GameFAQs Contests

creativename posted...

Karma Hunter posted...

I actually worked it out a little differently. Set Samus 2004 = Samus 2006 and Squall 2006 = Squall 2010. Squall 2010 is worth 36.35% on Link 2010. Squall 2006 is worth 39.77% on Samus 2006. Samus 2004 is worth 42.36 on BL.

If I did my math right, that means Link 2010 should be worth 46.34% on BL. That sounds about right to me.

Well those Samus 42.36% on BL stats are suspect - they come from setting Link 2k4 to being worth 53.38% on BL, which doesn't make any sense. Link had no reason to boost from 2k3 to 2k4. I think those stats are based on Cloud 2k4=Cloud 2k3, which doesn't make any sense because Cloud did much worse against Samus in 2K4 than he would have done in 2K3. Pretty clear that Cloud dropped in 2k4.

You can't compare one year to another based on the stats at Ngamer's site, because they suffer greatly from x-stat inflation. The number you come up with there is a decent estimate, but the methodology is based on inaccurate data. There's just no way Link 2k4 was worth 53.38% on Link 2k2.

Karma Hunter posted...

Celes has cut Knuckles, too. Not bad for someone who's being held back like crazy and was supposed to come in 3rd.

I don't think Seifer is really holding her back much, if at all. But yes this is a great show by Celes, who I absolutely adore - Opera Scene is one of the greatest game scenes of all time. Possibly #1 cutscene ever.

Celes showing strength is one of the coolest results so far :) SNESFAQs! SNES=greatest console ever btw.

Fayt_Esteed posted...

That is a possibility. But Ness is weak and not exactly someone I'd expect to SFF anyone. I think Locke just might be that weak.

Yeah, Locke is probably just that weak. In general main characters don't seem to drop in strength over time as much as supporting characters (for example Crono). And the main characters in FF6 are Terra/Kefka/Celes, depending on your definition. Locke is among the most important supporting characters, but he isn't a main by any definition.

It's why I think back in the day Shadow would have been very strong, but he isn't a main character so I think he'd be fodder now. High end fodder, but still probably fodder.

Celes doing this proves that 2006 was screwed up. As to Shadow, I dunno... He only gets like 4 stints of playtime in the first half of the game IIRC. That can't help his case.
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Karma Hunter posted...

Eh, Link pretty clearly boosted in 2004 on Twilight Princess trailer hype. The buzz for it was deafening. Samus is also obscured in 2k3 because of Link/Samus SFF - getting the Metroid Prime games helped her out immensely. Just check the difference in her performances on Sonic.

Edit: And if you wanna peg Link 2k4 = BL (which is an estimate we can all agree he's probably not *worse* than), Link 2010's worth 43.21% on BL. Possible, but that's much too weak even for me.

Hmm, you're right about Link/Samus. Though there's no way that jump on her Sonic performance is all her - a ton of that is Sonic already starting his drop.

There's no way to compare those years without some major flaw. You can also use Crono, though Crono may have boosted a bit (and/or Mario dropped - who knows which?). But there's just no way 2k4 Link stomps 2k2 Link like that. And the numbers of Link compared to the rest of the field just get totally unbelievable if you adjust everyone based on Link 2k4 being worth that much on Link 2k2.

Anyway, here's the stats and you can see how absurd they get:

thengamer.com/xstats/ranks.php?name=Link

Link 2k7 worth 59.90% on Link 2k2?!? There is clearly no quantitive basis for that - it's just inflation, where you keep saying guys that Link beats have never dropped.
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The 2003/2004 and 2004/2005 comparative stats were all your creation, creative, if I remember right. And I think the 2003/2004 numbers, at least, were spot on. Link destroyed everyone in 2004, whereas he never appeared as dominant in 2003.

I don't think Crono stayed constant from 2004 to 2005- think he dropped that year.
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your 7 time champion, Link.

creativename posted...

Karma Hunter posted...

Eh, Link pretty clearly boosted in 2004 on Twilight Princess trailer hype. The buzz for it was deafening. Samus is also obscured in 2k3 because of Link/Samus SFF - getting the Metroid Prime games helped her out immensely. Just check the difference in her performances on Sonic.

Edit: And if you wanna peg Link 2k4 = BL (which is an estimate we can all agree he's probably not *worse* than), Link 2010's worth 43.21% on BL. Possible, but that's much too weak even for me.

Hmm, you're right about Link/Samus. Though there's no way that jump on her Sonic performance is all her - a ton of that is Sonic already starting his drop.

There's no way to compare those years without some major flaw. You can also use Crono, though Crono may have boosted a bit (and/or Mario dropped - who knows which?). But there's just no way 2k4 Link stomps 2k2 Link like that. And the numbers of Link compared to the rest of the field just get totally unbelievable if you adjust everyone based on Link 2k4 being worth that much on Link 2k2.

Anyway, here's the stats and you can see how absurd they get:

thengamer.com/xstats/ranks.php?name=Link

Link 2k7 worth 59.90% on Link 2k2?!? There is clearly no quantitive basis for that - it's just inflation, where you keep saying guys that Link beats have never dropped.

Oh yeah, no doubt, but fourway stats are pretty borked and year to year comparisons are tough enough as it is, so I don't begrudge it too much.

That being said, I think the Link 2004 comparison is close to reality, personally. Link looked ridiculously dominating in 2004 right from the starting match with CATS. Keep in mind that with Samus that we've got another opponent to compare her to - Ryu, who Sonic beat in 2004 and who she went from scoring 57.85% in 2002 to being projected for 62.23% based on her match with Sonic.

...honestly Ryu is probably a great person to use from year to year. 2005 aside, hasn't his nickname been Mr. Consistency?
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Link/Samus SFF happened, yes.

I'm not sure what NGamer's site has after 2005 (I think there's nothing beyond 2005 on sc2k5/gamefaqscontests), but personally my working model the past few years has been a constant Link from 2004 to 2008. Link 2004-2008 > Link 2003 > Link 2010. I don't know where Link 2002 fits into the picture, but the last 2 weeks of that contest were as wonky as anything we've seen except L-Block. Cloud got more votes in the Mario match than any previous winner of a contest poll, including the Noble Niners who were getting 90%+.....and he lost.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.

I feel like people will start taking a Link drop more seriously when he deals with quantities we have more of a read on... all that SFF obscured things quite a bit last time around, which really only left us with Alucard and Cloud to judge him by.

It would be hilarious if Raiden was the one to do that next round by taking a bite out of him, but I don't know if he's the character to do that.
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After next round, you'll be able to use the x-stats to prove that Snake would double Link.
---
Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.

Fayt_Esteed posted...

Celes doing this proves that 2006 was screwed up. As to Shadow, I dunno... He only gets like 4 stints of playtime in the first half of the game IIRC. That can't help his case.

The playtime thing doesn't really matter, Shadow was definitely considered the "cool" character (even moreso than Edgar, though I think Edgar has held up better over time). If you were around back then you know that back then he was expected by pretty much everybody to be stronger than Terra/Celes, they suffered from ensemble cast syndrome and weren't fan favorites (at the time).

At the time all the debate about strongest character was between Kefka and Shadow - Shadow was almost surely the strongest PC back in the day. Whether he was stronger than Kefka, we'll never know, but at the time I was pretty confident that he'd be stronger than Kefka. But he wasn't one of the mains, so he won't have aged well.

red sox 777 posted...

The 2003/2004 and 2004/2005 comparative stats were all your creation, creative, if I remember right. And I think the 2003/2004 numbers, at least, were spot on. Link destroyed everyone in 2004, whereas he never appeared as dominant in 2003.

I don't think Crono stayed constant from 2004 to 2005- think he dropped that year.

Were they? I don't remember this at all >_> I definitely didn't come up with those later year numbers though, those get silly.

I can buy TP hype boosting him maybe a point or two from 2k2 Link...but over 3 points? Even if I came up with such a number back, knowing more about contests now, I would definitely not agree with a 3.38 point boost. Also we now know that FF7 and it's cast were doing a slow decline, something we wouldn't have actually known in 2k4. So your best guess in 2k4 might be one thing, but in retrospect, setting Cloud 2k4=Cloud 2k3 doesn't make sense and that's what the numbers seem to be based on.

Karma Hunter posted...

It would be hilarious if Raiden was the one to do that next round by taking a bite out of him, but I don't know if he's the character to do that.

Yeah, I don't know if Raiden and Yoshi are really the guys to take advantage and make Link look bad. Though SFF in this format is usually exaggerated, and Yoshi will probably resist SFF better than he did in their old 1v1, so I guess maybe that could make Link look bad?
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man, this talk about Link weakening reminded me that he would've 65/35ed Mario before SFF in 2004. I guess Mario got stronger (if 2005 is any indication), but still.

Link's whole 2010 performance is weird though. hopefully this contest will shed some light on how vulnerable he's become.
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red sox 777 posted...

After next round, you'll be able to use the x-stats to prove that Snake would double Link.

...yessssssssssss Snake/Raiden 2003
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red sox 777 posted...

After next round, you'll be able to use the x-stats to prove that Snake would double Link.

I don't know about double, but I wouldn't be surprised if Snake was 60/40ing Link at the freeze (well, if it's an early freeze it could be a doubling).

Link is definitely going to pull a rise-to-heaven in that match...Snake should at least win the first two hours of the match. And overnight he might remain strong enough to win those hours. But the day vote will not be good for him.

Once those kiddies wake up though...!! (wow, this really is 2k2 all over again)

Still, with Snake winning early, the match should at least be in doubt early on. So it probably won't be a gimme where we can call it early for Link.
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Here's your explanation of the 2k4 stats. Looks like they're based on a least squares regression.

And I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around this idea of Link trailing in a match. But yeah, if Mario is there and it is Snake.......I guess that's right. Those would be the trends.....
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.

Karma Hunter posted...

red sox 777 posted...

After next round, you'll be able to use the x-stats to prove that Snake would double Link.

...yessssssssssss Snake/Raiden 2003

x-stats - the gift that keeps on giving.

Snake>Pikachu final confirmed.
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http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1329

if Link can't do better than this he's weaker than Snake 2k3 no excuses
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red sox 777 posted...

Here's your explanation of the 2k4 stats. Looks like they're based on a least squares regression.

Hmm, wow, I really don't remember this at all. But yeah, retroactively speaking, that's not the best methodology there. Not enough data. And while constant Cloud might have made sense at the time, that analysis is dated even before the 2k5 contest - with years of retrospect Cloud dropping, or a combination of Link rise/Cloud drop, makes much more sense. And the 2005-2008 numbers for Link, I don't know what they're based on, but I think everyone can agree those numbers are extremely not accurate.

But anyway, the thing that matters is that 2013 Link is clearly weaker than 2k2 Link by at least 3 points. And against fodder his non-linearity would make that even worse. Plus Link is going to be hurt by 12 hour matches night matches (not sure if 24 hour Link would be better or worse than 12 hour day match Link).

Link's full power won't be unleashed until the 24 hour rounds, and when he faces stronger opponents.
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Lost in that discussion is that Knuckles absolutely got eviscerated overnight. Removing Seifer and giving 60% of his votes to Celes and 40% to Knuckles (and really... that seems tame to me), Celes is now at 44% on Knux.
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Karma Hunter posted...

Lost in that discussion is that Knuckles absolutely got eviscerated overnight. Removing Seifer and giving 60% of his votes to Celes and 40% to Knuckles (and really... that seems tame to me), Celes is now at 44% on Knux.

Even more interesting, Celes has stayed put all night, not going over 31% or under 30%. Pretty much everything Knux is losing is going to Seifer. Not that it will help.
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-LusterSoldier- posted...

creativename posted...

Being serious, Snake's problem is that Link will siphon off his Nintendo fanbase, which means Snake is suffering from a handicap that will likely cancel out the presence of Mario.

I have yet to see a case of Snake being SFFed by Link, Mario, or Samus because of his appearance in Brawl. At least 95% of Snake's strength is going to come from his own fanbase. It's also been over 5 years since Brawl came out, so I can't imagine too many voters actually voting for Snake because he was in Brawl (without playing a Metal Gear game). There are very few matches with Snake in a match against a Nintendo Noble Niner, so we haven't seen Snake getting SFFed yet.

2006 - Samus beat Snake pretty easily, but I don't see anything fishy in that match. I think Samus was legitimately stronger than Snake that year. Snake did not appear to be SFFed in any of his Battle Royale matches, either.

2007 - Snake never ran into any of the Nintendo Noble Niners until Link in the finals, and that match is unreliable because Snake was LPF'd into the ground.

2008 - Due to Snake's bandwagon against Link, it's impossible to determine if there was any SFF from Link.

2010 - Never faced off against any Nintendo Noble Niners.

Yes please. Snake drawing a significant portion of his strength from Brawl is one of the biggest misconceptions I've read consistently here. Snake's strength is 95% MGS. He'll also be taking home the title this year! MGS fans represent. Believe.
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I was working all through Catherine's match. Glad I picked her.

What happened in the first few hours when it was really close? Rallying, or something else?
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No one is disputing that 95% of Snake's strength comes from Metal Gear Solid. I think that's pretty obvious.

However, that 5% is still important when you are talking things like overtaking Cloud, and especially beating Link in the finals.
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Seifer winning his first update here?
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_SecretSquirrel posted...

No one is disputing that 95% of Snake's strength comes from Metal Gear Solid. I think that's pretty obvious.

However, that 5% is still important when you are talking things like overtaking Cloud, and especially beating Link in the finals.

I'm pretty sure Snake is genuinely more popular than Cloud at this point. If Mario/Charizard is with Link in the finals, he's got a great shot.
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_SecretSquirrel posted...

No one is disputing that 95% of Snake's strength comes from Metal Gear Solid. I think that's pretty obvious.

However, that 5% is still important when you are talking things like overtaking Cloud, and especially beating Link in the finals.

Eh, it's incidental if you've got Mario in the mix. Mario hurts Link way more than he or Link will hurt Snake.
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Oh hey, yeah. Seifer just won an update against Celes and Knuckles outright. Might not look so bad for him by the end of all this.
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Ha, Seifer might win this hour against Celes. They've tied the first 55 mintues of it.

(that or he already lost it by 15 votes - this three-minute freeze is screwing with me)
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FFDragon posted...

Zell came in a clear second in the favorite ff8 character poll.

That poll is ten years old, man.

I still think Zell would be decent, but Laguna being in Dissidia would put him in the clear for second strongest at this point.
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Karma Hunter posted...

...Missingno's not the favorite?

Surprisingly, no.

I have literally never been more scared of a match in my life, so I assumed Board 8 would naturally jump all over Missingno. Not sure why that didn't happen. I guess people thought Missingno would be a one year wonder.

But yeah, I'm not totally surprised Seifer bombed here. I argued hard for people supporting Laguna instead BOTH times Seifer got NRT support, but no, why listen to the FFVIII fan who probably understands who the fanbase likes more than the rest of the board does, right?
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-LusterSoldier- posted...

Leon hasn't posted in this topic since the match started. I think he's embarrassed that Seifer is doing so badly.

I work nights. I would've been in here the whole time if I didn't have to work.

As I mentioned the other day, I had a feeling this would happen.

I'm not one to "run and hide" when characters I support don't do well.

Heck, Knuckles is my favorite character in this poll. I just voted for Seifer because I knew I could just vote for Knux next round.

spooky96 posted...

superange128 posted...

creativename posted...

-LusterSoldier- posted...

Leon hasn't posted in this topic since the match started. I think he's embarrassed that Seifer is doing so badly.

Do we even know if he actually likes Seifer?

if he's not vocal about things he dislikes (like Pokemon) I'd say it's safe to assume he likes something or is at least neutral

He said he likes Squirtle in one of the "Do you like this character?" topic.

It's okay. Angelo doesn't like people having strong opinions about things, so he holds it against me, for some reason.

(Especially considering I'm a lot more vocal about what I do like than what I don't. You won't even hear me talking about Pokemon unless it's in the context of a contest match most of the time)
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ExThaNemesis posted...

I honestly feel bad for Leon during this contest. Not only has FF8 been abysmal, but he's likely going to have to watch both Tidus AND Squall (his 1 and 2) lose to a glitch joke.

I wouldn't wish that on anyone, even him!

Like I said, I saw it coming!

Lopen hit the nail on the head earlier. Squall 2002 was weaker than Knuckles. No way Seifer had any chance here, even with a weaker Knux than 2002! The only reason I'd support Laguna at this point is because of Dissidia.
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"

So i finally finished reading all the posts ever since I went to sleep
Took me like..2 hours of just reading
Pretty active "night' I see

Anyway im happy that Seifier is losing here
He is a trash character from a bad game
He remindse of Sasuke and we all know that people that like Sasuke are weird

And at least it looks like Seifer will avoid the doubling against Knux!

Always makes me sad to see all the "LOL FFVIII sucks" people come out of the woodworks whenever something FFVIII loses though, especially with some of the silly nonsense that inevitably ends up getting posted.

At least I'll get a day of reprieve when Squall (hopefully) dominates his first round match.
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Anyway, time for some trend charts:

Time | Samus | Isaac | Sandbag | Votes
0:05 | 65.36% | 7.85% | 26.79% | 433
1:00 | 69.35% | 10.54% | 20.11% | 5201
2:00 | 67.77% | 12.65% | 19.58% | 2783
3:00 | 67.15% | 13.56% | 19.29% | 2131
4:00 | 66.21% | 13.01% | 20.78% | 1675
5:00 | 67.88% | 12.59% | 19.53% | 1398
6:00 | 68.89% | 12.37% | 18.74% | 1302
7:00 | 68.31% | 14.82% | 16.87% | 1417
8:00 | 68.58% | 13.33% | 18.09% | 1703
9:00 | 69.92% | 13.79% | 16.29% | 1762
10:00 | 70.80% | 12.36% | 16.84% | 2079
11:00 | 67.81% | 13.51% | 18.68% | 2013
12:00 | 68.09% | 13.16% | 18.75% | 1824

Samus gets a 70% hour, Isaac does a little better overnight, and Sandbag does its best work in the first half.

X-Stats:

Samus Aran – 50.00%
Sandbag – 21.58%
Isaac Clarke – 15.56%

Samus's prediction percentage was 91.26%
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I need to play FFVIII.
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1)http://i.imgur.com/3BJsRgY.png...Nice pic Zen.Too bad it can't be used in the next round.
2)Why with so many characters we have characters from the same series?This sucks.
3)As always old square is doing really good.If Seifer wasn't there and there was Tom Nook or Cirno for example she would had more than 35%.Anyway next time please help SBAllen to make a decent bracket..
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Trend chart for the day match:

Time | Neku | Vaas | Catherine | Votes
0:05 | 40.67% | 18.48% | 40.85% | 541
1:00 | 39.08% | 22.39% | 38.52% | 4452
2:00 | 38.06% | 21.82% | 40.12% | 3542
3:00 | 38.27% | 22.80% | 38.94% | 3005
4:00 | 38.48% | 22.83% | 38.69% | 2851
5:00 | 38.96% | 22.45% | 38.58% | 2628
6:00 | 36.84% | 24.54% | 38.62% | 2465
7:00 | 40.49% | 23.02% | 36.49% | 2272
8:00 | 36.49% | 18.79% | 44.73% | 2294
9:00 | 34.57% | 20.78% | 44.65% 1973
10:00 | 34.66% | 21.63% | 43.71% 1789
11:00 | 39.60% | 22.84% | 37.56% 1515
12:00 | 36.28% | 23.42% | 40.31% 1563

Moral of the story: Rallying ruins everything.

X-Stats:

Catherine – 50.00%
Neku Sakuraba – 48.73%
Vaas Montenegro – 35.87%

Catherine's prediction percentage was 30.43%
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Part of me feels as if Seifer is suffering from Generic McTeen syndrome.
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Stop saying randomly dumb stuff to get reactions.
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UltimaterializerX posted...

I was working all through Catherine's match. Glad I picked her.

What happened in the first few hours when it was really close? Rallying, or something else?

It was really close until rallying let Catherine pull away, not the opposite.
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I just can't get over how bad Seifer is doing. Squall apparently really is the only FF8 character worth a damn, which sucks. I don't even want to see how bad Laguna bombs guys
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The Great GameFAQs Character Battle IX contest: 49/55 pts
NP: Neku Sakuraba > Catherine > Vaas Montenegro

Guybrush > Laguna believe
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LinkMarioSamus posted...

Part of me feels as if Seifer is suffering from Generic McTeen syndrome.

Open mouth, insert foot.

get out of here with garbage like that
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The Great GameFAQs Character Battle IX contest: 49/56 pts
NP: Knuckles the Echidna > Seifer Almasy > Celes Chere

ffmasterjose posted...

I just can't get over how bad Seifer is doing. Squall apparently really is the only FF8 character worth a damn, which sucks. I don't even want to see how bad Laguna bombs guys

O come on Rinoa would've won her match if FF7FAQS wasn't in the match.
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ffmasterjose posted...

LinkMarioSamus posted...

Part of me feels as if Seifer is suffering from Generic McTeen syndrome.

Open mouth, insert foot.

get out of here with garbage like that

Knuckles is doing badly because he is a Generic McSonic.
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30% for Catherine?And she was the favorite...Amazing.
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Safer_777 posted...

30% for Catherine?And she was the favorite...Amazing.

That would be statistically impossible for a first round match..
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Hail Solid Snake, our CBIX champion!

I honestly do feel, however, that Celes's pic is more appealing to the average GameFAQs voter than Seifer's.

It's a comparatively generic-looking teen vs. a beautiful woman anyway.
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Swarles your new sig is awful.
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Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over....

Neku was probably the slight favorite given the seeding and the Kingdom Hearts deal, though I bet Vaas probably at least had 15%(if not more) behind him as well.
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Denzokuken posted...

Swarles your new sig is awful.

Hey I'm still voting Cloud/Sephy over anyone, but they're not going to make it! I'm just being realistic here.
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Hail Solid Snake, our CBIX champion!

I just don't see the fraud beating Link. His only 1 v 1 win of note is over a guy being antivoted so badly Tifa put up 45% on him. Can someone with such a poor record really be a character battle champion? I think the fraud will be exposed horribly should he make the final 3.
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Fine! I'll go to the store and get your Goddamn drain cleaner!
Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over....