Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1096

#401 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/7/2013 7:51:46 AM | message detail
spooky96 posted...
charmander6000’s Prediction: Teemo – 44.36%, L-Block – 42.52%, Palutena – 13.12%


Oh awesome. Feels like we're the only goddamn 2 people on this entire board who have this in Expert challenge.


I briefly considered the upset, then backed out of it.
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#402 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/7/2013 7:53:29 AM | message detail
Whoo more clones
But he is the original clone so he can stay
#403 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/7/2013 7:57:24 AM | message detail
UltimaterializerX posted...
Teemo is to LoL what Techies is to Dota.

Any rally for that POS will hilariously backfire, because the only people that like Teemo, play Teemo. Everyone else hates the mushroom crap.


Wait, how is it that Ulti re-phrases an argument I made a month ago and noone is jumping down his throat?
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#404 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/7/2013 7:58:25 AM | message detail
Teemo WILL get rallied
But the question is how the rally will go
Will they hate him just enough to vote for L Block,or will they hate him so darn much that they will vote Platunia for the sake of making him last
#405 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/7/2013 8:01:28 AM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
UltimaterializerX posted...
Teemo is to LoL what Techies is to Dota.

Any rally for that POS will hilariously backfire, because the only people that like Teemo, play Teemo. Everyone else hates the mushroom crap.


Wait, how is it that Ulti re-phrases an argument I made a month ago and noone is jumping down his throat?


Maybe because your original post was something like "Teemo is like Techies and thats a fact trust me I have 7 years of Dota exprience and top 10 guru so my opinion is perfect and yours not"?
#406 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/7/2013 8:20:28 AM | message detail
So on the LoL food chain....Draven >>> Teemo?
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#407 | xp1337 | Posted 8/7/2013 8:23:55 AM | message detail | (edited)
I'm probably going to stick with L-Block here. Teemo would have to get a rally that is notably better than Draven to win here, I think. I imagine he'll get something which should kick him from last into second, but this is just such a bad place to try and rally out of IMO. If it actually happens I'll be worried for MMX unless something really weird happens like L-Block looking horrible compared to Palutena.

It helps that it's the "safe" pick so missing it is likely to be mostly harmless. I hate thinking like that though!

Annoying match.
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#408 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/7/2013 8:24:26 AM | message detail
quick, someone rally the FGC to vote for Mega Man X and not Ryu
#409 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/7/2013 8:25:05 AM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
quick, someone rally the FGC to vote for Mega Man X and not Ryu


No way, rally for Ryu
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#410 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/7/2013 8:27:14 AM | message detail
Oh awesome. Feels like we're the only goddamn 2 people on this entire board who have this in Expert challenge.

It is a bit of a risk, I did the math and the upset is possible, but LoL fans will have to go full force for most of the poll and hope Teemo gets some love (doesn't need to be much)/Palutena performs better than expected.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 46/58 Today's Picks: Auron and L-Block
#411 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/7/2013 8:30:47 AM | message detail
Auron does a bit worse than many expected, getting to the high 50s on Ocelot and the high 60s on Roxas, but he shouldn't have any difficulty getting through round two, and you could probably point to MGSV hype and Roxas overlap as reasons for it. Ocelot looks pretty good, and therefore so does Red (and MMX) on reflection. Roxas just looks like a girl (sorry, I can't get over that!).

Round 1, Match 60

(8) L-Block
(11) Teemo
(20) Palutena

The original rally king who conquered them all is the first obstacle facing League's second challenger, Teemo. Funny how these things work out. The thing is, Teemo's base strength is low enough that he could lose to Palutena, given that Chie was far ahead of Draven's base strength, so he's gonna have to rise a long way to challenge the Block, who while not very strong, could at least 60/40 Isaac.

This match just comes down to how much rallying you think there'll be. If there's none at all, Teemo probably loses to Palutena. If there's some but it filters out, he comes second, and if LoL goes Draven-in-the-night 1500 votes-per-hour crazy, he can win. I don't think that's altogether likely though.

Bracket: L-Block
Expert: L-Block > Teemo > Palutena
Oracle: L-Block - 50%; Teemo - 27.5%; Palutena - 22.5%
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#412 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 8/7/2013 8:32:08 AM | message detail | (edited)
Teemo definitely scares me. He could win or comfortably finish last.
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Bracket score: 49 / Expert score: 228
#413 | spooky96 | Posted 8/7/2013 8:34:46 AM | message detail | (edited)
Well not a 'bit' (HUGE) of risk, I'm considering this a big gamble for me lol. I mean I only have 205 and 46 points. So I sort of need to win in order to catch up, everyone seems to have L > Teemo/other thing. So it'll help me a lot if this gamble works in my favor.

High risk, high return basically.
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#414 | Xuxon | Posted 8/7/2013 8:35:18 AM | message detail
From: xp1337 | Posted: 8/7/2013 11:23:55 AM | #407
I'm probably going to stick with L-Block here. Teemo would have to get a rally that is notably better than Draven to win here, I think. I imagine he'll get something which should kick him from last into second, but this is just such a bad place to try and rally out of IMO. If it actually happens I'll be worried for MMX unless something really weird happens like L-Block looking horrible compared to Palutena.

It helps that it's the "safe" pick so missing it is likely to be mostly harmless. I hate thinking like that though!

Annoying match.

they don't even need to rally at a higher rate. if they just start at the beginning of the match and go at the same rate, Teemo should win.
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#415 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 8/7/2013 8:36:04 AM | message detail
save_us.block
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#416 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/7/2013 8:38:42 AM | message detail
LOL faqs I say.Man how would I like to win based on a rally!
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#417 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/7/2013 8:39:47 AM | message detail
ZenOfThunder posted...
save_us.block


LOL how things have changed
#418 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/7/2013 8:40:17 AM | message detail
League of L-Block
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#419 | xp1337 | Posted 8/7/2013 8:40:46 AM | message detail
How many votes do you think Teemo can bring in here? Because I'm thinking with no rally L-Block is probably around 55-60% and Teemo is around 15-20%

Let's say the votals are 30k and that means I have L-Block pulling in 16.5-18k votes and Teemo at 4.5-6k.

I don't know if Teemo can net 10.5-13.5k rallied votes here. I'm thinking L-Block can steal quite a few. Now, if you have L-Block doing worse, Teemo doing better, or Palutena doing better (and this coming at L-Block's expense more than Teemo's) then the math gets easier, but I don't like Teemo's chances here.

Can it be done? Yeah, it could, I just don't think it's more likely than it not.
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#420 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 8/7/2013 8:45:56 AM | message detail
Think Luigi being in SSB4 will boost him in any significant way? I mean, I already had Luigi beating Big Boss before, but a great bunch of people did not.
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#421 | Xuxon | Posted 8/7/2013 8:45:56 AM | message detail
Draven got over 9000, probably closer to 1000 in a night match, and didn't start until a bit over 2 hours into it. that means if Teemo rallied at the same rate from the beginning, he should get about 12k, which i think is going to be enough (i don't think this would get 30k without a rally). then you figure it could go quicker due to being able to rally more people because of the time, and i'm thinking it's very likely Teemo pulls it off.
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#422 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/7/2013 8:48:58 AM | message detail
ctesjbuvf posted...
Think Luigi being in SSB4 will boost him in any significant way? I mean, I already had Luigi beating Big Boss before, but a great bunch of people did not.


I doubt it'll matter much. Did anyone not expect Luigi to be in the game?
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#423 | xp1337 | Posted 8/7/2013 8:49:20 AM | message detail
Xuxon posted...
Draven got over 9000, probably closer to 1000 in a night match, and didn't start until a bit over 2 hours into it. that means if Teemo rallied at the same rate from the beginning, he should get about 12k, which i think is going to be enough (i don't think this would get 30k without a rally). then you figure it could go quicker due to being able to rally more people because of the time, and i'm thinking it's very likely Teemo pulls it off.

30k is probably high for a votal prediction but it's also a nice, easy round number to work with and it's likely not going to be too far off.

This also assumes that L-Block will be no more effective at drawing away rallied votes than Jak and Chie were. I don't buy that argument! I think Teemo would need to draw in more raw votes to overcome that. Teemo's rally might bring in 12k votes but if it splits 10k-2k for L-Block (or Palutena) it's only a net of 8!
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#424 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/7/2013 8:50:18 AM | message detail
So using a constant Ocelot MMX is expected to get 54.13% on Auron and 51.37% on Squall, that more or less puts him at above everyone Mega Man could beat except maybe Sonic, depending where you think he ranks
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 46/58 Today's Picks: Auron and L-Block
#425 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 8/7/2013 8:50:41 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
ctesjbuvf posted...
Think Luigi being in SSB4 will boost him in any significant way? I mean, I already had Luigi beating Big Boss before, but a great bunch of people did not.


I doubt it'll matter much. Did anyone not expect Luigi to be in the game?


That's what I thought too, but also that a small little boost might make the difference here.
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#426 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/7/2013 8:53:49 AM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
So using a constant Ocelot MMX is expected to get 54.13% on Auron and 51.37% on Squall, that more or less puts him at above everyone Mega Man could beat except maybe Sonic, depending where you think he ranks


I could buy that. MMX seems to be about equal to Mega Man indirectly based on a lot of past results, doesn't he?
#427 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/7/2013 8:55:33 AM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
So using a constant Ocelot MMX is expected to get 54.13% on Auron and 51.37% on Squall, that more or less puts him at above everyone Mega Man could beat except maybe Sonic, depending where you think he ranks


I'd probably agree with that. I would have put MMX slightly below Sonic.
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#428 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/7/2013 8:56:23 AM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
MMX seems to be about equal to Mega Man indirectly based on a lot of past results, doesn't he?


We don't really have a clean read on Mega Man X.

Comparing his performance on John Price and Mega Man's performances on Cid and Zack in 2010 don't really make X look like he's on that level though.

Not to mention I don't buy this being a totally clean performance by Ocelot compared to his 2010 number anyway, whether it be that he's riding a little high off of the MGSV hype, Auron/Roxas LFF, or a combination of both.
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#429 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/7/2013 8:56:47 AM | message detail
I could buy that. MMX seems to be about equal to Mega Man indirectly based on a lot of past results, doesn't he?

Those are mostly, which Mega Man series is your favourite which could have a Yoshi/Knuckles effect (or maybe not)
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 46/58 Today's Picks: Auron and L-Block
#430 | lightsout06 | Posted 8/7/2013 8:56:51 AM | message detail
Im pulling for Teemo with the upset on my expert and bracket
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#431 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/7/2013 8:57:13 AM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
So using a constant Ocelot MMX is expected to get 54.13% on Auron and 51.37% on Squall, that more or less puts him at above everyone Mega Man could beat except maybe Sonic, depending where you think he ranks


You mean that if Mega Man Squall was to happen,MM was not considered the favorite?
#432 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/7/2013 8:57:14 AM | message detail
So does Teemo start off with at least 15%?

Should be interesting.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 46/58 Today's Picks: Auron and L-Block
#433 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/7/2013 8:57:25 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
UltimaterializerX posted...
Teemo is to LoL what Techies is to Dota.

Any rally for that POS will hilariously backfire, because the only people that like Teemo, play Teemo. Everyone else hates the mushroom crap.


Wait, how is it that Ulti re-phrases an argument I made a month ago and noone is jumping down his throat?


Maybe because your original post was something like "Teemo is like Techies and thats a fact trust me I have 7 years of Dota exprience and top 10 guru so my opinion is perfect and yours not"?


I would laughably annihilate BT (and almost anyone else) in 1v1 mid only Dota.

I know it's a team game, but still.
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#434 | spooky96 | Posted 8/7/2013 8:57:45 AM | message detail
lightsout06 posted...
Im pulling for Teemo with the upset on my expert and bracket


People quickly make your changes!
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#435 | Denzokuken | Posted 8/7/2013 8:57:49 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/954437-league-of-legends/66922381

hmmm
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#436 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 8/7/2013 8:57:53 AM | message detail
I'd take Mega Man X to be just about the same strength as Mega Man. In a 1v1 match, Mega Man should SFF X though. So yeah, the only ones I'd pick to beat X would be the Noble Nine minus Sonic and Crono.
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#437 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/7/2013 8:58:27 AM | message detail
2 more minutes
Get ready to CAPTAIN TEEMO ON DUTY of losing
#438 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/7/2013 8:58:31 AM | message detail
You mean that if Mega Man Squall was to happen,MM was not considered the favorite?

Mega Man should win by more, but there aren't many characters placed between Mega Man and Squall.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 46/58 Today's Picks: Auron and L-Block
#439 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/7/2013 8:59:26 AM | message detail
I don't really buy MMX being on a Noble Nine level, and none of his performances have really given me that impression, obscured by LFF/SFF or not.
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#440 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/7/2013 8:59:59 AM | message detail
Denzokuken posted...
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/954437-league-of-legends/66922381

hmmm


All of those Tetris fanboys.
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#441 | tennisboy213 | Posted 8/7/2013 9:00:15 AM | message detail
Vote Accepted


L-Block
80%
12 Votes
Your Pick

Teemo
13.33%
2 Votes

Palutena
6.67%
1 Votes
Total Votes: 15
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#442 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 8/7/2013 9:00:25 AM | message detail
L-Block
66.67%
18 Votes
Your Pick
Teemo
11.11%
3 Votes
Palutena
22.22%
6 Votes
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#443 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/7/2013 9:00:25 AM | message detail
L-Block
76.92%
10 Votes

Teemo
15.38%
2 Votes

Palutena
7.69%
1 Votes
#444 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 8/7/2013 9:00:28 AM | message detail
L-Block
76.47%
13 Votes

Teemo
11.76%
2 Votes

Palutena
11.76%
2 Votes
Your Pick
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#445 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/7/2013 9:00:28 AM | message detail
For Mother Russia!!!


L-Block
87.5%
7 Votes

Teemo
0%
0 Votes

Palutena
12.5%
1 Votes
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 46/58 Today's Picks: Auron and L-Block
#446 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/7/2013 9:00:31 AM | message detail
L-Block
68.42%
13 Votes

Teemo
10.53%
2 Votes

Palutena
21.05%
4 Votes
Your Pick
Total Votes: 19
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#447 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/7/2013 9:00:32 AM | message detail
L-Block dominating out of the gate

Just like the old days
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#448 | spooky96 | Posted 8/7/2013 9:00:38 AM | message detail
jesus christ.
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#449 | xp1337 | Posted 8/7/2013 9:00:41 AM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
So does Teemo start off with at least 15%?

Should be interesting.

I have a hard time putting him at a lower base value, even if I think base Teemo will be terrible. I don't think Palutena will be doing all that much here, and after that I have trouble seeing L-Block totally blow this match apart so to me there has to be at least 15% left there for Teemo.
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#450 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/7/2013 9:00:52 AM | message detail
Vote Accepted
L-Block
85.71%
6 Votes
Your Pick
Teemo
0%
0 Votes
Palutena
14.29%
1 Votes
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