Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1093

#51 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/4/2013 9:29:03 PM | message detail
Far Cry 3 is a far cry away (LMFAO) from Borderlands on this site, so I'd imagine Handsome Jack is stronger.
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#52 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 8/4/2013 9:29:51 PM | message detail
Exactly. Borderlands 2 was our GotY and Jack was still uber-fodder. So if Vaas plays a similar role in FC3, then he's going to be uber uber uber-fodder.
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#53 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/4/2013 9:31:26 PM | message detail
Sandbag looking pretty bad, Samus may break 70%
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#54 | Pizzaknight | Posted 8/4/2013 9:35:49 PM | message detail | (edited)
People were worried about Samus laying the SFF hammer hard enough on Sandbag so that Clarke could advance?

Now, I'm starting to jokingly think to myself that Samus might be SFFing Clarke even harder!

APF (Armored Protagonist Factor), anyone?

Protip: Both characters are actually Samus.

Also see: Master Chief
#55 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/4/2013 9:34:55 PM | message detail
Xuxon posted...
Catherine got 27% on Sonic

Neku's projected for 26% on Dante

seems fairly obvious


Rivalry Rumble percentages don't mean anything in terms of Character Battles! They can only be compared to each other, and you can make vague connections if you know exactly how the "rival" should affect the protagonist. Like, a "good rivalry" was thought to be better than the sum of its parts, whereas an "anchor" of an antagonist would make a protagonist underperform. So I was at least able to expect Wolf's bad performance because Fox/Wolf vs. Ryu/Ken (obvious "good rivalry") was far more lopsided than expectations for a 1v1 between Fox and Ryu whereas Fox/Wolf vs Yuna/Seymour (Seymour being an obvious "anchor") was fairly close to the X-stat expectations for a Fox vs. Yuna 1v1.

Catherine's match? Nothing to go by. Both she and her rival were making their contest debuts, so there's nothing to compare it to, and besides the "common belief" was that Eggman was going to weaken Sonic a bit.
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#56 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/4/2013 9:34:55 PM | message detail
All characters are Samus.
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#57 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/4/2013 9:35:27 PM | message detail
Pizzaknight posted...
People were worried about Samus laying the SFF hammer on Sandbag so that Clarke could advance?

Now, I'm starting to jokingly think to myself that Samus might be SFFing Clarke instead!

APF (Armored Protagonist Factor), anyone?

Protip: Both characters are actually Samus.

Also see: Master Chief


I figured that out as soon as I saw the match pic!
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#58 | Sorozone | Posted 8/4/2013 9:37:42 PM | message detail
Eh, I think the vote-in poll is a better indicator for Catherine rather than her actual match.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4481

Still pretty confident in her.
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#59 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 8/4/2013 9:39:14 PM | message detail
I made that Catherine/Katherine pic

I think I even used fanart of Katherine to get a good sexy face in there

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/rivals/rivals-04.jpg

I practically had to remake the symbol in the middle from scratch, too

and that's when I figured out how to use the puppet warp tool to turn the C into a K

THOSE WERE THE DAYS

THE PICSMITH GLORY DAYS WHERE EVERY ROUND WAS FREEFORM
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#60 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/4/2013 9:40:10 PM | message detail
Uh oh, I just did some poll research and found out that Catherine (the actual game) has never been in a GameFAQs poll. No GotY categories, no "which of these upcoming games are you most excited for" polls, no nothin. The C/Katherines did quite well in both their Rivalry Rumble polls (the vote-ins and against Sonic), but this is a whole different ballgame. With absolutely zero poll presence for the game, I wonder if it might not be as well-known as I thought.
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#61 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/4/2013 9:41:31 PM | message detail
Vote totals have really dropped off quite a bit since the first week of the contest.

Average vote totals for the first 13 night matches - 26925
Average vote totals for the last 13 night matches - 25148

Average vote totals for the first 13 day matches - 32056
Average vote totals for the last 13 day matches - 29419


During the Rivalry Rumble, the first half of round 1 had better vote totals than the second half of round 1.
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#62 | superange128 | Posted 8/4/2013 9:42:27 PM | message detail | (edited)
http://www.gamefaqs.com/ps3/605302-catherine
http://www.gamefaqs.com/xbox360/605301-catherine

Catherine at least has 1300 users on the site who use MyGames who have played it


Though of course
http://www.gamefaqs.com/ds/935689-the-world-ends-with-you

TWEWY has 3000+ and they still don't do well but generally handheld only games dont do well unless its older Pokemon
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#63 | Sorozone | Posted 8/4/2013 9:46:02 PM | message detail | (edited)
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Uh oh, I just did some poll research and found out that Catherine (the actual game) has never been in a GameFAQs poll. No GotY categories, no "which of these upcoming games are you most excited for" polls, no nothin. The C/Katherines did quite well in both their Rivalry Rumble polls (the vote-ins and against Sonic), but this is a whole different ballgame. With absolutely zero poll presence for the game, I wonder if it might not be as well-known as I thought.


This is why I feel the vote-in poll is impressive. Catherine/Katherine may garner some crazy joke votes(but honestly are you gonna joke vote over Hitler?). I'm going to guess that people actually knew who they were.
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#64 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 8/4/2013 9:44:16 PM | message detail
Catherine, surprisingly, shares fanbases with fighting game characters. For a few months the multiplayer was streamed at major fighting game tournaments as a pseudo-joke that turned into actual tournaments once they realized it brought a huge spike in viewers. A bunch of diehard fighting game fans ended up buying the game because of it.

It died off after a while, but it still crops up on some fighting game channels. It's weird how fanbase crossovers happen like that.
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#65 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/4/2013 9:45:50 PM | message detail
Vote totals have really dropped off quite a bit since the first week of the contest.

I've noticed it too, people are losing interest and are less likely to come every day, hopefully that changes in the second round now that most of the heavy fodder and fodder matches are gone.
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#66 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/4/2013 9:49:11 PM | message detail
Vaas won't win. His game's too new and...wait, that match pic actually does look white! His profile pic on Meet the Battlers (which also appears on the poll page itself) makes him look Hispanic, so I thought RacistFAQs might come into play, but that match pic makes things somewhat better.

But either way, the very fact that it's Neku encourages me. First, there was a fodder named Vyse. He debuted by facing Donkey Kong and putting up a worse percentage than Bub had the previous year. He returned for his second appearance, got an 8-seed against a 9-seed making his first appearance, and managed a win. That 9-seed was Laharl.

Laharl was given more bad seeds, and continually lost matches. While it could be argued that he might've gotten a "good seed" in 2008--seriously, Dante was the obvious highest seed in that fourpack but it's anyone's guess who #2 was--it wasn't until 2010 that he was finally, indisputably, the high seed in a match. An 8-9 match, just like the one he'd lost to Vyse six years earlier, only now he was the veteran making his fifth appearance against a lower seed in only his second, and as a veteran, he won. That 9-seed? Neku Sakuraba.

Now Neku is the high seed in the match, and he has the most Character Battle experience as this is his third Character Battle and even if you count Rivalry Rumble, it's only Catherine's second. The chain of "paying your dues" continues. If Neku wins here, I can all but guarantee you that the next time we get a 1v1 character battle with 16-character divisions, Catherine will manage to land an 8-seed and will draw a 9-seed with less character battle experience than she has, and the chain will continue on still.
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#67 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/4/2013 10:00:18 PM | message detail | (edited)
charmander6000 posted...
Vote totals have really dropped off quite a bit since the first week of the contest.

I've noticed it too, people are losing interest and are less likely to come every day, hopefully that changes in the second round now that most of the heavy fodder and fodder matches are gone.


I don't think round 2 is going to provide any huge boost in vote totals for this contest. For each contest going back to the 2006 Character Battle, here were the average vote totals for each round:

http://i.imgur.com/UakNHiR.png

I didn't bother to include the Rivalry Rumble because that was a terrible contest (plus, only one round of 12-hour matches).

Character Battle 2006 was the last contest where you can see a clear trend of vote totals getting a significant boost from one round to the next round. In Character Battle 2007 and 2008, round 2 had slightly better vote totals than round 1. But in Character Battle 2007, there was a huge boost in vote totals after round 2 from the whole L-Block thing. And in Character Battle 2008, even round 3 had just slightly better vote totals than round 2.

Oddly enough, round 2 in Best Game Ever 2009 had lower vote totals than round 1, but the vote totals do improve quite a bit when we get to round 3.

For both Character Battle 2010 and Game of the Decade, round 2 vote totals were just slightly better than round 1. On the other hand, round 3 vote totals dropped off slightly compared to round 2. Round 4 and 5 provided a good boost in vote totals compared to round 3.

Conclusion: Round 2 in this contest will have an extremely small boost in vote totals compared to round 1, going by the previous contests since 2007.
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#68 | creativename | Posted 8/4/2013 10:13:49 PM | message detail
Just saW a Leon post from last topic -

Also, just for the record, for those wondering how much of Wolf's (pathetic) percentage would to go Fox if Wolf weren't here.

I know this isn't going to be a perfect correlation, but the only real example we can draw from is the Battle Royal in 2006. When Sephiroth was eliminated, only about 70% of Seph voters jumped to Cloud (12% to Cloud, 3% to Snake, 2% to Link, approximately). Obviously that's a clear majority, but only 70% of Wolf voters jumping to Fox would still cause him to lose.


That's not really a good comparison IMO. The absolute worst beating Cloud has ever handed Seph 1v1 was 56%. The absolute best Wolf could ever do against Fox 1v1 is 25%...and that's being pretty optimistic for Wolf!

The degree of SFF probably correlates strongly to the degree of overlap. Considering Cloud/Seph probably have the least overlap for two characters from the same damn game(s) like that, 70% should be the absolute lowest number you're going to see for anything like that.

Fox/Wolf overlap would be substantially more than 70%.

Link/Ganon and Link/Zelda LFF would probably be close to 100%. And Fox is essentially Ganon-izing Wolf here. (I can use Ganon as a verb if I want!)
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#69 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 8/4/2013 10:34:36 PM | message detail | (edited)
On both leaderboards.

This is truly the end of days.

Luckily you will all be saved tomorrow when my Vaas pick comes back to haunt me. Not sure what I was thinking.
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#70 | LOLContests | Posted 8/4/2013 10:22:23 PM | message detail
I also want to add that in LFF situations, it's not always so much the 3rd/4th place characters stealing direct votes away from the others, but that an LFF situation just makes the characters being LFFed less popular. Sure some of Fox's 1v1 votes against Blue would come from Wolf, but also the presence of Wolf in the poll makes Fox less popular. You can see that plainly in 1v1s when SFF matches draw less votes. People that would otherwise vote Fox > Blue > Wolf or Fox > Wolf > Blue, see two Star Fox characters, and vote for the stand out third option instead.
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#71 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/4/2013 10:36:57 PM | message detail | (edited)
Reminds me of that time when Ryu H went from beating Riku and Roxas combined to losing to just Riku.

Of course, Solid Snake being there probably didn't do him any favors.
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#72 | Xuxon | Posted 8/4/2013 10:39:30 PM | message detail
SFF matches draw less votes because it's more likely that people aren't a fan of either and don't bother voting, not because of whatever that was
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#73 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/4/2013 11:13:32 PM | message detail
what is Samus doing, bleeding percentage like that
I guess she's not authorized to break 70%
#74 | MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/4/2013 11:58:35 PM | message detail
Really hard to judge who wins between Catherine/Neku. It's pretty much whether you think this site would accept a game like Catherine well. You may also want to think if TWEWY gained in popularity any since its last disappointing games contest showing. If it's still as popular as Persona 4, and KH3D didn't really make too much noise on this site, Neku could still just be weak.

I'm real sure Catherine > Juliet, though. Please no comparisons there.
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#75 | creativename | Posted 8/5/2013 12:04:47 AM | message detail
MegatokyoEd posted...
I still think Catherine has a fair chance.

She has legit reasons to be somewhat decent, unlike Juliet.

Yes, I have no idea why people are acting like the lack of a boobs pic hurts her. Catherine's games are actually popular around here. If she wins it will be because her games have good strength.

Catherine/Neku is still pretty much a toss-up.
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#76 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/5/2013 12:35:29 AM | message detail
So I take it this is supposed to be disappointing for Samus? When I first saw the poll results I thought "wow, Samus is getting a huge blowout!".

Also am I the only one who thinks that Samus is SFFing both Sandbag and Isaac?
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#77 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 8/5/2013 12:41:03 AM | message detail | (edited)
This is a completely expected result for Samus.

You can compare it to Link's match - Noble Nine Nintendo vs. weak Isaac vs. Nintendo joke character. Sandbag > Tingle, the other Isaac > this one.
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#78 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/5/2013 2:25:36 AM | message detail
Xuxon posted...
Catherine got 27% on Sonic

Neku's projected for 26% on Dante

seems fairly obvious


Not sure if serious.
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#79 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/5/2013 2:27:14 AM | message detail
creativename posted...
That's not really a good comparison IMO.


I never said it was a good comparison! I just said it's the only one we have!
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#80 | Achromatic | Posted 8/5/2013 2:27:32 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Xuxon posted...
Catherine got 27% on Sonic

Neku's projected for 26% on Dante

seems fairly obvious


Not sure if serious.


Some logic is better than no logic.

Mine is: Catherine is hot. Let's go with that!
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#81 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/5/2013 2:30:29 AM | message detail
No logic is better than bad logic!

As in, "Catherine is hot" isn't really logic, but I'd say that's better than cross-comparing with RR stats!
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#82 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/5/2013 2:32:51 AM | message detail
Also, Neku's going to be better now than he was in 2010. I know everyone forgets, but he was in the 3DS Kingdom Hearts game.

And more importantly, he's the top seed in the match! He would've beaten Laharl in 2010 if the seeds had been reversed!

...Maybe.
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#83 | Achromatic | Posted 8/5/2013 2:33:31 AM | message detail
Actually I am running under the theory that Neku is only capable of getting so many casual votes against a cute looking woman who shares the name of a game that sold six times as many copies as Neku's (and was a hit on GameFAQs and a badass looking dude. Let's see if that works out.
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#84 | jacko_vdz | Posted 8/5/2013 2:33:38 AM | message detail
Well Red/Blue got about 60% on Ryu/Ken, who got about 65% on Fox/Wolf, so that match never should of been in doubt!

RR stats confirmed legit.
#85 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/5/2013 2:35:11 AM | message detail
Pretty sure KH3D has outsold Catherine!
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#86 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/5/2013 2:37:36 AM | message detail
And TWEWY was as popular as Persona 4 the last time we had a Games Contest!

...Which probably isn't a strong argument for Neku, but Yu and Chie didn't do THAT badly, I guess.
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#87 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/5/2013 2:43:09 AM | message detail | (edited)
Anyway, trend chart from the day match:

Time | Fox | Blue | Wolf | Votes
0:05 | 43.19% | 50.09% | 6.73% | 565
1:00 | 41.81% | 50.50% | 7.69% | 4564
2:00 | 45.80% | 47.40% | 6.81% | 3496
3:00 | 44.40% | 48.27% | 7.32% | 3099
4:00 | 44.28% | 48.61% | 7.11% | 2769
5:00 | 44.96% | 47.04% | 8.01% | 2498
6:00 | 44.10% | 47.67% | 8.22% | 2383
7:00 | 44.96% | 47.46% | 7.59% | 2162
8:00 | 43.23% | 49.06% | 7.70% | 1973
9:00 | 43.99% | 47.73% | 8.28% | 1871
10:00 | 44.46% | 47.13% | 8.41% | 1795
11:00 | 42.72% | 50.29% | 6.99% | 1716
12:00 | 45.61% | 43.89% | 10.50% | 1629

Not sure what happened in that last hour there, but it's kinda weird. Fox and Wolf spike big time right after Blue has a 50%+ hour. That's really the only notable thing here.

X-Stats:

Pokemon Trainer Blue – 50.00%
Fox McCloud – 47.79%
Wolf O’Donnell – 13.86%

Blue's prediction percentage was 32.98%
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#88 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/5/2013 2:50:24 AM | message detail
Maybe people realized Fox lose anyway so they can vote for Wolf
Or it was some kinda crazy last minute rally of the Star Fox community
#89 | Achromatic | Posted 8/5/2013 2:55:00 AM | message detail | (edited)
LeonhartFour posted...
Pretty sure KH3D has outsold Catherine!


How sure are you of that, Leon? <_<.

600k versus 1.2m.

Actually Twewy sold around 600k too. Huh.

... Well this is going to be interesting.
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#90 | Achromatic | Posted 8/5/2013 2:55:50 AM | message detail
Okay Leon I've been convinced, switching to Neku.
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#91 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/5/2013 3:04:34 AM | message detail
Okay, Samus went down quite a bit while I was gone, but she seems to be on the rise again.

As of now, I'm tempted to say that Ridley and Samus haven't been hit by an Other M deboost, but who knows. I just expected that Samus would struggle to break 60% here, though I was probably giving too much credit to these chumps.

I still kinda think that Samus might be SFFing both of the other two characters however. It's not like Samus hasn't shown SFF dominance over fellow SSB characters before, as Ganondorf and Zelda can attest.

Could Samus SFF Fox or Captain Falcon in the same way?
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#92 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/5/2013 3:05:13 AM | message detail
Well, I'm glad I can convince someone of something I'm not that sure of myself!

I have Catherine in my bracket and Neku in my Expert, so I dunno.
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#93 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/5/2013 3:08:47 AM | message detail
I was mulling on Catherine/Neku for a long time, but seeing Neku looking like a Sora clone in the picture made me switch immediately.

But Vaas still owns, even if he is doomed to third place.
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#94 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/5/2013 3:11:54 AM | message detail
In hindsight, Samus probably isn't SFFing these guys. Isaac Clarke has reason to...

...okay I still believe Samus is SFFing Isaac, fine. But Isaac has all the makings of a weak character:

-Is only in games this site doesn't care for.
-Is another Generic McDude
-I've heard that even in his first game, it's hard to give a darn about him.

But then again all those are probably shady arguments. Samus SFFing him makes more sense to me.

And then Samus is SFFing Sandbag within the Smash fanbase.
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#95 | Achromatic | Posted 8/5/2013 3:21:56 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Well, I'm glad I can convince someone of something I'm not that sure of myself!

I have Catherine in my bracket and Neku in my Expert, so I dunno.


By "convince" see "Oh, that's pretty popular and I just realized neku LOOKS like he is in KH."
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#96 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/5/2013 6:57:48 AM | message detail
Achromatic posted...
LeonhartFour posted...
Pretty sure KH3D has outsold Catherine!


How sure are you of that, Leon? <_<.

600k versus 1.2m.

Actually Twewy sold around 600k too. Huh.

... Well this is going to be interesting.


Far Cry 3 outsold all of that combined. If only that actually meant a damn around here.

Also, it looks like Vaas got a raw deal on the day match, because over half of those sales were in Europe.
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#97 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/5/2013 7:01:35 AM | message detail
Neku is from a JRPG.He wins.
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#98 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/5/2013 7:01:46 AM | message detail
Match LVI: (6) Neku Sakuraba vs. (13) Vaas Montenegro vs. (22) Catherine

Previous Contest

Neku Sakuraba – 2010
43.68% against Laharl

Vaas Montenegro – N/A
N/A

Catherine – N/A
N/A

Analysis

This is the final match this round where I feel all three characters have a decent chance at winning the match which means this will be the final match where I will bank all three characters, it is all or nothing now. I personally have Vaas, but right now I feel anyone can win.

Neku is the only character that has participated in a character battle, but when your resume contains giving Laharl his first ever win you know he is not strong. Since then Neku has appeared in a non-main Kingdom Hearts game so there is the possibility that he is stronger now. Even then Neku could win based on 2010 strength it is not like you need much strength to win this match.

Vaas is essentially the poster boy for Far Cry 3 and is probably the most know out of the three among gamers. GameFAQs however does not cater to the average gamer so it is hard to tell how well known Far Cry 3 is around here. The only information we have is Far Cry 3 narrowly losing to Halo 4 in a game of the year poll, the same one where Borderlands 2 crushed.

Catherine is from a niche game whose rivalry was soundly beaten by Sonic and Dr. Robotnik. She is the board favourite, but I feel that is due to her TJF and her supporters on the board selling her hard. She can still win as her performance against Sonic and Dr. Robotnik was not completely terrible and TJF may be just enough to win here.

I have decided to go against my bracket a support Neku. With this much doubt it is usually best to go with proven fodder than unproven fodder. Unless Far Cry 3 turns out to have a decent play rate I can see Vaas getting crushed due to looking like a regular guy.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Vaas Montenegro > Neku Sakuraba and Catherine

charmander6000’s Prediction: Neku Sakuraba – 39.66%, Catherine – 36.47%, Vaas Montenegro – 23.87%
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#99 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/5/2013 7:08:10 AM | message detail
Man, my head is in a whirlwind of confusion and doubt... I think Neku's probably going to win, but I can't count Catherine out.
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#100 | ZFS | Posted 8/5/2013 7:12:18 AM | message detail
KH3D probably won't be a big deal. It didn't do as well as the real KH games, and it's on a handheld.
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