Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1091

#151 | Lopen | Posted 8/4/2013 12:39:06 AM | message detail | (edited)
Pac doesn't job to Falcon. Maybe Alucard but yeah I don't think he has the pedigree either. I think you're underestimating just how much of an Icon you've gotta be to embarrass Pac-Man. Keep in mind Yoshi only barely got the doubling off in 2005 or 6. Pac would probably get a good 40-45% on them honestly.

As for "rallying" conspiracy theory I honestly don't think there's a very good cheating detection system in place anymore and it's all just a bluff at this point. Either there never really was a very good one or it's too human resource intensive for the administration to care to use it anymore or the typical methods have evolved beyond whatever anti-cheat methods they once had in place.

Rallies just don't work the way they've been working in this contest. They've all been really fishy and much too consistent to be legitimate imhhho.
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#152 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/4/2013 12:38:57 AM | message detail
Keep in mind Yoshi only barely got the doubling off in 2005 or 6.


OK yeah that is hella impressive. I'm surprised Pac-Man holds up that well to popular people.

Lopen posted...
Pac doesn't job to Falcon. Maybe Alucard but yeah. I think you're underestimating just how much of an Icon you've gotta be to embarrass Pac-Man. Keep in mind Yoshi only barely got the doubling off in 2005 or 6. Pac would probably get a good 40-45% on them honestly.

As for "rallying" conspiracy theory I honestly don't think there's a very good cheating detection system in place anymore and it's all just a bluff at this point. Either there never really was a very good one or it's too human resource intensive for the administration to care to use it anymore or the typical methods have evolved beyond whatever anti-cheat methods they once had in place.

Rallies just don't work the way they've been working in this contest. They've all been really fishy and much too consistent to be legitimate imhhho.


You think? The Peacock rally was pretty clearly happening and nobody's gonna say it was cheating.
#153 | Lopen | Posted 8/4/2013 12:42:11 AM | message detail
Oh there have been some legit rallies too. Stuff like Missile, Tharja, and Tiny Tina to name a few seemed like legit rallies to me.

It's more the ones that just happen without seeing any signs of rallying towards the end of polls in close matches (*COUGHANDDRAVENCOUGH*) that are suspicious. Alucard vs Falcon, Lloyd vs Big Daddy, Protoman vs Ike etc etc.
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#154 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/4/2013 12:43:17 AM | message detail
Not all rallies are cheating. Rallies that defy or even reverse trends and that have no real explanation as to how they're holding up are extremely suspect (and my favorite character in these things has been a big beneficiary, so I'm not playing favorites).

Alucard isn't the highest profile one, but it's about as blatant as you get. The fact that he had his best hour of the match after the sun went up is ridiculous.
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#155 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/4/2013 12:43:40 AM | message detail
*COUGHANDDRAVENCOUGH*


I'd take a bow here, but Draven's rally happened three hours in. It wasn't exactly towards the end of the poll!
#156 | Lopen | Posted 8/4/2013 12:47:57 AM | message detail | (edited)
That's why I said "and Draven" cause that wasn't really the same kinda profile but still was 100% bogus (well, like 80% bogus, since a lot of rallied votes were providing a smokescreen too) no matter what cover story Devin Morgan gives us. The very flat trends of the rallying and perhaps more significantly where the votes came from made no sense there. The administration would normally have taken action against something so blatant but there were probably a few thousand legit rallied hits there too and it was a fodder match so may as well increase the site traffic next round.
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#157 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/4/2013 12:51:42 AM | message detail
Oh whoops I missed the 'and' there. So many d's all mashed together tripped me up!

But yeah, I do think that if there were rallies for Alucard and co. they were clearly smokescreens for some cheating. I'm not sure there were any though. Apparently Alucard's always had a good morning vote and I didn't know about it, so I can't say it was totally bogus.
#158 | SubDeity | Posted 8/4/2013 12:54:16 AM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
SubDeity posted...
In case he's on...out of interest, Luster, do you know how many votes each country typically contributes based on the percentages they show? I've noticed that Finland produces significantly more votes than I'd expect.


I can definitely calculate the vote totals for each country based on the percentages. Were there any specific countries you want me to calculate here?


It's way late now, but no, there weren't any particular countries. I was just wondering if you have any estimate for a "typical" vote count by country. How many countries give us over 50 votes, etc.
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#159 | Lopen | Posted 8/4/2013 12:54:38 AM | message detail
Are you joking? Alucard's MO has always been "like any self respecting vampire, dies when the sun comes up"

Falcon's morning vote has never been stellar either but yeah there's no reason card should've won that if he couldn't put it away at night.
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#160 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/4/2013 12:54:46 AM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Oh whoops I missed the 'and' there. So many d's all mashed together tripped me up!

But yeah, I do think that if there were rallies for Alucard and co. they were clearly smokescreens for some cheating. I'm not sure there were any though. Apparently Alucard's always had a good morning vote and I didn't know about it, so I can't say it was totally bogus.


whoever told you this is lying

Alucard has a good argument for having the worst morning vote in the contest, ever. He lost the morning vote to LIQUID SNAKE, who I could arguably win the morning vote against
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#161 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/4/2013 12:56:20 AM | message detail
Is that so? I remember someone saying that Alucard has a good morning vote and DSV, but I freely confess I haven't gone looking for his trends!
#162 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/4/2013 12:59:10 AM | message detail
Yo THAT CUT

What the hell happened to you Drake!
#163 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/4/2013 1:00:05 AM | message detail
Seriously, he literally pulled in just 37 votes there. That's nuts! He was seven votes away from losing that update to Steve!
#164 | Lopen | Posted 8/4/2013 1:00:58 AM | message detail
I think Alucard's DSV is "okay" but yeah his morning vote actually might be the worst in the contest as KH said. Really though no matter when Alucard started making that move given he was hardly damaging Falcon at night which is Alucard's strongest block and Falcon's weakest block it would've been suspicious. Morning is the most because Alucard hates the morning sun vanquishing the terrible night that much but yeah.
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#165 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/4/2013 1:02:23 AM | message detail
Lopen posted...
I think Alucard's DSV is "okay" but yeah his morning vote actually might be the worst in the contest as KH said. Really though no matter when Alucard started making that move given he was hardly damaging Falcon at night which is Alucard's strongest block and Falcon's weakest block it would've been suspicious. Morning is the most because Alucard hates the morning sun vanquishing the terrible night that much but yeah.


So in other words that match can be summed up like this: "What a horrible morning to have a curse."
#166 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/4/2013 1:04:28 AM | message detail
Drake looks like he's gonna be fine for now, it's just with the incredibly low number of votes we're pulling in right now there's gonna be some crazy looking updates if someone drops off.

This is also why it behooves us to look at the trends from the standpoint of 15 minute updates <_<
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#167 | Lopen | Posted 8/4/2013 1:07:14 AM | message detail | (edited)
Yeah calling this for Drake with that lackluster hour for Pac.

But I bet Drake's going to need a "rally" to hold on with the morning vote. Just a feeling.
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#168 | WhiteLens | Posted 8/4/2013 1:09:00 AM | message detail
So with how terrible Steve is doing, Creeper or King of All Cosmos for 2nd place?
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#169 | Sorozone | Posted 8/4/2013 1:09:37 AM | message detail
Lol 29 votes for Pac on that update.
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#170 | paulg235 | Posted 8/4/2013 1:11:22 AM | message detail
WhiteLens posted...
So with how terrible Steve is doing, Creeper or King of All Cosmos for 2nd place?

Drake & Pac > Wario & King
Creeper > Steve

Creeper probably still wins, though Wario may very well make it close.
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#171 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/4/2013 1:33:59 AM | message detail
It's Pac +5 total for that last half hour. This hour's shaping up to be a lot better for him... so far.
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#172 | Dr_Coffee | Posted 8/4/2013 1:35:40 AM | message detail
I just realized Yoshimitsu could win the division if he gets by Sora. Pikachu and Fox LFF to give the Robin Hood of gaming the win
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#173 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/4/2013 1:38:30 AM | message detail
Pac-Man is doing a good job at stalling Drake here. Drake's lead has only increased by 5 since the 3:37 AM update. If Pac-Man can keep the lead within 300 votes heading into the morning vote, he will have a chance to pull off a comeback.
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#174 | SnoicFactor | Posted 8/4/2013 1:45:53 AM | message detail
Not sure why people are expecting Pacman to run away with it with Europe. Nathan is winning UK which is the most important.
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#175 | Swarles_Barkley | Posted 8/4/2013 1:56:31 AM | message detail
Dr_Coffee posted...
I just realized Yoshimitsu could win the division if he gets by Sora. Pikachu and Fox LFF to give the Robin Hood of gaming the win


No.
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#176 | ZinsanityCraze | Posted 8/4/2013 2:00:23 AM | message detail
Dr_Coffee posted...
I just realized Yoshimitsu could win the division if he gets by Sora.


I just realized Fawful could win the division if he gets by Mario.
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#177 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/4/2013 2:09:08 AM | message detail | (edited)
Drake finishes the hour a lot stronger than Pac began it, making it Drake +47 for the half hour and +42 for the hour overall. Pac's gotta stall a bit better and really hope to catch some morning vote fire, which is still pretty shaky since it hasn't really happened all contest (except for Alucard, but...)

edit: oh, and if anyone still cares about Ocelot/Pac comparisons, at this time in the match (5 AM EST) Pac-Man had 48.72% of the vote, compared to his current 48.56% on Drake. He had 51.23% at 12 PM EST. The match had only been going on for two hours instead of five hours, though, at the 5 hour mark in 2k5 Pac had 49.65%.
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#178 | Swarles_Barkley | Posted 8/4/2013 2:49:46 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Drake finishes the hour a lot stronger than Pac began it, making it Drake +47 for the half hour and +42 for the hour overall. Pac's gotta stall a bit better and really hope to catch some morning vote fire, which is still pretty shaky since it hasn't really happened all contest (except for Alucard, but...)

edit: oh, and if anyone still cares about Ocelot/Pac comparisons, at this time in the match (5 AM EST) Pac-Man had 48.72% of the vote, compared to his current 48.56% on Drake. He had 51.23% at 12 PM EST. The match had only been going on for two hours instead of five hours, though, at the 5 hour mark in 2k5 Pac had 49.65%.


Additionally, I don't think Drake's day vote is quite as horrid as Ocelot's is.
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#179 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/4/2013 2:55:23 AM | message detail
He got completely rocked by The Boss in the day, but yes, Drake having a day vote on par with Ocelot would be a feat of awfulness to be sure. No reason to impugn a character by presuming they're *that* bad.

It looks like Drake's gonna make a similar gain for this hour as he did for last hour, and so by the time the morning vote starts really seeping in Pac's probably gonna be fighting against a lead of... 450 or so? Starting at 6 AM against Ocelot, which we're heading into, his percentage started its inexorable rise and really never let up.
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#180 | Swarles_Barkley | Posted 8/4/2013 2:58:21 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
He got completely rocked by The Boss in the day, but yes, Drake having a day vote on par with Ocelot would be a feat of awfulness to be sure. No reason to impugn a character by presuming they're *that* bad.

It looks like Drake's gonna make a similar gain for this hour as he did for last hour, and so by the time the morning vote starts really seeping in Pac's probably gonna be fighting against a lead of... 450 or so? Starting at 6 AM against Ocelot, which we're heading into, his percentage started its inexorable rise and really never let up.


It's hard to gauge Drake's day vote potential from that match though, since there was no night vote. Who knows how badly Drake would've lost that match had it been 24 hours.
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#181 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/4/2013 3:03:14 AM | message detail
Yeah, no doubt. The only thing that tempers me with that is the 'better' you make Drake's day vote look relative to The Boss, the more absolutely awful his 24 hour strength becomes. Which isn't exactly unbelievable considering he's in the fight of his life against Pac-Man, but yeah.

Drake +42 that hour, just like last hour.
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#182 | Swarles_Barkley | Posted 8/4/2013 3:19:16 AM | message detail
Yeah I have to say I'm really disappointed with Drake here. Sure, he wasn't exactly a beacon of strength having lost to The Boss, but then again he got doubled by CATS a year earlier. I was expecting another big boost for him.
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#183 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/4/2013 4:24:21 AM | message detail
I just woke up.Let us see...
1)26% for Game and Watch?Amazing low.Congrats to people that got it right.
2)Okay this match was amazing at the start based on what I read.Lead changes and 2 keeping close.Too bad I lost.Anyway I still can't believe that a generic west white male lead beat Pac Man.
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#184 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 8/4/2013 4:29:55 AM | message detail
Don't think Pac has any chance at a comeback here. Ah well, it was close enough that I don't feel bad for having Pac > Nathan.
This contest just seems to have a habit of kicking me in all the close matches.
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#185 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/4/2013 4:54:02 AM | message detail
One of my most looked forward to match is about to start
4 more hours till Blue is going to show you the real definition of POKEFEAR
The first match in the series,followed by Pikachu>Crono and Mewtwo>Vincent
#186 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/4/2013 4:54:23 AM | message detail
Pac-Man is starting to gain percentage in the US right now.
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#187 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/4/2013 5:06:36 AM | message detail
Drake finishes that last hour at +13 - which is pretty relieving for him, as he was threatening to lose it outright to Pac up until those last 10 minutes or so. Pac is doing a lot better, but unless he improves this pace considerably it won't matter except to make Drake look really, really, really bad.

We're entering the 8-9 AM timeframe, which is where Pac-Man finally overtook Ocelot. He had 49.65% at this time. Pac has 48.42% on Drake right now.
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#188 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/4/2013 5:28:24 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
I just woke up.Let us see...
1)26% for Game and Watch?Amazing low.Congrats to people that got it right.
2)Okay this match was amazing at the start based on what I read.Lead changes and 2 keeping close.Too bad I lost.Anyway I still can't believe that a generic west white male lead beat Pac Man.


If anything it's surprising that Pac-Man even got close to beating Drake at all. Drake isn't just a one-game character like most of these "generic white male leads" - he's the face of an entire franchise, and his name is in two of his games (although neither of them is his most popular).

Somehow I'm starting to feel like Samus and Lightning won't feel the effects of "disappointing game syndrome" like Ryu Hayabusa and the cast of PSASBR have done, at least not to the same extent.
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#189 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/4/2013 5:33:47 AM | message detail
Drake broke 50% there. No messing around on the home stretch.
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#190 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/4/2013 5:34:30 AM | message detail
Heh, and now as we're getting into the morning vote proper, Drake is catching fire in a way he hasn't all match. Looks like he may be day-oriented after all! (and that a 24 hour match with The Boss would have been very embarrassing indeed)
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#191 | jacko_vdz | Posted 8/4/2013 5:35:30 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
One of my most looked forward to match is about to start
4 more hours till Blue is going to show you the real definition of POKEFEAR
The first match in the series,followed by Pikachu>Crono and Mewtwo>Vincent


As the guy who rallied Blue into this contest, I feel ya man.
#192 | Zylothewolf | Posted 8/4/2013 5:37:06 AM | message detail
Drake is actually a likeable main character. He's not one of the best I've ever seen but I know I voted for him because I like him and not because he's the main character in a good series.
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#193 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/4/2013 5:43:49 AM | message detail
Very nice, Drake! Pad the lead to 500 and he gets the win here!

Yeah, Drake's not that bad a lead character. But more importantly, he's had three major games, unlike Booker and many other new characters that bombed. That should be enough to beat out fodder like Pac-Man, though he'll have a really hard time trying to win that next match for sure.
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#194 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/4/2013 5:45:47 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Heh, and now as we're getting into the morning vote proper, Drake is catching fire in a way he hasn't all match. Looks like he may be day-oriented after all! (and that a 24 hour match with The Boss would have been very embarrassing indeed)


Pac-Man is still gaining percentage in the US. The problem is that it takes a while for the US to wake up on the weekend, so the morning vote doesn't kick in as fast as usual. North America only got 54.84% during the 8-9 AM hour for the 2010 continent poll, while Europe got 32.35% during that same time period. So even at this time, Europe still has a lot of influence on the individual updates.
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#195 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/4/2013 5:53:08 AM | message detail
I'm feeling better about Blue's chances here. Having Fox duke it out with another Smash cohort for percentage means good things for Blue.
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#196 | kinsho3 | Posted 8/4/2013 5:56:47 AM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Heh, and now as we're getting into the morning vote proper, Drake is catching fire in a way he hasn't all match. Looks like he may be day-oriented after all! (and that a 24 hour match with The Boss would have been very embarrassing indeed)


Pac-Man is still gaining percentage in the US. The problem is that it takes a while for the US to wake up on the weekend, so the morning vote doesn't kick in as fast as usual. North America only got 54.84% during the 8-9 AM hour for the 2010 continent poll, while Europe got 32.35% during that same time period. So even at this time, Europe still has a lot of influence on the individual updates.


Here's hoping the kiddies did a lot of drinking yesterday and wont wake up til the next match....
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#197 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/4/2013 5:56:51 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Heh, and now as we're getting into the morning vote proper, Drake is catching fire in a way he hasn't all match. Looks like he may be day-oriented after all! (and that a 24 hour match with The Boss would have been very embarrassing indeed)


I thought that Uncharted 2's matches in GOTD were proof that Uncharted is night-oriented.

Pac-Man might just be god-awful during the day, and I'm not really sure if that's supposed to make sense. Oh wait apparently he used the ASV to defeat Ocelot - MGS character or not, I guess that settles it.
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#198 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/4/2013 5:58:47 AM | message detail
Fox > Blue > Wolf

Betting on some fierce Star Fox/Pokemon overlap here and Fox being stronger than Blue indirectly, which is hardly a big longshot here.
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#199 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/4/2013 6:03:02 AM | message detail
_SecretSquirrel posted...
Fox > Blue > Wolf

Betting on some fierce Star Fox/Pokemon overlap here and Fox being stronger than Blue indirectly, which is hardly a big longshot here.


Fox easily wrecks Blue indirectly, given that Blue = Red at best and that Red is just a touch above Ocelot. Honestly this next match is really all about how much Wolf is able to stand up to Fox - if he gets annihilated into looking like bad fodder Fox should have more than enough percentage to beat Blue.

If he can't that would be really depressing, because it means Wolf actually has fans.
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#200 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/4/2013 6:04:55 AM | message detail | (edited)
If Wolf wasn't there, 95% of the board would side with Fox.

It's only because Wolf is there that the problem arises. But I dunno. We haven't really seen an instance of LFF meaning much this contest (Kirby struggling to break 55% on Terra Branford can come to mind, but Terra also stood out a lot in the match pic and Kirby was the obvious winner there anyway).

Okay, rank all these characters in order of strength:

Jigglypuff
Mr. Game & Watch
Ridley
Peach
Marth
Ness
Bayonetta
Pac-Man
Nathan Drake
Gilgamesh
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