Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1090

#151 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/3/2013 10:02:59 AM | message detail
The Boss went even with Tails she doesn't have much strength.
---
BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 43/50 Today's Picks: Groose and Lee Everett
#152 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/3/2013 10:05:09 AM | message detail
I'd take Tails to annihilate like half of this division without even breaking a sweat <_<
---
sig
#153 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/3/2013 10:06:39 AM | message detail
To presume that Drake isn't any stronger now than he was 3.5 years ago is to really lowball him. In the 2008 contest, he was an invisible character that no one cared about. In the 2010 contest, he was a character that "mattered," but had only gained that status a few short months prior. Drake has had three years to get more exposure and more people playing his series.

Would anyone here claim that Shepard is no stronger than he was in 2010? The two characters are in almost identical situations.
---
Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
http://i.imgur.com/gdl8lcn.jpg
#154 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/3/2013 10:08:01 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Nope, we had two solid years of Luster trend charts on meaningless POTDs.


On average, that was maybe around twice a month at best. At least it kept the stats topics alive.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#155 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 8/3/2013 10:08:53 AM | message detail
Yoblazer is going to convince me to put Drake > Pac-man in my expert and cost me -4 points isn't he.
---
Menji has reclaimed what was his by rights. I was more of a man with his than with my own combined.
##Alec
#156 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/3/2013 10:09:31 AM | message detail
Would anyone here claim that Shepard is no stronger than he was in 2010? The two characters are in almost identical situations.

To be fair Shepard had the Halo 3 effect going for him
---
BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 43/50 Today's Picks: Groose and Lee Everett
#157 | MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/3/2013 10:13:02 AM | message detail | (edited)
The difference between him and Shepard is that I feel Mass Effect is actually a hit on this site that has hit the "Smash hit" status.

Uncharted hasn't. After 2, 3 disappointed in its poll.

Drake is more like the Tommy Vercetti's/Marcus Fenix of the gaming world if you catch my drift. Most Drake backers will disagree with this and that's fine. It's definitely based on a gut more than a statistical basis. Drake could win solely because of the rise of Sony and Naughty Dog.
---
"i am pretty sure 3-year old children would generate more thoughtful discussion than board 8 on any topic of sexism" - Naye745
#158 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 8/3/2013 10:11:31 AM | message detail
This match says very little about Pac/Drake. While Drake is obviously stronger than Lee, I'm convinced Pacman would wipe the floor with G&W.
---
Bracket score: 45 / Expert score: 224
#159 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/3/2013 10:13:50 AM | message detail
Shepard has one massive advantage over Drake - this site plays his games. The ME series is the kind of game that GameFAQs takes to like catnip, even if it's a bit more niche here due to being newer and a WRPG. Uncharted I don't see even coming close.

Granted Shepard's way out of Drake's league when it comes to strength so he doesn't have to have those disadvantages... but there's really no way of knowing how well the parallels line up. And if we're postulating that Shepard was as similarly weaker in 2010 as Drake was that doesn't exactly speak volumes for Pikachu...
---
sig
#160 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/3/2013 10:14:30 AM | message detail
LOL me.
---
Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC
#161 | ZinsanityCraze | Posted 8/3/2013 10:17:03 AM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
The Boss went even with Tails she doesn't have much strength.


The same Tails that performed admirably against Kratos. No need to belittle that little guy.
---
Zinsanity of the Helix Board
#162 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/3/2013 10:20:31 AM | message detail
the point is yo are you gonna sig bet me on this match or what

ever since GameFAQs ripped the mermaid out of my signature I don't know what to do anymore
---
sig
#163 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/3/2013 10:20:47 AM | message detail
creativename posted...
MarioSuperstar posted...
I am #8 on expert challenge and I have banked all that I possibly could the normal way.

Don't ever chicken out guys. Ever.

Indeed. People on here greatly overrate taking "risks". That has always been the case in the Oracle as well.

In the Oracle lots of people make picks they don't really believe in to try and snag a top 5 or #1 prediction. I have among the highest ever for both those, despite almost always making the safe pick. Accuracy is more important than choosing risks just for the sake of.

In the Expert, banking is very underrated. Because mathematically, if you make a pick in a hard to call match just to take a risk, you will probably end up with negative points.

Taking the obvious 1st if there is one and banking the other two spots is a strong play. If you think any picks are almost random because they are so hard to pick, bank. In tough matches most will end up scoring negative so you will be fine.

But people aren't good at knowing when to fold.

Taking risks is more important late in the contest because point totals increase a lot. Getting the late round matches right is what will win in the Expert and bracket contests.


If there's an obvious 1st or obvious 3rd, generally you should make a pick for the other two places. If the other two positions are exactly 50-50, in the long run you don't gain or lose points regardless of if you pick or bank. However, if you think there's a 51-49 split in how the positions will go, picking is better in the long run and naturally becomes more favourable as your confidence increases.
---
Pokemon VGC2013 BC Regional - 16th place
Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place
#164 | TyrekeEvans13 | Posted 8/3/2013 10:33:20 AM | message detail
Lee with some fight in him
---
The King of Kings
http://img18.imageshack.us/img18/9971/744sptp062727c1tyrekeem.jpg
#165 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/3/2013 10:37:18 AM | message detail
...if Lee can keep this up without collapsing he has a shot, because there's no way in hell G&W has anything resembling a night vote.
---
sig
#166 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/3/2013 10:40:05 AM | message detail | (edited)
What kind of world do we live in where Mr. Game & Watch wins a match over the main characters of critically-acclaimed, high-selling new games?

This is just too surreal. Oh, and lol the 25 seed choices at that.

Imagine if Ridley was in Mr. Game & Watch's place. He could be absolutely slaughtering this match.
---
Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC
#167 | ZeldaTPLink | Posted 8/3/2013 10:40:17 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
What kind of world do we live in where Mr. Game & Watch wins a match over the main characters of critically-acclaimed, high-selling new games?

This is just too surreal.


Every time I see people use words such as "critically aclaimed", "character development" or "plot" when analysing a contest match, I laugh.

More people played Smash. Smash characters are more popular. This is a popularity contests. End of story.
#168 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/3/2013 10:44:03 AM | message detail | (edited)
Yeah, I was starting to have doubts about that as well, thinking about how similar stuff probably happened earlier in contests. But it's not like The Walking Dead and Super Meat Boy are SO mainstream they get a lot of hate on the Internet like your Halos and Grand Theft Autos, and it's not like Mr. Game & Watch is a badass-looking character from Final Fantasy VII or Chrono Trigger.

And Mr. Game & Watch winning a match is like...just so weird.

Anyway, Meat Boy seems to be the primary beneficiary of the night vote, strangely enough.
---
Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC
#169 | ZeldaTPLink | Posted 8/3/2013 10:45:18 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Yeah, I was starting to have doubts about that as well, thinking about how similar stuff probably happened earlier in contests. But it's not like The Walking Dead and Super Meat Boy are SO mainstream they get a lot of hate on the Internet like your Halos and Grand Theft Autos, and it's not like Mr. Game & Watch is a badass-looking character from Final Fantasy VII or Chrono Trigger.

And Mr. Game & Watch winning a match is like...just so weird.


He is a fun playable character from a game that was probably played more than Chrono Trigger or FFVII. And way more than Walking Dead. Heck, before this contest started I didn't even know Walking Dead was anything more than a live action series. I would recognize Meat Boy before Lee Everett.
#170 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/3/2013 10:50:17 AM | message detail | (edited)
Regardless I'm definitely going to rescind my earlier comment that this match was an easy call now that this is looking more like 53/47 at the least instead of 58/42. Smash and recognizability can apparently only take you so far, Everett's humiliating G&W here.

...I mean, geez, G&W probably loses if this is a night match.
---
sig
#171 | LOLContests | Posted 8/3/2013 10:49:34 AM | message detail | (edited)
If you're 50/50 about two characters instead of not picking you should go with the board consensus, if there is one. While the board's not going to be right some of the time, they're probably going to be better than 50/50.
---
"What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!"
This is Yesmar.
#172 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/3/2013 10:49:21 AM | message detail
Your match winner's most high-profile appearance since Brawl right here!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1l5H1wopirA
---
Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC
#173 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/3/2013 10:50:57 AM | message detail
Ohhhhh a sig bet, yep let's do it. Beware though, since yesterday I've decided to be much more insidious about those things. Don't expect any awesome Ariel or Fedor pictures!
---
http://i.imgur.com/a4GuDV3.gif
#174 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/3/2013 10:51:30 AM | message detail
ZeldaTPLink posted...
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Yeah, I was starting to have doubts about that as well, thinking about how similar stuff probably happened earlier in contests. But it's not like The Walking Dead and Super Meat Boy are SO mainstream they get a lot of hate on the Internet like your Halos and Grand Theft Autos, and it's not like Mr. Game & Watch is a badass-looking character from Final Fantasy VII or Chrono Trigger.

And Mr. Game & Watch winning a match is like...just so weird.


He is a fun playable character from a game that was probably played more than Chrono Trigger or FFVII. And way more than Walking Dead. Heck, before this contest started I didn't even know Walking Dead was anything more than a live action series. I would recognize Meat Boy before Lee Everett.


Well okay, I had never heard of The Walking Dead at all until the game started winning GOTY awards left and right. But then again I keep up with that stuff all the time.
---
Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC
#175 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/3/2013 10:53:25 AM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Ohhhhh a sig bet, yep let's do it. Beware though, since yesterday I've decided to be much more insidious about those things. Don't expect any awesome Ariel or Fedor pictures!


That's okay, you should expect something even *more* insidious though like, um, uh...

...who am I kidding it's probably gonna be boilerplate Snake fanboyism
---
sig
#176 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/3/2013 10:55:57 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
What kind of world do we live in where Mr. Game & Watch wins a match over the main characters of critically-acclaimed, high-selling new games?

This is just too surreal.


Shut up.
---
`•.,¸¸,.•´¯`•.,¸¸,.•´¯`•.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.•´¯`•.,¸¸,.•´¯`•.,¸¸,.•´
I wouldn't put it past myself to do such a thing.
#177 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/3/2013 10:56:05 AM | message detail
Kotetsu534 posted...
Given that Silent Assassin lost to a game called Jedi Outcast in its GOTY poll, this site.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1132


My god..
This site sucks
#178 | lightsout06 | Posted 8/3/2013 10:56:12 AM | message detail
I got +6 this match if everything stays the same
---
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BMcwhStCYAAr-mC.jpg
Dallas Cowboys and Mavs
#179 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/3/2013 11:01:37 AM | message detail
Surprised there's not more commotion about Lee stalling G&W for the past hour or so.

Probably because it's a close match involving a new character and an essentially pure Smash character.
---
Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy II - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3557012
Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64
#180 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/3/2013 11:06:32 AM | message detail
I've noticed it. Lee might still win later.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Main_Page, Rest in peace Kazbar :(
#181 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/3/2013 11:06:55 AM | message detail
...okay, G&W can't really afford this. Even with the neutered trends the combination of Lee having brackets and him falling off a cliff when the sun goes down is gonna be brutal.
---
sig
#182 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/3/2013 11:08:52 AM | message detail
Since there are probably (probably!) limits to how bad Game and Watch can be, you know who looks even worse now? Clementine.

If you do terrible because nobody played your game, fair enough. That's potentially fixable. But after this it looks to me like people just didn't give a damn about her.
---
[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
#183 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/3/2013 11:09:47 AM | message detail
Wow, G&W impressing here. Potentially getting 2 big Guru upsets in a row. I LOVE this division.
---
Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite?
However, the Guru of the next decade so far is SuperNiceDog
#184 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 8/3/2013 11:10:34 AM | message detail
Well guess I should have gone all in!
---
I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword
#185 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/3/2013 11:13:49 AM | message detail
At this time, Ike led Proto Man by 298. Game & Watch currently leads by 339. Proto Man also had the benefit of Europe going to sleep as the match came to a close and Ike was destroying Proto Man in Europe.
---
Pokemon VGC2013 BC Regional - 16th place
Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place
#186 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/3/2013 11:17:28 AM | message detail
I'm taking Drake
Uncharted 3 came out 2 years ago,there might be a chance he is even stronger than what he was in 2010
He sure came a long way..from being doubled by CATS to going head-to-head with The Boss
And Pacman never was strong..he was even equal to Wander one time..so yeah..
#187 | Crimson Dragoon | Posted 8/3/2013 11:18:23 AM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
But after this it looks to me like people just didn't give a damn about her.


Literally (and I mean this by dictionary definition and not just internet overuse) impossible if you've played the game.

It's the entire point of the game even.
---
~FFDragon. (at Work !!) The Cream of Resident Evil Fanboyism.
#188 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/3/2013 11:19:14 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
I'm taking Drake
Uncharted 3 came out 2 years ago,there might be a chance he is even stronger than what he was in 2010
He sure came a long way..from being doubled by CATS to going head-to-head with The Boss
And Pacman never was strong..he was even equal to Wander one time..so yeah..


...using Pac-Man from a match where he had to share the poll with freakin' Mario is ridiculous.
---
sig
#189 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/3/2013 11:23:06 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
I'm taking Drake
Uncharted 3 came out 2 years ago,there might be a chance he is even stronger than what he was in 2010
He sure came a long way..from being doubled by CATS to going head-to-head with The Boss
And Pacman never was strong..he was even equal to Wander one time..so yeah..


My main reasoning for why Drake would be stronger is that Uncharted 2 was super-new last character battle, but now it's considered to be a modern classic. I just feel as if Uncharted 2 is more highly regarded now than in its own time.
---
Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC
#190 | Sorozone | Posted 8/3/2013 11:25:09 AM | message detail
Drake gonna have that Playstation All-Stars boost.
---
http://i.imgur.com/32RNLnc.gif
#191 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/3/2013 11:29:31 AM | message detail
Sorozone posted...
Drake gonna have that Playstation All-Stars boost.


Sure helped Big Daddy. >_>
---
Pokemon VGC2013 BC Regional - 16th place
Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place
#192 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/3/2013 11:30:08 AM | message detail
Team Rocket Elite posted...
At this time, Ike led Proto Man by 298. Game & Watch currently leads by 339. Proto Man also had the benefit of Europe going to sleep as the match came to a close and Ike was destroying Proto Man in Europe.


The thing with G&W is he probably gets most of his strength from Smash and we know how weak Smash is in Europe. So I think G&W should be doing better after Europe goes to sleep.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#193 | Sorozone | Posted 8/3/2013 11:30:10 AM | message detail
#194 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/3/2013 11:30:23 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Nanis23 posted...
I'm taking Drake
Uncharted 3 came out 2 years ago,there might be a chance he is even stronger than what he was in 2010
He sure came a long way..from being doubled by CATS to going head-to-head with The Boss
And Pacman never was strong..he was even equal to Wander one time..so yeah..


...using Pac-Man from a match where he had to share the poll with freakin' Mario is ridiculous.


Pac Man is a classic character,he is not supposed to be SFF'd by anyone AS EVERYONE PLAYED Pacman
This is like to say that Link can SFF "Left Pong Paddle"
You know,maybe you are right and L-Block lost to Pikachu because Crono SFF'd it?
#195 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/3/2013 11:34:12 AM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
Team Rocket Elite posted...
At this time, Ike led Proto Man by 298. Game & Watch currently leads by 339. Proto Man also had the benefit of Europe going to sleep as the match came to a close and Ike was destroying Proto Man in Europe.


The thing with G&W is he probably gets most of his strength from Smash and we know how weak Smash is in Europe. So I think G&W should be doing better after Europe goes to sleep.


well, G&W is getting over 40% in mainland Europe but is getting killed in UK
so idk about that...
#196 | Lopen | Posted 8/3/2013 11:37:05 AM | message detail
I think UK is like 70%+ of the European vote though correct me if I'm wrong.
---
No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#197 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/3/2013 11:40:54 AM | message detail
Lopen posted...
I think UK is like 70%+ of the European vote though correct me if I'm wrong.


well in that case pack it up, G&W wins easily
#198 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/3/2013 11:45:46 AM | message detail
Lopen posted...
I think UK is like 70%+ of the European vote though correct me if I'm wrong.


About 40%.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#199 | Lopen | Posted 8/3/2013 11:47:43 AM | message detail
Oh just 40%? Maybe there's a chance then. Honestly though just looking at US and Canada percentages I'm thinking not. Protoman wasn't actually losing the US by much (and ended up winning it in the end) but Lee is losing it by more than the poll result.
---
No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#200 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/3/2013 11:48:41 AM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
Lopen posted...
I think UK is like 70%+ of the European vote though correct me if I'm wrong.


About 40%.


what about the other European countries then
(also Asia splits, not that it really matters)