Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1096

#101 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/6/2013 12:04:11 PM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
ChenKenichiFan posted...
How could Snake finish last? Between his natural GameFAQs strength (which would be hypercharged by the silly final match he'd have to deal with) and all the anti-LoL rallies that would solely benefit him, we're looking at a potential 100,000 votes for Snake before he even begins to see returns from the LoL rallied voters who vote for Snake instead.

This isn't Chester or Luke fon Fabre. It's Solid Snake. If LoL rallies a MILLION voters, a good chunk of them would go to Snake.


No. If your logic held true, Draven would have lost to Link first. Unless you think that there is significantly more LoL/Snake overlap than LoL/Link, which seems unlikely. When you're talking numbers in the millions, you're pretty much hitting a large enough sample of the whole gaming populations. If Snake could take that many votes from Draven there, then Snake would have enough natural strength to beat Link. I don't buy it.


This isn't also accounting for Teemo, who would be crippling Draven compared to the Link match.
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#102 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/6/2013 12:06:01 PM | message detail
So if we ever have an all fictional characters contest, we're getting Launchpad in, right?
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#103 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/6/2013 12:12:00 PM | message detail
guys guys guys
clearly Luigi will ride a bandwagon to victory over Sephiroth, Link will edge out Draven, LoL fans will then give Link huge backlash, causing Luigi to make the finals

BELIEVE
#104 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/6/2013 12:12:31 PM | message detail
I missed some of the Snake discussion but I'm wondering if there's been a character besides he and Kefka that have as much visible variance in their performance related to the match picture?

Also was there anything noticeable in the difference between Snake's performances when he had his Old Snake picture?
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#105 | GloryChaos | Posted 8/6/2013 12:13:06 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
guys guys guys
clearly Luigi will ride a bandwagon to victory over Sephiroth, Link will edge out Draven, LoL fans will then give Link huge backlash, causing Luigi to make the finals

BELIEVE


YEAR OF LUIGI 2013.
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#106 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/6/2013 12:17:49 PM | message detail | (edited)
ExThaNemesis posted...
I missed some of the Snake discussion but I'm wondering if there's been a character besides he and Kefka that have as much visible variance in their performance related to the match picture?

Also was there anything noticeable in the difference between Snake's performances when he had his Old Snake picture?


Snake beat Sephiroth with almost exclusively Old Snake pictures. Old Snake also had a majority of pics in his match where he scored 48% on Cloud.

Edit: also if you're looking for some serious variance, apparently voters being reminded that Samus is a woman hurts her more than Solid Sprite according to some people~
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#107 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/6/2013 12:15:13 PM | message detail
What the HELL is this year of Luigi crap that I keep seeing?!
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Die young and save yourself.
Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work.
#108 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/6/2013 12:27:02 PM | message detail
ExThaNemesis posted...
What the HELL is this year of Luigi crap that I keep seeing?!


http://www.mariowiki.com/The_Year_of_Luigi
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#109 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/6/2013 12:34:16 PM | message detail
Team Rocket Elite posted...
Could I get someone to help me archive the leaderboard page for the next week or so? I won't be around much from August 7th to August 12th. Specifically I need the leaderboards from Auron/Ocelot/Roxas to Amaterasu/Vyse/Adol. You'll need to save the actual page and not just the text in the leaderboard since I need the data in the graph (and you only need to save the page once since it will contain the information for all of the graphs).


I just set up something that will automatically download the leaderboard page to my computer as an HTML file. This automatic download will occur every 12 hours, so I don't have to worry about missing a match. If someone has messed a match, you could try contacting me since I should have the missing pages.
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#110 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/6/2013 12:39:03 PM | message detail
Speaking of Luigi, Wolf getting crunched that hard makes his chances next round look a bit better. Day match too IIRC?
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#111 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/6/2013 12:39:58 PM | message detail
I truly hope that the LoL characters here die in the worst way in their next matches.
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Drop it to the floor...
#112 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/6/2013 12:45:19 PM | message detail
MegatokyoEd posted...
I see nothing wrong with a contest won by Launchpad McQuack!


It cost me a chance at the grand prize! I would've won 1st place in that dumb contest if Einstein had won!

Leave it to 4chan to pick the worst option to rally behind when it came down to it. Should've seen it coming!
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#113 | superange128 | Posted 8/6/2013 12:47:10 PM | message detail
kinsho3 posted...
I truly hope that the LoL characters here die in the worst way in their next matches.


Have you played League of Legends?
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#114 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/6/2013 12:47:11 PM | message detail
Also, I'm assuming KH was being a bit facetious with his Ezio comparisons, but the dude's had two games and a game that didn't feature him but people hated the new main character so much that he couldn't even make the contest since 2010 (what a sentence). No way he's not noticeably stronger now.
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#115 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/6/2013 12:53:25 PM | message detail
superange128 posted...
kinsho3 posted...
I truly hope that the LoL characters here die in the worst way in their next matches.


Have you played League of Legends?


I do
And I got 2 accounts one 28 other 24
And I share the same opinion as him
#116 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/6/2013 12:54:54 PM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Valve rallied Gordon..?
So why don't they care about Gamefaqs contests then?


It's anyone's guess. I still find it rather weird that Gordon Freeman and Kerrigan can win contests an another major gaming site, yet they're still pretty much nobodies in a GameFAQs Contest setting. ESPECIALLY Kerrigan.

Kerrigan doesn't deserve it either, although I haven't played StarCraft II so I guess I haven't witnessed her downfall there. Then again everyone's saying that Samus got ruined in Metroid: Other M and I don't get that at all.
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#117 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/6/2013 12:55:36 PM | message detail
Trend chart from the night match:

Time | Knux | Seifer | Celes | Votes
0:05 | 53.12% | 20.04% | 26.84% | 529
1:00 | 48.82% | 20.84% | 30.34% | 5119
2:00 | 47.98% | 22.25% | 29.77% | 2822
3:00 | 45.37% | 22.98% | 31.64% | 2171
4:00 | 44.16% | 26.22% | 29.62% | 1644
5:00 | 44.55% | 26.07% | 29.38% | 1358
6:00 | 43.26% | 28.13% | 28.61% | 1262
7:00 | 44.12% | 23.60% | 32.28% | 1462
8:00 | 43.46% | 25.04% | 31.49% | 1721
9:00 | 46.36% | 22.91% | 30.73% | 1868
10:00 | 45.32% | 23.10% | 31.58% | 1922
11:00 | 45.04% | 22.86% | 32.10% | 1894
12:00 | 48.50% | 22.02% | 29.47% | 1839

Knuckles rocks the early vote and spikes the last hour. Europe still loves FFVIII (another reason to be glad Squall/Missingno is a night match). Celes is kinda all over the place.

X-Stats:

Knuckles the Echidna – 50.00%
Celes Chere – 39.83%
Seifer Almasy – 33.43%

Knuckles's prediction percentage was 68.51%
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#118 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/6/2013 1:04:38 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
Team Rocket Elite posted...
Could I get someone to help me archive the leaderboard page for the next week or so? I won't be around much from August 7th to August 12th. Specifically I need the leaderboards from Auron/Ocelot/Roxas to Amaterasu/Vyse/Adol. You'll need to save the actual page and not just the text in the leaderboard since I need the data in the graph (and you only need to save the page once since it will contain the information for all of the graphs).


I just set up something that will automatically download the leaderboard page to my computer as an HTML file. This automatic download will occur every 12 hours, so I don't have to worry about missing a match. If someone has messed a match, you could try contacting me since I should have the missing pages.


Awesome. Thanks.
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#119 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/6/2013 1:20:20 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
wasn't the 200k votes over like a week though?
which makes it even worse than this contest, averaged per day


I still have the spreadsheet of the poll updates that TRE tracked for Mario/Gordon on my computer. According to the poll updates, the match had 75660 votes after the first day and that was with extreme rallying.
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#120 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/6/2013 1:22:17 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
1337gamerpr0 posted...
wasn't the 200k votes over like a week though?
which makes it even worse than this contest, averaged per day


I still have the spreadsheet of the poll updates that TRE tracked for Mario/Gordon on my computer. According to the poll updates, the match had 75660 votes after the first day and that was with extreme rallying.


that's still pretty bad actually given that's 24 hours
(granted it might beat this contest, but still)
#121 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/6/2013 1:27:02 PM | message detail
Also, I'm assuming KH was being a bit facetious with his Ezio comparisons, but the dude's had two games and a game that didn't feature him but people hated the new main character so much that he couldn't even make the contest since 2010 (what a sentence). No way he's not noticeably stronger now.

I don't think Ezio is that much stronger (as in I doubt he scores more than 55% on his former self), the two new games aren't going to boost him that much and people hating the new main character is not going to boost him, at best it stops his fans from forgetting him.


Besides if you believe Bowser would have won over Charizard in a fair match there isn't that much room for Charizard to finish above Zelda anyways.
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Points: 44/56 Today's Picks: Knuckles and Ezio
#122 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/6/2013 1:30:20 PM | message detail
At best it makes fans go "Man, I miss Ezio. He was so cool." Nostalgia kicking in for a character created in 2009 yessir

Ezio's not going to be a near elite or anything, but 60% on Tails is a noticeable improvement over 60% on Simon Belmont.
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#123 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/6/2013 1:30:33 PM | message detail
You know,Bomberman is kind of a weird character
He is not super classic as Pacman but not really...relevant anymore
He is stuck between being a classic and being totally forgettable nowdays...the fact that new games are being released almost every year but no one cares for them doesn't help him
Without some kind of super popular game I don't see him...surviving in the next 5 years or something..as a franchise

So...GO MAKE BOMBERMAN TOURNAMENT 2!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4oFF-CrhRY0&list=PLAD4C220AF71CDE1A&index=6
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8vAz4fJGHq4&list=PLAD4C220AF71CDE1A&index=20
Hell yeah Bomberman Tournament music
#124 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/6/2013 1:31:45 PM | message detail
Eh, Bomberman's never really been a "classic" character. Bomberman games have done well in the past, but he's not really iconic outside of Japan, who apparently loves the little guy.
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#125 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/6/2013 1:32:22 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
FranzyvonKarma posted...
GameSpot did 3 contests.

One Gordon Freeman beat Mario in the finals because of rallying.
One Sarah Kerrigan won because of rallying in a contest where the finals likely could have been The Joker vs. Darth Vader were it not for rallying, iirc.
One Launchpad McQuack beat Albert Einstein in the final because 4chan rallied/stuffed to kill off everything with a speck of popularity early on.


what were the actual vote totals in the 3rd one (and the 2nd one, if you have them)


You can find the vote totals here:

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AgBWiYjlMLwYdFd1cGVuQ2xhaXhwT2dsQ3Z0TnB2R1E

The Villains Contest was the 2nd contest and the Sidekick Contest is the 3rd contest.
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#126 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/6/2013 1:34:15 PM | message detail
I do wonder how some old "classic" character would perform, something like Frogger or Ms. Pac-Man (without Mega Man)

Probably weak, but maybe they will be more than turbo fodder.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 44/56 Today's Picks: Knuckles and Ezio
#127 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/6/2013 1:36:10 PM | message detail
oh wow all the vote stuffing in gamespot contests
#128 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/6/2013 1:38:52 PM | message detail | (edited)
I really don't understand Kerrigan>Joker and Darth Vader
I considered Kerrigan to be my favorite video game villain before HotS came out and I would never take her over Joker
Unless this contest was before The Dark Knight or something but I doubt
#129 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/6/2013 1:40:15 PM | message detail
IIRC a popular Starcraft Youtube channel ran by HuskyStarcraft rallied for Kerrigan that contest.
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#130 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/6/2013 1:41:32 PM | message detail
Yeah, Starcraft got rallied there, makes the whole Missile > Kerrigan here even more funny since they have one of the largest pools to rally from.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 44/56 Today's Picks: Knuckles and Ezio
#131 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/6/2013 1:44:23 PM | message detail
Team Rocket Elite posted...
IIRC a popular Starcraft Youtube channel ran by HuskyStarcraft rallied for Kerrigan that contest.


Yes, he did. I remember because I have a friend who is a big Starcraft fan and he was trying to tell me how someone like Husky could get any Starcraft character to win these contests. Then I showed him the votals we get and he was floored (this was in 2010, I think).

That being said, does anyone else think that Banelings could have legit strength here?
#132 | ZFS | Posted 8/6/2013 1:44:56 PM | message detail
ExThaNemesis posted...
What the HELL is this year of Luigi crap that I keep seeing?!


http://sphotos-b.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-prn1/45569_434370293314096_838958551_n.jpg

the boost to get to round 3 is what it is
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#133 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/6/2013 1:46:55 PM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
Team Rocket Elite posted...
IIRC a popular Starcraft Youtube channel ran by HuskyStarcraft rallied for Kerrigan that contest.


Yes, he did. I remember because I have a friend who is a big Starcraft fan and he was trying to tell me how someone like Husky could get any Starcraft character to win these contests. Then I showed him the votals we get and he was floored (this was in 2010, I think).

That being said, does anyone else think that Banelings could have legit strength here?


Why Banelings and not Zerglings..?
#134 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/6/2013 1:51:13 PM | message detail
Zerglings would probably be the strongest Starcraft unit. Zealots would do relatively well too.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 44/56 Today's Picks: Knuckles and Ezio
#135 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/6/2013 1:54:24 PM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
Team Rocket Elite posted...
IIRC a popular Starcraft Youtube channel ran by HuskyStarcraft rallied for Kerrigan that contest.


Yes, he did. I remember because I have a friend who is a big Starcraft fan and he was trying to tell me how someone like Husky could get any Starcraft character to win these contests. Then I showed him the votals we get and he was floored (this was in 2010, I think).

That being said, does anyone else think that Banelings could have legit strength here?


Not only that contest, but also G4's Best Game of 2010 contest (StarCraft II won), and G4's Best Series Ever contest (StarCraft lost in the finals to Zelda).
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#136 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/6/2013 1:55:48 PM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
Then I showed him the votals we get and he was floored (this was in 2010, I think).


In the GameFAQs contests?
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#137 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/6/2013 1:57:30 PM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
TheOneAboveAll posted...
Team Rocket Elite posted...
IIRC a popular Starcraft Youtube channel ran by HuskyStarcraft rallied for Kerrigan that contest.


Yes, he did. I remember because I have a friend who is a big Starcraft fan and he was trying to tell me how someone like Husky could get any Starcraft character to win these contests. Then I showed him the votals we get and he was floored (this was in 2010, I think).

That being said, does anyone else think that Banelings could have legit strength here?


Why Banelings and not Zerglings..?


Because I had to pick one to say. Zerglings might get more traction with actual players, but Banelings has more internet memes. Zerglings could have decent strength too; I just think Banelings would be a bit stronger. They'd probably be relatively close though.
#138 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/6/2013 1:58:27 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
TheOneAboveAll posted...
Then I showed him the votals we get and he was floored (this was in 2010, I think).


In the GameFAQs contests?


Yeah. He realized that it's a lot easier for Husky to pull in 50,000 votes over the course of a week than a day.
#139 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/6/2013 1:58:58 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Zerglings would probably be the strongest Starcraft unit. Zealots would do relatively well too.


I wonder how well Carriers would do? Maybe it's past their time. Why do we keep getting Kerrigan in instead of general Starcraft units? I don't know if they would actually have any strength but Kerrigan isn't really a high mark to beat.
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#140 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/6/2013 1:59:58 PM | message detail
CJayC said carriers weren't eligible when we tried back in 2004.

Allen's a little more lax on this kinda stuff, but Ceej throwing down the banhammer on it probably stopped us from ever trying again. You could ask Allen and see if he'd let them in though.
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#141 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/6/2013 2:04:40 PM | message detail
I remember that.

No Starcraft Characters?

The Starcraft contingent couldn't decide on a character to nominate, and no, "Mass Carriers" is not a character. Besides, how many people actually ever talk about the characters in the game?


Also, he was right. No one really cares about the characters in the game. I'm not really sure if it's worth bothering SBAllen with this if the characters might not be anything more than fodder.
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#142 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/6/2013 2:14:32 PM | message detail
On the other hand, maybe if we asked real nicely we could get a Mass Carriers vs. Sarah Kerrigan match.
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#143 | xp1337 | Posted 8/6/2013 2:16:54 PM | message detail | (edited)
*Shows up*

curse you alphabetical order

Probably going to have to pick right on Yuna/Chief to get on the expert leaderboard now. Unless I talk myself into taking Teemo and that turns out right, but I'm doubting that at the moment.
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#144 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/6/2013 2:29:58 PM | message detail
Knowing what we know now about the power and extent of rallying and bandwagons, I would have loved to see the FFVII vs. Starcraft match back in 2004. It would have been on a Saturday night, the busiest time on Battle.net, 2 days after SC came back from 3800 down against SSBM and 7 days after SC came back from 2000 down against WW. And 3 days after FFVII knocked out OOT from the tourney, when the phrase "FFVII Always Wins" actually held some truth.

Starcraft would have likely started the match by burying FFVII with the early vote (it's always been very strong with the immediate start of a match). Then FFVII starts going within an hour or so (4 AM) and rolls for the next 16 hours. Then we'd see what magic Starcraft and rallying could work in the last 7 hours.
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#145 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/6/2013 2:38:52 PM | message detail
I would vote for a Carrier's Interceptor over Kerrigan tbqh
#146 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/6/2013 2:41:06 PM | message detail
...I said Ezio, not Tails. Now I need Tails to go up.
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#147 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/6/2013 2:46:18 PM | message detail
superange128 posted...
kinsho3 posted...
I truly hope that the LoL characters here die in the worst way in their next matches.


Have you played League of Legends?


Nope. Still wish nothing but the worst for them.
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#148 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/6/2013 2:54:05 PM | message detail
superange128 posted...
kinsho3 posted...
I truly hope that the LoL characters here die in the worst way in their next matches.


Have you played League of Legends?


I have an account that's level 30 and promptly stopped playing LoL when I got my beta key for the far superior Dota 2. I always found LoL lacking (coming from 5 years of Dota 1) and now that I'm on the other side of the fence again, I wish nothing but harm on Riot, LoL fanboys and the craptastic hero pool that game perpetuates.
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#149 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/6/2013 3:07:49 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
You can find the vote totals here:

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AgBWiYjlMLwYdFd1cGVuQ2xhaXhwT2dsQ3Z0TnB2R1E

The Villains Contest was the 2nd contest and the Sidekick Contest is the 3rd contest.


And now I finally completed the vote totals and results for the Heroes Contest.
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#150 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/6/2013 3:08:52 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Also, I'm assuming KH was being a bit facetious with his Ezio comparisons, but the dude's had two games and a game that didn't feature him but people hated the new main character so much that he couldn't even make the contest since 2010 (what a sentence). No way he's not noticeably stronger now.


Oh, no doubt. Charizard still really can't drop that match to Zelda in my mind. But as for Charizard's standing...

...would you take Ezio Auditore da Firenze to get 53% on Sora in a night match right now, as extrapolating through Tails would suggest?
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