Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1088

#401 | Gooper Blooper | Posted 8/2/2013 11:08:13 AM | message detail
ZeldaTPLink posted...
What is wrong with this division?

Absolutely nothing! Debatable matches and surprising results are what make this contest worth watching.
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And then the car wash cost five dollars.
#402 | Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 8/2/2013 11:08:21 AM | message detail
Holy crap Gilgamesh
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Oh SuperNiceDog's doing it again dude.
SuperNiceDog, you ain't no pimp dude
#403 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/2/2013 11:13:15 AM | message detail
GIRRUGAMESHU
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#404 | superange128 | Posted 8/2/2013 11:15:30 AM | message detail
well at least I got another FF "upset" right (like Kefka)

unfortunately the other upsets I'm calling in Division 6 probably won't pan out and I still lost a bunch of 1 pointers for calling other silly upsets earlier on
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#405 | WhiteLens | Posted 8/2/2013 11:32:53 AM | message detail
I took Gilgamesh and never looked back, makes me wish Bahamut got in to see how he would do, but no one from the KHAQ board tried to get a rally here, me included. >_>
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#406 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/2/2013 11:34:33 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
I will ask again. If Dissidia games were on PS 3 would that be enough for Cloud to beat Link or at least Sephiroth to beat Snake?


If Dissidia was as big as Smash Bros., the answer would be a triumphant yes. However, if it was simply the same Dissidia as what's on the PSP but on the PS3, the answer is a big no, because Dissidia is much closer to PlayStation All-Stars in critical reception and popularity than to any Smash Bros.
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Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC
#407 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/2/2013 11:36:09 AM | message detail
I don't understand why Smash Bros is so popular.Okay it has big names in it.But still.
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#408 | Haste_2 | Posted 8/2/2013 11:36:23 AM | message detail
The only reason I picked Booker was because of Big Daddy's past good performance. But Bioshock in general has been awful this year and I never forecasted that. After seeing how the others did, Gilgamesh dominating like this is no surprise.
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#409 | Crossfiyah | Posted 8/2/2013 11:36:42 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
I don't understand why Smash Bros is so popular.Okay it has big names in it.But still.


It's fun?
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BUTTS
#410 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/2/2013 11:37:06 AM | message detail
I wouldn't even consider getting more things like Bahamut in until we see how Gilgy does next round. This pack might be damn near worthless.
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#411 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/2/2013 11:39:53 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
I don't understand why Smash Bros is so popular.Okay it has big names in it.But still.


Because everyone always wanted to see the big names from Nintendo duke it out with each other. I'm not entirely sure on that but I'm largely positive it's true.

Furthermore, Super Smash Bros. Melee was by far the GameCube launch (window) game with the most impact, not only serving as a showcase of the console's abilities back then but still being played competitively today. This legacy led to the sequel, Super Smash Bros. Brawl, to receive loads of hype, and while for a vocal few it backfired, most Melee fans ended up liking Brawl even more due to how f***ing huge and crazy the game was.
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Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC
#412 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/2/2013 11:40:10 AM | message detail
I mean, even if we set Booker equal to Lloyd Irving (a verrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrry dubious proposition to say the least) that puts Gilgamesh on the level of, like... Vault Boy from Fallout 3.

And if Booker's as scrubby as I fear he is, 58% on him is pretty shoddy.
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#413 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/2/2013 11:42:23 AM | message detail
Gilgamesh and Booker both being weaksauce makes sense.

Man, Sora's going to look amazing next round. His opponents next round are almost certain to be weaker than his first round opponents - Aya Brea could probably beat EVERYONE from the Groose/Lu Bu/Yoshimitsu triforce of doom.
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#414 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/2/2013 12:07:45 PM | message detail
AlecTrevelyan006 posted...
LOLContests posted...
Booker was still the favorite in the Oracle Challenge. I know, cause I've started a system where in matches like this one where the two characters are virtually equals in my personal X-Stats, instead of going with my gut I go with the consensus, and I checked the Oracle Challenge predix from the past couple of days to see if things had changed, and they hadn't changed enough to make Gilgamesh the favorite

Only started this system around Division 3, and it's been working out for me so far. Unfortunately I didn't start it earlier, or I'd have been on the Leaderboard by now!

Had Gilgamesh in my bracket at least.


Has anybody ever done a "Oracle consensus" oracle run? Just put the average of everybody's prediction? I can't imagine it would win but I'm interested in how well it would do...

My expert picks are mostly based upon the gurus,spread betting topic,crew analysis topic and random polls (and some messages in those stat topics)
I'm 35# at the Leaderboard just by doing what most people consider "the right choices"
#415 | LinkLegend27 | Posted 8/2/2013 12:08:27 PM | message detail
Who was the guru favorite for this one?
#416 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/2/2013 12:09:59 PM | message detail
Booker. Thank goodness the Guru consensuses are primed to start missing now, until today the Guru Cookie was keeping pace with or beating every other bracket in the Guru Contest.
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#417 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/2/2013 12:10:16 PM | message detail
Booker for guru, Gilgamesh for expert.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 42/48 Today's Picks: Sora and Booker
#418 | Nintendoboy375 | Posted 8/2/2013 12:11:58 PM | message detail
Today was the one day that I didn't listen to the overwhelming crew support for Gilgamesh.

With any luck, I won't drop off completely from the Expert Leaderboard. This division has been really bad for me.
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#419 | Crossfiyah | Posted 8/2/2013 12:17:42 PM | message detail
Question for people: Would you consider 4500 votes against Link as more impressive than 7500 against Spyro?
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BUTTS
#420 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/2/2013 12:30:06 PM | message detail
Eh, not really. Link's considerable anti-votes these days can probably account for a huge chunk of 4500 votes.
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#421 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/2/2013 12:39:26 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5143
At least 3463 anti votes for Link
I don't think any LoZ fan actually want to vote for Tingle over Link...
#422 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/2/2013 12:39:42 PM | message detail
Why male leads on western games suck?Seriously they all doing bad.
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#423 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/2/2013 12:42:58 PM | message detail
Because they are generic humans
No one cares about generic humans

(unless they get bigass sword or something)
#424 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/2/2013 12:46:32 PM | message detail
Smash Bros, Dissidia, Playstation All-Stars...

If I didn't know better, I'd say GameFAQs really loves crossover fighting games more than any other genre. These games have certainly done the characters in them wonders.

Hell, maybe it'd cause a couple Marvel characters to be stronger than Batman if we ever had that damn fictional contest.
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#425 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 8/2/2013 12:58:33 PM | message detail
Marvel characters in this contest would be awesome.
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Pts: 43/49 Today's Picks: Sora & Gilgamesh
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#426 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 8/2/2013 12:59:34 PM | message detail
Smash Bros. vs. Marvel
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Pts: 43/49 Today's Picks: Sora & Gilgamesh
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#427 | Achromatic | Posted 8/2/2013 12:59:59 PM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Because they are generic humans
No one cares about generic humans

(unless they get bigass sword or something)


Clearly someone has not played Bioshock Infinite.
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#428 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/2/2013 1:06:56 PM | message detail
Achromatic posted...
Nanis23 posted...
Because they are generic humans
No one cares about generic humans

(unless they get bigass sword or something)


Clearly someone has not played Bioshock Infinite.


Yeah, most of the voters.
#429 | WhiteLens | Posted 8/2/2013 1:07:08 PM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
I don't understand why Smash Bros is so popular.Okay it has big names in it.But still.


Because you didn't have friends to play with when the first game came out on N64 and continued to play with when Melee and Brawl came out.

It's probably the biggest name when it comes to local multiplayer. The only other games to come close are Mario Kart and Halo.
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#430 | Achromatic | Posted 8/2/2013 1:07:43 PM | message detail
hylianknight3 posted...
Achromatic posted...
Nanis23 posted...
Because they are generic humans
No one cares about generic humans

(unless they get bigass sword or something)


Clearly someone has not played Bioshock Infinite.


Yeah, most of the voters.


Eh, I think plenty of people probably played it, they just prefer Gilgamesh. My point is there can be reasons other than stupid ones.
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#431 | superange128 | Posted 8/2/2013 1:08:31 PM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
Smash Bros, Dissidia, Playstation All-Stars...

If I didn't know better, I'd say GameFAQs really loves crossover fighting games more than any other genre. These games have certainly done the characters in them wonders.

Hell, maybe it'd cause a couple Marvel characters to be stronger than Batman if we ever had that damn fictional contest.


Well I'll be honest I like these kind better on average since you have an attachment to at least 1 or a few characters as opposed to a game with totally new characters with not much story like Street Fighter
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#432 | Achromatic | Posted 8/2/2013 1:09:00 PM | message detail
WhiteLens posted...
Safer_777 posted...
I don't understand why Smash Bros is so popular.Okay it has big names in it.But still.


Because you didn't have friends to play with when the first game came out on N64 and continued to play with when Melee and Brawl came out.

It's probably the biggest name when it comes to local multiplayer. The only other games to come close are Mario Kart and Halo.


See, this is such a dick thing to say. I played Tekken with my friends, for example. We liked Tekken. "You didn't have any friends" geesh.
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#433 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/2/2013 1:32:08 PM | message detail
TheKoolAidShoto posted...
My entire reasoning on Lu Bu > Yoshi is Dynasty Warriors 8 just came out and it's #1 on the Most Wanted FAQs/#1 PS3 message board, so there must be a fanbase for it right


It's like I've hit a time warp and I'm back in 2004!
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#434 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/2/2013 1:38:20 PM | message detail | (edited)
Also, Zidane is noticeably stronger nowadays.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2882

He probably beats ALL of those guys now.

And LOL making adjustments based on absolutely nothing but pure conjecture

I really have hit a time warp and gone back to 2004 (Hello Games Contest "Adjusted Stats")

We don't make stats based on what we think. We make stats based on the available data. If there is no available data to draw from, then you leave it alone, and it's up to you to make your own judgments on those stats. If you think Zidane was SFF'd by Crono, then look at those stats and figure out where you think he should be.
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#435 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/2/2013 1:43:49 PM | message detail
Achromatic posted...
Nanis23 posted...
Because they are generic humans
No one cares about generic humans

(unless they get bigass sword or something)


Clearly someone has not played Bioshock Infinite.


Working on it...!
Just finished Bioshock and already halfway in Bioshock 2
(yeah I know i'm 3 years late but it's possible that Big Daddy was strong because..in the second game you play as one..?)
#436 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/2/2013 1:51:15 PM | message detail
MariaTaylor posted...
is this the first match that was actually close?


ahirsch101 posted...
Voted Kaim. This match might be more interesting today than the actual match.


red13n posted...
See these polls are great because you could conceivably vote for all 3. Not like the last one where there really werent any options.


Safer_777 posted...
Wow first topic I see that all 3 are so close.

Added bold mine on ahirsch’s post because sadly enough, it’s true; all three are above 30% in the match in question. “Sadly enough”, because that group of posts is quoted from the current “Who would you have sex with?” topic.
Figuring out which of the characters in the current match Board 8 is most attracted to is considerably more interesting than the match itself. Usually that topic series is only good for some laughs because of how many people pick the most ridiculous option possible (the hierarchy seems to be that furry option > robot option > pedo option; anything that could conceivably be female generally defeats a human male.)
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#437 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/2/2013 1:55:03 PM | message detail
Trend chart from the night match:

Time | Sora | Scorpion | Aya | Votes
0:05 | 48.69% | 40.45% | 10.86% | 267
1:00 | 48.56% | 33.77% | 17.67% | 5043
2:00 | 46.58% | 34.99% | 18.43% | 3001
3:00 | 46.98% | 33.74% | 19.28% | 2303
4:00 | 48.27% | 32.77% | 18.96% | 1788
5:00 | 44.74% | 35.19% | 20.07% | 1455
6:00 | 45.49% | 34.98% | 19.53% | 1418
7:00 | 46.14% | 33.98% | 19.88% | 1489
8:00 | 44.64% | 37.19% | 18.17% | 1745
9:00 | 45.33% | 36.99% | 17.68% | 1895
10:00 | 46.15% | 36.89% | 16.97% | 2063
11:00 | 47.59% | 36.45% | 15.96% | 2055
12:00 | 47.38% | 35.03% | 17.59% | 1967

Sora with the Power Hour, Aya with the night vote (Bless you, Europe), and Scorpion with the morning vote.

X-Stats:

Sora – 50.00%
Scorpion – 42.78%
Aya Brea – 27.98%

Sora's prediction percentage was 73.54%
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#438 | --Smurf-- | Posted 8/2/2013 1:59:08 PM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
Why male leads on western games suck?Seriously they all doing bad.


Because they're horribly generic and designed very similarly to target an identical audience.
http://i.imgur.com/P4YSzLO.jpg
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#439 | Crossfiyah | Posted 8/2/2013 2:40:59 PM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5143
At least 3463 anti votes for Link
I don't think any LoZ fan actually want to vote for Tingle over Link...


My point is whether Issac vs. Link is more impressive than Clementine vs. Spyro.

If it is an extrapolation for Meat Boy > Lee can be made.
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BUTTS
#440 | creativename | Posted 8/2/2013 3:01:53 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
I wouldn't even consider getting more things like Bahamut in until we see how Gilgy does next round. This pack might be damn near worthless.

Bahamut would crush Gilgamesh. There's no way that Gilgamesh is close to Bahamut in strength.

Bahamut is not only in most FF games, but he's actually badass and always one of the most powerful summons. He'd be low midcard IMO. Gilgamesh is probably still fodder.

Not_Wylvane posted...
Hell, maybe it'd cause a couple Marvel characters to be stronger than Batman

Not in a million years.
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#441 | creativename | Posted 8/2/2013 3:03:50 PM | message detail | (edited)
--Smurf-- posted...
Safer_777 posted...
Why male leads on western games suck?Seriously they all doing bad.


Because they're horribly generic and designed very similarly to target an identical audience.

...what the hell is Kirk doing on this list? o_O If anything Kirk created an archetype, he doesn't emulate one.
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#442 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/2/2013 3:12:44 PM | message detail
This match HAS to be the ultimatum on generic male characters - they're both losing horribly to an utter monstrosity.

And here I thought Gilgamesh would struggle to get votes because his pic did not look at all recognizable.
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#443 | raginbull911 | Posted 8/2/2013 3:22:23 PM | message detail
In my absence from these contests for the last 4-5 years, I've forgotten the golden rule of "in a battle of fodder, take the Final Fantasy/Pokemon character"
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#444 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/2/2013 3:23:31 PM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
This match HAS to be the ultimatum on generic male characters - they're both losing horribly to an utter monstrosity.

And here I thought Gilgamesh would struggle to get votes because his pic did not look at all recognizable.


To whom? People who know Gilgamesh can tell at a glance it's him. And any decent RPG site WILL know Gil.

creativename posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
I wouldn't even consider getting more things like Bahamut in until we see how Gilgy does next round. This pack might be damn near worthless.

Bahamut would crush Gilgamesh. There's no way that Gilgamesh is close to Bahamut in strength.

Bahamut is not only in most FF games, but he's actually badass and always one of the most powerful summons. He'd be low midcard IMO. Gilgamesh is probably still fodder.

Not_Wylvane posted...
Hell, maybe it'd cause a couple Marvel characters to be stronger than Batman

Not in a million years.


So is Gilgamesh though. I mean, run through his appearances for a sec.

FF5: Funny badass. His sacrifice is amazing.
FF8: Badass, no need for funny. Oneshots a guy who oneshotted a freakin' summon.
FF9: Uuuuugh terrible. Doesn't look anything like Gil at all!
FF12: Badass, optional boss fight that can be pretty hard.
FF13-2: Badass, once again a high tier optional boss.
FFT-0: Badass, people who've played it think his final form is the best fight in the game.

That's a pretty good list overall!
#445 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/2/2013 3:24:43 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
47------2------------100.00
46------31----------96.77
45------117--------99.15
44------151--------99.34
43------171--------97.08
42------246--------95.53
41------342--------88.60
40------429--------88.58
39------630--------84.60
38------810--------83.58
37------993--------83.08
36------1244------79.58
35------1250------78.40
34------1310------75.04
33------1342------77.50
32------1061------72.01
31------975--------69.85
30------786--------63.87
29------674--------61.57
28------565--------65.84
27------439--------59.00
26------339--------56.93
25------276--------53.62
24------254--------53.94
23------164--------49.39
22------142--------52.11
21------100--------49.00
20------81----------38.27
19------75----------46.67
18------57----------29.82
17------40----------45.00
16------40----------32.50
15------24----------33.33
14------18----------11.11
13------10----------10.00
12------11----------18.18
11------6------------16.67
10------7------------57.14
9--------2------------0.00
8--------2------------0.00
7--------2------------0.00
6--------1------------0.00
5--------3------------33.33
4--------18----------0.00
3--------1------------0.00
2--------4------------0.00
1--------8------------0.00
0--------1------------0.00

We lose a -2 (46 points), a -3 (45 points) and a -4 (44points) but no -1s. It was an easy match so high prediction percentages are expected. Mid tiers go pretty well with near 80% for prediction percentage. Tha gauntlet v.2013 is coming up so we're going to have a some big shake ups over the next few days especially with how vulnurable many of the favourite look.

1 person fall off the Top 49. elitemegamanX did not have Sora winning
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#446 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/2/2013 3:30:53 PM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
LinkMarioSamus posted...
This match HAS to be the ultimatum on generic male characters - they're both losing horribly to an utter monstrosity.

And here I thought Gilgamesh would struggle to get votes because his pic did not look at all recognizable.


To whom? People who know Gilgamesh can tell at a glance it's him. And any decent RPG site WILL know Gil.

creativename posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
I wouldn't even consider getting more things like Bahamut in until we see how Gilgy does next round. This pack might be damn near worthless.

Bahamut would crush Gilgamesh. There's no way that Gilgamesh is close to Bahamut in strength.

Bahamut is not only in most FF games, but he's actually badass and always one of the most powerful summons. He'd be low midcard IMO. Gilgamesh is probably still fodder.

Not_Wylvane posted...
Hell, maybe it'd cause a couple Marvel characters to be stronger than Batman

Not in a million years.


So is Gilgamesh though. I mean, run through his appearances for a sec.

FF5: Funny badass. His sacrifice is amazing.
FF8: Badass, no need for funny. Oneshots a guy who oneshotted a freakin' summon.
FF9: Uuuuugh terrible. Doesn't look anything like Gil at all!
FF12: Badass, optional boss fight that can be pretty hard.
FF13-2: Badass, once again a high tier optional boss.
FFT-0: Badass, people who've played it think his final form is the best fight in the game.

That's a pretty good list overall!


Well thanks for this. I knew absolutely nothing about Gilgamesh other than that he debuted in Final Fantasy V and was the only recurring character in the series prior to the contest. I didn't even know how he looked like.

And yet, I initially picked him to win in my bracket before the board convinced me to switch. Probably the 3rd match I've gotten wrong because of that (the other two being Draven and Kefka), although with the other two incorrect picks I picked something that was against the board (Handsome Jack and Otacon - yeah, you can tell I had no faith in Chrono Trigger whatsoever) and I would've gotten Crash's match wrong so I guess it's fine?
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#447 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/2/2013 3:35:10 PM | message detail
For the record LMS - if you think Gil is 'a weird thing', you owe it to yourself to play FF5 and FF8. Those were the first two appearances Gil ever had (FF8 was his first worldwide showing, FF5 is where he debuted), and he's amazing in both. It helps that both are damn fine games as well! Also, go listen to this IMO:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHbYIbleQP8

Dat Clash On The Big Bridge. Instant classic!
#448 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 8/2/2013 3:41:35 PM | message detail
So... Pac-man > Drake?
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#449 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/2/2013 3:45:16 PM | message detail
BK_Sheikah00 posted...
So... Pac-man > Drake?


Went with that. I'm not gonna say I'm 100% confident in it, but I'm OK with the odds I got.
#450 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/2/2013 3:45:19 PM | message detail
I hear mostly bad about FF8 and I'm not really interested in playing any of the Final Fantasies released before VI (at least XII and XIII I'd like to give a shot just because one of my best friends online considers them to be his top two in the series). Despite the former however, I still really want to give FF8 a shot, not only because of some notable fans it has on this board but also because the game itself just really interests me, as does the entire series from VI to X.

But I want to finish FF7 first. And right now I'm still really early in the game, pretty much at the first major difficulty wall (Mt. Nibel).
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Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC