Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1095

#301 | ffmasterjose | Posted 8/5/2013 11:20:20 PM | message detail
Holy cow Seifer you are weak. It breaks my heart to see him doing so bad :(
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#302 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/5/2013 11:22:12 PM | message detail
Haste_2 posted...
I doubt Zelda:MM drops substantially. Its showing against RBY was deceiving. I do think RBY was, and is, stronger than its score on MGS suggests.


Not to belabor this again, but this is essentially calling for crazy big rSFF on the part of G/S/C, which R/B/Y barely got 56% on and which MGS beat pretty comfortably. The idea that G/S/C would have rSFFed R/B/Y, especially considering the latter needed to SFF it as much as possible to win against MGS (and we've seen the distorted SFF that happens in those situations), is pretty remote to say the least.
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#303 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/5/2013 11:22:50 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
Where's the "Donte" nickname come from anyway? Is there anyway particular reason for "Donte", or is that just because they needed a separate nickname for DmC Dante and Donte sounds the same?


This has been in use since soon after the first DmC trailer went up. It just got popular because 'Donte' sounds like Dante while also being a lot dumber, which just about sums up Donte himself.
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#304 | Haste_2 | Posted 8/5/2013 11:30:04 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Squirtle did significantly worse on Ramza than Dante did on Laharl. Again, Blue only beat a crippled Fox by 52%.

...Zelda's still going to fold like a chump to Charizard, like she would to almost any beloved Nintendo character.

Edit: Oh, and in case you didn't get the memo last contest? After Zelda failed to triple Travis Touchdown, failed to double Ezio, failed to stop Jecht from breaking 40% on her, and got blown out of the water by Samus? Zelda is getting anti-voted just as much as Link, and her name being synonymous with her series has now become a double-edged sword.


Ah, here's something new for me to learn. I thought Zelda weakened slightly, but I guess it was more than I thought. Which is better, 54% on Kratos or 59% on Jecht? (I'm just considering Charizard's performance before HG/SS came out) I'm terrible with the stats in that 2010 contest. I completely missed that contest. I was away from GameFAQs for over a year. And, after 2007 I didn't take much time to carefully go through matches to interpret x-stats of the contests.... I hope you guys don't mind me... I hope I don't look THAT foolish....
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#305 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/5/2013 11:31:03 PM | message detail
I fear that we've gone too long without Link winning a contest and too many people won't be hankering for someone else like I am.


"Come on guys, it's been YEARS since Link won a contest. It's time to finally give the guy the recognition he deserves."

Literal Link fan logic, btw.
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#306 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/5/2013 11:32:54 PM | message detail
Ah Seifer, what a weakling. Should have seen this coming with Rinoa losing to Hero. Good show, Celes. Looks like it's just Locke that got left behind.
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#307 | Link Fanboy | Posted 8/5/2013 11:33:00 PM | message detail
But is has been years since Link got the recognition he deserves.
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#308 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/5/2013 11:33:57 PM | message detail
A lot of Jecht's performance can probably be attributed to FF13 releasing that day, but Zelda beat Aeris by 57% on the day FF12 came out. 59% on Jecht is ridiculously paltry. More to the point, though, it's obvious the site is rebelling against the LAW to some degree. Zelda is suffering because of it.
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#309 | Haste_2 | Posted 8/5/2013 11:35:06 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Haste_2 posted...
I doubt Zelda:MM drops substantially. Its showing against RBY was deceiving. I do think RBY was, and is, stronger than its score on MGS suggests.


Not to belabor this again, but this is essentially calling for crazy big rSFF on the part of G/S/C, which R/B/Y barely got 56% on and which MGS beat pretty comfortably. The idea that G/S/C would have rSFFed R/B/Y, especially considering the latter needed to SFF it as much as possible to win against MGS (and we've seen the distorted SFF that happens in those situations), is pretty remote to say the least.


Well, I'll be danged. I completely forgot RBY only got 56% on GSC. I thought it was more like 60-62%. I shoulda have checked the score, and not my foggy memory. (I know the 2002-2006 contests much better) There's no way rSFF occurred there. So, the only possible argument you could make is for Majora's Mask is RBY/Majora SFF, which is obviously doubtful. My argument for the Zelda proxy still stands, though.
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#310 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/5/2013 11:35:27 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
A lot of Jecht's performance can probably be attributed to FF13 releasing that day, but Zelda beat Aeris by 57% on the day FF12 came out. 59% on Jecht is ridiculously paltry. More to the point, though, it's obvious the site is rebelling against the LAW to some degree. Zelda is suffering because of it.


Just... be careful jumping the gun on that. Let's see how Link does against competition that matters before we get too excited.

And of course hope Snake keeps crushing his opponents.
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#311 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/5/2013 11:36:25 PM | message detail
Link Fanboy posted...
But is has been years since Link got the recognition he deserves.


The only recognition he deserves is looking down the barrel of Snake's gun.
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#312 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/5/2013 11:38:28 PM | message detail
ExThaNemesis posted...
Link Fanboy posted...
But is has been years since Link got the recognition he deserves.


The only recognition he deserves is looking down the barrel of Snake's gun.


So he can slice it to bits with his Master Sword, right!?
#313 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/5/2013 11:38:37 PM | message detail
ExThaNemesis posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
A lot of Jecht's performance can probably be attributed to FF13 releasing that day, but Zelda beat Aeris by 57% on the day FF12 came out. 59% on Jecht is ridiculously paltry. More to the point, though, it's obvious the site is rebelling against the LAW to some degree. Zelda is suffering because of it.


Just... be careful jumping the gun on that. Let's see how Link does against competition that matters before we get too excited.

And of course hope Snake keeps crushing his opponents.


What I said is almost indisputably true... I mean, Cloud Strife won the board vote against Link last contest. It just may not be enough. People forget how strong Link used to be, and how ridiculously dominating he is even in this weakened state.
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#314 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/5/2013 11:40:13 PM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
ExThaNemesis posted...
Link Fanboy posted...
But is has been years since Link got the recognition he deserves.


The only recognition he deserves is looking down the barrel of Snake's gun.


So he can slice it to bits with his Master Sword, right!?


Only so Snake can embarrass him with CQC right after.
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#315 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/5/2013 11:47:02 PM | message detail | (edited)
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3269

That was back in 2008 and was a great showing at the time. Remember what happened to Kefka and Magus that year? Kain was in the second Dissidia since then too.

Forget additional FFVI characters. We've already got 4 of them in this bracket anyways.

You want proven old Square strength? Bring back Kain. You want Dissidia characters? Kain was in Duodecim.

Basically bring back Kain.
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#316 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/5/2013 11:46:52 PM | message detail
I'm real hesitant on Kain. He was the only real option (Layton doesn't count) of two of the biggest anti-vote magnets in contest history.

But yeah, let's see him again. Couldn't hurt.
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#317 | ZinsanityCraze | Posted 8/5/2013 11:48:27 PM | message detail
Link Fanboy posted...
But is has been years since Link got the recognition he deserves.


Link will finally get the recognition he deserves, an ass beating of a lifetime at the hands of Snake!!!
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#318 | creativename | Posted 8/5/2013 11:49:31 PM | message detail
Haste_2 posted...
I doubt Zelda:MM drops substantially. Its showing against RBY was deceiving. I do think RBY was, and is, stronger than its score on MGS suggests. RBY could have been SFFed a little, but far more likely, was effected by leeching.

And, as logical as the Zelda proxy idea is... yeah, I'm sure it had some effect, but not massive. For one thing, the extra gas wouldn't occur until later rounds, and so MM's victory against GSC was probably legit. But yeah, it's hard for me to imagine it beating Brawl and FFX on its own merits.

Well RBY went from 63.72% on MM to 55.40% once MGS and GSC were added. And GSC went from 46.67% on MGS to 36.29% when RBY and MM were added. So that's probably a 10-point swing from Pokemon leeching.

GSC scored 46% on MM with RBY and MGS in the poll. In the GOTD it only got 46.05% - that to me indicates that something very wonky is going on there. So even before the late round Brawl/FFX matches, MM's strength was already in a different tier. Otherwise it should have lost handily to GSC rather than winning handily.

I don't think the 4-way games contest hid MM's "real" strength, I think it's strength in that contest was totally different that it's strength in the 4-way. Since those two contests were only a year apart, Zelda proxy seems to be the best logic IMO. Or at least, the "least bad" logic.

and I am dang slow when making posts, because I'm not as quick-minded as others. =p

Yes same with me. By the time I start posting to when I post, we always have another page of replies it seems.

And KH seems to beat me to pretty much everything these days! I swear he's become a robot, like our favorite LusterBot.
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#319 | Haste_2 | Posted 8/5/2013 11:50:02 PM | message detail
I find it interesting how Cloud and Link weakened proportionally in 2010 (I've known for a while by now). For the longest time I figured they were the same strength as they had always been and had a few messed up matches. But if Snake is at, say, 44% on (I'm still early contest-oriented) BL, Cloud is at only 46% on BL, and Link is at.... huh, about equal to his 2003 self (which is BL, or "base link" for the uninformed). WHOAMG. I never actually did any rough calculations until now.
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#320 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/5/2013 11:55:56 PM | message detail | (edited)
I think Link 2010 is even weaker than BL, personally. I mean, the field is closer to him in a way that they've never been pre-2010. Either they ALL boosted or Link just weakened.

Edit: Although in a little neat factoid, boosting Sephiroth slightly (since he'd probably have done better on Snake in a 24 hour match) puts him at about the same percentage as he scored on Link in the very first contest. 2002 strikes again!
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#321 | Haste_2 | Posted 8/5/2013 11:58:09 PM | message detail
Yes, that's very possible, considering Samus is worth just about 45% on Link then. Hm, I'd be interested in someone doing precise calculations to try and peg where Link 2010 is compared to his past self(ves), if it hasn't been done already.
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#322 | creativename | Posted 8/6/2013 12:01:23 AM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
This has been in use since soon after the first DmC trailer went up. It just got popular because 'Donte' sounds like Dante while also being a lot dumber, which just about sums up Donte himself.

Ok, thanks :)

Karma Hunter posted...
What I said is almost indisputably true... I mean, Cloud Strife won the board vote against Link last contest. It just may not be enough. People forget how strong Link used to be, and how ridiculously dominating he is even in this weakened state.

I see this said a lot, and I don't understand why - Cloud did not win the board vote against Link. Cloud did better with the board vote than with the rest of the Power Hour, but he still finished 4 points higher than what he got at the freeze.

Haste_2 posted...
I find it interesting how Cloud and Link weakened proportionally in 2010 (I've known for a while by now). For the longest time I figured they were the same strength as they had always been and had a few messed up matches. But if Snake is at, say, 44% on (I'm still early contest-oriented) BL, Cloud is at only 46% on BL, and Link is at.... huh, about equal to his 2003 self (which is BL, or "base link" for the uninformed). WHOAMG. I never actually did any rough calculations until now.


If you're using Ngamer's site for the Base Link values, ignore those. There is some massive inflation going on there. Link 2K2/2K3 would clearly stomp current Link. Link 2010 is, at best, 47% on Link 2K2/2K3. Probably at least a point lower than that though.

Link has also become non-linear, like FF7 albeit not as extreme.
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#323 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/6/2013 12:14:41 AM | message detail | (edited)
Haste_2 posted...
Yes, that's very possible, considering Samus is worth just about 45% on Link then. Hm, I'd be interested in someone doing precise calculations to try and peg where Link 2010 is compared to his past self(ves), if it hasn't been done already.


I'd say Squall 2010 = Squall 2006 and adjust from there... but I don't like the 2006 stats in relation to BL too much (namely Samus worth 46 on BL). Edit: Maybe use 42%, her 2004 score on BL? I don't see much reason why Samus would have boosted so radically from 2004 to 2006.
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#324 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/6/2013 12:03:51 AM | message detail
creativename posted...
I see this said a lot, and I don't understand why - Cloud did not win the board vote against Link. Cloud did better with the board vote than with the rest of the Power Hour, but he still finished 4 points higher than what he got at the freeze.


When I say 'win the board vote', that's what I mean - that Link went UP after the freeze, not Cloud. Cloud going down after the freeze is basically unprecedented, and is very indicative of Link anti-votes.
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#325 | Lopen | Posted 8/6/2013 12:05:09 AM | message detail | (edited)
Well yes because the power hour vote doesn't cease existing due to the board vote. If you win relative to the power hour trend you won the board vote. That's what it means. (replying to cn not KH here)
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#326 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/6/2013 12:08:03 AM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
WellThoughtName posted...
TheKoolAidShoto posted...
FF8 is SO ASS


Well, it's the worst "Golden Era" FF by far, and a case could be made about it being the worst FF period. (I guess 2, XII or XIII could be considered worst)


8 was a great game, it just suffers from having a terrible cast. Even then, 8's cast is better than all of the games after 8.


"There is no way someone has this opinion...maybe only Black Turtle and he is known FFIX hater...let's see who wrote this crap....oh"
#327 | CP724 | Posted 8/6/2013 12:14:44 AM | message detail
I think Link 2010 is even weaker than BL, personally. I mean, the field is closer to him in a way that they've never been pre-2010. Either they ALL boosted or Link just weakened.

I dont know if hes weakened that much if he can do this to sonic

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3850
#328 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/6/2013 12:15:21 AM | message detail
CrushDavis posted...
WellThoughtName posted...
TheKoolAidShoto posted...
FF8 is SO ASS


Well, it's the worst "Golden Era" FF by far, and a case could be made about it being the worst FF period. (I guess 2, XII or XIII could be considered worst)


Its pretty insulting to XII and XIII to be put in the same category


You guys remember my mention of that friend of mine whose top two FFs are XII and XIII?
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#329 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/6/2013 12:16:11 AM | message detail
CP724 posted...
I think Link 2010 is even weaker than BL, personally. I mean, the field is closer to him in a way that they've never been pre-2010. Either they ALL boosted or Link just weakened.

I dont know if hes weakened that much if he can do this to sonic

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3850


Link SFFed Sonic. Sonic isn't barely above Alucard:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3794

That match means nothing.
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#330 | CP724 | Posted 8/6/2013 12:17:19 AM | message detail
Well yes because the power hour vote doesn't cease existing due to the board vote. If you win relative to the power hour trend you won the board vote. That's what it means. (replying to cn not KH here)

No it doesnt. If your board is is higher than your ending percentage you win the board vote. That makes a ton more sense.
#331 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/6/2013 12:18:41 AM | message detail
Sonic also just sucked that year.

Compare what he did to this and go "what?"

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3842
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#332 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/6/2013 12:19:05 AM | message detail
CP724 posted...
Well yes because the power hour vote doesn't cease existing due to the board vote. If you win relative to the power hour trend you won the board vote. That's what it means. (replying to cn not KH here)

No it doesnt. If your board is is higher than your ending percentage you win the board vote. That makes a ton more sense.


this just in, day vote characters apparently never win the board vote
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#333 | Lopen | Posted 8/6/2013 12:19:24 AM | message detail
Maybe if you only count the first minute as the board vote. The first five is pretty diluted by power hour so it's hard for any non power hour character to "win it"
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#334 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/6/2013 12:20:34 AM | message detail
creativename posted...
Being serious, Snake's problem is that Link will siphon off his Nintendo fanbase, which means Snake is suffering from a handicap that will likely cancel out the presence of Mario.


I have yet to see a case of Snake being SFFed by Link, Mario, or Samus because of his appearance in Brawl. At least 95% of Snake's strength is going to come from his own fanbase. It's also been over 5 years since Brawl came out, so I can't imagine too many voters actually voting for Snake because he was in Brawl (without playing a Metal Gear game). There are very few matches with Snake in a match against a Nintendo Noble Niner, so we haven't seen Snake getting SFFed yet.

2006 - Samus beat Snake pretty easily, but I don't see anything fishy in that match. I think Samus was legitimately stronger than Snake that year. Snake did not appear to be SFFed in any of his Battle Royale matches, either.

2007 - Snake never ran into any of the Nintendo Noble Niners until Link in the finals, and that match is unreliable because Snake was LPF'd into the ground.

2008 - Due to Snake's bandwagon against Link, it's impossible to determine if there was any SFF from Link.

2010 - Never faced off against any Nintendo Noble Niners.
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#335 | creativename | Posted 8/6/2013 12:21:18 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Haste_2 posted...
I'd say Squall 2010 = Squall 2006 and adjust from there... but I don't like the 2006 stats in relation to BL too much (namely Samus worth 46 on BL).

In 2K3 Squall was at 31.72% on Link, in 2006 he had 39.77% on Samus, and in 2010 he was at 36.35% on Link while Samus was at 43.85% (setting Samus 2006=Samus 2010 gives him a 2K6 value of 34.88% on Link). I don't think those numbers tell the story though.

If I had to guess, I'd just say current Link is between 44.50% and 46.50% on classic/base Link. That's based on the degree to which the field has narrowed.

Karma Hunter posted...
creativename posted...
I see this said a lot, and I don't understand why - Cloud did not win the board vote against Link. Cloud did better with the board vote than with the rest of the Power Hour, but he still finished 4 points higher than what he got at the freeze.


When I say 'win the board vote', that's what I mean - that Link went UP after the freeze, not Cloud. Cloud going down after the freeze is basically unprecedented, and is very indicative of Link anti-votes.

OK...not sure I'd agree with that definition as the second freeze is almost like an extended board vote, though yes I can't recall another instance of Cloud dropping from the first freeze.

I was also wrong though - even compared to the rest of the Power Hour Cloud didn't win the board vote:
www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3856&num=2

He bottomed at 00:20, then rose to heaven after that.
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#336 | CP724 | Posted 8/6/2013 12:25:36 AM | message detail
Link SFFed Sonic. Sonic isn't barely above Alucard:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3794

That match means nothing.


I still don't think hes weakened that much. He just has a static antivote base like Cloud and so looks weaker against against crappy competition. I guess you can say that is him weakening a bit but it doesnt mean much when he faces strong characters. He did unerwhelm slightly against Cloud though in 2010 ill admit I expected about 55% there.
#337 | Lopen | Posted 8/6/2013 12:26:37 AM | message detail
Actually looking at the updates yeah I wouldn't really call that "winning the board vote" either. It's just losing it by a lot less than you'd expect Cloud to, which is notable in its own right but yeah. That's basically a tie at the board vote.
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#338 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/6/2013 12:29:22 AM | message detail
I actually worked it out a little differently. Set Samus 2004 = Samus 2006 and Squall 2006 = Squall 2010. Squall 2010 is worth 36.35% on Link 2010. Squall 2006 is worth 39.77% on Samus 2006. Samus 2004 is worth 42.36 on BL.

If I did my math right, that means Link 2010 should be worth 46.34% on BL. That sounds about right to me.
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#339 | Sorozone | Posted 8/6/2013 12:29:56 AM | message detail
Seifer mounting that 2nd place comeback. 2 vote cut!
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#340 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/6/2013 12:31:17 AM | message detail
Celes has cut Knuckles, too. Not bad for someone who's being held back like crazy and was supposed to come in 3rd.
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#341 | creativename | Posted 8/6/2013 12:38:09 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
CP724 posted...
Well yes because the power hour vote doesn't cease existing due to the board vote. If you win relative to the power hour trend you won the board vote. That's what it means. (replying to cn not KH here)

No it doesnt. If your board is is higher than your ending percentage you win the board vote. That makes a ton more sense.


this just in, day vote characters apparently never win the board vote

Day vote characters probably drop overnight, otherwise they wouldn't be considered day vote characters, which means they are still quite capable of winning the board vote ;)

Really though, "winning the board vote" should at the very least be compared to the rest of the Power Hour, if not the finish. If it's just based what happens on the 2nd freeze, you're going to get some really weird "winners of the board vote".

-LusterSoldier- posted...
I have yet to see a case of Snake being SFFed by Link, Mario, or Samus because of his appearance in Brawl. At least 95% of Snake's strength is going to come from his own fanbase. It's also been over 5 years since Brawl came out, so I can't imagine too many voters actually voting for Snake because he was in Brawl (without playing a Metal Gear game). There are very few matches with Snake in a match against a Nintendo Noble Niner, so we haven't seen Snake getting SFFed yet.

Oh no doubt he gets the large majority of his strength from his own series, and yes we've yet to see a concrete example of him getting SFFed by Nintendo - though he's never been in a situation where his most important fight was against Nintendo. Much easier to bandwagon Snake if the enemy is Cloud, than if it is Link, even if Link has become an anti-vote target himself.

I think though that he gets at least a couple points of "x-stat points" strength from Brawl - I'd say he gets 2-4 points from Brawl. And on the Nintendo hierarchy, he should be below both Link and Mario. Now most of that Nintendo support will abandon Mario, and a Snake bandwagon combined with Mario LFFing Link can be enough to win...but we've never seen a Snake bandwagon with Nintendo being the target either.

And even if you assume Mario will LFF Link a bit, it shouldn't be a huge amount. Which means Snake has some significant making up to do.

Now I fully expected Snake - if he gets to the final, which he should - to be winning the Power Hours, and perhaps even be winning when the sun comes up. He's going to have a rough time of it during the day though.

24 hour Link>>12 hour Link.

CP724 posted...
I still don't think hes weakened that much. He just has a static antivote base like Cloud and so looks weaker against against crappy competition. I guess you can say that is him weakening a bit but it doesnt mean much when he faces strong characters. He did unerwhelm slightly against Cloud though in 2010 ill admit I expected about 55% there.

As KH said before, either Link has dropped or everyone else has gone up.

Link is not only non-linear now, he's also weakened. Now he hasn't weakened as much as his matches vs. fodder would suggest - hence him being non-linear. But, he's definitely dropped a noticable amount as well. If he hadn't dropped, he would have beaten Cloud by more than he did. Because Cloud has clearly dropped and he did better than he's done in years.
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#342 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/6/2013 12:38:42 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
charmander6000 posted...
The site has shifted away from PSX Square and has seemingly shifted towards Old Square. I think characters like Kefka, Cecil, Celes, etc. are just flat out stronger than they have been in the past.

Makes you wonder what happened to Locke


This is Locke's first contest. Who knows how weak he'd have been before.


Ness may have SFFd him.

For all we know, SNES characters have boosted. Samus over Cloud now may be a mortal lock.
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#343 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/6/2013 12:41:34 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
charmander6000 posted...
The site has shifted away from PSX Square and has seemingly shifted towards Old Square. I think characters like Kefka, Cecil, Celes, etc. are just flat out stronger than they have been in the past.

Makes you wonder what happened to Locke


This is Locke's first contest. Who knows how weak he'd have been before.


Ness may have SFFd him.

For all we know, SNES characters have boosted. Samus over Cloud now may be a mortal lock.


That is a possibility. But Ness is weak and not exactly someone I'd expect to SFF anyone. I think Locke just might be that weak.
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#344 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/6/2013 12:47:53 AM | message detail | (edited)
For what it is worth, using Snake/Fox 2010 and Snake/Squall 2010, Fox ends up pretty close to what he got on Squall in 2008. He does a touch better than he did in 2008 but he was almost certainly getting LPF'd there. It's not a very good piece of evidence for a Snake underperformance at any rate.

Edit: That match was also full of dual Nintendo/Square SFF, so you may want to use Squall/Sora and Sora/Fox to project Squall's percentage. That actually means Snake overperformed on Fox relative to that projection.
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#345 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/6/2013 12:49:31 AM | message detail
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
You're seriously picking a Sonic character to win the European vote against an FFVI character?

Wait, let me rephrase that. You're seriously taking a non-Noble Niner to take the European vote from an FFVI character?

I've been mapping out this contest, and I find that risky. Locke and Terra's matches both showed that FFVI was massively popular over there.


...how? FFVI wasn't even released in Europe initially.
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#346 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/6/2013 12:52:36 AM | message detail
Fayt_Esteed posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Lopen posted...
I have this weird feeling that Master Chief could've beaten Link that year if L-Block didn't surface, which would've been amazing on so many levels.

Stupid Block.


The feasibility of this aside, MC would have never survived the backlash. You'd see him struggle to beat anything that isn't fodder today if he'd beaten Link then.

Cloud is still suffering backlash from beating Link a decade ago I mean my goodness


And... I get the feeling Halo is still anti-voted.


For what it's worth the Halo games performed well in GOTD. Although then again, 53% on Super Mario Sunshine and 53% on Uncharted 2 probably don't look very good anymore.

I still feel as if the Halo series performed better in GOTD compared to every prior contest (aside from one obvious exception), but again, this could be more due to us "learning our lesson" and betting against the series instead of constantly getting burned by Master Chief's upset losses. If Master Chief and Halo didn't have a reputation for consistently choking, would Sunshine have been the favorite over Halo 3 and Uncharted 2 the favorite over Halo?
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#347 | CP724 | Posted 8/6/2013 12:53:19 AM | message detail
As KH said before, either Link has dropped or everyone else has gone up.

Link is not only non-linear now, he's also weakened. Now he hasn't weakened as much as his matches vs. fodder would suggest - hence him being non-linear. But, he's definitely dropped a noticable amount as well. If he hadn't dropped, he would have beaten Cloud by more than he did. Because Cloud has clearly dropped and he did better than he's done in years.


Yeah, I did expect him to get like 55-56% on Cloud. I reckon when anti votes have the least effect hes weakened by about 2%, which isnt that big a drop
#348 | creativename | Posted 8/6/2013 12:53:44 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
I actually worked it out a little differently. Set Samus 2004 = Samus 2006 and Squall 2006 = Squall 2010. Squall 2010 is worth 36.35% on Link 2010. Squall 2006 is worth 39.77% on Samus 2006. Samus 2004 is worth 42.36 on BL.

If I did my math right, that means Link 2010 should be worth 46.34% on BL. That sounds about right to me.

Well those Samus 42.36% on BL stats are suspect - they come from setting Link 2k4 to being worth 53.38% on BL, which doesn't make any sense. Link had no reason to boost from 2k3 to 2k4. I think those stats are based on Cloud 2k4=Cloud 2k3, which doesn't make any sense because Cloud did much worse against Samus in 2K4 than he would have done in 2K3. Pretty clear that Cloud dropped in 2k4.

You can't compare one year to another based on the stats at Ngamer's site, because they suffer greatly from x-stat inflation. The number you come up with there is a decent estimate, but the methodology is based on inaccurate data. There's just no way Link 2k4 was worth 53.38% on Link 2k2.

Karma Hunter posted...
Celes has cut Knuckles, too. Not bad for someone who's being held back like crazy and was supposed to come in 3rd.

I don't think Seifer is really holding her back much, if at all. But yes this is a great show by Celes, who I absolutely adore - Opera Scene is one of the greatest game scenes of all time. Possibly #1 cutscene ever.

Celes showing strength is one of the coolest results so far :) SNESFAQs! SNES=greatest console ever btw.

Fayt_Esteed posted...
That is a possibility. But Ness is weak and not exactly someone I'd expect to SFF anyone. I think Locke just might be that weak.

Yeah, Locke is probably just that weak. In general main characters don't seem to drop in strength over time as much as supporting characters (for example Crono). And the main characters in FF6 are Terra/Kefka/Celes, depending on your definition. Locke is among the most important supporting characters, but he isn't a main by any definition.

It's why I think back in the day Shadow would have been very strong, but he isn't a main character so I think he'd be fodder now. High end fodder, but still probably fodder.
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#349 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/6/2013 12:56:18 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Squirtle did significantly worse on Ramza than Dante did on Laharl. Again, Blue only beat a crippled Fox by 52%.

...Zelda's still going to fold like a chump to Charizard, like she would to almost any beloved Nintendo character.

Edit: Oh, and in case you didn't get the memo last contest? After Zelda failed to triple Travis Touchdown, failed to double Ezio, failed to stop Jecht from breaking 40% on her, and got blown out of the water by Samus? Zelda is getting anti-voted just as much as Link, and her name being synonymous with her series has now become a double-edged sword.


IIRC a major reason why people were backing Zelda is because she might have been under SFF last contest.

Also Zelda stood up pretty well to Mario in 2008. For whatever reason, I get the feeling that Zelda would rSFF Mario or Mega Man since people would see the poll options as being representative of their titular series, while Samus can score SFF on Zelda because people would actually see it as a character poll and both draw heavily from Smash Bros.

I picked Charizard there though, so I'm not really defending that pick.
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#350 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/6/2013 1:01:39 AM | message detail | (edited)
creativename posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
I actually worked it out a little differently. Set Samus 2004 = Samus 2006 and Squall 2006 = Squall 2010. Squall 2010 is worth 36.35% on Link 2010. Squall 2006 is worth 39.77% on Samus 2006. Samus 2004 is worth 42.36 on BL.

If I did my math right, that means Link 2010 should be worth 46.34% on BL. That sounds about right to me.

Well those Samus 42.36% on BL stats are suspect - they come from setting Link 2k4 to being worth 53.38% on BL, which doesn't make any sense. Link had no reason to boost from 2k3 to 2k4. I think those stats are based on Cloud 2k4=Cloud 2k3, which doesn't make any sense because Cloud did much worse against Samus in 2K4 than he would have done in 2K3. Pretty clear that Cloud dropped in 2k4.

You can't compare one year to another based on the stats at Ngamer's site, because they suffer greatly from x-stat inflation. The number you come up with there is a decent estimate, but the methodology is based on inaccurate data. There's just no way Link 2k4 was worth 53.38% on Link 2k2.


Eh, Link pretty clearly boosted in 2004 on Twilight Princess trailer hype. The buzz for it was deafening. Samus is also obscured in 2k3 because of Link/Samus SFF - getting the Metroid Prime games helped her out immensely. Just check the difference in her performances on Sonic.

Edit: And if you wanna peg Link 2k4 = BL (which is an estimate we can all agree he's probably not *worse* than), Link 2010's worth 43.21% on BL. Possible, but that's much too weak even for me.
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