Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1090

#101 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/3/2013 9:11:48 AM | message detail
Dr_Football posted...
Hahah my -3 yesterday moved me into the top 10


my -2 moved me from #5 to #4

if this result holds, I'll get 0
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F*** BT
#102 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/3/2013 9:12:15 AM | message detail
Huh, looks like Lee might have second place after all.

39.13% had Yoshimitsu, by the way.
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#103 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/3/2013 9:12:41 AM | message detail
So this is going to stay like this I believe
+0 points this match...better than -6 at least
#104 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/3/2013 9:13:08 AM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
48------7------------28.57
47------55----------29.09
46------126--------21.43
45------173--------16.18
44------198--------33.33
43------260--------27.69
42------343--------33.53
41------498--------29.92
40------631--------34.23
39------837--------31.54
38------1056------32.67
37------1233------33.74
36------1192------36.91
35------1321------39.67
34------1289------40.26
33------1058------41.30
32------854--------47.19
31------789--------45.25
30------693--------47.33
29------541--------47.87
28------438--------53.20
27------311--------46.62
26------276--------52.17
25------247--------42.51
24------174--------42.53
23------134--------44.78
22------102--------46.08
21------85----------40.00
20------66----------39.39
19------61----------26.23
18------44----------63.64
17------36----------36.11
16------27----------37.04
15------15----------33.33
14------16----------50.00
13------11----------45.45
12------7------------28.57
11------6------------66.67
10------4------------50.00
9--------0------------0.00
8--------3------------100.00
7--------2------------50.00
6--------1------------100.00
5--------2------------100.00
4--------18----------83.33
3--------2------------0.00
2--------3------------66.67
1--------8------------12.50
0--------1------------0.00

Pretty similar to the Gilgamesh match. The top tiers float around the 30s so it's a bit better than last time, but the casuals still win with roughly 40% predcition percentage in the middle tiers. Lu Bu probably had a fair amount of bracket support so Yoshimitsu probably was the favourite to win the match outside the board.

19 people fell off the Top 49. hellfire104, Hitagi, iGenesis, InvisibleOmega, isNotPerfect, JaySolano, jkmill550, KanzarisKelshen, Karma_Hunter, Kumatora, lightsout06, Lizcious, LordoftheMorons, Masato_Tanaka, MrDew, Neopeopleschamp, Nintendoboy375, Panthera and ramprevs did not have Yoshimitsu winning the match.

18 people got it wrong and survived. Former third place Flock_Masta_P, Fr0zoN, Hagankefs, NLMagic, Xcarvenger, AAAMitsugi, AlecTrevylan006, Als52, AsurasKordoth, Blairville, ChenKenichiFan, Colegreen_c12, DarkFalconX, davidponte, DiegoArmado, ElsaStegosaurus, Gandalfsam and GoldSlime35 also did not have Yoshimitsu winning the match.
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#105 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/3/2013 9:15:31 AM | message detail
Updated Top 10

Top 10 Smallest Night Vote Gaps
1. Lloyd Irving – 6223 vs. Big Daddy – 6177 – Round 1 – 46
2. Alucard – 10242 vs. Captain Falcon – 10139 – Round 1 – 103
3. Tharja – 11016 vs. Tiny Tina – 10753 – Round 1 – 263
4. Captain Viridian – 3128 vs. Peacock – 2685 – Round 1 – 443
5. Isaac – 4443 vs. Tingle – 3463 – Round 1 – 980
6. Crash Bandicoot – 11242 vs. Wheatley – 9702 – Round 1 – 1540
7. Cole – 5783 vs. Ragna the Bloodedge – 4240 – Round 1 – 1543
8. Midna – 6922 vs. Little Mac – 5098 – Round 1 – 1824
9. Lu Bu – 7509 vs. Groose – 5682 – Round 1 – 1827
10. Poison – 8157 vs. Thrall – 6277 – Round 1 – 1880

Top 10 Least Popular Night Polls
1. Lugia vs. Sly Cooper vs. Francis York Morgan – Round 1 – 22481
2. Gordon Freeman vs. Simon Belmont vs. Hades – Round 1 – 22609
3. Yoshimitsu vs. Lu Bu vs. Groose – Round 1 – 23006
4. Big Boss vs. Captain Viridian vs. Peacock – Round 1 – 23150
5. Dracula vs. Lucina vs. Caim – Round 1 – 23719
6. GlaDOS vs. Cole vs. Ragna the Bloodedge – Round 1 – 24282
7. Elizabeth vs. Poison vs. Thrall – Round 1 – 24651
8. Shadow the Hedgehog vs. Yu Narukami vs. Kat – Round 1 – 24941
9. Spyro the Dragon vs. Clementine vs. Reyn – Round 1 – 25235
10. Lara Croft vs. Slime vs. Yuri Hyuga – Round 1 – 25355

Top 10 Least Impressive Night Winners
1. Yoshimitsu – Round 1 – 9815
2. Elizabeth – Round 1 – 10217
3. Alucard – Round 1 – 10242
4. Tharja – Round 1 – 11016
5. Crash Bandicoot – Round 1 – 11242
6. Phoenix Wright – Round 1 – 11914
7. Sora – Round 1 – 12275
8. Gordon Freeman – Round 1 – 12353
9. Shadow the Hedgehog – Round 1 – 12411
10. Epona – Round 1 – 12989

Top 10 Least Predictable Matches
1. Draven vs. Jak vs. Chie Satonaka – Round 1 – 38.19%
2. Yoshimitsu vs. Lu Bu vs. Groose – Round 1 – 39.13%
3. Gilgamesh vs. Booker DeWitt vs. Kaim Argonar – Round 1 – 40.89%
4. Crash Bandicoot vs. Wheatley vs. Tommy Vercetti – Round 1 – 40.90%
5. Frog vs. Viewtiful Joe vs. Handsome Jack – Round 1 – 41.50%
6. Lugia vs. Sly Cooper vs. Francis York Morgan – Round 1 – 42.40%
7. Ike vs. Proto Man vs. Dr. Robotnik – Round 1 – 42.42%
8. Tharja vs. Tiny Tina vs. Juliet Starling – Round 1 – 42.49%
9. Morrigan Aensland vs. Miles Edgeworth vs. Agent 47 – Round 1 – 45.15%
10. Zidane Tribal vs. Ridley vs. Spring Breeze Dancin’ – Round 1 – 48.84%
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 43/50 Today's Picks: Groose and Lee Everett
#106 | ZeldaTPLink | Posted 8/3/2013 9:16:04 AM | message detail
Who is this guy who still has a zero bracket?
#107 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/3/2013 9:16:13 AM | message detail
Stabilizing already, huh
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#108 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/3/2013 9:17:11 AM | message detail
Squirrel Gate.He posts here.I don't know who he has in this match though.I guess Meat Boy.
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#109 | ffmasterjose | Posted 8/3/2013 9:17:15 AM | message detail
YES Game and Watch!

YES! YES! YES!
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The Great GameFAQs Character Battle IX contest: 46/51 pts
NP:Mr. Game & Watch > Lee Everett > Meat Boy
#110 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 8/3/2013 9:17:17 AM | message detail
Match over. And my bracket keeps bleeding. Damn this division.
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#111 | ZeldaTPLink | Posted 8/3/2013 9:18:49 AM | message detail
This division has already gotten the second and third least predicted matches. And it's not even over yet. Damn.
#112 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/3/2013 9:19:02 AM | message detail
Now to use this match as evidence for Drake > Pac-Man

give me a second
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F*** BT
#113 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/3/2013 9:19:33 AM | message detail
I will be getting 4 points today since I did Mr. Game & Watch > Lee Everett > Lee Everett in my Expert Challenge. Since it seems like Lee Everett will get second place today, that means 4 points for me.
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#114 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/3/2013 9:19:58 AM | message detail
Well, at least I should be able to claw my way back onto the leaderboard after today.

But I don't understand why this match was so easy okay I'm shutting up
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#115 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/3/2013 9:20:27 AM | message detail
So you picked Lee to both 2nd and 3rd place.
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#116 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/3/2013 9:22:48 AM | message detail
Yes, you can pick the same character for 2nd and 3rd place if you wanted to.
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#117 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/3/2013 9:23:31 AM | message detail
I'm surprised Lee is doing this well. I didn't know if he'd be stronger than Clementine since she seems to get more talk.
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#118 | pjbasis | Posted 8/3/2013 9:23:59 AM | message detail
woo hoo for switching from my bracket
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SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#119 | MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/3/2013 9:24:43 AM | message detail
I am #8 on expert challenge and I have banked all that I possibly could the normal way.

Don't ever chicken out guys. Ever.
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#120 | PlasmaKappa | Posted 8/3/2013 9:25:05 AM | message detail
0 points club rep
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#121 | pjbasis | Posted 8/3/2013 9:25:05 AM | message detail
I can't imagine The Boss losing or only barely beating Pac-man so I also have Drake winning next, but it's scary
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SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#122 | pjbasis | Posted 8/3/2013 9:25:46 AM | message detail
MarioSuperstar posted...
I am #8 on expert challenge and I have banked all that I possibly could the normal way.

Don't ever chicken out guys. Ever.


What does that mean
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#123 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/3/2013 9:26:02 AM | message detail
PlasmaKappa posted...
0 points club rep


0 points because I switched Lee/Meat Boy the wrong way at the last minute :(
#124 | ffmasterjose | Posted 8/3/2013 9:26:03 AM | message detail
name recognition factor. Pac-Man's got this
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The Great GameFAQs Character Battle IX contest: 46/51 pts
NP:Mr. Game & Watch > Lee Everett > Meat Boy
#125 | MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/3/2013 9:26:04 AM | message detail
pjbasis posted...
I can't imagine The Boss losing or only barely beating Pac-man so I also have Drake winning next, but it's scary


Well, he beat Ocelot...
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#126 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/3/2013 9:26:22 AM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
I'm surprised Lee is doing this well. I didn't know if he'd be stronger than Clementine since she seems to get more talk.


It is kind of sad that I consider this a really 'impressive' performance for a black guy here, especially since all these guys should be horribly weak.

This *does* look like a small ray of sunshine for Drake > Pac because he's not getting completely rocked here and Pac > Drake is similar in principle to G&W > Everett
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#127 | tennisboy213 | Posted 8/3/2013 9:27:15 AM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
PlasmaKappa posted...
0 points club rep


0 points because I switched Lee/Meat Boy the wrong way at the last minute :(

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POKEFEAR
#128 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/3/2013 9:28:31 AM | message detail
The main thing that should give you a really bad lack of confidence in Drake before adding UC3 to the mix is that the Boss beat him in a laugher in the middle of the day. The Boss may have one of the worst day votes in the history of these contests. Make that a 24-hour match and Drake is possibly just getting flat-out blown out.
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#129 | Crimson Dragoon | Posted 8/3/2013 9:29:01 AM | message detail
pjbasis posted...
I can't imagine The Boss losing or only barely beating Pac-man so I also have Drake winning next, but it's scary


So you think The Boss is a tier or two above Ocelot in the MGS hierarchy?

Because that seems ridiculous to me.
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#130 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/3/2013 9:29:25 AM | message detail
In more ways than one - Drake is also a realistic human against two hilarious looking video game mascot types.
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#131 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/3/2013 9:31:29 AM | message detail
I thought Game & Watch > Lee > Meat Boy was obvious for quite some time, but I chickened out and no-picked in the final hour (I changed my pick in the last five minutes, in fact). Really should have known better...
#132 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/3/2013 9:31:43 AM | message detail
Well, Drake should be way out of Everett's league and, let's be honest with ourselves here - we don't even know if Pac-Man is stronger than G&W.
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#133 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/3/2013 9:32:04 AM | message detail
Drake doesn't have RacistFAQs holding him back, though, and he's a lot more well-known than Lee is regardless.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#134 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/3/2013 9:32:38 AM | message detail
Current Ocelot would beat Pac-man really easily. He's definitely gotten stronger since then.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#135 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/3/2013 9:33:12 AM | message detail
The problem in Drake/Steve/Pac comes where I don't trust GameFAQs to vote for characters whose games likely have significantly below 50% playrate... against a character who literally has 100% for recognition, if not his games.

I would still be very, very surprised if Drake pulled it out.
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#136 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/3/2013 9:36:44 AM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Well, Drake should be way out of Everett's league and, let's be honest with ourselves here - we don't even know if Pac-Man is stronger than G&W.


I'd be real surprised if he was... though to be perfectly frank I didn't use any stats for this match (or I might have picked Drake!). Pac-Man just feels like he should win comfortably, and I don't have a good enough read on the UC fanbase to really contradict that.
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#137 | superange128 | Posted 8/3/2013 9:38:18 AM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
In more ways than one - Drake is also a realistic human against two hilarious looking video game mascot types.


I still feel like youre overestimating the stick out factor
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#138 | turbopuns | Posted 8/3/2013 9:39:34 AM | message detail
you fools pac is going to R3
#139 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/3/2013 9:40:11 AM | message detail
Drake is the kind of poor sap Pac has upset time and time again.

Picking Drake is picking against history here.
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#140 | MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/3/2013 9:40:50 AM | message detail
UC3 didn't seem too big on GameFAQs, and I think UC2 was well out within the year for Drake to have gained when he faced The Boss.

Is there any reason for Drake to become more well-known for a hit that was less of a smash than UC2? Is he the kind of character to even pull that off?

If not, then Pac-Man wins.
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#141 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/3/2013 9:43:44 AM | message detail
MegatokyoEd posted...
Drake is the kind of poor sap Pac has upset time and time again.

Picking Drake is picking against history here.


Pac-Man has only upset a character like Drake one time (Ocelot in 2005). He lost to Kefka in 2003 and lost to Big Boss for second place in 2007. He did beat Ness (who got crushed by Mewtwo) for second place in 2008, but that's hardly the same scenario or the same type of character he's dealing with here.
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#142 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/3/2013 9:44:37 AM | message detail
Pac > Ness also sticks out heavily in my mind. Obviously Ness was getting Nintendo SFFed, but Pac gets heavy Nintendo SFF too, and he still won that rather easily.
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#143 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/3/2013 9:46:48 AM | message detail
This is actually giving me more confidence in Drake than I had 40 minutes ago. Lee already has 46% against G&W, and it looks like he could be upping that throughout the day. Lee's game has a playrate that probably makes Uncharted look like Tetris, yet he's doing this well against a character who is recognizable to anyone familiar with Smash Bros.

Also, Lee is all of a sudden making cuts and stalls. At this rate, this will look extremely damn respectable.
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#144 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/3/2013 9:47:09 AM | message detail
Also the way Pac-Man/Kefka went down usually causes me to think of him as winning that match, especially considering how high the site was on Square and how preposterously the board was trying to get him over the top that match.

I know that doesn't make me right, but still.
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#145 | creativename | Posted 8/3/2013 9:47:47 AM | message detail
MarioSuperstar posted...
I am #8 on expert challenge and I have banked all that I possibly could the normal way.

Don't ever chicken out guys. Ever.

Indeed. People on here greatly overrate taking "risks". That has always been the case in the Oracle as well.

In the Oracle lots of people make picks they don't really believe in to try and snag a top 5 or #1 prediction. I have among the highest ever for both those, despite almost always making the safe pick. Accuracy is more important than choosing risks just for the sake of.

In the Expert, banking is very underrated. Because mathematically, if you make a pick in a hard to call match just to take a risk, you will probably end up with negative points.

Taking the obvious 1st if there is one and banking the other two spots is a strong play. If you think any picks are almost random because they are so hard to pick, bank. In tough matches most will end up scoring negative so you will be fine.

But people aren't good at knowing when to fold.

Taking risks is more important late in the contest because point totals increase a lot. Getting the late round matches right is what will win in the Expert and bracket contests.
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#146 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/3/2013 9:49:25 AM | message detail
Regarding McDudes bombing. This isn't necessarily a new shift relative to 2010. Back in 2008, Nathan Drake got destroyed by CATS. GameFAQs has always been willing to give these characters low support. Most of the bombing McDudes would still be just as bad in 2010. Drake has at least shown he can draw minor support when GameFAQs is hostile towards characters like him.

He's still not beating Pac-man but I don't think it'll be because he's significantly worse than he was last time. He's going to lose because Pac-man might be stronger and that he's the type of opponent Pac-Man does best against.
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#147 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/3/2013 9:50:39 AM | message detail
They lose because this site clings for nostalgia.Every modern game sucks compared to old games even if they obscure ones.
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#148 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/3/2013 9:54:20 AM | message detail
Hmm, yeah, Lee is really putting pressure on G&W right now. Still seems to be no real chance he can actually drop it, but it looks real bad if G&W is close to Pac.

I really don't think that, though, but it's food for thought.
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#149 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/3/2013 9:55:23 AM | message detail
It all depends on the character, the game, the word of mouth, etc. Apart from being black (which I doubt does anything to his benefit), Lee is about as generic looking a dude with as generic looking a name as one can possibly get, and hell, at this point, he actually can come back and make this pretty close (two cuts and some stalls already). Lee should be getting crushed by a Smashster like G&W, yet he's doing quite well for himself.

Drake may not have the cult-like indie word of mouth that Lee has, but he should just naturally be much stronger, and over the past three or so years, few characters have gotten as much exposure. I think he's surpassed Kratos as Sony's guy over the last stretch of this generation.
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#150 | MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/3/2013 9:55:26 AM | message detail
The thing is, while Drake > Lee obviously, that still isn't saying a lot.

I truly don't think Drake became that much more recognizable or likeable by UC3.

If Drake beats Pac-Man, I'd probably have to accept that he would beat The Boss, too.

And I simply don't think he's one of those timeless characters.
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