Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1090

#251 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/3/2013 4:03:37 PM | message detail
Groose had 51% at the freeze and ended with 24%?Are you sure this is correct?
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#252 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/3/2013 4:05:10 PM | message detail
Well, the freeze happened barely after a minute. On the second update, he was down to 37.50%, which is still a huge drop, but it's not quite as funny as Groose losing half of his percentage from the freeze.
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#253 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/3/2013 4:12:51 PM | message detail
The freeze happened before the 1 minute mark. I think it happened around 45 seconds into the match.
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#254 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/3/2013 4:13:58 PM | message detail
G&W and Lee tied during that last hour, for the record. First tied hour of the contest, I believe.
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#255 | scaryice | Posted 8/3/2013 4:19:25 PM | message detail
Here's an interesting stat for you guys. Including today's match (assuming G&W wins), the oldest character in the match has won 32 times. Middle character has won 12 times, and the newest character has won 8 times.

"Newest Characters" who've won:

Shepard
Draven
Phoenix
Ness
Elizabeth
Ike
Zidane
Sora
#256 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/3/2013 4:21:53 PM | message detail
I saw Ness and was like wut, then I remembered who the competition was.
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#257 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/3/2013 4:22:34 PM | message detail
Was Earthbound released after FFVI?

Huh, so it was. For some reason, I thought FFVI was slightly younger than it was.
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#258 | Janus5000 | Posted 8/3/2013 4:37:26 PM | message detail
man, I just realized next round might have G&W and Fox in the same poll. that is going to be brutal.

even discounting Smash SFF, it's a black man against a dog
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#259 | paulg235 | Posted 8/3/2013 4:41:58 PM | message detail
I'm wondering what are the chances of a MineCraft rally helping Steve make it through the first couple of rounds are. Nathan and Pac-Man aren't brutes in these contests, and we're gonna see GAW and Fox/Blue share the nintendo vote in Round 2.
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#260 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/3/2013 5:18:10 PM | message detail
G&W's lead has barely budged in the past 2.5 hours.

These day matches, man.

Bring on Drake-Man
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#261 | Jakyl25 | Posted 8/3/2013 6:07:04 PM | message detail | (edited)
Wow, over 5 hours where the lead has just been fluctuating within an 80-vote window.

If this was a night match it would have been FIERCE.
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#262 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 8/3/2013 7:01:12 PM | message detail
paulg235 posted...
I'm wondering what are the chances of a MineCraft rally helping Steve make it through the first couple of rounds are. Nathan and Pac-Man aren't brutes in these contests, and we're gonna see GAW and Fox/Blue share the nintendo vote in Round 2.


I'd love to see it, but odds are practically non-existent.

Creeper is the only one from Minecraft who has a shot of being interesting.
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#263 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/3/2013 7:17:27 PM | message detail
Match LIII: (4) Nathan Drake vs. (15) Steve vs. (24) Pac-Man

Previous Contest

Nathan Drake – 2010
47.63% against The Boss

Steve – N/A
N/A

Pac-Man – 2008
25.09% against Mewtwo, Ness and Travis Touchdown
13.44% against Cloud Strife, Mewtwo and Midna

Analysis

Looking at this match Nathan Drake should win, but at the same time I cannot bring myself to take him over Pac-Man. This type of match is almost tailor made for Pac-Man as he is as far from nostalgic characters as he could be. As much as we laugh that Nathan lost to CATS then to The Boss after his big game Pac-Man is not that much stronger than The Boss.

Nathan Drake does have Uncharted 3 to work with and while it will not give him the type of boost Uncharted 2 gave him he does not need much to finish first. What makes me doubt Nathan is the way guys like him have been performing in this contest. Characters that look like regular dudes with regular names have not been performing well. I can see Nathan being an exception of the rule because Uncharted is a big series, but you still have to be vigilant about that.

Steve is a bit of a wild card. Minecraft is one of the most played games, but it is not one of the type of games GameFAQs users play. Just looking at the playing rate of the game, it is abysmal for a game that is played so much. We have seen it happen to World of Warcraft and would have seen it for League of Legends had there been no rally. The only way I see Steve performing well is if he gets a rally, which is possible, but I do not see happening.

Like I said Nathan Drake should win the match, but I am going to back Pac-Man, for whatever reason something feels right by going with Pac-Man over Nathan. Of course feeling right has burned me multiple times throughout history, but this is a match I do not mind losing a point in.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Pac-Man > Nathan Drake and Steve

charmander6000’s Prediction: Pac-Man – 42.44%, Nathan Drake – 37.88%, Steve – 19.68%
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#264 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/3/2013 7:17:48 PM | message detail
Hey look it's that night vote Karma Hunter was convinced G&W couldn't possibly have...!

(Yes, I know. This night vote doesn't have the same demographics as the dead of night Euro vote)
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#265 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/3/2013 7:18:42 PM | message detail
Wait, people would pick Pac-Man > Boss?

Hrm.

I guess people have more faith in apathy voting than I do.
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#266 | ZeldaTPLink | Posted 8/3/2013 7:25:11 PM | message detail | (edited)
After stalling for 5 hours, MGW suddenly starts gaining again, with a night vote no less.

Man, this division, I don't even...
#267 | Lopen | Posted 8/3/2013 7:27:30 PM | message detail
Trends for this match make no sense at all. I guess the explanation is that the Power Hour type vote was spread throughout the opening few hours of the poll, meaning G&W had an overall edge despite EUROPE being stronger at the time? Then EUROPE and the "power hour" dissipated in parallel, or something?

I don't know. Dumb.
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#268 | NotTerrafire | Posted 8/3/2013 7:34:54 PM | message detail
Not only is this a summer holiday match, but it's a weekend summer holiday match. The neat trend periods aren't as likely to apply.
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#269 | creativename | Posted 8/3/2013 8:25:17 PM | message detail
Man, I didn't realize how huge of a boost Drake got from UC2. Going from getting doubled by CATS to almost even with The Boss.

If UC3 gives him even a small boost this will be a very close match. The main fear I think is that Drake has dropped, but if HM is right about UC3's reception then a drop seems unlikely.

Pac-Man is very close to The Boss level so it is a hard to call match anyway. UC3's influence is a wild card, but if Drake has gotten any noteworthy boost he should edge Pac-Man out.

Lopen posted...
Trends for this match make no sense at all. I guess the explanation is that the Power Hour type vote was spread throughout the opening few hours of the poll, meaning G&W had an overall edge despite EUROPE being stronger at the time? Then EUROPE and the "power hour" dissipated in parallel, or something?

I don't know. Dumb.

Lee is winning UK and Denmark, that means that since Europe has been going to bed G&W is gaining as one would expect. The SNV is not like the first night vote, the first night vote is about Europe, the SNV is about North America.
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#270 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/3/2013 8:26:53 PM | message detail
I dunno. I feel like we've retroactively made Pac-Man out to be better than he really is because he scored an upset on Ocelot and (tell me when you've heard this one before) Ness got SFF'd to death and let him advance.

Dude lost to Lettuce Kefka once upon a time.
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#271 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/3/2013 8:35:47 PM | message detail
Is a 10 year old poll against Kefka of all characters really worth anything today? Well, I guess if there's anyone that's stayed constant since then it would be Pac-man.
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#272 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/3/2013 8:36:55 PM | message detail
I'm just saying, people are holding up Pac-Man like you have to be something special to beat him. He lost to one of the ugliest things this contest has ever seen.
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#273 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/3/2013 8:39:53 PM | message detail
Typing that out has also made me realized that I'm trying to use an 8 year old poll that involves Ocelot to try and justify a Pac-man victory. That poll also really shouldn't mean much today.
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#274 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/3/2013 8:42:14 PM | message detail
Yeah, Pac-Man hasn't been in a contest match since 2008.

Well, unless you count this.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3692

And I don't think it's a particularly flattering result for him! Pac-Man's one of those guys who's going to do worse the more options you give other people to pick.
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#275 | Lopen | Posted 8/3/2013 8:48:34 PM | message detail | (edited)
that means that since Europe has been going to bed G&W is gaining as one would expect. The SNV is not like the first night vote, the first night vote is about Europe, the SNV is about North America.

Europe has been going to bed since like 5 hours ago, man. G&W should've been pushing before this if the trends made sense. Protoman/Ike is a better example of the American favorite plays vs the European vote and Protoman was winning America by much less than G&W.
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#276 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/3/2013 8:50:56 PM | message detail
I guess I'm bailing on Pac-man. Hopefully this works out.
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#277 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/3/2013 8:52:24 PM | message detail
I'm still waffling between the two. Hopefully this works out!
#278 | Jakyl25 | Posted 8/3/2013 8:57:50 PM | message detail
Four straight cuts by Lee. Look out!
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#279 | Qwaar | Posted 8/3/2013 8:58:42 PM | message detail
Last minute switch to Drake...hope I won't have egg on my face.
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#280 | tennisboy213 | Posted 8/3/2013 9:00:15 PM | message detail
Vote Accepted


Nathan Drake
29.41%
5 Votes
Your Pick

Steve
17.65%
3 Votes

Pac-Man
52.94%
9 Votes
Total Votes: 17
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#281 | Blairville | Posted 8/3/2013 9:00:39 PM | message detail
dat Steve board vote
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#282 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/3/2013 9:00:47 PM | message detail
Nathan Drake
42.86%
21 Votes

Steve
14.29%
7 Votes

Pac-Man
42.86%
21 Votes
Your Pick

Woah, dead even out of the gate.
#283 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/3/2013 9:01:03 PM | message detail
Not sure if going 50/50 early is bad for Drake or Pac-Man.

Probably Drake because of BRACKETS

But he SHOULD get the night vote either way
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#284 | Xuxon | Posted 8/3/2013 9:01:59 PM | message detail
#285 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/3/2013 9:02:28 PM | message detail
2 minute freeze today.
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#286 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 8/3/2013 9:02:30 PM | message detail
Damn freeze.
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#287 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/3/2013 9:02:39 PM | message detail
Freeze already huh
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#288 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/3/2013 9:02:55 PM | message detail
RacistFAQS just won't let up
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#289 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/3/2013 9:02:59 PM | message detail
and the freeze
will next update feature Groose-like hilarity?
#290 | Ytterbium_70 | Posted 8/3/2013 9:03:46 PM | message detail
Drake is going to tear into Pac-Man if the spheroid can't pull it together!
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#291 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 8/3/2013 9:04:05 PM | message detail
I am dreading seeing Drake pull out a large lead at next update but for some reason that's how I think it's going to go.
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#292 | Blairville | Posted 8/3/2013 9:04:06 PM | message detail
I'm pretty confident about Drake. I expected Pac-Man to be stronger by this point, for whatever reason.
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#293 | Jakyl25 | Posted 8/3/2013 9:04:46 PM | message detail
Come on Sakurai, announce Pac-Man for SSB4!
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#294 | SonicRaptor | Posted 8/3/2013 9:04:48 PM | message detail
At the very least I'm glad to see Drake/Pac was so close that one could have picked one anyway.
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#295 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/3/2013 9:04:52 PM | message detail
Whoa, only 26.40% had G&W
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#296 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 8/3/2013 9:07:23 PM | message detail
We have a match!
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#297 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 8/3/2013 9:07:27 PM | message detail
Wakka Wakka!
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#298 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/3/2013 9:07:30 PM | message detail
#299 | tennisboy213 | Posted 8/3/2013 9:07:35 PM | message detail
We have a match!
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#300 | Dr_Football | Posted 8/3/2013 9:07:36 PM | message detail
.....STALL?
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