factor in the past (and one could attribute Cloud's underperformance against Ridley to pic factor as well), so maybe no character is immune to pic factor. --- Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC |
LeonhartFour posted... He said non-joke. I don't consider Groose to be a joke character. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
Tingle is more of a joke character than Groose is. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
"More of a joke character" doesn't mean Groose is not a joke. --- http://img.imgcake.com/tumblrmb8ky9zpsk1qd3518o8250gifyd.gif http://img.imgcake.com/tumblrmb8ky9zpsk1qd3518o6250gifuv.gif |
Where
did all this Groose support even come from anyway? I heard that he's
one of the better things to come out of Skyward Sword but is that it? Honestly, I think that Groose even getting so close to characters who play much bigger roles in their respective franchises shows how popular the Zelda series is on this site. Or maybe more how unpopular Tekken and Dynasty Warriors are. --- Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC |
pjbasis posted... If Dissidia ever got a console release, forget it. Kefka's so Noble he shows up twice! --- RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed. |
I
consider fading away a bit different from a negative impact. I think
Chief is less relevant because Halo has become less relevant. Obviously it's better for Chief if the Xbone had hype behind it but I don't think the lack of hype for it is precipitating Chief's fade, it just isn't doing anything to stop it. I kind of get the feeling that we're actually mostly in agreement here and just arguing over some details or maybe are using different terms or something. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
Poor Groose --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
It's
mostly a matter of semantics. If Chief is stagnating because he has
nothing to keep him relevant, he's eventually going to regress. You can
only survive so long with nothing to sustain you. Some people can last
longer than others (like Crono), but they all eventually start to slide
the longer they're away from the spotlight. --- http://i.imgur.com/fe05x.png http://i.imgur.com/stNJf.png |
LinkMarioSamus posted... In hindsight though, I have a feeling that Nooky here is stronger than he's ever been. Dragonborn probably advances out of most 3 seed threepacks this contest, though Zelda is obviously out of his league while matches with The Boss, Shadow, Altair, Mr. Game & Watch, Wario, and maybe even Jak would be debatable. Yes, Nook's stronger. No, Dragonborn wouldn't be able to hold up in a threepack with a character people actually care about. --- RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed. |
xp1337 posted... I consider fading away a bit different from a negative impact. I think Chief is less relevant because Halo has become less relevant. This is pretty much why I think there's a chance that Chief could receive a similar nostalgia boost to Spyro/Crash/Pikachu. Then again, even putting Chief in the same conversation as those guys doesn't feel right so forget it. So uh what else is there? Auron potentially underperforming? Yuna splitting votes with Claire? It being a day match? Underestimating Halo not working in GOTD? That being said, the pic for that match is amazing. It's like the two chicks are having a gunfight and Chief is facing the audience as if to beg us to vote him out of there. Think Claire might underperform due to having an Operation Raccoon City pic though? --- Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC |
Oh well, at this rate at least Pyramid Head will be close enough to feel justified about going No Pick. --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
Actually,
Pyramid Head cut 90 votes off the lead that last hour. If he can
sustain that pace, he'll eventually catch up to Nook. He might be able
to make this interesting after all. It's just a matter of what he does
once we hit the morning vote. --- http://img.imgcake.com/tumblrmb8ky9zpsk1qd3518o8250gifyd.gif http://img.imgcake.com/tumblrmb8ky9zpsk1qd3518o6250gifuv.gif |
Pyramid
Head struck me as the character "Smart Voters" would go to so I picked
him for second. I hope he actually does manage to catch up to Nooky
somehow! --- Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC |
"Smart Voters" I'm gonna vomit please stop posting --- http://img.imgcake.com/KommunistKoala/koalajpgehsa.jpg http://img.imgcake.com/KKpngat.png |
One
thing that scares me about this next match is Master Chief has always
looked much better in 4 ways. Three ways still mean he can't be
anti-voted. He does have a lot going against him though, but this being
multi-way wouldn't make me shocked if he kicked some ass. --- www.dudewheresmyfreedom.com Proud to share the same beliefs as SmartMuffin |
After Auron's win: Score-Brackets-% Right 56------1------------100.00 55------1------------100.00 54------10----------100.00 53------28----------100.00 52------62----------100.00 51------109--------98.17 50------172--------98.26 49------164--------91.46 48------195--------92.82 47------257--------77.43 46------358--------75.98 45------490--------70.82 44------659--------71.47 43------836--------63.64 42------1069------62.49 41------1218------62.48 40------1222------55.89 39------1244------54.34 38------1242------53.30 37------998--------47.49 36------874--------47.71 35------720--------39.03 34------650--------39.08 33------516--------38.57 32------425--------40.24 31------356--------36.80 30------263--------34.60 29------211--------28.91 28------175--------37.14 27------176--------29.55 26------90----------31.11 25------80----------23.75 24------79----------30.38 23------60----------36.67 22------54----------25.93 21------41----------46.34 20------26----------38.46 19------29----------51.72 18------13----------23.08 17------12----------16.67 16------8------------0.00 15------9------------44.44 14------5------------0.00 13------6------------16.67 12------2------------50.00 11------3------------0.00 10------1------------0.00 9--------1------------0.00 8--------2------------0.00 7--------15----------0.00 6--------1------------0.00 5--------1------------0.00 4--------5------------0.00 3--------2------------0.00 2--------3------------0.00 1--------4------------0.00 0--------1------------0.00 Usual easy match. Everyone in the top 102 gets ir right so no one falls off the Top 49. --- Pokemon VGC2013 BC Regional - 16th place Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place |
Achromatic posted... One thing that scares me about this next match is Master Chief has always looked much better in 4 ways. Three ways still mean he can't be anti-voted. He does have a lot going against him though, but this being multi-way wouldn't make me shocked if he kicked some ass. Yeah, I'd feel better if this were 1v1. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
After L-Block's win: Score-Brackets-% Right 57------1------------100.00 56------1------------100.00 55------10----------100.00 54------28----------92.86 53------62----------98.39 52------107--------95.33 51------171--------97.66 50------153--------94.77 49------195--------94.36 48------213--------92.96 47------330--------86.67 46------433--------85.68 45------614--------86.16 44------720--------80.97 43------972--------82.30 42------1162------77.97 41------1140------78.07 40------1215------76.87 39------1230------74.15 38------1054------71.92 37------941--------70.46 36------738--------64.63 35------693--------63.06 34------595--------60.00 33------488--------56.15 32------385--------50.91 31------316--------52.53 30------233--------43.35 29------215--------44.19 28------162--------43.21 27------152--------48.03 26------81----------48.15 25------85----------42.35 24------77----------45.45 23------52----------26.92 22------59----------42.37 21------32----------40.63 20------31----------45.16 19------17----------35.29 18------12----------41.67 17------10----------20.00 16------12----------33.33 15------5------------0.00 14------6------------16.67 13------6------------0.00 12------1------------0.00 11------3------------33.33 10------1------------0.00 9--------1------------0.00 8--------2------------0.00 7--------15----------0.00 6--------1------------100.00 5--------1------------0.00 4--------5------------0.00 3--------2------------0.00 2--------3------------0.00 1--------4------------0.00 0--------1------------0.00 Pretty easy match but not as easy as Auron's. -6s (53 points) end up doing better than the -5s (54 points). Middle tiers are close to clearing 80. No one fell off the Top 49. 2 people got it wrong and survived. BakusaiTenketsu and Colegreen_c12 did not have L-Block winning. --- Pokemon VGC2013 BC Regional - 16th place Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place |
This
will be the only third match ever for Claire, and the first since that
very entertaining 2006 loss to Kairi. I was a total Kingdom Hearts
fanboy in 2006 and actually voted against Claire in that match (I
also voted for Peach against Jill). I've since backed Jill with every
fiber of my being. In just a few hours, I get to make amends to the
other awesome Resident Evil heroine. Can't wait. Master Chief for third place in a day match against two night-oriented female characters. Make it happen, universe. --- Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) http://i.imgur.com/NQTthNf.jpg |
xp1337 posted... Achromatic posted...One thing that scares me about this next match is Master Chief has always looked much better in 4 ways. Three ways still mean he can't be anti-voted. He does have a lot going against him though, but this being multi-way wouldn't make me shocked if he kicked some ass. If this were 1v1, I might take freakin' Claire against him. I have very little faith in Master Chief right now and only fear his winning because he's carrying more lucky advantages into his match than almost anyone else. --- Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif |
Eh, I don't know if it's "Chief was much better in 4-ways" or "Chief was just stronger in 2007 and 2008." That was definitely
the case in 2007. 2008 is a bit iffy. He looked pretty pedestrian in a
match with Raiden and Kain Highwind. He would've been eliminated in
round 2 if not for Raiden to hold back Big Boss (with an old man pic, no
less!). I've always been kind of skeptical of the idea that certain characters do better or worse in multi-way polls because there isn't a lot of concrete evidence to support it. I've seen people throw it around for Sonic and Mega Man being worse in 4-ways, but it's possible they were just weaker those two years (and they had a reason to be weaker). --- "Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!" "Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!" |
Claire is like the only main RE character that's gotten virtually no exposure in the last 10 years. Poor thing --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
....No more Western characters. These ugly automatons just keep disappointing even when expected to disappoint. --- Fine! I'll go to the store and get your Goddamn drain cleaner! Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over.... |
It's
okay. By the time we get our next Character Battle, we should have a
nice, shiny new crew of Final Fantasy XV party members to get into the
contest! --- http://i.imgur.com/CbfFb.jpg |
Only
31 votes cut off that last hour, which is definitely not a fast enough
pace to win. Pyramid Head still only needs to cut 6.39 votes per update
to win though. --- http://gifsoup.com/view/477513/red-vs-blue-road-rage-part-1-o.gif http://gifsoup.com/view/477534/red-vs-blue-road-rage-part-2-o.gif |
I
wouldn't have been at all surprised if Nook had broken 40% on
Dragonborn, but the fact that Pyramid Head is right at that threshold as
well is a nice bonus. Dragonborn should still end up overperforming
next round (assuming Yuna makes it with him), so Pyramid Head will end
up looking not too bad by the end of this. --- Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif |
Some
characters have to be stronger depending on the number of participants
in a match. There are some "cult" characters (like, say, Phoenix) who
have a base that absolutely love them and will vote them over almost
anyone. On the other hand there are characters like Mario, who most
people like pretty well, but won't vote for compared to their favorites
(well, maybe not in raw numbers since Mario is way stronger than
Phoenix, but I'm sure it's true in percentage of fans). The former
characters are bound to perform better in multiway formats, and the
latter will perform better in 1v1s. --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
Yeah,
we threw around the theories about that for years, but I'm still not
sure we ever saw clear evidence it happened. In the case of someone like
Phoenix Wright, he never really looked noticeably stronger in a 4-way
setting, at least not to me. He had to hold on for dear life to beat
Bomberman and finished dead last against (you guessed it) Mario the next
round in 2007. --- http://i.imgur.com/eqOQs.gif |
I
mean, the only thing I'd say where it would definitely matter is in the
case of joke/rallied characters, like L-Block in 2007. But in terms of
just a normal character with normal patterns, it never really
materialized. 4-ways were just wonky and threw out inconsistent results
all the time. --- http://i43.tinypic.com/dgwh0.gif http://www.majhost.com/gallery/atukam/OHWD/snownd.gif |
Agreed,
those theories are still just theories, and pretty unsubstantiated. I
remember one of the earliest argument for em was when the stats topic
really jumped on Vyse > Nightmare. The idea was that while Nightmare
would win a 1v1, Snake's presence would eat up most of the votes, and a
hardcore character like Vyse would benefit because his fans were less
likely to leave him. Then the match came and Nightmare crushed Vyse easily. In fact, the ease of his victory (68/32) indicated that it could have easily been better what he'd be able to do against Vyse in a 1v1. I think it was around this time that some users (I remember creativename in particular) tossing around the possibility of a "hardcore voter" theory. The idea behind that theory is that hardcore fans of hardcore characters (Vyse in this case) are, in fact, so f***ing hardcore that they can like tons of different characters and were actually just as likely - if not MORE likely - to vote for someone else. F***ing loved it. --- Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) http://i.imgur.com/gdl8lcn.jpg |
I voted for Vyse despite liking Snake better because I knew Snake had first place all wrapped up. And yeah, I don't really think fans of "hardcore/niche/cult" things are any different than normal fans. As someone who has played some cult/niche things in recent years, I can go ahead and tell you that I won't vote them over anything and everything mainstream! Pretty sure most of my favorite stuff is still mainstream! Now I'll be more likely to vote for them in matches where they're guaranteed to lose even if they're up against a character I like better (as I did with Vyse against Snake), but those cases are not as "special" as we've often made them out to be, I think. --- http://i.imgur.com/eqOQs.gif |
I've
argued for non-transitivity among voters for many years now (I'm
guessing all of us subscribe to at least some degree of
non-transitivity, but I probably take it further than most). GameFAQs is
a hardcore site. Most of the people here are familiar with most of the
characters in the poll, and most of us don't really have a rigid,
unbreakable order of preference for these characters. It might sound a little too happy-go-lucky, but most hardcore gamers generally view well-known game characters favorably. I'd probably vote for Mario over Mega Man most times, but it wouldn't take very much at all for me to vote Mega Man. Same with Luigi vs Big Boss in the next round. Same for a ton of other matches we've already had, including tonight's. That's how we get things such as "stand out factor" and "roided" versions of non-joke characters as a contest trudges along (Snake, Charizard, etc). That's why I always try to "envision" a debated match on the front page and try to think of what the voter pool has experienced with the contest thus far and how that overall experience may or may not sway things. --- http://i.imgur.com/a4GuDV3.gif |
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