Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1092

#51 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/4/2013 10:30:51 AM | message detail
Crono fans stuffed Lloyd to make Pikachu look bad
*grabs tinfoil hat*
#52 | tennisboy213 | Posted 8/4/2013 10:31:05 AM | message detail
The last 6 updates have gone:

cut
gain
big cut
stall
stall
cut
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#53 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/4/2013 10:31:19 AM | message detail
creativename posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
I mean depending on the level of Tales boost you're talking, Zero needs to be seriously concerned about Kratos Aurion! He's lost to Hayabusa in this format.

Why do you say this? In the most recent contest stats Zero is at like 30% while Kratos Aurion is under 20%. And the year Zero lost to Hayabusa, Kratos Aurion got doubled by Alucard.

Kratos Aurion could have boosted significantly, he's still no threat to Zero.


Kratos Aurion is significantly underrated because he goes through Ryu/Leon.
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#54 | RySenkari (Moderator) | Posted 8/4/2013 10:31:52 AM | message detail
Fox seems to have stopped the bleeding a little bit, my bracket might have some life in it yet.
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#55 | jacko_vdz | Posted 8/4/2013 10:31:59 AM | message detail
Wolf with those 12 vote updates.
#56 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/4/2013 10:32:45 AM | message detail
Fox is dead people Pokemon don't let characters do comebacks on them <_<
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#57 | Xuxon | Posted 8/4/2013 10:33:53 AM | message detail
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/4/2013 1:31:19 PM | #053
creativename posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
I mean depending on the level of Tales boost you're talking, Zero needs to be seriously concerned about Kratos Aurion! He's lost to Hayabusa in this format.

Why do you say this? In the most recent contest stats Zero is at like 30% while Kratos Aurion is under 20%. And the year Zero lost to Hayabusa, Kratos Aurion got doubled by Alucard.

Kratos Aurion could have boosted significantly, he's still no threat to Zero.


Kratos Aurion is significantly underrated because he goes through Ryu/Leon.

even with Leon's adjusted stats, which are pretty generous for Leon, Kratos is under 20
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#58 | ZenOfThunder (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/4/2013 10:34:14 AM | message detail
#59 | creativename | Posted 8/4/2013 10:35:10 AM | message detail
How does Ryu/Leon make Kratos Aurion underrated...? Even if Ryu for some reason overperformed on Leon, it wouldn't be by very much. Not enough to noticeably budge Kratos Aurion's numbers.
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#60 | spooky96 | Posted 8/4/2013 10:36:12 AM | message detail
Blue finally noticing something.
#61 | Xeybozn | Posted 8/4/2013 10:37:52 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Also, those of you making Blue v Fox 1v1 comparisons may want to absorb this little tidbit!

Based on Fox/Lloyd from last contest and Pikachu/Lloyd from this year, Pikachu gets 53% on Fox.

The other day I tried to figure out Charizard's pre-bandwagon strength using Charizard > L-Block > Isaac from 2010 and Snake > Isaac from this contest; Charizard ended up about as strong as Fox, too.

Then again, 2010 stats are so old at this point that they shouldn't be too reliable for this sort of thing.
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#62 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/4/2013 10:37:59 AM | message detail
tennisboy213 posted...
The last 6 updates have gone:

cut
gain
big cut
stall
stall
cut

And a huge gain that is only 1 vote away from peak
#63 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 8/4/2013 10:38:43 AM | message detail | (edited)
Everytime Fox boosts to get through, Blue just sends out Blastoise.

And are people really not counting on Blastoise pics in the future?
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#64 | creativename | Posted 8/4/2013 10:38:14 AM | message detail
Oh that's right, Leon got a crappy sprite vs. Ryu

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb8/cb8-108.jpg

Still, moving Leon up a couple points is barely going to affect Kratos.
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#65 | jacko_vdz | Posted 8/4/2013 10:38:16 AM | message detail
Nah wolf just DOUBLED his previous vote intake to 24.
#66 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/4/2013 10:38:25 AM | message detail
Xuxon posted...
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/4/2013 1:31:19 PM | #053
creativename posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
I mean depending on the level of Tales boost you're talking, Zero needs to be seriously concerned about Kratos Aurion! He's lost to Hayabusa in this format.

Why do you say this? In the most recent contest stats Zero is at like 30% while Kratos Aurion is under 20%. And the year Zero lost to Hayabusa, Kratos Aurion got doubled by Alucard.

Kratos Aurion could have boosted significantly, he's still no threat to Zero.


Kratos Aurion is significantly underrated because he goes through Ryu/Leon.

even with Leon's adjusted stats, which are pretty generous for Leon, Kratos is under 20


That... doesn't seem right. Kratos A. is worth like 18 just going by his raw value, I thought.

Regardless, we're getting away from the main thrust of the matter, which is if Kratos A. goes out and bombs to all hell there's not going to be much explanation in the ways of a Tales boost!
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#67 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/4/2013 10:40:21 AM | message detail
So apparently Pokemon doesn't even need the Power Hour to have a ridiculous early vote, even against other Nintendo characters. Good to know for Squirtle/Dante.
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#68 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/4/2013 10:41:37 AM | message detail
Xeybozn posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Also, those of you making Blue v Fox 1v1 comparisons may want to absorb this little tidbit!

Based on Fox/Lloyd from last contest and Pikachu/Lloyd from this year, Pikachu gets 53% on Fox.

The other day I tried to figure out Charizard's pre-bandwagon strength using Charizard > L-Block > Isaac from 2010 and Snake > Isaac from this contest; Charizard ended up about as strong as Fox, too.

Then again, 2010 stats are so old at this point that they shouldn't be too reliable for this sort of thing.


Or Snake is going to kill Link, didya think of that
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#69 | spooky96 | Posted 8/4/2013 10:41:55 AM | message detail
y u use xtats they r ancient built by egypt mummies.
#70 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/4/2013 10:41:56 AM | message detail
creativename posted...
Oh that's right, Leon got a crappy sprite vs. Ryu

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb8/cb8-108.jpg

Still, moving Leon up a couple points is barely going to affect Kratos.


What is this
Why people mention Solid **** all the time but this is the first time I see this...monstrosity
#71 | ZenOfThunder (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/4/2013 10:44:15 AM | message detail
#72 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/4/2013 10:45:21 AM | message detail
spooky96 posted...
y u use xtats they r ancient built by egypt mummies.


I lol'd
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#73 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/4/2013 10:45:55 AM | message detail
Zen you are the best
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#74 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/4/2013 10:46:48 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
creativename posted...
Oh that's right, Leon got a crappy sprite vs. Ryu

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb8/cb8-108.jpg

Still, moving Leon up a couple points is barely going to affect Kratos.


What is this
Why people mention Solid **** all the time but this is the first time I see this...monstrosity


Snake is the common example since he's had to go through it multiple times and it's nearly costed him matches he was supposed to win multiple times.
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#75 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/4/2013 10:47:00 AM | message detail
Didn't expect Blue to do this well, nor did I expect Fox to shut down Wolf this hard.

The next round of this division is definitely going to be interesting.
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#76 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/4/2013 10:48:27 AM | message detail
I am personally not relishing the prospect of Snake probably having the closest wire-to-wire match or some similar dumb s*** in this year's setup of Sprite Snake v Laughing Kefka augh
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#77 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/4/2013 10:51:27 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
I am personally not relishing the prospect of Snake probably having the closest wire-to-wire match or some similar dumb s*** in this year's setup of Sprite Snake v Laughing Kefka augh


Speaking of Kefka, how'd he win his match?? I always thought he wasn't that strong...
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#78 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/4/2013 10:52:08 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
I am personally not relishing the prospect of Snake probably having the closest wire-to-wire match or some similar dumb s*** in this year's setup of Sprite Snake v Laughing Kefka augh


Solid S*** vs Laughing Kefka hype!
(clearly Kefka will choke in round 2 and surprise us, Kefka-style)
#79 | XIII_rocks | Posted 8/4/2013 10:52:31 AM | message detail | (edited)
Totally didn't post this in the wrong topic BLUE GAIN
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#80 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/4/2013 10:52:23 AM | message detail
Looking at Fox previous matches...he..doesn't look so strong..?
I'm actually worried about Blue here
#81 | spooky96 | Posted 8/4/2013 10:54:05 AM | message detail
Fayt_Esteed posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
I am personally not relishing the prospect of Snake probably having the closest wire-to-wire match or some similar dumb s*** in this year's setup of Sprite Snake v Laughing Kefka augh


Speaking of Kefka, how'd he win his match?? I always thought he wasn't that strong...


In a 1v1 I'd say Kefka wins 60-40 or so.
#82 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/4/2013 10:55:41 AM | message detail
I like how we're all talking about Solid **** vs. Laughing Kefka as if Kefka is guaranteed to get to Round 3. I can see where that assumption comes from since Kefka beat someone who has beaten Altair in the past, but for all we know FFVII has dropped quite a bit.

And wow, first match this contest where Pokemon has impressed, although I guess the previous matches involved non-RBY entrants (N, Lugia) or characters that aren't well-liked in America anyway (Jigglypuff).

Uh Ridley vs. Pac-Man who've you got? I go with Pac-Man because...it's Ridley.
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#83 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/4/2013 10:55:52 AM | message detail
Blue will win and look 'bad' here. Well, 'bad' in that he's probably 'equal to Fox, a strong middle-of-the-road midcarder, more credit than I would have given him pre-contest'. He's basically a lock for R3 now, as if he runs into Pikachu they're going to kill each other and let Sora through... and if he runs into Crono instead, no way Blue is gonna take advantage of Crono/Sora overlap when Pikachu couldn't take advantage of the Crono/Magus split.
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#84 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/4/2013 10:55:53 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Looking at Fox previous matches...he..doesn't look so strong..?
I'm actually worried about Blue here


Fox is pretty much the posterboy of unlucky bracket placement. Most of every other match he's been in has had him meet up with other Nintendo characters...
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#85 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/4/2013 10:57:34 AM | message detail
Oh wow Fox is trying to mount a comeback.

But it's just SO SLOW. Imagine if Wolf wasn't here.
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#86 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/4/2013 10:57:55 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
I am personally not relishing the prospect of Snake probably having the closest wire-to-wire match or some similar dumb s*** in this year's setup of Sprite Snake v Laughing Kefka augh


If Kefka doesn't lose next round, he will have to find another path that makes no sense. Bad news for Snake!
#87 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/4/2013 10:58:54 AM | message detail
Part of me is feeling as if this site never really cared for Fox, and that he'd be fodder without Smash Bros.
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#88 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/4/2013 10:58:57 AM | message detail
And yeah if Wolf wasn't here this would be an amazing match probably, and potentially quite a big bracket-buster as I can't imagine the board supporting Blue much if Wolf's not here pre-contest. Dammit Bacon
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#89 | Xuxon | Posted 8/4/2013 10:59:43 AM | message detail
From: hylianknight3 | Posted: 8/4/2013 1:57:55 PM | #086
Karma Hunter posted...
I am personally not relishing the prospect of Snake probably having the closest wire-to-wire match or some similar dumb s*** in this year's setup of Sprite Snake v Laughing Kefka augh


If Kefka doesn't lose next round, he will have to find another path that makes no sense. Bad news for Snake!

what if Snake beats Kefka by more than projected with 2010 stats even with Solid **** vs Laughing Kefka? that'd be nonsense enough to work.
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#90 | Sorozone | Posted 8/4/2013 11:00:00 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Oh wow Fox is trying to mount a comeback.

But it's just SO SLOW. Imagine if Wolf wasn't here.


Uhhh Fox isn't doing s***, and won't be doing anything soon. Anytime Wolf gets any semblence of an increase, Blue will go up as well.
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#91 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 8/4/2013 11:00:16 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Oh wow Fox is trying to mount a comeback.

But it's just SO SLOW. Imagine if Wolf wasn't here.


Not how percentages work.
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#92 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/4/2013 11:00:39 AM | message detail
Even if Fox did mount a slow comeback, he's screwed.

This match would be close, regardless, at the end and Blue isn't losing a close match.
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#93 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/4/2013 11:01:02 AM | message detail
Even more stupid is that Fox is completely killing Wolf anyway. Pre-contest, the debate was whether or not Wolf could avoid getting killed enough to cost Fox the win. I guess that's what Wolf is doing, but he somehow STILL manages to be on the ass end of the worst SFF beating we've seen that wasn't from Link.
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#94 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/4/2013 11:01:15 AM | message detail
Also whoa at the Fox disrespect, he's worth a cool 45% on Yoshi directly! Blue being equal to Fox is a good achievement.
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#95 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/4/2013 11:05:06 AM | message detail
Part of me gets the feeling that the Mario crew is all stronger now than in 2008, while most of the rest of Nintendo is taking a hit due to largely getting ignored (or in Metroid's case...).

Basically, I wouldn't put a whole lot of stock in that 2008 result now. Speaking of Nintendo, I just realized that even though Ryu Hayabusa and Big Daddy underperformed expectations right after coming off of poorly-received games, Ridley somehow managed to avoid that (although I guess Ridley did underperform based on stat expectations...but that could easily be explained by him being against Cloud and having a complete pic advantage. Breaking 45% on the lead of a PS1 FF should not be disappointing!). Good sign for Samus?
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#96 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/4/2013 11:07:30 AM | message detail
I wouldn't say Ridley impressed me at all, even relative to my pre-contest expectations of Zidane winning. That was a day match, too - Zidane brutalizes him even more over the course of 24 hours.
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#97 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/4/2013 11:08:37 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Part of me gets the feeling that the Mario crew is all stronger now than in 2008, while most of the rest of Nintendo is taking a hit due to largely getting ignored (or in Metroid's case...).

Basically, I wouldn't put a whole lot of stock in that 2008 result now. Speaking of Nintendo, I just realized that even though Ryu Hayabusa and Big Daddy underperformed expectations right after coming off of poorly-received games, Ridley somehow managed to avoid that (although I guess Ridley did underperform based on stat expectations...but that could easily be explained by him being against Cloud and having a complete pic advantage. Breaking 45% on the lead of a PS1 FF should not be disappointing!). Good sign for Samus?


Err, it was Zidane he was against - I'd never *ever* expect Ridley to get that close to Cloud.
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#98 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/4/2013 11:09:48 AM | message detail
I know that for me,HotS really killed Kerrigan
I prefered to vote for Missile for "lol sake" which is something I would never do with a character I like (same reason I won't vote Karp over Megaman)
If Other M really killed Samus for people,then yes she is in trouble
But unlike Kerrigan,Samus got alot more history...so I dunno
#99 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/4/2013 11:11:14 AM | message detail
Also this argument is almost completely pointless for Samus - even assuming some kind of Other M backlash, I don't have faith enough in its playrate as a Wii Metroid game for that to be worth much. Even if she got severely hurt, who the hell is she going to lose to before getting smashed by Mario? Even against Auron/Tifa, she's got insurance because they're gonna be in the same match! DAMMIT Bacon
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#100 | pjbasis | Posted 8/4/2013 11:12:50 AM | message detail
Blue is pretty strong.

Looks like he might be stronger than Red after all.
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