Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1092

#351 | ZinsanityCraze | Posted 8/4/2013 2:02:36 PM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
MegatokyoEd posted...
Vaas is going to get annihilated seeing how new western characters have done so far.


The problem is that the other new western characters were all up against noteworthy characters. This is Neku and Catherine we're talking about, one from an 8 year old DS RPG that sold 50k copies, and the other from a Japanese dating sim porno that only Board 8 has played.


Almost as cringe worthy as your standard LMS post. Good job.
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#352 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/4/2013 2:02:59 PM | message detail
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
Just reminding everyone (especially Turtle) that they were assuming that Wolf would be another Zero when it came to withstanding SFF. Obviously there must have been some other people who thought otherwise because the spread had Wolf fairly low, but nobody else thought that Wolf would be super-weak.

Seriously people. While actual character strengths were completely out of whack in Rivalry Rumble--I mean, Meat Boy/Dr. Fetus managed to hang 35% on Zidane/Kuja, and look how poorly Meat Boy did. There's only so much of that that you can attribute to Zidane/Kuja's awful pick/Mr. Game & Watch taking away some of Meat Boy's "looking ridiculous in the match pic to draw joke votes" factor--the one clear pattern we decided on was that having a "real rivalry" gave you an advantage over a pairing that was "not a real rivalry". Based on expectations for a 1v1 between Fox and the opposite "protagonist", Fox/Wolf massively underperformed against Ryu/Ken ("real rivalry") and did only a little better than expected against Yuna/Seymour ("not a real rivalry").

Now, this still doesn't prove that Wolf would be absolute fodder normally. But clearly Fox/Wolf wasn't perceived as a real rivalry. I suspect that the lack of decent Star Fox games in recent years (not counting the 3DS rerelease, we've only seen three games since SF64 came out 16 years ago, and IIRC only one of them was well-received) means that the Star Fox crew is drawing a lot more of their strength from Smash than they are from their own games. Now, that works fine for Fox, who's been in all three games--Captain Falcon's still a low midcarder, and he probably gets an even greater portion of his strength from the Smash series than Fox does--but for Wolf, who's only been in Brawl and is essentially a "Fox clone", it's awful.

(Also, Mega Man/Zero is a special case, because Zero's from the Mega Man X series, not Classic Mega Man. As awful as SFF matches generally are, the one match I still want to see is Mega Man/Mega Man X, because I really think that X can win that one and it would probably rate as a "shocking upset". I know that nobody takes "series polls" seriously as an indicator of contest results, but the Mega Man X series beating the Classic Mega Man series in the "What is your favorite Mega Man series" poll would explain those Mega Man/Zero results, which compared to most other results involving SFF matches and a Noble Niner are especially anomalous. I mean, forget about the fourway for a moment. The only times a Noble Niner has allowed a greater percentage in an SFF win (because of course, plenty of Noble Niners have allowed over 50% in SFF matches against Link) are the two Cloud-Sephiroth matches, the first Samus-Zelda match, and Mario-Charizard. Sephiroth is of course himself a Noble Niner, Zelda has the LoZ > Metroid series SFF working for her so that may be an rSFF scenario as well, and Charizard had all sorts of factors working in his favor. I mean, I guess you could count Vincent's 1v1 loss to Crono? But again, if you're using the Square connection to call that an SFF match, you've got FFVII > everything else series SFF making it a plausible rSFF scenario.)


Meat Boy is a kind of character that is supposed to lose it's strength very very fast as the years go by
It's going to be the same with Fire Emblem Awakening characters as I don't believe any of them will make the next contest
I also believe Kuja brought Zidane down (lol losing to Master Hand)
#353 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/4/2013 2:03:36 PM | message detail
Sorozone posted...
What the, 50K. Why are you spouting that nonsense? We already went over this, Catherine sold way more.

Learn to read plz
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#354 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/4/2013 2:04:21 PM | message detail
Did I ever tell you what the...definition of zinsanity, is?
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#355 | Sorozone | Posted 8/4/2013 2:04:25 PM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Sorozone posted...
What the, 50K. Why are you spouting that nonsense? We already went over this, Catherine sold way more.

Learn to read plz


Sorozone posted...
My bad read that wrong!


Learn to read plz
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#356 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/4/2013 2:05:48 PM | message detail | (edited)
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
MegatokyoEd posted...
Vaas is going to get annihilated seeing how new western characters have done so far.


The problem is that the other new western characters were all up against noteworthy characters. This is Neku and Catherine we're talking about, one from an 8 year old DS RPG that sold 50k copies, and the other from a Japanese dating sim porno that only Board 8 has played.


You may have a bit of a point there - it isn't just new Western characters who have flopped all contest, but new characters in general. And Vaas isn't the only one in that match who matches that description.

For all we know, this is Neku's time to catch DAT TOP OPTION and get himself into Round 2.
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#357 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/4/2013 2:04:34 PM | message detail
Yeah, learn to read. He was implying Catherine had worse sales than that!
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#358 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/4/2013 2:04:56 PM | message detail
Team Rocket Elite posted...
I don't remember anyone saying they thought Wolf would hold up well to SFF let alone Zero level.

Edit: Nevermind, I see where BlAcK TuRtLe said that.


That thinking is what made me pick Blue here, so I'm not complaining.
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#359 | Qwaar | Posted 8/4/2013 2:06:13 PM | message detail
I take it I'm screwed for picking Vaas to win.
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#360 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/4/2013 2:06:28 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Yeah, learn to read. He was implying Catherine had worse sales than that!


Obviously no one outside of Board 8 has played a game that sold 500k before it even launched in Europe.

Makes sense to me.
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#361 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/4/2013 2:07:46 PM | message detail
Angry Red Bird vs Catherine who wins
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#362 | Whiskey_Nick | Posted 8/4/2013 2:07:56 PM | message detail
we have 500k users on B8
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#363 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/4/2013 2:08:04 PM | message detail
Qwaar posted...
I take it I'm screwed for picking Vaas to win.


People always try to say that when they agree with one of my upsets, their bracket is screwed, but the proof is in the pudding. Top 10 Guru, almost Top 10 overall right now. Be nice if people showed a little respect around here.
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#364 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/4/2013 2:08:36 PM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Be nice if people showed a little respect around here.


You get what you give.
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#365 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/4/2013 2:08:52 PM | message detail
TheKoolAidShoto posted...
Angry Red Bird vs Catherine who wins


Bird easy. I think he definitely has a shot against Jill, though I'm starting to regret taking the upset in my bracket.
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#366 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/4/2013 2:10:10 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Be nice if people showed a little respect around here.


You get what you give.


More importantly, you give what you get
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#367 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/4/2013 2:10:23 PM | message detail
A year or two ago, I'd have figured Red Bird would be horrible fodder, my rationale being "it's GameFAQs, who even plays phone games?" Think I've grown a bit wiser since then and taken note of Angry Bird's ridiculous play rate. I'm sure just about everyone here has played it, and quite a few people have sunk their fair share of hours into the games. Couple that with the iconic look and I doubt he'll be too bad. I'd take him over Catherine.
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#368 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/4/2013 2:10:39 PM | message detail
I'm just going to type up the entire list of characters who have lost to characters that debuted in games released after 2009 (not counting characters who themselves fit the definition):

Tingle
Demi-Fiend
Chie Satonaka
Jak
Caim
Chester
Heavy
Poison
Thrall
Tommy Vercetti
Wander
Niko Bellic
Sarah Kerrigan
Kaim Argonar

Neku could probably beat all of these guys other than maybe Jak. Catherine is probably in the same boat.
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#369 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/4/2013 2:11:52 PM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
More importantly, you give what you get


Except it's completely untrue.

People would be more respectful to you if you would be more respectful to others. It's pretty simple. Don't complain that people don't respect you when you show little respect for differing opinions.
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#370 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/4/2013 2:14:04 PM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Qwaar posted...
I take it I'm screwed for picking Vaas to win.


People always try to say that when they agree with one of my upsets, their bracket is screwed, but the proof is in the pudding. Top 10 Guru, almost Top 10 overall right now. Be nice if people showed a little respect around here.


reminder that poster literally has Vincent beating Sonic Crono beating Pikachu and Cloud in the finals
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#371 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/4/2013 2:16:29 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Qwaar posted...
I take it I'm screwed for picking Vaas to win.


People always try to say that when they agree with one of my upsets, their bracket is screwed, but the proof is in the pudding. Top 10 Guru, almost Top 10 overall right now. Be nice if people showed a little respect around here.


reminder that poster literally has Vincent beating Sonic Crono beating Pikachu and Cloud in the finals


alright everyone assemble for Mewtwo>Vincent and Pikachu>Crono
#372 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/4/2013 2:17:24 PM | message detail
#373 | Achromatic | Posted 8/4/2013 2:22:00 PM | message detail
After seeing this I start to wonder how far Crono can drown Magus next round.

I will die if the final % of that is something like this current match <_<.
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#374 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/4/2013 2:23:37 PM | message detail
We've seen that voters are smart and are willing to abandon a lost cause to make sure their guy gets through. We're even seeing it here, albeit to no avail. I really doubt Fox gets 87% on Wolf 1-on-1.
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#375 | ZenOfThunder (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/4/2013 2:23:40 PM | message detail
Catherine was free on European PS+ for a month! She has that region locked down
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#376 | Qwaar | Posted 8/4/2013 2:24:40 PM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Qwaar posted...
I take it I'm screwed for picking Vaas to win.


People always try to say that when they agree with one of my upsets, their bracket is screwed, but the proof is in the pudding. Top 10 Guru, almost Top 10 overall right now. Be nice if people showed a little respect around here.


Did I miss something? I wasn't referring to anything you were saying, I just feel that I've made a bad call having Vaas win and was wondering if anyone agreed.
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#377 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 8/4/2013 2:57:11 PM | message detail
I don't believe in generic white guys

I am somewhat scared about Neku, though. Definitely not going for a full pick there.
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#378 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/4/2013 3:07:02 PM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Qwaar posted...
I take it I'm screwed for picking Vaas to win.


People always try to say that when they agree with one of my upsets, their bracket is screwed, but the proof is in the pudding. Top 10 Guru, almost Top 10 overall right now. Be nice if people showed a little respect around here.


You are not first,you know
You made mistakes and you will make more
Vaas winning is a mistake you are going to make
What next? You will say that you picked Sandbag>Samus and we MUST agree with your pick because you are in the top 10?
Iznotperfect did Sly>Lugia,you are not immune to stupid mistakes no matter how good you are
#379 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/4/2013 3:16:43 PM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Qwaar posted...
I take it I'm screwed for picking Vaas to win.


People always try to say that when they agree with one of my upsets, their bracket is screwed, but the proof is in the pudding. Top 10 Guru, almost Top 10 overall right now. Be nice if people showed a little respect around here.


You are not first,you know
You made mistakes and you will make more
Vaas winning is a mistake you are going to make
What next? You will say that you picked Sandbag>Samus and we MUST agree with your pick because you are in the top 10?
Iznotperfect did Sly>Lugia,you are not immune to stupid mistakes no matter how good you are


also, where is his expert challenge if he's so good
#380 | SubDeity | Posted 8/4/2013 3:16:54 PM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
LeonhartFour posted...
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Be nice if people showed a little respect around here.


You get what you give.


More importantly, you give what you get


LOL, what an entitled baby.
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#381 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/4/2013 3:25:33 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
Nanis23 posted...
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Qwaar posted...
I take it I'm screwed for picking Vaas to win.


People always try to say that when they agree with one of my upsets, their bracket is screwed, but the proof is in the pudding. Top 10 Guru, almost Top 10 overall right now. Be nice if people showed a little respect around here.


You are not first,you know
You made mistakes and you will make more
Vaas winning is a mistake you are going to make
What next? You will say that you picked Sandbag>Samus and we MUST agree with your pick because you are in the top 10?
Iznotperfect did Sly>Lugia,you are not immune to stupid mistakes no matter how good you are


also, where is his expert challenge if he's so good


Expert challenge is far more luck based, and you aren't punished by making a stupid pick in your bracket.

I'm not saying I'm perfect, but I see it all the time in this topic when I lay out an argument for a pick, or for a trend analysis, and the assclown brigade comes out of the woodwork to (incorrectly) try and shoot my argument down.
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#382 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/4/2013 3:31:43 PM | message detail
no one cares

stop bleating
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#383 | swordz9 | Posted 8/4/2013 3:32:31 PM | message detail
I can't see Vaas being anything other than last in that match. I could be wrong, but I think Catherine and Neku will have bigger fan bases on this site and he'll probably be pretty comfortably in last place.
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#384 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/4/2013 3:33:09 PM | message detail
Wow at Blue's performance here. Even if 100% of Wolf's votes were to go to Fox, Blue is still over 48% here, very impressive.

By the way, I called Red's ceiling being Crono-level back in 2009! Why didn't this strength show up in the 2010 contest with those Ocelot and MMX matches!?!

Looking at Yoblazer's scenarios, it looks like we are once again in the position of counting on Crono to make the contest interesting.
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#385 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/4/2013 3:34:23 PM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
Just reminding everyone (especially Turtle) that they were assuming that Wolf would be another Zero when it came to withstanding SFF. Obviously there must have been some other people who thought otherwise because the spread had Wolf fairly low, but nobody else thought that Wolf would be super-weak.

Seriously people. While actual character strengths were completely out of whack in Rivalry Rumble--I mean, Meat Boy/Dr. Fetus managed to hang 35% on Zidane/Kuja, and look how poorly Meat Boy did. There's only so much of that that you can attribute to Zidane/Kuja's awful pick/Mr. Game & Watch taking away some of Meat Boy's "looking ridiculous in the match pic to draw joke votes" factor--the one clear pattern we decided on was that having a "real rivalry" gave you an advantage over a pairing that was "not a real rivalry". Based on expectations for a 1v1 between Fox and the opposite "protagonist", Fox/Wolf massively underperformed against Ryu/Ken ("real rivalry") and did only a little better than expected against Yuna/Seymour ("not a real rivalry").

Now, this still doesn't prove that Wolf would be absolute fodder normally. But clearly Fox/Wolf wasn't perceived as a real rivalry. I suspect that the lack of decent Star Fox games in recent years (not counting the 3DS rerelease, we've only seen three games since SF64 came out 16 years ago, and IIRC only one of them was well-received) means that the Star Fox crew is drawing a lot more of their strength from Smash than they are from their own games. Now, that works fine for Fox, who's been in all three games--Captain Falcon's still a low midcarder, and he probably gets an even greater portion of his strength from the Smash series than Fox does--but for Wolf, who's only been in Brawl and is essentially a "Fox clone", it's awful.

(Also, Mega Man/Zero is a special case, because Zero's from the Mega Man X series, not Classic Mega Man. As awful as SFF matches generally are, the one match I still want to see is Mega Man/Mega Man X, because I really think that X can win that one and it would probably rate as a "shocking upset". I know that nobody takes "series polls" seriously as an indicator of contest results, but the Mega Man X series beating the Classic Mega Man series in the "What is your favorite Mega Man series" poll would explain those Mega Man/Zero results, which compared to most other results involving SFF matches and a Noble Niner are especially anomalous. I mean, forget about the fourway for a moment. The only times a Noble Niner has allowed a greater percentage in an SFF win (because of course, plenty of Noble Niners have allowed over 50% in SFF matches against Link) are the two Cloud-Sephiroth matches, the first Samus-Zelda match, and Mario-Charizard. Sephiroth is of course himself a Noble Niner, Zelda has the LoZ > Metroid series SFF working for her so that may be an rSFF scenario as well, and Charizard had all sorts of factors working in his favor. I mean, I guess you could count Vincent's 1v1 loss to Crono? But again, if you're using the Square connection to call that an SFF match, you've got FFVII > everything else series SFF making it a plausible rSFF scenario.)


Meat Boy is a kind of character that is supposed to lose it's strength very very fast as the years go by
It's going to be the same with Fire Emblem Awakening characters as I don't believe any of them will make the next contest
I also believe Kuja brought Zidane down (lol losing to Master Hand)


Speaking of FE, what's this mean for Lyndis? I think Rikku's in a position where she can't lose regardless, but...
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#386 | SubDeity | Posted 8/4/2013 3:35:26 PM | message detail
Expert challenge is far more luck based, and you aren't punished by making a stupid pick in your bracket.

How is it more luck-based and not simply more complex?
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#387 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/4/2013 3:35:38 PM | message detail
On second thought, a lot of this is probably Fox getting weaker from the Star Fox franchise being moribund for over a decade. He is top tier in SSBM, but Star Fox used to be big in itself.
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#388 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/4/2013 3:35:57 PM | message detail
"expert challenge is far more luck based"-BlAcK TuRtLe

LOL
#389 | MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/4/2013 3:39:31 PM | message detail
Dead Space doesn't seem too popular, and I'm not even sure if most people who've at least played the game know the guy's name is Isaac Clark.. he certainly doesn't seem immediately recognizable.

Sandbag sounds ideal for second.
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#390 | Sorozone | Posted 8/4/2013 3:41:08 PM | message detail
The problem is there isn't any good argument for Vaas. Catherine/Katherine did decent in the vote-in poll for Rivalry Rumble(lol), and Neku did OK against Laharl.

Somebody already brought Handsome Jack, and how he completely sucked, so if you are going to base Vaas on FC3 strength, you have to assume the same for Handsome Jack, in which Borderlands 2 destroyed FC3 in.

I mean, if you have something else, I'll be glad to hear it. Unless it's more sales crap and "LOL dating sim that only Board 8 plays".

Fodder is fodder, but I'd rather have established fodder in a contest setting, than someone completely new and the only strength you can gauge from it is GOTY polls and playrate polls. Because LOL Xenoblade characters and LOL Borderlands 2 characters.
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#391 | DonMaldini14 | Posted 8/4/2013 3:43:34 PM | message detail
Can anyone explain how Pac-Man lost to pretty boy from uncharted?
#392 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/4/2013 3:44:03 PM | message detail
Let me put it this way.

If you don't have [absurd upset here], you are an idiot and deserve to lose the contest. It's a complete and utter lock, and I know this because
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#393 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/4/2013 3:45:36 PM | message detail
Speaking of absurdity, what are the chances that Samus SFFs a bag of sand?
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#394 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 8/4/2013 3:46:40 PM | message detail
Although it's very possible that it could happen, it kinda makes me laugh thinking about Samus SFF'ing anyone.
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#395 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/4/2013 3:49:04 PM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
Speaking of absurdity, what are the chances that Samus SFFs a bag of sand?


Not very good, seeing that Metroid's pretty much always been on the wrong end of SFF...
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#396 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/4/2013 3:49:05 PM | message detail
Samus has actually SFFed both Ganondorf and Zelda a touch (though she's only 1 for 2 in the case of the latter). Normally, though, she's pretty impotent at it. Sandbag probably gets SFFed, though probably not terribly more than Sonic did to him.

(yes, Magus was just that awful)
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#397 | swordz9 | Posted 8/4/2013 3:49:59 PM | message detail
Catherine is totally going to get the dedicated Atlus fan vote.
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#398 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/4/2013 3:52:07 PM | message detail
How's Neku's day vote?
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#399 | -hotdogturtle-- | Posted 8/4/2013 3:52:54 PM | message detail
Do you think that Fox would be doing slightly better if he had this picture instead?

http://www.ssbwiki.com/images/b/bf/Fox_SSBM.jpg
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#400 | HaRRicH | Posted 8/4/2013 3:53:27 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
"expert challenge is far more luck based"-BlAcK TuRtLe

LOL


It's fine to debate whether the standard bracket-making procedure or Expert Challenge is the better way to have a contest, but more luck-based? Two things:

1) This is all luck-based in some way.
2) Expect Challenge allows you to get more information before making your final pick, which eliminates luck compared to the standard bracket. Would you rather pick who wins this nine-pack before the contest started, or the day before the match after seeing Game and Watch/Drake/Blue perform alongside nearly a hundred other matches first? Luck is still a factor, but let's not act like we're not more educated as we advance in a contest compared to before it begins.
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