Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1091

#101 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/3/2013 11:06:37 PM | message detail
Then00bAvenger posted...
Come to think of it, what contest first saw the change from 3 AM to 12 AM


Series Contest in 2006.
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#102 | Xuxon | Posted 8/3/2013 11:07:27 PM | message detail
only 2005 was 3am right? and 2002-2004 were 1am? or was 2004 3am as well?
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#103 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/3/2013 11:08:10 PM | message detail
#104 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/3/2013 11:08:25 PM | message detail
The contests in 2004 and 2005 were 3 AM. 2002 and 2003 were 1 AM.
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#105 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/3/2013 11:09:02 PM | message detail
Actually, yeah, I remember 2004 being 3 A.M. because I remember being upset that I had to go to bed before the end of Wind Waker/Starcraft in the middle of Starcraft's comeback.

darn you school
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#106 | Lopen | Posted 8/3/2013 11:10:52 PM | message detail
I wish these things still started at 3AM. There's so much more mystery as to what the result will be when you've got the match starting with a disproportionately strong board vote and EUROPE at full strength. They don't make comebacks like they used to as a result of the time change.
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#107 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/3/2013 11:11:23 PM | message detail
Well if you're going to be silly and use the 'real times' for 2005, at 12 PM EST Pac-Man had 51.23% on Revolver Ocelot.

Using trends from a match with different time frames that took place eight years ago in an entirely different format, I believe
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#108 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/3/2013 11:11:33 PM | message detail
Yeah, Frog/Master Chief would've been totally different with a different start time. Same with all of Starcraft's matches.
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#109 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/3/2013 11:12:05 PM | message detail
A 3 AM start time means we would also have a stronger ASV as well, considering the ASV has gotten much weaker over the past few years as the "under 18" age group continues to decline.
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#110 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/3/2013 11:14:00 PM | message detail
Pretty soon neither Pac-Man nor Drake will be doubling Steve anymore.

These guys suck.
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#111 | creativename | Posted 8/3/2013 11:14:19 PM | message detail
Hah - just saw the updates. Funny how the trends often change so suddenly when the Power Hour ends. It's like clockwork so often.
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#112 | Lopen | Posted 8/3/2013 11:14:52 PM | message detail
Sure, Chief and Starcraft are great and all. But my personal reason to bring it back would probably be Ansem/CATS.

Ansem/CATS would've been a completely unmemorable match with a 12am start time. But holy crap that thing was amazing for the first few hours.
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#113 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/3/2013 11:15:39 PM | message detail
Yeah, and I missed it because of that stupid start time!
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#114 | Xuxon | Posted 8/3/2013 11:15:42 PM | message detail
still waiting for Steve to beat Pac in an update
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#115 | creativename | Posted 8/3/2013 11:17:15 PM | message detail
What's a QTE?
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#116 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/3/2013 11:17:46 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
What's a QTE?


Quick Time Event
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#117 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/3/2013 11:22:00 PM | message detail
Drake's percentage on Pac has just exceeded Ocelot's largest he was able to get, though, so that's an encouraging mark for him. We're also about to enter the period where Europe starts dominating my contest matches grrr get out
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#118 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 8/3/2013 11:25:36 PM | message detail
Oh yah go my Drake

Not confident in the next match at all. I think I may just take my one point and run.
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#119 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/3/2013 11:25:56 PM | message detail
Man, it's still funny to think that my entire bracket hinges upon these two piddly R1 matches (Drake's and Blue's). This is one thing that separates this format from 4ways - only one entrant advances. Of course, SFF and the 3rd/4th place guys in future rounds could impact the flow of 4way contests, but it was usually much easier to predict them because two entrants always moved on. If you were banking on two Nintendo characters making it to R2 match, you were still in luck whether those Nintendo characters finished first or second.

Now that security is gone, and we are left with situations where a R1 match can cost many people everything. In past contests, unless you bet it all on a joke character that bombed right away, that kind of stuff just didn't happen.
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#120 | creativename | Posted 8/3/2013 11:27:34 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
creativename posted...
What's a QTE?


Quick Time Event

This...doesn't really answer my question >_>

Heh, no seriously - what does that mean?
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#121 | vcharon | Posted 8/3/2013 11:29:41 PM | message detail
It's a button prompt during an action scene. You mash the correct button at the correct time for the best results.
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#122 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 8/3/2013 11:29:42 PM | message detail
Yeah, division 6 is a nightmare in future round implications. I've gotten everything relevant right so far (Yoshimitsu shouldn't affect anything), but Fox/Blue or even this match in the event of a pacman surge could still screw everything up.
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#123 | creativename | Posted 8/3/2013 11:31:26 PM | message detail
So apparently Steve is a FF7 character. Just keeps going up and up and up.
vcharon posted...
It's a button prompt during an action scene. You mash the correct button at the correct time for the best results.

Ah OK, like in God of War? Thanks.
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#124 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 8/3/2013 11:31:49 PM | message detail
...Actually come to think of it a pacman win would make my R2 predictions safer. Still, though.... this division.
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#125 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/3/2013 11:35:38 PM | message detail
Next match has all the implications in the world for me. Got Fox in R3 (...even if Drake wins this, I don't think Drake is going to beat Fox in R2 even with G&W holding Fox back), and combined with Pikachu in R3 it's the reason why I have Sora in the Final 9, who should of course make the Snake v Cloud match more or less decisively Snake's.
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#126 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/3/2013 11:43:10 PM | message detail
If Pac Man can stall out what should be Drake's best time I think he has this.
#127 | Xuxon | Posted 8/3/2013 11:44:34 PM | message detail
From: creativename | Posted: 8/4/2013 2:31:26 AM | #123
So apparently Steve is a FF7 character. Just keeps going up and up and up.

sadly it looks like he's plateaued now
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#128 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/3/2013 11:46:51 PM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
If Pac Man can stall out what should be Drake's best time I think he has this.


Eh, night vote isn't really in full swing quite yet. It usually doesn't kick in fully until around 3-4.
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#129 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/3/2013 11:46:53 PM | message detail
Eh, I dunno how this is gonna shake out. One of the beautiful things about this is that Drake's trends for a night match are more or less unknown, all we know is he got rocked by The Boss in the middle of the day (which doesn't speak to a great day vote at all, but for all we know it would have been even worse overnight). Meanwhile Pac has a good morning vote, but other than that should be relatively stable I think.

Who knows?
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#130 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 8/3/2013 11:49:36 PM | message detail
Was Drake rallied? First it's a massive stallfest at 50-50 and now it's a massive stallfest at +200 for Drake.
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#131 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/3/2013 11:50:10 PM | message detail
Trends change after the first hour ends.
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#132 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/3/2013 11:57:32 PM | message detail
Pac-Man using the European morning vote to stall, maybe?
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#133 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/4/2013 12:00:03 AM | message detail
Pac European Morning Vote activate, Drake no chance
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#134 | Lopen | Posted 8/4/2013 12:02:53 AM | message detail
This next hour is going to decide the match. If Pac cuts the lead a bit over the course of the next hour then I think he has it. If he just stalls or loses more ground I think he's cooked.

I don't really care since expert has Pac > NO PICK > Steve and bracket has Drake and I like both characters so this is just fun to watch.
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#135 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/4/2013 12:17:06 AM | message detail
Updated Top 10

Top 10 Closest Matches
1. Lloyd Irving – 23.62% vs. Big Daddy – 23.45% - Round 1 – 0.17%
2. Alucard – 36.32% vs. Captain Falcon – 35.95% - Round 1 – 0.37%
3. Ike – 35.81% vs. Proto Man – 35.26% - Round 1 – 0.55%
4. Tharja – 36.21% vs. Tiny Tina – 35.35% - Round 1 – 0.86%
5. Viewtiful Joe – 25.65% vs. Handsome Jack – 24.20% - Round 1 – 1.45%
6. Missile – 19.26 vs. Sarah Kerrigan – 17.74% - Round 1 – 1.52%
7. Captain Viridian – 13.51% vs. Peacock – 11.60% - Round 1 – 1.91%
8. Hero – 25.76% vs. Rinoa Heartilly – 23.26% - Round 1 – 2.50%
9. Mr. Game & Watch – 39.74% vs. Lee Everett – 37.12% - Round 1 – 2.62%
10. Zack Fair – 32.59% vs. Ryu Hayabusa – 29.59% - Round 1 – 3.00%

Top 10 Smallest Day Vote Gaps
1. Ike – 11023 vs. Proto Man – 10854 – Round 1 – 169
2. Viewtiful Joe – 7315 vs. Handsome Jack – 6901 – Round 1 – 415
3. Missile – 6138 vs. Sarah Kerrigan – 5654 – Round 1 – 484
4. Mr. Game & Watch – 10500 vs. Lee Everett – 9808 – Round 1 – 692
5. Hero – 8311 vs. Rinoa Heartilly – 7503 – Round 1 – 808
6. Zack Fair – 9862 vs. Ryu Hayabusa – 8955 – Round 1 – 907
7. Miles Edgeworth – 8763 vs. Agent 47 – 7350 – Round 1 – 1413
8. Kefka – 11443 vs. Zack Fair – 9862 – Round 1 – 1581
9. Chrom – 9589 vs. Heavy – 7924 – Round 1 – 1665
10. Proto Man – 10854 vs. Dr. Robotnik – 8909 – Round 1 – 1945

Top 10 Least Popular Day Polls
1. Gilgamesh vs. Booker DeWitt vs. Kaim Argonar – Round 1 – 25976
2. Mr. Game & Watch vs. Lee Everett vs. Meat Boy – Round 1 – 26421
3. Ness vs. Locke Cole vs. CATS – Round 1 – 27607
4. Magus vs. Otacon vs. Jade Curtiss – Round 1 – 28173
5. Leon Kennedy vs. Albert Wesker vs. Oliver – Round 1 – 28303
6. Frog vs. Viewtiful Joe vs. Handsome Jack – Round 1 – 28522
7. Dante vs. Laharl vs. Raz – Round 1 – 28802
8. Altair vs. Ratchet vs. Shulk – Round 1 – 29616
9. Zidane Tribal vs. Ridley vs. Spring Breeze Dancin’ – Round 1 – 30155
10. Kefka vs. Zack Fair vs. Ryu Hayabusa – Round 1 – 30260

Top 10 Least Impressive Day Winners
1. Mr. Game & Watch – Round 1 – 10500
2. Ike – Round 1 – 11023
3. Kefka – Round 1 – 11443
4. Ness – Round 1 – 12979
5. Altair – Round 1 – 13157
6. Gilgamesh – Round 1 – 13442
7. Magus – Round 1 – 13474
8. Frog – Round 1 – 14305
9. Leon Kennedy – Round 1 – 14493
10. The Boss – Round 1 – 14690

Top 10 Most Impressive Day Losers
1. Waluigi – Round 1 – 14794
2. Ridley – Round 1 – 13037
3. Terra Branford – Round 1 – 11893
4. KOS-MOS – Round 1 – 10944
5. Proto Man – Round 1 – 10854
6. Professor Layton – Round 1 – 10587
7. Zack Fair – Round 1 – 9862
8. Captain Olimar – Round 1 – 9829
9. Lee Everett – Round 1 – 9808
10. Ratchet – Round 1 – 9692

Top 10 Least Predictable Matches
1. Mr. Game & Watch vs. Lee Everett vs. Meat Boy – Round 1 – 26.40%
2. Draven vs. Jak vs. Chie Satonaka – Round 1 – 38.19%
3. Yoshimitsu vs. Lu Bu vs. Groose – Round 1 – 39.13%
4. Gilgamesh vs. Booker DeWitt vs. Kaim Argonar – Round 1 – 40.89%
5. Crash Bandicoot vs. Wheatley vs. Tommy Vercetti – Round 1 – 40.90%
6. Frog vs. Viewtiful Joe vs. Handsome Jack – Round 1 – 41.50%
7. Lugia vs. Sly Cooper vs. Francis York Morgan – Round 1 – 42.40%
8. Ike vs. Proto Man vs. Dr. Robotnik – Round 1 – 42.42%
9. Tharja vs. Tiny Tina vs. Juliet Starling – Round 1 – 42.49%
10. Morrigan Aensland vs. Miles Edgeworth vs. Agent 47 – Round 1 – 45.15%
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Points: 43/52 Today's Picks: Pac-Man and Fox McCloud
#136 | Robazoid | Posted 8/4/2013 12:18:03 AM | message detail
The Pac-Man has cut it below 200 votes

It's over Drake go home
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#137 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/4/2013 12:24:55 AM | message detail
Good to see Pac-Man keeping it close, hopefully it will be close when I wake up.
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#138 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/4/2013 12:25:11 AM | message detail
First 15 minute update of this hour is Pac +10, so he's being encouraging so far.

Though as I type that, Drake spikes on the next update to take it all back and then some. Pac's probably gotta do better.
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#139 | Lopen | Posted 8/4/2013 12:27:19 AM | message detail
The big problem here is that if it's kept close to the end I think board favorite (due to brackets) Drake gets "rallied" in the 11th hour since that's been a recurring theme this contest. So I think Pac-Man needs to not only tie this up but get a decent lead to have a chance here.
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#140 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/4/2013 12:31:48 AM | message detail | (edited)
Probably won't be *that* close if Pac-Man can decisively get the morning vote, though. It's just sorta dependent on whether he can keep the match close enough to realistically swing it and then win going away.

Edit: Though I was forgetting Alucard becoming the champion of the morning vote in his match. That's a pretty blatant example of a match falling sway to unnatural influences, so I can see where you're coming from.
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#141 | CP724 | Posted 8/4/2013 12:29:54 AM | message detail
Why did you put rallied in quotes lol.
#142 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/4/2013 12:30:20 AM | message detail
At this same hour in the Falcon/Alucard match, Falcon's lead was twice as large. Considering I'd take either of those guys to double these jobbers, this keeps the match closeish. We shall see what happens next.
#143 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/4/2013 12:30:50 AM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Considering I'd take either of those guys to double these jobbers


LOL
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#144 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/4/2013 12:31:03 AM | message detail
CP724 posted...
Why did you put rallied in quotes lol.


Board 8 is probably the only place left that knows how to cheat these contests and not get caught and have the votes nulled. So L is referring to that I think.
#145 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/4/2013 12:32:11 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Considering I'd take either of those guys to double these jobbers


LOL


You can't tell me Pac-Man doesn't crumble to guys with actual recognizability and Drake doesn't yield to a Playstation star with seniority over him. Raw strengthswise, yeah, it's probably not more than a 60-40 or so, but you can't just use raw strength at times.
#146 | TyrekeEvans13 | Posted 8/4/2013 12:33:15 AM | message detail
#147 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/4/2013 12:34:51 AM | message detail | (edited)
...the argument is gonna be largely academic though if Pac-Man drops any more updates like that to Drake. Yeesh.

...can't even really blame it on Drake Pac nearly lost that update to Steve
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#148 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/4/2013 12:34:15 AM | message detail
I can tell you that. Alucard and Captain Falcon are not icons. They would not crush Pac-Man. Falcon has trouble getting 70% on Wander. He's not doubling anyone who's not garbage, and while Drake and Pac-Man aren't great by any means, they're not THAT bad.

You guys are waaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyy too quick to assume SFF in most cases.

I mean it's still not as bad as assuming Master Chief crushes Hayabusa with XBOX SFF in 2010, but nothing can really top that.
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#149 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/4/2013 12:34:18 AM | message detail
Yikes, Pac-Man just completely died on that update. Europe really doesn't like the yellow ball I guess!
#150 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/4/2013 12:34:51 AM | message detail
Ha, Pac-Man almost dropped that update to Steve.

Probably a good update for me to call it a night on.
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