Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1093

#451 | swordz9 | Posted 8/5/2013 12:11:51 PM | message detail
#452 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/5/2013 12:12:57 PM | message detail
I figured Neku still had the edge. I believe even in summer (and even on weekends, though to an even smaller degree), we still see traditional day trends in diluted forms. More Americans start to vote in the poll around this time.
---
http://i.imgur.com/a4GuDV3.gif
#453 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/5/2013 12:15:09 PM | message detail
Are people seriously looking to call this match one way or the other right now
---
www.dudewheresmyfreedom.com
Proud to share the same beliefs as SmartMuffin
#454 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/5/2013 12:15:58 PM | message detail
Yes.

I bet you my left testicle that Neku wins
---
A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
#455 | Kibago | Posted 8/5/2013 12:16:15 PM | message detail
so many stalls
---
Leafs / Raptors / Blue Jays / TFC / Argos / Tottenham
We'll get 'em next year.
#456 | --Smurf-- | Posted 8/5/2013 12:16:38 PM | message detail
People underestimate just how much the /v/ rallies affect these close matches with low votals. Missle lost 9 freaking hours of his match to Kerrigan and still won by nearly 500 because the 1000+ votes /v/ pushed into him during that 3 hour window. Kerrigan was cutting consistently every other time.
Catherine being the overwhelming choice of theirs only able to do this during their really bodes very badly for her. Neku was coasting away with it before they got involved and he will again now that they've died down. Catherine needed a few hundred votes of a lead out of that spell.
---
Smurf, the cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
#457 | Lopen | Posted 8/5/2013 12:17:11 PM | message detail
Well I mean Catherine is still winning in the US so you need more than just "less Europeans vote" you need a legit US trend shift

I think Neku should get it though. But most of his damage probably comes around 6pm EST- 8pm EST since that's when the "ASV" (after work vote?) seems to be happening this contest I think all he's going to do then is slowly chip away/extend his lead ala Protoman/Ike.
---
No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#458 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/5/2013 12:19:13 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
TJF isn't gonna mean nearly as much in an all-female battle, especially when one of the other females (Tharja) is clearly animated with beauty and sexuality in mind. Juliet may have won a match against Vaas and Handsome Jack, but against Tharja, her advantages were mitigated.


True. But Tharja's not exactly strong, either - what can you expect from a minor FE character, after all?
---
"Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
#459 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/5/2013 12:19:39 PM | message detail
Kerrigan didn't exactly do much after the rally, cutting 250 votes in 8 hours is not impressive.
---
BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 43/54 Today's Picks: Samus and Vaas
#460 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/5/2013 12:20:53 PM | message detail
Yep...

This is looking over
---
A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
#461 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/5/2013 12:20:58 PM | message detail
I find it funny that Neku can go up .09% and Vaas still goes up in percentage as well.
---
BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 43/54 Today's Picks: Samus and Vaas
#462 | Lopen | Posted 8/5/2013 12:21:01 PM | message detail
Then again maybe I'm wrong on that! Another 24 vote cut!
---
No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#463 | Surskit | Posted 8/5/2013 12:24:38 PM | message detail
Man, you guys have called this match over in like 5 different occasions now. Just sit back and enjoy the match!
---
.-#Elements of Water#-.
#464 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 8/5/2013 12:25:38 PM | message detail
Lead change incoming... maybe...
---
Bracket score: 47 / Expert score: 216
#465 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/5/2013 12:26:40 PM | message detail
In any match this close there's going to be some big updates going in each direction. Best not to go crazy every time. When one of them can actually put together a 100 vote lead we can start worrying about it being done.
---
We are living our lives
Abound with so much information
#466 | --Smurf-- | Posted 8/5/2013 12:28:37 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Kerrigan didn't exactly do much after the rally, cutting 250 votes in 8 hours is not impressive.


I don't know what "impressive" has to do with it, I'm not critiquing her performance I'm pointing out that the entire poll bar 12:45-14:45 was Kerrigan either stalling or winning with a net win in her favour, the other two hours was a +650 missile massacre which not coincidentally had an active /v/ thread for its duration. In any close match that'll decide the outcome.
---
Smurf, the cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
#467 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/5/2013 12:30:14 PM | message detail
If Kerrigan had ever seriously threatened Missile another /v/ thread woulda gone up and put her down. This isn't helping your case!
---
www.dudewheresmyfreedom.com
Proud to share the same beliefs as SmartMuffin
#468 | Surskit | Posted 8/5/2013 12:31:23 PM | message detail
I think the Missile rally is a little overrated; it didn't look like it drew that much attention.
---
.-#Elements of Water#-.
#469 | Sorozone | Posted 8/5/2013 12:31:35 PM | message detail
Florida is killing Catherine.
---
http://i.imgur.com/32RNLnc.gif
#470 | Sorozone | Posted 8/5/2013 12:33:10 PM | message detail | (edited)
Also the /v/ Catherine thread isn't getting much attention. The creator just seems to be casually bumping it with a new Catherine picture every once in a while, there is a little discussion about the game but that's about it.
---
#471 | --Smurf-- | Posted 8/5/2013 12:33:29 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
If Kerrigan had ever seriously threatened Missile another /v/ thread woulda gone up and put her down. This isn't helping your case!


They were trying to beat Crono so it wasn't ever their concern. Nobody was ever even mentioning Kerrigan in the thread. I'm sure they have a finite number of resources to use as well (interested people, proxies, vpns), those threads have cropped up a few times this contest and they all die after an hour or two. I guess we'll see if they come back to help Catherine but I don't think so. I think they've done what they could do for her and she's on her own now.
---
Smurf, the cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
#472 | hagankefs | Posted 8/5/2013 12:34:54 PM | message detail
Neku got 3.5 hours to make a lead....before Europe goes to bed.
I'm kinda surprised Catherine is winning in Canada, testosterone so OP today.
---
Inter
#473 | --Smurf-- | Posted 8/5/2013 12:35:39 PM | message detail
Surskit posted...
I think the Missile rally is a little overrated; it didn't look like it drew that much attention.


Had over 200 replies the time I took this and it was still going at that stage.
http://img.imgcake.com/Smurf/vrallypngde.png
---
Smurf, the cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
#474 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/5/2013 12:35:46 PM | message detail
RySenkari posted...
How's the ASV been lately? I know more and more schools are starting early in August, would it be enough to give Neku a surge or will we have to get deeper into the month for it to start happening?


I am not expecting any kind of ASV trends until at least August 19th. Even then, the week of August 19th to August 23rd will have very diluted ASV trends if we do get ASV trends during that week. The week of August 26th to August 30th should have normal ASV trends, I imagine.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#475 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 8/5/2013 12:36:12 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
#476 | BlackMetalex | Posted 8/5/2013 12:37:46 PM | message detail
Other way Neku >_>
#477 | raytan7585 | Posted 8/5/2013 12:38:21 PM | message detail
go away kiddies
---
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=baUY9LFlYh0 - KokorokokoroKOKOROkokoROKokoro-chan iu na
http://myanimelist.net/animelist/raytan7585
#478 | paulg235 | Posted 8/5/2013 12:38:52 PM | message detail
Neku is probably going to win this by 300 or so.
---
The Gamer In Me
"Ike and Ash & Co. saw a Yoshi and didn't catch it." - Mer telling us his dream.
#479 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/5/2013 12:40:40 PM | message detail
Catherine's not getting any sort of strong rally from /v/ here, considering Neku's been cutting for the past hour and still has yet to take the lead.

This....is a damn good match.
---
Drop it to the floor...
#480 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/5/2013 12:41:42 PM | message detail
If only she had the boobs.

The boobs would be the difference maker
---
A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
#481 | Osfan | Posted 8/5/2013 12:42:34 PM | message detail
This thought just occurred to me... if we get a Round 3 matchup between Pikachu, Sora, and Blue who is going to win the ASV? >_> That would be sprite round too
#482 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/5/2013 12:44:15 PM | message detail
Of course Catherine, being an honorary fighting game, is dominating Cali.
---
Demyx is better than Axel.
http://www.last.fm/user/crazydom
#483 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/5/2013 12:44:39 PM | message detail
Sora, it's always Sora. It doesn't matter either, Pikachu/Sora/Blue would be an absolute slaughter for Sora; Pokemon would get embarrassed.
---
www.dudewheresmyfreedom.com
Proud to share the same beliefs as SmartMuffin
#484 | nkansas13 | Posted 8/5/2013 12:45:48 PM | message detail
Is there even an ASV during summer vacation when there are very few school-age kids on the site anyway?
---
Hey I just met you, and this is crazy, but you have died of dysentery.
#485 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 8/5/2013 12:45:57 PM | message detail
Osfan posted...
This thought just occurred to me... if we get a Round 3 matchup between Pikachu, Sora, and Blue who is going to win the ASV? >_> That would be sprite round too


That's what I have in my bracket with Sora progressing. I feel dirty about it though. I think Crono will pull through against Pikachu.
---
Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time
#486 | Sorozone | Posted 8/5/2013 12:47:22 PM | message detail
Nice gain by Catherine.

Yeah I have Sora progressing because of Pika/Blue, but I fear I may have overestimated Pikachu and Crono is gonna pull it out.
---
http://i.imgur.com/32RNLnc.gif
#487 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/5/2013 12:47:45 PM | message detail
ShatteredElysium posted...
Osfan posted...
This thought just occurred to me... if we get a Round 3 matchup between Pikachu, Sora, and Blue who is going to win the ASV? >_> That would be sprite round too


That's what I have in my bracket with Sora progressing. I feel dirty about it though. I think Crono will pull through against Pikachu.


if you have Sora winning the division, you should probably root for Pikachu over Crono
#488 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/5/2013 12:49:53 PM | message detail
Lopen posted...
Well I mean Catherine is still winning in the US so you need more than just "less Europeans vote" you need a legit US trend shift

I think Neku should get it though. But most of his damage probably comes around 6pm EST- 8pm EST since that's when the "ASV" (after work vote?) seems to be happening this contest I think all he's going to do then is slowly chip away/extend his lead ala Protoman/Ike.


Actually, I did propose the idea of an After Work Vote several months ago. Here is all of the known information on the possibility of an "After Work Vote"

Official name - After Work Vote
Shorthand acronym - AWV
Time period - 5:30 PM to 10:00 PM (EST)
Overall amount of evidence to support this - Extremely limited (only 2 non-contest polls so far)
Current evidence to support an After Work Vote - https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AgBWiYjlMLwYdFpLZ1BsSllqdTQ0Yl91T0xsZ3ZYUUE&gid=1

"Going to school" immediately started doing better when the ASV started, while "Going to work" collapsed at the same. But in a bizarre, unexpected twist, "Going to work" started doing better after 5:30 PM while "Going to school" dropped off again.

At 2:27 PM, "Going to work" had a maximum lead of 1064 over "Going to school". Then the ASV kicked in and "Going to school" was pulling off a comeback here. Early in the ASV, it seemed like "Going to school" was easily on pace to complete the comeback. But around 5:30 PM, "Going to work" was stalling "Going to school".
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#489 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/5/2013 12:50:30 PM | message detail
I feel extremely uncomfortable about my Pikachu > Crono pick. Fox scored 48% on Blue with Wolf in the match, and Wolf got absolutely fodderized. It looks like Pikachu might have to be close to or equal to Crono for him to win if Magus gets that done to himself.

I think that's absolutely ludicrous and I have Mewtwo > Vincent.
---
www.dudewheresmyfreedom.com
Proud to share the same beliefs as SmartMuffin
#490 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 8/5/2013 12:51:35 PM | message detail
#491 | superange128 | Posted 8/5/2013 12:51:46 PM | message detail
well I think the % of people who care about Magus more than Fox would be musch higher than the peopel who like Wolf over Fox
---
Want any VNs pre-patched? PM me. List of VNs can be found by clicking on my username.
#492 | Sorozone | Posted 8/5/2013 12:52:00 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
I feel extremely uncomfortable about my Pikachu > Crono pick. Fox scored 48% on Blue with Wolf in the match, and Wolf got absolutely fodderized. It looks like Pikachu might have to be close to or equal to Crono for him to win if Magus gets that done to himself.

I think that's absolutely ludicrous and I have Mewtwo > Vincent.


Yeah that scares me too. Magus is going to be in for a beat down, Pikachu simply doesn't have the strength to win. I think he'll keep it within 3-4%, but I'm regretting that pick atm.
---
http://i.imgur.com/32RNLnc.gif
#493 | nkansas13 | Posted 8/5/2013 12:53:01 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
I feel extremely uncomfortable about my Pikachu > Crono pick. Fox scored 48% on Blue with Wolf in the match, and Wolf got absolutely fodderized. It looks like Pikachu might have to be close to or equal to Crono for him to win if Magus gets that done to himself.

I think that's absolutely ludicrous and I have Mewtwo > Vincent.


Wolf is garbage. Magus has placed really high in the x-stats before; he's way closer to Crono than Wolf is to Fox.
---
Hey I just met you, and this is crazy, but you have died of dysentery.
#494 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/5/2013 12:53:08 PM | message detail
Try to think outside the numbers, KH. Envision the front page with that stupid looking smiling rat plastered between two Square characters from the same game. He's gonna stand out way more than Blue did, and he's gonna have the Nintendo fanbase more united. I felt pretty good about Pikachu a month ago and feel better now.
---
Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
http://i.imgur.com/NQTthNf.jpg
#495 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 8/5/2013 12:53:24 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
I feel extremely uncomfortable about my Pikachu > Crono pick. Fox scored 48% on Blue with Wolf in the match, and Wolf got absolutely fodderized. It looks like Pikachu might have to be close to or equal to Crono for him to win if Magus gets that done to himself.

I think that's absolutely ludicrous and I have Mewtwo > Vincent.


Yeah, Last Place Factor is not only a thing but it's extremely powerful. I think Pikachu can still pull it off, but it'd be funny if Crono advanced and Blue squeaked by in round 3 due to there being no clear last place and Crono and Sora leeching eachother just enough.
---
If you believe in the Lord FE7 and you accept FE7 as the Savior of video games and are 100% proud of it, put this in your sig.
#496 | Sorozone | Posted 8/5/2013 12:55:26 PM | message detail
Catherine really starting to rise.
---
http://i.imgur.com/32RNLnc.gif
#497 | pronouncemyname | Posted 8/5/2013 12:55:29 PM | message detail
The only thing thats certain is Pikachu and Crono will be fairly close. If Pikachu were to pull the upset though, it'd be fun to watch the reactions.
#498 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 8/5/2013 12:55:52 PM | message detail
Yay, Catherine's looking good again
---
If you believe in the Lord FE7 and you accept FE7 as the Savior of video games and are 100% proud of it, put this in your sig.
#499 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 8/5/2013 12:56:07 PM | message detail
Take that Neku!
---
If you believe in the Lord FE7 and you accept FE7 as the Savior of video games and are 100% proud of it, put this in your sig.
#500 | Lt_Carter_Blake | Posted 8/5/2013 12:56:17 PM | message detail
Go Cath
---
I found the Origami Killer, everyone's happy, end of story. Have a nice trip back... Norman.