Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1098

#1 | Articuno2001 | Posted 8/7/2013 7:50:48 PM | message detail
Keeping everything consistent.

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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Character Battle IX: 50/59 points, Next matches: L-Block, Dragonborn
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#2 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/7/2013 7:52:55 PM | message detail
#3 | ffmasterjose | Posted 8/7/2013 7:53:53 PM | message detail
Leon why are making pro wrestling references when you don't even watch it
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The Great GameFAQs Character Battle IX contest: 52/59 pts
NP: L-Block > Teemo > Palutena
#4 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 8/7/2013 7:54:18 PM | message detail
Dragonborn with 60% or get out.
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#5 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/7/2013 7:54:59 PM | message detail
I used to watch wrestling all the time!

What, is there some sort of statute of limitations on wrestling references or something?
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#6 | pjbasis | Posted 8/7/2013 7:55:01 PM | message detail
If Pyramid loses to Nook I will be....UPSET AGAIN
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#7 | CybrMonkey | Posted 8/7/2013 7:57:09 PM | message detail
Nook 3:16 says I just sold your ass!
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#8 | HaRRicH | Posted 8/7/2013 8:10:50 PM | message detail | (edited)
red sox 777 posted...
There was no reneging because the unilateral statement, "I'll close my account if that happens," does not constitute a bet. A one-sided declaration is not a binding contract.

Not true -- BT and I had an account bet over Mega Man/Snake in 2008. He took Mega Man, I took Snake.

red sox 777 posted...
And the conditions of the actual bet were not met (Snake beating MM + Zero or something like that).

The condition was that the bet would be cancelled if Zero was in the match. Vivi barely lost the Zero the round before, allowing Zero into the match in question.

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Good to know that so many people care about some off-handed comments from 6 years ago.

Seriously, how the hell does anyone remember that? I sure didn't.

Conveniently forgetting the past again, I see. It wasn't an offhand comment; we argued about it for the majority of the contest. Friendly reminder, since you never acknowledged being in the wrong since then: Snake was less than a percent away from beating Mega Man AND Zero.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3296
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#9 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/7/2013 8:11:59 PM | message detail
If Dragonborn loses to a friggin Animal Crossing character I will be so mad.
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#10 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/7/2013 8:12:50 PM | message detail
I just want a crazy off the walls upset. I have no attachment to Dragonborn whatsoever, so if Tom Nook does it, I will be happy.
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#11 | pjbasis | Posted 8/7/2013 8:12:54 PM | message detail
Dragonborn isn't going to lose
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#12 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/7/2013 8:13:24 PM | message detail
HaRRicH posted...
red sox 777 posted...
There was no reneging because the unilateral statement, "I'll close my account if that happens," does not constitute a bet. A one-sided declaration is not a binding contract.

Not true -- BT and I had an account bet over Mega Man/Snake in 2008. He took Mega Man, I took Snake.

red sox 777 posted...
And the conditions of the actual bet were not met (Snake beating MM + Zero or something like that).

The condition was that the bet would be cancelled if Zero was in the match. Vivi barely lost the Zero the round before, allowing Zero into the match in question.

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Good to know that so many people care about some off-handed comments from 6 years ago.

Seriously, how the hell does anyone remember that? I sure didn't.

Conveniently forgetting the past again, I see. It wasn't an offhand comment; we argued about it for the majority of the contest. Friendly reminder, since you never acknowledged being in the wrong since then: Snake was less than a percent away from beating Mega Man AND Zero.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3296


Yet another example of someone that spends way too much time thinking about this topic for their own good. The bet was off because of Zero, and you likely would have won if he wasn't there. I was wrong in that I didn't anticipate Snake's Brawl boost lasting as long as it did.

Is that what you want to hear to drop it?
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#13 | pjbasis | Posted 8/7/2013 8:13:43 PM | message detail
Besides, if Nook can beat Dragonborn, I hope to god Pyramid Head is beating both of them.
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#14 | 2Dover3D | Posted 8/7/2013 8:14:23 PM | message detail
45% is no guarantee for Dragonborn, nor should it serve as his pink slip from these contests. Tom Nook might put up a crazy overperformance. He stands out about as much as possible, and neither of his opponents have the slightest tie to Nintendo.


I'm sorry, if you can't double an Animal Crossing character then you have no place in these contests any more, and this comes from a big Skyrim fan. We should find another Skyrim character that might have more success if thats the case... maybe the guard who took an arrow in the knee.
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#15 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/7/2013 8:14:49 PM | message detail
spoilers having a good memory is not the same thing as "spends too much time thinking about this"

But I'm glad 5 years later you can finally admit you would've been wrong

Maybe you are making progress after all
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#16 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/7/2013 8:15:49 PM | message detail
BT do you even like posting in here? It seems that all it does is piss you off.
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#17 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/7/2013 8:15:58 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
spoilers having a good memory is not the same thing as "spends too much time thinking about this"

But I'm glad 5 years later you can finally admit you would've been wrong

Maybe you are making progress after all


I've never had an issue admitting when I'm wrong. It just happens so rarely that you think I do.
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#18 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/7/2013 8:16:38 PM | message detail
I'm not ready to drop it! Reneging is a broader term than red sox gives credit for, in no way does it ever have to involve a bet. A promise or any contract is also sufficient. Let's be clear with our words, folks!
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#19 | xp1337 | Posted 8/7/2013 8:18:25 PM | message detail | (edited)
2Dover3D posted...
45% is no guarantee for Dragonborn, nor should it serve as his pink slip from these contests. Tom Nook might put up a crazy overperformance. He stands out about as much as possible, and neither of his opponents have the slightest tie to Nintendo.


I'm sorry, if you can't double an Animal Crossing character then you have no place in these contests any more, and this comes from a big Skyrim fan. We should find another Skyrim character that might have more success if thats the case... maybe the guard who took an arrow in the knee.

If Dragonborn is weak then no one in Skyrim will have anything even approaching strength.

I mean, hypothetically who would even be the strongest character from Skyrim after Dragonborn? Ulfric? This is totally Dragonborn or bust.
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#20 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/7/2013 8:17:47 PM | message detail
ExThaNemesis posted...
BT do you even like posting in here? It seems that all it does is piss you off.


I love the analytical discussion that happens in here, and for the most part I enjoy posting in here. It's just when some jealous assclown starts jumping down my throat when I'm right and they're wrong that it gets painful.
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#21 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/7/2013 8:18:33 PM | message detail
2Dover3D posted...
45% is no guarantee for Dragonborn, nor should it serve as his pink slip from these contests. Tom Nook might put up a crazy overperformance. He stands out about as much as possible, and neither of his opponents have the slightest tie to Nintendo.


I'm sorry, if you can't double an Animal Crossing character then you have no place in these contests any more, and this comes from a big Skyrim fan. We should find another Skyrim character that might have more success if thats the case... maybe the guard who took an arrow in the knee.


Multiway polls are so much less transitive than traditional 1v1. You can't use a character's first multiway poll to cast final judgment on them. Kefka lost to Marcus Phoenix in one multiway poll and then finished last against scrubs in another. Should we have forced him to "retire" five years ago?
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#22 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/7/2013 8:18:37 PM | message detail
#23 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/7/2013 8:19:48 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
I'm not ready to drop it! Reneging is a broader term than red sox gives credit for, in no way does it ever have to involve a bet. A promise or any contract is also sufficient. Let's be clear with our words, folks!


Karma Hunter is an excellent example of what I was talking about. A constant source of uneducated drivel and borderline harassment.
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#24 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/7/2013 8:20:59 PM | message detail
so when Tom Nook makes round 3 and doesn't get doubled by Samus, we can call the whole division fodder right





........






LOL who am I kidding, no way he does any better than 2nd
#25 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/7/2013 8:22:03 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
2Dover3D posted...
45% is no guarantee for Dragonborn, nor should it serve as his pink slip from these contests. Tom Nook might put up a crazy overperformance. He stands out about as much as possible, and neither of his opponents have the slightest tie to Nintendo.


I'm sorry, if you can't double an Animal Crossing character then you have no place in these contests any more, and this comes from a big Skyrim fan. We should find another Skyrim character that might have more success if thats the case... maybe the guard who took an arrow in the knee.


Multiway polls are so much less transitive than traditional 1v1. You can't use a character's first multiway poll to cast final judgment on them. Kefka lost to Marcus Phoenix in one multiway poll and then finished last against scrubs in another. Should we have forced him to "retire" five years ago?


Honestly there's a lot of characters that have been informally retired over the years, multiway polls or not, that probably shouldn't be. One of the only good things about the multiway format, a contest format that I detest, is that it allowed the return of characters that would have never gotten another fair swing otherwise. We'd likely have never seen Pikachu again, for instance - and while I don't credit him like most of this topic does, he's not getting doubled by Fox anymore.

A lot of nominating should be focused on people that deserve another shot.
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#26 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/7/2013 8:23:04 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
A lot of nominating should be focused on people that deserve another shot.


How long did it take you guys to notice Marcus Fenix didn't make the bracket?
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#27 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/7/2013 8:24:34 PM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
I'm not ready to drop it! Reneging is a broader term than red sox gives credit for, in no way does it ever have to involve a bet. A promise or any contract is also sufficient. Let's be clear with our words, folks!


Karma Hunter is an excellent example of what I was talking about. A constant source of uneducated drivel and borderline harassment.


hey remember when The Boss had no chance against Celes

would that fall more in the drivel thing or the harassment thing
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#28 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/7/2013 8:27:08 PM | message detail
I find KH to be pretty mild (both in education and harasing terms!!)

If you want harassment I think you should feel more inclined to look my way, as there'll be nothing borderline about it. You have a bad habit of being an abrasive a-hole about most subjects BT, and that's the cause for the reception you get in here. Nothing else.
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#29 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/7/2013 8:27:46 PM | message detail
hey guys remember when Axel Steel was going to beat Midna because Guitar Hero sold 10 million copies
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#30 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/7/2013 8:28:45 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
hey guys remember when Axel Steel was going to beat Midna because Guitar Hero sold 10 million copies


There's also Red Bird > Jill Valentine coming up.

though man if BT being wrong happened so infrequently you'd think there wouldn't be so many instances of it
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#31 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/7/2013 9:01:55 PM | message detail | (edited)
Teemo turns out to be so weak that he gets doubled by Palutena, while L-Block cruises to over 60% of the vote. The rally never materialises.

Round 1, Match 61

(3) Dragonborn
(16) Tom Nook
(25) Pyramid Head

Another fodderfest, this time with the addition of a new western entrant of unknown strength. Dragonborn is from Skyrim, so while I don't think he's going to channel Shepard or anything, he should be able to deal with characters from Silent Hill and Animal Crossing. I'd be one of the first to pick against him if the was up against a midcarder, but these guys are weak. If he fails to double either of these guys, he's probably very weak and guranteed third in round two regardless of who he goes against.

Tom Nook has looked terrible in every poll he's been in, but he should be able to perform better when he's not dealing with other Nintendo, has had a recent game, and stands out well. He could still flop and even lose to Pyramid Head, but everything seems set up for him to perform well here.

Pyramid Head managed to beat Chris Redfield back in 2007, but he was still getting thumped by Shadow. I can't imagine the intervening six years have helped him any. He might still have the highest guaranteed strength of anyone in this match.

Bracket: Dragonborn
Expert: Dragonborn > Tom Nook > Pyramid Head
Oracle: Dragonborn - 47%; Tom Nook - 31%; Pyramid Head - 22%
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#32 | HaRRicH | Posted 8/7/2013 8:31:12 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
How long did it take you guys to notice Marcus Fenix didn't make the bracket?

Until now...dang.


As for today...LoL's so weird to gauge. Draven could still do basically anything this contest, yet Teemo doesn't seem to have a hint of a rally. I guess he's more hated than I realized.
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#33 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/7/2013 8:32:47 PM | message detail
Speaking of Marcus Fenix and Tom Nook, I remember Kefka's ASV being so bad in that match that Tom Nook was making semi-regular cuts on him.

FFVI's day vote is so bad.
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#34 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/7/2013 8:32:59 PM | message detail
Marcus Fenix is not that strong anymore.
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#35 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/7/2013 8:34:29 PM | message detail
You know who did have some strength, made it to round three, and broke 40% on Zelda?

Jecht.
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#36 | HaRRicH | Posted 8/7/2013 8:35:12 PM | message detail
Also, snarky comments aside, good job on the confession BT. Didn't think you had it in you, even with the attitude that came with it.
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#37 | CrushDavis | Posted 8/7/2013 8:37:17 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
You know who did have some strength, made it to round three, and broke 40% on Zelda?

Jecht.


Huh, I just realized he wasn't in the contest either. Thats a surprise, he actually had some good strength.
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#38 | Articuno2001 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/7/2013 8:39:33 PM | message detail
Jecht got 40% on Zelda on the day of FFXIII's release.

It definitely helped him somewhat.
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#39 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/7/2013 8:41:39 PM | message detail
Articuno2001 posted...
Jecht got 40% on Zelda on the day of FFXIII's release.

It definitely helped him somewhat.


Not as much as people like to believe. Zelda rocked Aerith so bad that she looked equal to Yuna on FFXII's release date. I hate to think how badly Aerith would've lost on any other day.
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#40 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/7/2013 8:42:31 PM | message detail
Liquid Snake could basically be anywhere after what we've seen out of MGS this year. Darth Revan got 46% (and probably something like 48% in a 24-hour match) on a Terra who's boosted to a really strong midcarder level. Axel shoulda beaten Frog, though who knows where's at these days. C'mon people!
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#41 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/7/2013 8:42:49 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
A lot of nominating should be focused on people that deserve another shot.


How long did it take you guys to notice Marcus Fenix didn't make the bracket?


Not until you said it. I guess losing to Rydia doesn't seem so bad now, does it?
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#42 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/7/2013 8:44:02 PM | message detail
Dante beat Axel as badly as Mega Man did! KH in general was weaker in 2010, and Axel got fodderized by the fodder killer.
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#43 | SnoicFactor | Posted 8/7/2013 8:44:16 PM | message detail
Dragonborn gonna stomp.
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#44 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/7/2013 8:44:51 PM | message detail
And yeah, Revan definitely deserves to come back. That loss to Terra looked bad when it happened, but he turned out to be decent after seeing how much she boosted.
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#45 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/7/2013 8:45:50 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Dante beat Axel as badly as Mega Man did! KH in general was weaker in 2010, and Axel got fodderized by the fodder killer.


That's just the kinda thing I mean, though. Axel (and KH) could have rebounded from an off year. But we'll never know unless we see him again!

...I mean, you think Bowser 60-40s Ryu again?
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#46 | creativename | Posted 8/7/2013 8:47:21 PM | message detail
In the next match, I'm expected Pyramid Head to do pretty terrible, even compared to Nook...Pyramid Head is probably like a Big Daddy in that they lose lots of strength after their games become irrelvant. And PH's games weren't too relevant here to begin with.

Also in the X/Ryu/Draven match I thought all the people that thought Draven had a shot were crazy, X/Ryu are too well known and would grab too much support from any voters sent here...sadly everyone probably realizes that now and will pick Draven last in that match. Too bad, we might have seen some movement in the expert with people that actually had faith in Draven, but that won't happen now.
Articuno2001 posted...
Jecht got 40% on Zelda on the day of FFXIII's release.

It definitely helped him somewhat.

Jecht did well because Jecht rules.

This is the only reason.

And Jecht will always rule. Hence he will always do well.
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#47 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/7/2013 8:48:26 PM | message detail
Hey, last time Ryu and Bowser had a match, Ryu won, so he's the stronger character until proven otherwise!
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#48 | pjbasis | Posted 8/7/2013 8:48:33 PM | message detail
Damn Groose making me think the Nintendo option isn't invincible after all.

I keep wanting to switch to Nook but I like Silent Hill too much
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#49 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/7/2013 8:48:38 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
LeonhartFour posted...
hey guys remember when Axel Steel was going to beat Midna because Guitar Hero sold 10 million copies


There's also Red Bird > Jill Valentine coming up.

though man if BT being wrong happened so infrequently you'd think there wouldn't be so many instances of it


I don't feel comfortable at all in Red Bird. It was an attractive upset because it's an unknown character with probably the greatest install base on the site outside of the NN. If I could change it now I would.
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#50 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/7/2013 8:51:10 PM | message detail
pjbasis posted...
Damn Groose making me think the Nintendo option isn't invincible after all.

I keep wanting to switch to Nook but I like Silent Hill too much


as a counter-example, you know who we never ever ever EVER need to see again?

GROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOSE
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