Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1096

#51 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/6/2013 11:10:37 AM | message detail
All depends if Teemo gets rallied, which I guess is likely.

Because man Draven was bad before the rallying kicked in.
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#52 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/6/2013 11:11:11 AM | message detail
Also % against whoever doesn't matter for Draven. It's all about raw votes.

It's why L-Block did so well before it exploded in the semis in 2007, and why Draven is going to coast against X/Ryu.
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#53 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/6/2013 11:12:24 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Teemo can win... but LoL characters are weak without rallying here, and L Block is a whole different animal from Jak, who Draven only scored 55% on in the end.


Wait
So Draven scored only 55%..on Jak? after that so-called scary rally?
This puts him at the same level as 2004 Ness
So much for our glorious Link-killer (and no,next rally won't be that much bigger)
#54 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/6/2013 11:12:50 AM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
Also % against whoever doesn't matter for Draven. It's all about raw votes.

It's why L-Block did so well before it exploded in the semis in 2007, and why Draven is going to coast against X/Ryu.


This isn't true. If we had the same system in 2007 as we have this year L Block would have lost in Round 1, 2, and 3.
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#55 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/6/2013 11:14:33 AM | message detail
That reason being Bomberman hasn't seen the light of day since 2007, yes, I know. Is there ANY character that has ever missed 2-3 contests only to end up stronger than before? Oh, yeah, Celes Chere is one example, but we all saw the big jump for old-school Final Fantasy.

I think it is more due to Bomberman not having any games outside of XboxLive/PSN/WiiShop


Sometimes it feels like characters gain strength in contests just by virtue of being IN the contests consistently.... I guess there's some logic to that.

I agree, I have voted for characters in matches where I have not played any of their games based on their previous appearances in contests. Not sure how much that helps though.
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#56 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/6/2013 11:14:45 AM | message detail
They stopped rallying when Draven was safely ahead. Draven's ability to take out Link is based on what the rally is projected to do if done for 24 hours. We have no idea if the projection will hold or not until it actually happens.
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#57 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/6/2013 11:16:02 AM | message detail
Team Rocket Elite posted...
They stopped rallying when Draven was safely ahead. Draven's ability to take out Link is based on what the rally is projected to do if done for 24 hours. We have no idea if the projection will hold or not until it actually happens.


Yeah, now this is true. Draven's chances of winning the contest are nonzero based on his first round match, anyway.
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#58 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/6/2013 11:17:15 AM | message detail
While yes, it's not technically the same, the basic concept is true. So long as L-Block held onto its 28%, it would always advance. If Draven holds onto 16k votes against Ryu and X, he advances easily, especially since that 16k was with no rallying for what, a third of the match?
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#59 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/6/2013 11:17:28 AM | message detail
Rallies don't care about strength of the opponent, if LoL is rabid enough to only ever vote Draven/Teemo then they just need to outvote GameFAQs.

For example L-Block stayed at around 28-30% before getting heavily rallied despite the opponents getting stronger.
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#60 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/6/2013 11:23:26 AM | message detail | (edited)
The problem comes is for an LoL fan it's real easy to vote Draven over Jak. Not many people care about Jak. Link, though? If any significantly higher proportion of rallied voters end up voting for Link instead of Draven that's going to send him tumbling back to earth. X/Ryu are more realistic because they'll be cannibalizing each other to an extent, but there's a similar principle there too. Strength matters as well, that's why we have this topic!

Edit: I kinda hope he gets to Link though so we can see external backlash properly directed against him <_<
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#61 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/6/2013 11:21:38 AM | message detail
That also makes Ryu/X a good match up for Draven since "GameFAQs voter LFF" will hurt both Ryu and X. Draven would have a harder time if one character rolled over and died to let the other fight Draven head-on.
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#62 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/6/2013 11:25:37 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
The problem comes is for an LoL fan it's real easy to vote Draven over Jak. Not many people care about Jak. Link, though? If any significantly higher proportion of rallied voters end up voting for Link instead of Draven that's going to send him tumbling back to earth. X/Ryu are more realistic because they'll be cannibalizing each other to an extent, but there's a similar principle there too. Strength matters as well, that's why we have this topic!

Edit: I kinda hope he gets to Link though so we can see external backlash properly directed against him <_<


How are you going to feel when Snake is at sub-10% against Teemo and Draven?
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#63 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/6/2013 11:27:47 AM | message detail
I have been following those contests ever since 2003,and this is the first time I want to do some kind of debt or god knows what just because of how sure I am that Draven will not even come close to X and Ryu
He will be so patheticly weak that this topic will flood with "oh,here goes the Link-killer.." comments
Maybe that's how Black Turtle feels everytime...this feeling that "WHY DON'T THEY SEE ITS SO OBVIOUS THAT DRAVEN WON'T WIN WHY ARE THEY SO BLIND"
#64 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/6/2013 11:28:00 AM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
The problem comes is for an LoL fan it's real easy to vote Draven over Jak. Not many people care about Jak. Link, though? If any significantly higher proportion of rallied voters end up voting for Link instead of Draven that's going to send him tumbling back to earth. X/Ryu are more realistic because they'll be cannibalizing each other to an extent, but there's a similar principle there too. Strength matters as well, that's why we have this topic!

Edit: I kinda hope he gets to Link though so we can see external backlash properly directed against him <_<


How are you going to feel when Snake is at sub-10% against Teemo and Draven?


If you think there's any final I consider more favorable to Snake you're underestimating LoL's propensity for self-destruction in that kind of a setup!
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#65 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/6/2013 11:29:00 AM | message detail
Sorry I didn't make my joking obvious enough.

Uh uh uh Whatcha gonna do, brother, when in the finals, there's sub-10% for Blue?
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#66 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/6/2013 11:29:30 AM | message detail
Not sure if it's been brought up, but during the Jak match, a small handful of Board 8ers rallied for Draven on reddit and other places. I doubt Teemo gets any Board 8 rallies because no one has him in their bracket.
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#67 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/6/2013 11:29:33 AM | message detail
When Valve rallied for Gordon Freeman on Steam for the GameSpot contest, the rallied votes when roughly 90-10 for Freeman. I wouldn't really count on the LoL rallied votes changing much as the opponents get stronger. If anything, they'll increase with each win. Mario might be the only exception to this and Draven would have to make the finals for Mario to step in.
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#68 | SnowZangoose | Posted 8/6/2013 11:30:38 AM | message detail
The best thing about Draven winning the contest would be Chie being overrated as hell in the x-stats.
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#69 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/6/2013 11:31:16 AM | message detail
Valve rallied Gordon..?
So why don't they care about Gamefaqs contests then?
#70 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/6/2013 11:31:32 AM | message detail
I wasn't joking, I consider Draven and even Teemo making the finals as being nonzero chances (now, a number very close to zero...). And I'd welcome it! Snake's united power and backlash against a 2/3rd LoL final would power him to a level of something, like, 70.00 on BL against them.
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#71 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/6/2013 11:31:50 AM | message detail
watch a giant Link rally completely obliterate Draven's rally and then triple Snake in the finals
KH am cry
#72 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/6/2013 11:32:13 AM | message detail
SnowZangoose posted...
The best thing about Draven winning the contest would be Chie being overrated as hell in the x-stats.


Imagine if Draven only gained momentum from here and Jak ended up #2 in the x-stats.
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#73 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/6/2013 11:32:39 AM | message detail
Draven/Snake/Teemo is the absolute best situation for Snake in the finals. Maybe I haven't thought of this very clearly, but it's damn near impossible for him to lose.
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#74 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/6/2013 11:33:43 AM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Draven/Snake/Teemo is the absolute best situation for Snake in the finals. Maybe I haven't thought of this very clearly, but it's damn near impossible for him to lose.


Draven will SFF Teemo worse than every other SFF in the history of Gamefaqs
#75 | SnowZangoose | Posted 8/6/2013 11:34:17 AM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Draven/Snake/Teemo is the absolute best situation for Snake in the finals. Maybe I haven't thought of this very clearly, but it's damn near impossible for him to lose.


Wouldn't Draven SFF Teemo to the ground? I think it'd get pretty ugly.
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#76 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/6/2013 11:34:48 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Valve rallied Gordon..?
So why don't they care about Gamefaqs contests then?


GameSpot is a bigger site than GameFAQs and was actively trying to get companies to participate in their contest.
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#77 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/6/2013 11:36:01 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Draven/Snake/Teemo is the absolute best situation for Snake in the finals. Maybe I haven't thought of this very clearly, but it's damn near impossible for him to lose.


Draven will SFF Teemo worse than every other SFF in the history of Gamefaqs


The fact that he'll have to SFF him at all will mean Draven would be utterly crippled against a Snake who would be far more powerful than anything he'd faced beforehand. The mere fact that it would be Snake standing alone in a Finals of LoL would boost him to levels unheard of.
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#78 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/6/2013 11:38:05 AM | message detail
If Draven/Snake/Teemo happened I'd take Snake to finish last. There's no way the LoL rallying would reach that point and THEN falter.
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#79 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/6/2013 11:38:57 AM | message detail
LoL seems so lame. The guy whose meme is WELCOME TO THE LEAGUE OF DRAVEN would SFF another LoL character into the ground? How f***ing lame must Teemo be?
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#80 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/6/2013 11:39:30 AM | message detail
Team Rocket Elite posted...
Nanis23 posted...
Valve rallied Gordon..?
So why don't they care about Gamefaqs contests then?


GameSpot is a bigger site than GameFAQs and was actively trying to get companies to participate in their contest.


that's pretty stupid really....
#81 | ZinsanityCraze | Posted 8/6/2013 11:40:11 AM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
If Draven/Snake/Teemo happened I'd take Snake to finish last. There's no way the LoL rallying would reach that point and THEN falter.


With comments like this, i feel ashamed to be a lol fan sometimes. You gonna rally for 20,000 votes for both sides in a 24 hours poll for that to happen.
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#82 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/6/2013 11:41:15 AM | message detail
if Snake faces two LoL characters, rally on Nintendo, Microsoft, AND Sony forums for Snake
guarantee you all 3 will give 90%+ to Snake
#83 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/6/2013 11:41:25 AM | message detail
It's all about matchups. If LoL makes the finals, it's doing so mainly on the power of 'GameFAQs Characters' fanbase splitting... right up until the final match, when GameFAQs is finally united behind one non LoL option and the two cannibalize each other (and under no circumstances would Draven be able to heavily SFF a Teemo that's powerful enough to make the finals anyway). Draven and Teemo would be heavy, heavy dogs to Snake. Cloud, too, or anyone else that can make that kind of a final - I'm not playing favorites.
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#84 | LOLContests | Posted 8/6/2013 11:45:22 AM | message detail | (edited)
I have doubts about rallied votes getting weaker because the people being rallied like the opponents better. People aren't going to analyze the situation that much. If told to go somewhere and vote for a certain character they're going to do so. They're not going to look at the poll and try to figure out if they like the other character better. They aren't going to be "disloyal."

Edit: I wouldn't say that L-Block had a static 28-30% in 2007 either. He was legitimately increasing in momentum/popularity each round. Also don't forget that the R1/R2 pics of it were widely regarded as being bad and not helping out the joke as much as they could. R1 in particular? M-Rated Tetris anyone?
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#85 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/6/2013 11:42:21 AM | message detail
How could Snake finish last? Between his natural GameFAQs strength (which would be hypercharged by the silly final match he'd have to deal with) and all the anti-LoL rallies that would solely benefit him, we're looking at a potential 100,000 votes for Snake before he even begins to see returns from the LoL rallied voters who vote for Snake instead.

This isn't Chester or Luke fon Fabre. It's Solid Snake. If LoL rallies a MILLION voters, a good chunk of them would go to Snake.
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#86 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/6/2013 11:43:07 AM | message detail
Team Rocket Elite posted...
Nanis23 posted...
Valve rallied Gordon..?
So why don't they care about Gamefaqs contests then?


GameSpot is a bigger site than GameFAQs and was actively trying to get companies to participate in their contest.


Whelp..200k votes for the finals...
Was this the only contest Gamespot did?(Mario vs Gordon finals)
I'm pretty sure that not because I remember Einstein in one of them
#87 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/6/2013 11:44:50 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Team Rocket Elite posted...
Nanis23 posted...
Valve rallied Gordon..?
So why don't they care about Gamefaqs contests then?


GameSpot is a bigger site than GameFAQs and was actively trying to get companies to participate in their contest.


Whelp..200k votes for the finals...
Was this the only contest Gamespot did?(Mario vs Gordon finals)
I'm pretty sure that not because I remember Einstein in one of them


wasn't the 200k votes over like a week though?
which makes it even worse than this contest, averaged per day
#88 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/6/2013 11:46:12 AM | message detail
Clearly the only way we're going to settle this is by bringing the Draven/Snake/Teemo finals to fruition, make it happen people
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#89 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/6/2013 11:47:04 AM | message detail
http://www.gamespot.com/greatest-video-game-sidekick/standings/index.html
This is joke
L-Block winning the character battle here is far better than this
#90 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/6/2013 11:47:12 AM | message detail
GameSpot did 3 contests.

One Gordon Freeman beat Mario in the finals because of rallying.
One Sarah Kerrigan won because of rallying in a contest where the finals likely could have been The Joker vs. Darth Vader were it not for rallying, iirc.
One Launchpad McQuack beat Albert Einstein in the final because 4chan rallied/stuffed to kill off everything with a speck of popularity early on.
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#91 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/6/2013 11:47:32 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Clearly the only way we're going to settle this is by bringing the Draven/Snake/Teemo finals to fruition, make it happen people


either Draven wins by SFFing Teemo into the ground (which puts Snake in 2nd), or Snake wins because the LoL fanbase splits
I don't see why people are trying to take both sides of the argument here
#92 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/6/2013 11:48:01 AM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
Nanis23 posted...
Team Rocket Elite posted...
Nanis23 posted...
Valve rallied Gordon..?
So why don't they care about Gamefaqs contests then?


GameSpot is a bigger site than GameFAQs and was actively trying to get companies to participate in their contest.


Whelp..200k votes for the finals...
Was this the only contest Gamespot did?(Mario vs Gordon finals)
I'm pretty sure that not because I remember Einstein in one of them


wasn't the 200k votes over like a week though?
which makes it even worse than this contest, averaged per day


Yeah,you are right
This is really low then..
#93 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/6/2013 11:49:49 AM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
GameSpot did 3 contests.

One Gordon Freeman beat Mario in the finals because of rallying.
One Sarah Kerrigan won because of rallying in a contest where the finals likely could have been The Joker vs. Darth Vader were it not for rallying, iirc.
One Launchpad McQuack beat Albert Einstein in the final because 4chan rallied/stuffed to kill off everything with a speck of popularity early on.


Why did they switch to McQuack
They pretty much rallied Einstein the whole way just to feed him to the ducks?
And lol at Kerrigan winning a character battle..wonder how would she do now post-HotS
#94 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/6/2013 11:49:52 AM | message detail
Using Draven's lowest percentage against Jak (32.34%) I was able to calculate the rallied votes for each hour...

3am - 182
4am - 961
5am - 1418
6am - 1520
7am - 1193
8am - 1043
9am - 993
10am - 838
11am - 848
12pm - 839

Using the maximum hour Draven could rally 18240 votes over 12 hours, that already puts him above most winners even if GameFAQs gives him 0 votes and the ones he did not beat had weak fodder which are no longer in this contest.

Things to note
- Draven was still dropping in percentage against Jak so he may have been slightly more rallied
- LoL fans may not be rabid and may actually vote for stronger characters because they like them, therefore more rallying is needed
- LoL may not be able to keep up that level of rallying for 12 hours straight (on the other hand they could rally even harder)
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#95 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/6/2013 11:50:34 AM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
GameSpot did 3 contests.

One Gordon Freeman beat Mario in the finals because of rallying.
One Sarah Kerrigan won because of rallying in a contest where the finals likely could have been The Joker vs. Darth Vader were it not for rallying, iirc.
One Launchpad McQuack beat Albert Einstein in the final because 4chan rallied/stuffed to kill off everything with a speck of popularity early on.


what were the actual vote totals in the 3rd one (and the 2nd one, if you have them)
#96 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/6/2013 11:51:51 AM | message detail
I see nothing wrong with a contest won by Launchpad McQuack!
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#97 | LOLContests | Posted 8/6/2013 11:53:46 AM | message detail
Isn't the average age of 4chan like 19? How did they even know who Launchpad McQuack was?
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#98 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/6/2013 11:57:56 AM | message detail | (edited)
1337gamerpr0 posted...
FranzyvonKarma posted...
GameSpot did 3 contests.

One Gordon Freeman beat Mario in the finals because of rallying.
One Sarah Kerrigan won because of rallying in a contest where the finals likely could have been The Joker vs. Darth Vader were it not for rallying, iirc.
One Launchpad McQuack beat Albert Einstein in the final because 4chan rallied/stuffed to kill off everything with a speck of popularity early on.


what were the actual vote totals in the 3rd one (and the 2nd one, if you have them)


http://www.gamespot.com/greatest-video-game-villain/vote/battle-hub/index.html?battle_id=63
252459 over a week

http://www.gamespot.com/greatest-video-game-sidekick/vote/battle-hub/index.html?battle_id=63
31752 over 4 days

lol at Sephiroth losing first round to General Raam
#99 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/6/2013 12:00:22 PM | message detail
Actually L-Block/Teemo would be a good way to measure LoL's rally potential.

Assuming L-Block beats Palutena by about as much as Freeman did to Hades and Teemo was about as strong as Palutena that is going to require a near-maximum rally that I calculated from Draven in order to win.
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#100 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/6/2013 12:01:33 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
How could Snake finish last? Between his natural GameFAQs strength (which would be hypercharged by the silly final match he'd have to deal with) and all the anti-LoL rallies that would solely benefit him, we're looking at a potential 100,000 votes for Snake before he even begins to see returns from the LoL rallied voters who vote for Snake instead.

This isn't Chester or Luke fon Fabre. It's Solid Snake. If LoL rallies a MILLION voters, a good chunk of them would go to Snake.


No. If your logic held true, Draven would have lost to Link first. Unless you think that there is significantly more LoL/Snake overlap than LoL/Link, which seems unlikely. When you're talking numbers in the millions, you're pretty much hitting a large enough sample of the whole gaming populations. If Snake could take that many votes from Draven there, then Snake would have enough natural strength to beat Link. I don't buy it.