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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1094
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you wanted to make this topic? SO ZETTA SLOW ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~ http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://www.thengamer.com/ http://thengamer.com/xstats ~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame ~*Character Contest Histories*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the Match Pics*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php ~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~ https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0 ~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense. Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated. --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] |
Boobs > Teenage Boys. --- Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. SuperNiceDog > Me |
Neku's not just going to roll over and die, is he? --- "Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
Zylothewolf posted... Boobs > Teenage Boys. BY THE WAY she's hardly got boobs for this match. |
Reposting this again, just to give everyone an idea of how this match has gone thus far Closest Wire-to-Wire Matches Shadow of the Colossus > Metal Gear Solid 2 2010, lead maxed at 188 (1 v 1) Tales of Symphonia > God of War 2009, lead maxed at 403 (4-Way, for 2ND PLACE) Tharja > Tiny Tina 2013, lead maxed at 437 (3-Way) Largest Lead as of this post is 94. --- Now Awaiting: Tales of Xillia, Squigly patch for Skullgirls |
StarStormScream posted... Reposting this again, just to give everyone an idea of how this match has gone thus far Interesting. I'm not sure who to root for here, I have Catherine winning in my bracket, and Neku in my expert. |
Neku 5019 Catherine 5032 13 vote differential. --- Warning, the self-destruct system has been activated, all personnel should evacuate immediately, 5 minutes to detonation. |
Neku 5103 Catherine 5141 38 vote differential. --- Warning, the self-destruct system has been activated, all personnel should evacuate immediately, 5 minutes to detonation. |
Vaas is losing to Neku, who lost to Laharl, who lost to Vyse, who lost to everyone. lolz --- http://zerosignal620.wordpress.com/ The photograph reflects, every streetlight a reminder; nightswimming deserves a quiet night |
Neku 5179 Catherine 5235 56 vote differential. --- Warning, the self-destruct system has been activated, all personnel should evacuate immediately, 5 minutes to detonation. |
Come on Neku. Keep it close for that last update victory! |
ZenOfThunder posted... Whoa, 2K tweeted for Booker Despite that Twitter account having 135358 followers, none of the poll updates for that match showed any evidence that Booker gained any noticeable amount of percentage. So the tweet had absolutely no effect on the trends here. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
I
take full credit for Catherine gaining so many votes. For the first
time in the contest, I phoned my brother across the country and had him
vote. So one of those votes is totally due to my influence. --- **R.O.B.A.Z.O.I.D** |
What the hell is happening in this match? --- XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak |
Qwaar posted... What the hell is happening in this match? Two characters with an exactly 50/50 matchup. --- *shrug* |
ChenKenichiFan posted... Try to think outside the numbers, KH. Envision the front page with that stupid looking smiling rat plastered between two Square characters from the same game. He's gonna stand out way more than Blue did, and he's gonna have the Nintendo fanbase more united. I felt pretty good about Pikachu a month ago and feel better now. I used this kind of stand-out thinking for Pac > Drake and now I'm an unwitting advertisement for poorly-thought out Randian politics! I believe in STF, but it simply may not be enough with the strength difference we're talking about. If Mewtwo can topple Vincent or at least give him a scare and Squirtle rolls Dante then sure, I'll feel worlds better. But if Vincent skates by without a challenge and Dante blasts Squirtle I'll be ready to pretty much throw in the towel. --- www.dudewheresmyfreedom.com Proud to share the same beliefs as SmartMuffin |
ChenKenichiFan posted... I figured Neku still had the edge. I believe even in summer (and even on weekends, though to an even smaller degree), we still see traditional day trends in diluted forms. More Americans start to vote in the poll around this time. Here were the trend charts for the last 2 continent polls: https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AgBWiYjlMLwYdDh2UEllOGhORXZ3emdweXlya2QxZVE Personally, I prefer the trends from the 2010 continent poll over the ones from the 2012 poll. I don't know how relevant the trends from a weekend continent poll are when dealing with a weekday poll during the summer. Who knows, the trends from a weekday continent poll during the summer could be slightly different than a weekend continent poll. But in both continent polls, North America's trends from 12:00 PM to 6:00 PM were very consistent. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
Karma Hunter posted... ChenKenichiFan posted...Try to think outside the numbers, KH. Envision the front page with that stupid looking smiling rat plastered between two Square characters from the same game. He's gonna stand out way more than Blue did, and he's gonna have the Nintendo fanbase more united. I felt pretty good about Pikachu a month ago and feel better now. Mewtwo and Squirtle win, Pikachu chokes to allow Blue to make the final 9 POKEFEAR |
Yes, keep going Catherine. No more going backwards now I hope. --- http://myanimelist.net/animelist/swordz9 |
I
don't know what "impressive" has to do with it, I'm not critiquing her
performance I'm pointing out that the entire poll bar 12:45-14:45 was
Kerrigan either stalling or winning with a net win in her favour, the
other two hours was a +650 missile massacre which not coincidentally had
an active /v/ thread for its duration. In any close match that'll
decide the outcome. Sure 4chan decided a close match slightly in Kerrigan's favour where both characters had 37% of the vote, but if that is what it takes for them to make a difference then they are not much of a factor. They may decide close matches, but they are no where near unbeatable. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 43/54 Today's Picks: Samus and Vaas |
What kind of strength difference are
we talking about, exactly? Pikachu scored 46.5% directly on Crono the
only time they've met, and the two entities - Chrono Trigger and Pokemon
- seem to have drifted in different directions since then. Remember
that Crono has already lost 1v1 to a Pokemon, and whether people like to
admit it or not, Pokemon is a strange, squirmy contest force that can
fluctuate in strength like crazy. We've already seen it happen from RBY
and from at least three different Pokemon. Pikachu just has too much in
his favor and the fanbase ain't gonna let him drop this. I'll give Crono
a low but realistic chance, and the only reason I'm giving him that is
because the CT trio actually looked alright in Round 1. --- Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) http://i.imgur.com/NQTthNf.jpg |
nooo neku i was almost smart --- ~FFDragon. (at Work !!) The Cream of Resident Evil Fanboyism. |
First hour: Neku +25 Second hour: Catherine +73 Third hour: Neku +5 Fourth hour: Catherine +6 --- We are living our lives Abound with so much information |
Gah, Neku can't let this get above 100. --- XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak |
I'm not sure Neku will ever get closer than this. --- Hey I just met you, and this is crazy, but you have died of dysentery. |
ChenKenichiFan posted... What kind of strength difference are we talking about, exactly? Pikachu scored 46.5% directly on Crono the only time they've met, and the two entities - Chrono Trigger and Pokemon - seem to have drifted in different directions since then. Remember that Crono has already lost 1v1 to a Pokemon, and whether people like to admit it or not, Pokemon is a strange, squirmy contest force that can fluctuate in strength like crazy. We've already seen it happen from RBY and from at least three different Pokemon. Pikachu just has too much in his favor and the fanbase ain't gonna let him drop this. I'll give Crono a low but realistic chance, and the only reason I'm giving him that is because the CT trio actually looked alright in Round 1. L Block is the only reason Pikachu got so close to Crono. *I* voted for Pikachu in that match to get rid of the Block. Crono also scored 58% on Pikachu in the very next round, and I'll buy a ton more of Vincent hurting Crono than Samus being able to SFF Pikachu. Pikachu isn't as good as people give him credit for. He gets brackets practically rigged in his favor and is just waiting to be exposed. --- www.dudewheresmyfreedom.com Proud to share the same beliefs as SmartMuffin |
16 more damn votes to break the barrier...come on..... --- Drop it to the floor... |
Guys,
a poll from 2008 means nothing now. Chrono Trigger has lost ground (in
terms of popularity) since then while one can argue Pokemon has gained
ground over the past 5 or so years. --- Drop it to the floor... |
And there's the Neku cut! Great match so far! kinsho3 posted... Guys, a poll from 2008 means nothing now. Chrono Trigger has lost ground (in terms of popularity) since then while one can argue Pokemon has gained ground over the past 5 or so years. Yep, just look at how much ground Pikachu gained in the 5 years before that <3 --- Harmony is peace. Peace is unity. Unity is harmony. I tell this to the King Nook. He ask me to leave. |
It took MGS2/SotC 4.5 hours for an entrant to build the lead to 100. Two more updates! --- http://i.imgur.com/a4GuDV3.gif |
this
is a ridiculously good match. if this was between two beloved entities
(say, Chrono Trigger and Pokemon) the stats topic would be exploding --- Leafs / Raptors / Blue Jays / TFC / Argos / Tottenham We'll get 'em next year. |
People don't seem to grasp how far Pikachu would have to come to beat Crono straight up even from 2010.
The rat only scored 61% on Commander Shepard, who while certainly had
improved from the last contest is hardly saying much; the guy got doubled by Magus & Sandbag. I was expecting a big CT drop in the last three years and some Pokeboosting, that's why I took Pikachu > Crono, but I even did that only with keeping in mind that Magus was going to be in that match. Pokemon is not just 'randomly' fluctuating. You're ignoring the context of the matches it's been in - the concerted effort to kill L Block, going up against Sprite Snake, the release of HG/SS. --- www.dudewheresmyfreedom.com Proud to share the same beliefs as SmartMuffin |
I
don't think it's a coincidence that one of the big stories of each of
the last three contests has been RBY-era Pokemon going crazy (GOTD
excepted, since there was no RBY involved, and you could include Pika
> L-Block for 2008 too if you wanted). --- We are living our lives Abound with so much information |
Let's
be fair to Shepard - Mass Effect went from losing badly to Left 4 Dead
in a poll with three first-person games to giving Portal a very
respectable match (which went on to give the same to RE4). I feel that
one of the most comparable characters to Shepard is Drake, and he went
from a CATS-crushing to winning matches. --- Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) http://i.imgur.com/NQTthNf.jpg |
Comparing
2008 Shepard to 2010 Shepard is a bad idea. Shepard only had one game
back in 2008. In 2010, ME2 was already released when Shepard had his
first match. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
Using ME Shepard is like using Uncharted Nathan Drake, it's a bad idea, might as well use 2002 Pikachu. Using a constant Lloyd Pikachu gets 34.99% on Snake, as a comparison Squall got 40.83% (or Pikachu gets 42.85% on Squall) --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 43/54 Today's Picks: Samus and Vaas |
+35
votes for Catherine now. Neku will either get close to zero before
collapsing again, or take the lead and get close to 100 before
collapsing again. --- Harmony is peace. Peace is unity. Unity is harmony. I tell this to the King Nook. He ask me to leave. |
And
I stress the Mass Effect comparison because games are less likely to
fluctuate in strength than characters, yet Mass Effect the game
seemingly grew much stronger in a two-year period. The sequel was so
well received that it made the original notably more popular around
here, which indicates that it did wonders for Shepard. I still think
Shep's R1 performance is one of the best so far and that my Aeris
prediction in R2 is busto. --- Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) http://i.imgur.com/gdl8lcn.jpg |
ChenKenichiFan posted... Let's be fair to Shepard - Mass Effect went from losing badly to Left 4 Dead in a poll with three first-person games to giving Portal a very respectable match (which went on to give the same to RE4). I feel that one of the most comparable characters to Shepard is Drake, and he went from a CATS-crushing to winning matches. Shepard did boost significantly. I'm not calling for Pikachu to get crushed by Magus. But he keeps getting excuse after excuse after f***ing excuse. He has yet to prove his true contest worth. That 46.5% on Crono in 2008 came just after Pikachu had barely broken 55% on Ike in that very same contest. He's just a little over Fox based on his percentage on Lloyd this year (to be perfectly equitable he's equal with Link if you use Big Daddy but... yeah). Even if you call for a Lloyd boost, how many characters are you going to start taking him over? Even if Pikachu ends up crumpling in a match next round tailor-made for him to win, people will keep giving him excuses. He's not Charizard and never will be. --- www.dudewheresmyfreedom.com Proud to share the same beliefs as SmartMuffin |
DoctorJimmy133 posted... +35 votes for Catherine now. Neku will either get close to zero before collapsing again, or take the lead and get close to 100 before collapsing again. I think this will be the case for the next 2 hours. --- http://i.imgur.com/32RNLnc.gif |
ChenKenichiFan posted... Pikachu scored 46.5% directly on Crono the only time they've met C'mon, yo, you know better than this! Surely you remember the concerted effort of save_us.rat! --- http://i52.tinypic.com/2zfiu09.gif http://i54.tinypic.com/10729w2.gif |
ChenKenichiFan posted... It took MGS2/SotC 4.5 hours for an entrant to build the lead to 100. Two more updates! ahh, SOTC beating MGS4 and MGS2. What a great tournament that was. --- http://s19.postimage.org/aosug5mrn/Persona4.png |
Karma Hunter posted... ChenKenichiFan posted...Let's be fair to Shepard - Mass Effect went from losing badly to Left 4 Dead in a poll with three first-person games to giving Portal a very respectable match (which went on to give the same to RE4). I feel that one of the most comparable characters to Shepard is Drake, and he went from a CATS-crushing to winning matches. so what's the excuse when a Pokemon rally puts Pikachu over 50% :P |
How's
he supposed to prove it? He did well enough in 2008 to stop L-Block
(the board considered him a hero) and made Snake look lulzy in 2010. His
only "bad" match from recent memory is against Shepard, and again,
we're still not sure where Shep stands. If Shep beats Aeris easily, that
61% Pika-win suddenly looks really good, I'd say. --- Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif |
1337gamerpr0 posted... so what's the excuse when a Pokemon rally puts Pikachu over 50% :P uhhhhhh is this a serious question --- http://i.imgur.com/M7vKB.gif |
I will literally account bet anyone with repute that Pikachu does not get 50% in that match. --- www.dudewheresmyfreedom.com Proud to share the same beliefs as SmartMuffin |
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