Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1090

#1 | PoncedeLeonhart | Posted 8/3/2013 5:33:44 AM | message detail
RacistFAQs, GenericFAQs, and FurryFAQs all in the days ahead. Good times.

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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#2 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/3/2013 5:34:45 AM | message detail
I am glad that a Zelda character is doing so badly.Still I would like Groose and Epona to change places.
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#3 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/3/2013 5:35:34 AM | message detail
Groose and Epona changing places would've been nice because it would've meant Mordin would've won a match.
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#4 | PrivateBiscuit1 | Posted 8/3/2013 5:36:27 AM | message detail
I can't believe you guys actually let LMS into these topics.
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#5 | Lopen | Posted 8/3/2013 5:36:56 AM | message detail
The Epona vs Red Hare fanfiction would be legendary no doubt
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#6 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/3/2013 5:39:00 AM | message detail
PrivateBiscuit1 posted...
I can't believe you guys actually let LMS into these topics.


LMS would invade whether people replied to him or not.

Trust me.
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#7 | Lopen | Posted 8/3/2013 5:39:44 AM | message detail
Don't blame me I took a many year hiatus from these things and then he was here when I came back.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#8 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/3/2013 5:40:15 AM | message detail
Epona vs Red Hare.Now that would be an awesome match.
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#9 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/3/2013 5:40:21 AM | message detail
I think most people took a 2-3 year hiatus from this thing...!
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#10 | Lopen | Posted 8/3/2013 5:41:19 AM | message detail
Hey I never know with you stat kids

You could've been discussing Batman vs Link for 3 years for all I know
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#11 | ZinsanityCraze | Posted 8/3/2013 5:42:02 AM | message detail
3 down, 4 to go.

If you put someone like Sub Zero instead of John Marston, i would have pulled the trigger.
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#12 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/3/2013 5:42:04 AM | message detail
Nope, we had two solid years of Luster trend charts on meaningless POTDs.

And a couple weeks' worth of discussion whenever we had GOTY.
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#13 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/3/2013 5:53:48 AM | message detail
Hey Squirrel Gate don't know if you see that.You have the last 0 bracket.I want to ask you why you didn't picked Kefka in that match.The other 5 zero brackets got owned there but you survived.So why you didn't picked him?
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#14 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/3/2013 5:59:11 AM | message detail
I think you guys are a little too much picky on LMS
It got the point of "do you even know what generic means" even when you know full well what he means

I don't think there is a female main character that I would consider generic looking
Which I can't say the same about the male ones from western games (sorry I don't know the difference between Infamous main character and Uncharted main character)
If I really really had to name the most generic looking female main character in the contest,I would say Clair Redfield
#15 | Dr_Coffee | Posted 8/3/2013 6:21:13 AM | message detail
Impressive by Yoshimitsu

Sora is officially on notice

Scorpion only lost by 10% but Gigamesh will hurt Sora more than Aya. Plus Scorpion only had Mortal Kombat, Yoshimitsu is from Tekken AND Soul Calibur
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#16 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/3/2013 6:27:44 AM | message detail
Lu Bu has as much on Yoshimitsu as Scorpion got on Sora. Pretty sure Sora will be okay.

Nanis23 posted...
It got the point of "do you even know what generic means" even when you know full well what he means


Yes, we were aware of what he was trying to say, and he was completely wrong, so that's why the conversation went the way it did, which is the way it usually goes.
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#17 | Squirrelgate | Posted 8/3/2013 6:37:14 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
Hey Squirrel Gate don't know if you see that.You have the last 0 bracket.I want to ask you why you didn't picked Kefka in that match.The other 5 zero brackets got owned there but you survived.So why you didn't picked him?


I had just assumed that Ryu would come in last from the beginning; It never crossed my mind that maybe Zack and Kefka would SFF.
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#18 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/3/2013 6:38:04 AM | message detail
Squirrelgate posted...
Safer_777 posted...
Hey Squirrel Gate don't know if you see that.You have the last 0 bracket.I want to ask you why you didn't picked Kefka in that match.The other 5 zero brackets got owned there but you survived.So why you didn't picked him?


I had just assumed that Ryu would come in last from the beginning; It never crossed my mind that maybe Zack and Kefka would SFF.


Do you lose your zero bracket this round?
#19 | Haste_2 | Posted 8/3/2013 6:49:49 AM | message detail
Man, I should never have listened to the board's persuasions on Groose. Then again, it's also my fault for not doing the research on Yoshimitsu (i.e. he's in Soul Calibur II).

Yoshimitsu vs. Nightmare, who would you take?
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#20 | Ytterbium_70 | Posted 8/3/2013 6:58:00 AM | message detail
Haste_2 posted...
Man, I should never have listened to the board's persuasions on Groose. Then again, it's also my fault for not doing the research on Yoshimitsu (i.e. he's in Soul Calibur II).

Yoshimitsu vs. Nightmare, who would you take?


I'd safely take Yoshimitsu just for the dual-fanbase factor.

After seeing this I wonder how Voldo would do in a contest
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#21 | Squirrelgate | Posted 8/3/2013 7:01:27 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Squirrelgate posted...
Safer_777 posted...
Hey Squirrel Gate don't know if you see that.You have the last 0 bracket.I want to ask you why you didn't picked Kefka in that match.The other 5 zero brackets got owned there but you survived.So why you didn't picked him?


I had just assumed that Ryu would come in last from the beginning; It never crossed my mind that maybe Zack and Kefka would SFF.


Do you lose your zero bracket this round?


No. But I do get -6 on my expert on this account. >_>
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#22 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/3/2013 7:04:26 AM | message detail
Match LII: (3) Lee Everett vs. (16) Meat Boy vs. (25) Mr. Game & Watch

Previous Contest

Lee Everett – N/A
N/A

Meat Boy – N/A
N/A

Mr. Game & Watch – N/A
N/A

Analysis

This is another match where I no longer siding with my bracket. After watching Clementine getting crushed by Spyro I no longer have faith in Lee. I would take Spyro to win this match, but by the amount he won and Clementine is more of a fan favourite than Lee there is no way he has any strength. I will not say he has no chance considering his opponents, but at the same time I have no trouble seeing him finish last.

I feel people have been ignoring Meat Boy in this match. Sure he is a downloadable character, but Super Meat Boy is one of the more popular download only games. We do not have much information on him, but his game was not a total disaster in the game of the year and he was half decent in the rivalry contest, none of which should be used as proof, but in a match like this it may be enough to win.

Mr. Game & Watch is one of those characters that would tell us how much Melee would minimally help you. Unlike Marth and Captain Falcon Mr. Game & Watch is not a fan favourite in the game so he is unlikely to be as strong as they are. The best example I can think of without Nintendo SFF or LFF is Nana in 2008 where after you adjust Sephiroth/Tifa LFF by using Ratchet places Nana at 15% against Sephiroth. Personally I feel if the entrant was called Ice Climbers they would perform better, but it is a something to work with. Master Hand could be another character to work with; he got 60/40 by Dr. Robotnik who looked pretty good this contest, but how much that translates to 2005 is questionable.

I am going to go with Mr. Game & Watch in this match, at the very least the average voter is most likely to have heard of him which is something I see being enough to win here. Honestly this match could finish in any order and I would not be surprised.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Lee Everett > Mr. Game & Watch and Meat Boy

charmander6000’s Prediction: Mr. Game & Watch – 40.83%, Meat Boy – 32.37%, Lee Everett – 26.80%
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 43/50 Today's Picks: Groose and Lee Everett
#23 | lightsout06 | Posted 8/3/2013 7:20:47 AM | message detail
I still have hope for Lee. At least he only has RacistFAQs against him. Clem had Racist and ChildFAQs against her.
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#24 | CasanovaZelos | Posted 8/3/2013 7:42:04 AM | message detail
Tharja's still probably the weakest round 2 entrant, right?
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#25 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/3/2013 7:44:21 AM | message detail
Yup
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 43/50 Today's Picks: Groose and Lee Everett
#26 | Qwaar | Posted 8/3/2013 7:44:53 AM | message detail
I have no idea what is going to happen in this match. I anticipate another 6 point drop. This division is killing me.
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#27 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/3/2013 7:46:55 AM | message detail
G&W > No Pick > No Pick

I'm reasonably confident in Game and Watch, but hell if I know how the other two will go.
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#28 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/3/2013 7:49:28 AM | message detail | (edited)
banking is for losers

go big or go home
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#29 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/3/2013 7:51:12 AM | message detail
TheKoolAidShoto posted...
banking is for losers

go big or go home


I am quite satisfied with the 0 points I have for this match as opposed to all the people with -4 or -6 here.
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#30 | eaglesarebeasts | Posted 8/3/2013 8:00:46 AM | message detail
I don't really understand G&W support. I really think that he comes in third next match.
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#31 | swordz9 | Posted 8/3/2013 8:02:59 AM | message detail
I'd love to see Game & Watch be destroyed.
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#32 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/3/2013 8:04:12 AM | message detail
Imagine if Ridley was in Lu Bu's place.
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#33 | Qwaar | Posted 8/3/2013 8:04:37 AM | message detail
I've got Lee winning in my main bracket, currently have Game & Watch -> Lee -> Meat Boy in expert.
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#34 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/3/2013 8:05:07 AM | message detail
eaglesarebeasts posted...
I don't really understand G&W support. I really think that he comes in third next match.


Same, but it's mostly a hunch. Even reading char's analysis it felt weird to see him pick Mr. Game & Watch for first.

Also I'll be supporting Meat Boy.
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#35 | Ringworm | Posted 8/3/2013 8:05:51 AM | message detail
I'm guessing I'll be on the leaderboard for 1 match, surely at least a couple got the current match wrong on the leaderboard, and I'd be at most 2-3 spots off right now (I'm one of the 13 ties and picked Yoshimitsu). No idea what will happen with the next match, but not sure Lee is favourite to win any more, which is who I have. I have 0 faith in any of them, unfortunately 1 will make it through.

What's annoying is I should be in 6th right now. Chose CATS for a joke pick figuring 1 point wouldn't make much difference. Would have really annoyed me if I missed the leaderboard completely because of that and I nearly did. Seriously hope at least one of the top 5 got the current match right - would hate to miss out on what would have been top spot because of that joke pick.
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#36 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/3/2013 8:10:50 AM | message detail
For me, I think Game and Watch has some recognizability from his Smash appearances, and that's all he needs to get past two recent characters that really have no reason to do well at this point.

This is as opposed to this match, where the Nintendo option had nothing but his third rate game to go off, and his opponents were recognizable characters from some very well-known and respected series, in spite of the fact that they aren't what you necessarily think of when you see GameFAQs.
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#37 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/3/2013 8:13:09 AM | message detail
I like how people were arguing against me on Mr. Game & Watch and Lightning losing even though today's match provides some support for my theory (if a Zelda character can lose to these chumps, all that's left is to see a Smash character and an FF character crap the bed).
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#38 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/3/2013 8:14:14 AM | message detail
Yeah keep making false correlations with vague assumptions

That way you can be right no matter what actually happens
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#39 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/3/2013 8:15:03 AM | message detail
For what it's worth I'm beginning to have second thoughts. Kind of.
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#40 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/3/2013 8:17:05 AM | message detail
I think equating Groose as a Zelda character is your really big mistake in that correlation.

He is a Zelda: Skyward Sword character. There is a difference.
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#41 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/3/2013 8:18:43 AM | message detail | (edited)
third rate character from third rate zelda vs third rate character from first rate smash(or second rate smash to brawl's first rate lulz this website)
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#42 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/3/2013 8:21:56 AM | message detail
Honestly I'm hoping that more people have heard of G&W compared to the other two.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 43/50 Today's Picks: Groose and Lee Everett
#43 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/3/2013 8:22:34 AM | message detail
TheKoolAidShoto posted...
third rate character from first rate smash(or second rate smash to brawl's first rate lulz this website)


G&W's in both of them, so either way, it's true!
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#44 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/3/2013 8:22:46 AM | message detail
_SecretSquirrel posted...
I think equating Groose as a Zelda character is your really big mistake in that correlation.

He is a Zelda: Skyward Sword character. There is a difference.


You could similarly say that Mr. Game & Watch is best known for being a late unlockable character.
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#45 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/3/2013 8:25:42 AM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Honestly I'm hoping that more people have heard of G&W compared to the other two.


Honestly, that makes sense. Like I said however, going off the pic I feel that he's the least recognizable character in the match.
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#46 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/3/2013 8:25:54 AM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Honestly I'm hoping that more people have heard of G&W compared to the other two.


99% of the people coming to this site probably have heard of him. Against guys like Lee Everett and Meat Boy that should be enough.
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#47 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/3/2013 8:26:59 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
charmander6000 posted...
Honestly I'm hoping that more people have heard of G&W compared to the other two.


Honestly, that makes sense. Like I said however, going off the pic I feel that he's the least recognizable character in the match.


wut
#48 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/3/2013 8:27:25 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Like I said however, going off the pic I feel that he's the least recognizable character in the match.


This is total nonsense. G&W has an instantly recognizable design.
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#49 | CasanovaZelos | Posted 8/3/2013 8:27:30 AM | message detail
I seriously want to know who hasn't at least heard of Super Meat Boy. He's a title character of a million seller, and the game was fairly talked about when it came out.
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#50 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/3/2013 8:29:46 AM | message detail
hylianknight3 posted...
LinkMarioSamus posted...
charmander6000 posted...
Honestly I'm hoping that more people have heard of G&W compared to the other two.


Honestly, that makes sense. Like I said however, going off the pic I feel that he's the least recognizable character in the match.


wut


Yeah, even I should have probably had that reaction. I think I was hoping for Mr. Game & Watch to get a specific pic, like how Crash and Spyro got iconic pics that screamed "VOTE ME!!!" - I just don't feel that way about Mr. Game & Watch in this pic compared to the other two.

You could say that Lee stands out for being the only human character against the meat square and the LCD man. Stupidly enough, in the next match that will change when Pac-Man is the only non-humanoid character there, although I'm hoping that Drake's pedigree will carry him to an easy win there.
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