Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1094

#51 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/5/2013 1:42:23 PM | message detail
Pikachu may not be worth 46.5% on Crono, but I do feel my 57/43 prediction using Squall is an accurate representation of how a normal match would go.

That might not be enough to win with LFF though.
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#52 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/5/2013 1:42:39 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
1337gamerpr0 posted...
so what's the excuse when a Pokemon rally puts Pikachu over 50% :P


uhhhhhh

is this a serious question


I'm joking, calm down
#53 | The_Djoker | Posted 8/5/2013 1:44:02 PM | message detail
Samus will beat Cloud. You heard it here first.
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#54 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/5/2013 1:44:26 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Pikachu scored 46.5% directly on Crono the only time they've met


C'mon, yo, you know better than this! Surely you remember the concerted effort of save_us.rat!


Well if one wants to presume that Pikachu was boosted in R3 in order to thwart Pikachu, one should also presume that Crono/Vincent were boosted in R4 while battling each other, and that Pikachu's overall X-Stats percentage suffered because of it (not to mention Samus being in the poll and Pika getting potentiall 4th place factored). I think if nothing else, we've gotta give Pikachu a fair percentage into the 40s on Crono in 2008 (between 42 and 46.5, I guess). Pikachu may be stronger now, Crono may be weaker, and the situation of the match is about as skewed in Pikachu's favor as it could possibly get.
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#55 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/5/2013 1:44:55 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
How's he supposed to prove it? He did well enough in 2008 to stop L-Block (the board considered him a hero) and made Snake look lulzy in 2010. His only "bad" match from recent memory is against Shepard, and again, we're still not sure where Shep stands. If Shep beats Aeris easily, that 61% Pika-win suddenly looks really good, I'd say.


Shep should have boosted quite significantly again from 2010, he's had ME2 on PS3 and ME3 since then. I have Shepard beating Aeris easily, mostly because of anticipating FF7 decline combined with that. I still don't think the 61% on Shepard is impressive.

Sprite Snake is worth nothing; Frog and Bowser and Yoshi have been getting constantly exposed to people even now because of that. What Pikachu needs to do to prove something to me is face someone worth a damn on an equal playing field - like what Charizard did with Kratos. He's obviously not going to get that this contest, but yeah.
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#56 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/5/2013 1:45:03 PM | message detail
In order to thwart L-BLOCK DAMMIT

BACON LET ME EDIT MY F***ING POSTS
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#57 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/5/2013 1:45:17 PM | message detail
The_Djoker posted...
Samus will beat Cloud. You heard it here first.


if she somehow beats Mario, sure
#58 | swordz9 | Posted 8/5/2013 1:45:47 PM | message detail
Catherine fighting back again.
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#59 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/5/2013 1:47:39 PM | message detail
Though if Pikachu beats Crono and Nathan Drake pulls a miracle out of his ass and slips by Blue, I will acknowledge that Pikachu v Sora v Drake should be more or less a decently fair fight between Pikachu and Sora.
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#60 | nintendogirl1 (Moderator) | Posted 8/5/2013 1:50:08 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
In order to thwart L-BLOCK DAMMIT

BACON LET ME EDIT MY F***ING POSTS


It's a punishment for your betrayal of Ariel.
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#61 | The_Djoker | Posted 8/5/2013 1:51:52 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
The_Djoker posted...
Samus will beat Cloud. You heard it here first.


if she somehow beats Mario, sure


Indirectly, sure.
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#62 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/5/2013 1:52:33 PM | message detail
Pikachu has been given favorable situation after favorable situation. There's not much chance he's underrated at this point, so I wouldn't really argue Samus LFF'd him or Crono/Vincent being in a tight one significantly hurt his X-Stat ranking in 2008. 37.50% on 2008 Samus is pretty darn good, and I don't think Pikachu would manage much more than that against her in a "fair" fight.
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#63 | Greyfeld | Posted 8/5/2013 1:53:37 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
In order to thwart L-BLOCK DAMMIT

BACON LET ME EDIT MY F***ING POSTS


Click "message detail", then scroll down a little bit and click the "edit" button. Voila.
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#64 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/5/2013 1:56:23 PM | message detail
spoilers his user level isn't high enough to edit posts

I think he's been here long enough to know how to edit
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#65 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/5/2013 1:56:25 PM | message detail
Greyfeld posted...
ChenKenichiFan posted...
In order to thwart L-BLOCK DAMMIT

BACON LET ME EDIT MY F***ING POSTS


Click "message detail", then scroll down a little bit and click the "edit" button. Voila.


I don't think he has the karma to edit posts
for that matter, neither do I
#66 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/5/2013 1:58:24 PM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
The problem is that the other new western characters were all up against noteworthy characters. This is Neku and Catherine we're talking about, one from an 8 year old DS RPG that sold 50k copies, and the other from a Japanese dating sim porno that only Board 8 has played.

People always try to say that when they agree with one of my upsets, their bracket is screwed, but the proof is in the pudding. Top 10 Guru, almost Top 10 overall right now. Be nice if people showed a little respect around here.

I'm not saying I'm perfect, but I see it all the time in this topic when I lay out an argument for a pick, or for a trend analysis, and the assclown brigade comes out of the woodwork to (incorrectly) try and shoot my argument down.


Where is he
Mr DONT SHOOT DOWN MY ARGUMENT IM TOP 10 GURU
Well not anymore you don't
#67 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/5/2013 1:59:32 PM | message detail
Meanwhile I have Mewtwo > Vincent but it's almost entirely predicated on an FF7 drop... and Mewtwo choking against Midna being a fluke. Man I don't really have a good explanation for that either and that makes me feel terrible
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#68 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/5/2013 1:59:34 PM | message detail
Dammit, Neku refuses to give up....

That 100-vote barrier is so close, but so far away.....
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#69 | raginbull911 | Posted 8/5/2013 2:01:28 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Meanwhile I have Mewtwo > Vincent but it's almost entirely predicated on an FF7 drop... and Mewtwo choking against Midna being a fluke. Man I don't really have a good explanation for that either and that makes me feel terrible


All in on Phoenix Wright!
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#70 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/5/2013 2:02:24 PM | message detail
Phoenix > Vincent & Mewtwo would be by far the greatest result in contest history but hahahahahaha ;-;
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#71 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/5/2013 2:02:57 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
and Mewtwo choking against Midna being a fluke


I blame Pac-Man...

For Midna not winning.
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#72 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/5/2013 2:04:43 PM | message detail
I don't think we can call this match "the closest match ever" because the vote totals are really.really low
Percentages don't work as well
We need to multiply the number of votes by 3 or something IMO
#73 | raginbull911 | Posted 8/5/2013 2:11:08 PM | message detail
2 straight cuts for Neku, down to a 37 vote differential. Craziness.
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#74 | nkansas13 | Posted 8/5/2013 2:12:13 PM | message detail
This is one of those matches that would be awesome if it had nonfodder characters.
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#75 | swordz9 | Posted 8/5/2013 2:13:09 PM | message detail
#76 | Achromatic | Posted 8/5/2013 2:13:32 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Meanwhile I have Mewtwo > Vincent but it's almost entirely predicated on an FF7 drop... and Mewtwo choking against Midna being a fluke. Man I don't really have a good explanation for that either and that makes me feel terrible


I hope for your sake that one is a day match.
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#77 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/5/2013 2:15:04 PM | message detail
Achromatic posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Meanwhile I have Mewtwo > Vincent but it's almost entirely predicated on an FF7 drop... and Mewtwo choking against Midna being a fluke. Man I don't really have a good explanation for that either and that makes me feel terrible


I hope for your sake that one is a day match.


hahahahahaha NOPE
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#78 | Masato_Tanaka | Posted 8/5/2013 2:16:04 PM | message detail
cmonnnn Neku

I need this point to keep my leaderboard run strong and alive
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#79 | Qwaar | Posted 8/5/2013 2:17:19 PM | message detail
Gah, really need this to go my way to get into the top 5.
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#80 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 8/5/2013 2:17:53 PM | message detail
cmooooooooon Catherine

I need this point to finally get on the leaderboard
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#81 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/5/2013 2:19:56 PM | message detail
I wish Mewtwo/Vincent/Phoenix came at the end of the contest when brackets would no longer be a factor. It's so sad to think about bracket voters potentially giving Vincent a respectable freeze when, against Pokemon and Wrighto, it would otherwise be a contest comedy classic.
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#82 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/5/2013 2:21:17 PM | message detail
FF7 anti-votes will find a way
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#83 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/5/2013 2:23:44 PM | message detail
A few days ago someone pased a chart of previous contests votals
Does anyone saved it?
#84 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/5/2013 2:24:32 PM | message detail
I'm sure Luster will post it again shortly.
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#85 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/5/2013 2:29:21 PM | message detail | (edited)
But uhhhhhh yeah let's see if we take Vincent/Ganondorf and Ganondorf/Mewtwo that means Mewtwo is expected to get, like, 39% on Vincent... now let's say Ganondorf SFFed Mewtwo, uh, 'somehow' (hey looking at Midna maybe Zelda is Mewtwo's kryptonite!) and we can move him up to like 44% on Vincent. Now just add a couple more points of Pokemon boosting and FF7 falling and ignoring the fact that it's a night match, voila! bye bye vinnie

edit: alternatively using KOS-MOS Mewtwo and Phoenix are both going to trounce Vincent by like a jillion percent
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#86 | Masato_Tanaka | Posted 8/5/2013 2:30:17 PM | message detail
ugh is Catherine starting to pull away
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#87 | Qwaar | Posted 8/5/2013 2:30:35 PM | message detail
It's surprising that this topic is so slow considering how exciting the match is.
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#88 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/5/2013 2:31:08 PM | message detail
Because nobody cares for fodder characters.
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#89 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/5/2013 2:31:28 PM | message detail
I really doubt the Vincent that once upset Ganondorf is the same guy that just got held to 60% by KOS-MOS.
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#90 | swordz9 | Posted 8/5/2013 2:31:33 PM | message detail
It's looking like this will keep up the whole match. Whenever Neku gets close Catherine puts the lead over 50 again. I don't think anybody is getting a 100 vote lead this match.
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#91 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/5/2013 2:32:19 PM | message detail
*people keep saying 'X' is pulling away*

*lead for either character has never been over 100 so far, not once*
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#92 | TyrekeEvans13 | Posted 8/5/2013 2:34:09 PM | message detail
Soooo what's everyone for the next one? Seifer > Celes?
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#93 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 8/5/2013 2:35:03 PM | message detail
So apparently I'm tied with Yo until Shep/Aeris
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#94 | Masato_Tanaka | Posted 8/5/2013 2:36:34 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
*people keep saying 'X' is pulling away*

*lead for either character has never been over 100 so far, not once*


"pulling away" for me is like any sort of really small gains every update lol
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#95 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/5/2013 2:37:03 PM | message detail
Apart from the board (and this topic) naturally shrinking over time, we now simply have a better understanding of trends and how things go, and we've seen enough of these that we won't go losing our heads at every little thing (though losing our heads is among the funnest moments of these contests). We'd used to care just as much whether it was fodder or not. Who else remembers the day when Kefka vs. Vercetti filled up six stats topics?
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#96 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/5/2013 2:38:29 PM | message detail
Kotetsu534 posted...
I really doubt the Vincent that once upset Ganondorf is the same guy that just got held to 60% by KOS-MOS.


No doubt, but it's hard to evaluate that in the face of FF7 anti-votes. Ridley made Cloud look like he would have lost with laughable ease against Samus (seriously, he didn't do much better on him than Samus did on Sub-Zero), but when the time came he scored a relatively easy win over her.
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#97 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/5/2013 2:39:01 PM | message detail
LordoftheMorons posted...
So apparently I'm tied with Yo until Shep/Aeris


I've gotta give you the advantage there. Actually, I'm now rooting for Shepard and against my bracket. My hopes lie almost entirely on Nathan Drake winning in R2, and any hopeful candle flame for that gets snuffed out if Shep (who is in a somewhat similar situation) can't pull through.
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#98 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/5/2013 2:39:03 PM | message detail
I think this is the first day match (night for me) that im going to sleep without knowing who the winner is going to be
Sure there was Protoman comeback but I didn't believe in it
#99 | Masato_Tanaka | Posted 8/5/2013 2:39:59 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Apart from the board (and this topic) naturally shrinking over time, we now simply have a better understanding of trends and how things go, and we've seen enough of these that we won't go losing our heads at every little thing (though losing our heads is among the funnest moments of these contests). We'd used to care just as much whether it was fodder or not. Who else remembers the day when Kefka vs. Vercetti filled up six stats topics?


Kefka vs Vercetti was prolly the greatest Round 1 match ever
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#100 | swordz9 | Posted 8/5/2013 2:41:39 PM | message detail
Catherine close to 100 again so that means Neku is going to get closer again.
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