Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1088

#351 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/2/2013 9:30:40 AM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Groose is a great character!


I am sure that some people believe that Zelda character 'Groose' is, indeed, a worthy character of note

whoever he is

alternatively it's an elaborate troll and my bracket is about to take another shot to the gut
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#352 | tgs2 | Posted 8/2/2013 9:30:57 AM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
Safer_777 posted...
So Dissidia helped all characters that were in NES and SNES FF games then?


Not just them, but it gave a nice boost to Zidane as well.


FF9 is basically a love letter to NES/SNES FFs though so it's technically one.
#353 | Achromatic | Posted 8/2/2013 9:31:46 AM | message detail
I don't think you know what technically means.
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#354 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/2/2013 9:31:47 AM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
Lesson: Don't just go by Guru List for Expert Picks. Most gurus likely swapped to Gilgamesh > Booker after watching newer characters bomb hard while old Square characters kick ass.

Anyway, any takers for the Gilgamesh > Sora upset train? Anyone? We've already had Kefka > Cloud, so anything's possible!


I've got fair odds of reaching number 1 on the leaderboard if the upset train this match kickstars works out for me, and yet I'd instantly torch my bracket to see Gil make it to round 3 (and then round 4 after dispatching Pikachu/Crono). Make it happen GameFAQS!
#355 | swordz9 | Posted 8/2/2013 9:33:00 AM | message detail
Any chance Dissidia helped Jecht and Yuna? Definitely doesn't seem to have helped Tidus any.
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#356 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/2/2013 9:34:52 AM | message detail
swordz9 posted...
Any chance Dissidia helped Jecht and Yuna? Definitely doesn't seem to have helped Tidus any.


What makes you say that? I thought Tidus did crazy well on Sub-Zero last contest we had, all things considered.

"Tidus was the favorite" yes this board is ridiculous we've established that
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#357 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/2/2013 9:36:07 AM | message detail
Groose's opponents have no Nintendo/Square ties whatsoever, and SS might be new and comparatively weak (as far as Zelda standards go), but enough of the Nintendo fanbase is familiar enough with Groose that winning shouldn't be a problem.
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#358 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/2/2013 9:36:11 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Groose is a great character!


I am sure that some people believe that Zelda character 'Groose' is, indeed, a worthy character of note

whoever he is

alternatively it's an elaborate troll and my bracket is about to take another shot to the gut


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ef4Wsxrn7y0&feature=player_detailpage&t=76

This is Groose, pretty much. It's not from his game and yet this is totally, totally him in a nutshell.

swordz9 posted...
Any chance Dissidia helped Jecht and Yuna? Definitely doesn't seem to have helped Tidus any.


Dissidia isn't boosting characters who are already New Square. You've got to understand that its power is introducing old characters to an audience that wasn't even alive when their games came out. It can maybe stop the decline of guys like Squall, Tidus and Cloud, but not boost them. It's why Zidane remained at chump level instead of Kefkaing and going on a tear after Dissidia released.
#359 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 8/2/2013 9:36:36 AM | message detail
I'm not counting out Booker purely because I respect Chris' dark powers.
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#360 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/2/2013 9:37:10 AM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
It's why Zidane remained at chump level instead of Kefkaing and going on a tear after Dissidia released.


...

...

...

...

really
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#361 | Achromatic | Posted 8/2/2013 9:37:32 AM | message detail
AlecTrevelyan006 posted...
I'm not counting out Booker purely because I respect Chris' dark powers.


I am not literally a magician you know.
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#362 | Crimson Dragoon | Posted 8/2/2013 9:38:10 AM | message detail
yessssssss it's about time I call an upset correctly
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#363 | xp1337 | Posted 8/2/2013 9:38:15 AM | message detail
AlecTrevelyan006 posted...
I'm not counting out Booker purely because I respect Chris' dark powers.

True story: I saw that and automatically felt better about sticking with Booker. >_>
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#364 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/2/2013 9:38:40 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
It's why Zidane remained at chump level instead of Kefkaing and going on a tear after Dissidia released.


...

...

...

...

really


What's so crazy about what I said? Zidane hasn't roided like Old Square, and the reason I provided (was already New Square and thus got no new fanbase to tap into) is sound.
#365 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/2/2013 9:40:09 AM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
It's why Zidane remained at chump level instead of Kefkaing and going on a tear after Dissidia released.


...

...

...

...

really


What's so crazy about what I said?


well if you must ask

Zidane hasn't roided like Old Square


this probably qualifies enough
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#366 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 8/2/2013 9:40:11 AM | message detail
Achromatic posted...
AlecTrevelyan006 posted...
I'm not counting out Booker purely because I respect Chris' dark powers.


I am not literally a magician you know.


If I weren't hitting the road soon I'd photoshop your face (don't know where I'd get it) onto that Yu-Gi-Oh Magician card and post that as a reply to this post.

Instead you can imagine it happening.
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#367 | Achromatic | Posted 8/2/2013 9:41:33 AM | message detail
To be fair I am moving tomorrow and am in fact feeling very generous. I just wanted some fun my last day before moving and bet the way I felt.

I don't mind losing these, it is more fun than never getting taken up on bets due to villainous alecs and their intelligence.
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#368 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/2/2013 9:42:42 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
It's why Zidane remained at chump level instead of Kefkaing and going on a tear after Dissidia released.


...

...

...

...

really


What's so crazy about what I said?


well if you must ask

Zidane hasn't roided like Old Square


this probably qualifies enough


Old Square (that feature in Dissidia) has become way stronger though. Like this is fact. Cecil was comfortably below the fodderline before Dissidia, and after he had a close as hell match with Knuckles which he wins in the night. Kefka was supposed to lose to Arthas and then he went and destroyed him before putting up great numbers on Bowser. Do we have any matches that prove Zidane boosted a lot and I missed them? The only thing I can think of is that Liquid/Alucard/Zidane/Ness match, but the following year Zidane impressed and defeated Shadow in a match nobody thought he could win.
#369 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/2/2013 9:44:44 AM | message detail
Does SBAllen even responds to PM's?
I notified him about the Expert Challenge Leaderboard graph...
It has become a mess and ultra-crowded
I'm afraid to know how it will look after the first match of the second round..
#370 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 8/2/2013 9:45:01 AM | message detail
Oh hey, Gilgamesh is winning, just like I always thought!

But oh that's right, as I said before, I apparently have Booker in my bracket and no idea why, didn't notice until a while into round 1. Really sucks, was so close to the leaderboard.

Oh well, at least it's just a single point.
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#371 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/2/2013 9:46:18 AM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Old Square (that feature in Dissidia) has become way stronger though. Like this is fact. Cecil was comfortably below the fodderline before Dissidia, and after he had a close as hell match with Knuckles which he wins in the night. Kefka was supposed to lose to Arthas and then he went and destroyed him before putting up great numbers on Bowser. Do we have any matches that prove Zidane boosted a lot and I missed them? The only thing I can think of is that Liquid/Alucard/Zidane/Ness match, but the following year Zidane impressed and defeated Shadow in a match nobody thought he could win.


I don't think you quite understand how weak Zidane was pre-Dissidia.

CATS (2005c) VS Zidane (2005c)

CATS has a strength of 19.24.
Zidane has a strength of 18.57.

CATS wins with 51.74% of the vote!

Zidane has gone from being fodderific to Ike-level strength, capable of easily dispatching characters like Ridley without breaking a sweat. He seriously roided.
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#372 | superange128 | Posted 8/2/2013 9:47:21 AM | message detail
using the X-stats calculator while forgetting Zidane had SFF with Crono
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#373 | Achromatic | Posted 8/2/2013 9:48:04 AM | message detail
Yeah they were lazy and didn't adjust Zidane.
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#374 | superange128 | Posted 8/2/2013 9:48:32 AM | message detail
swordz9 posted...
Any chance Dissidia helped Jecht and Yuna? Definitely doesn't seem to have helped Tidus any.


It probably helped Jecht since he had a much bigger role than the original game. Tidus and Yuna nah
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#375 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/2/2013 9:49:29 AM | message detail
superange128 posted...
using the X-stats calculator while forgetting Zidane had SFF with Crono


CT/FF9 SFF is nothing but conjecture. Zidane was sickly in his fourways too - the fact that Shadow bombed, evident in how Zidane folded in the following round, is not incompatible with this.
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#376 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/2/2013 9:50:14 AM | message detail
Achromatic posted...
Yeah they were lazy and didn't adjust Zidane.


...adjust using what? That was Zidane's only 1v1 contest appearance until 2010.
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#377 | Achromatic | Posted 8/2/2013 9:50:48 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Achromatic posted...
Yeah they were lazy and didn't adjust Zidane.


...adjust using what? That was Zidane's only 1v1 contest appearance until 2010.


Adjust using the "durr Crono clearly SFFs weaker Square characters."
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#378 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/2/2013 9:51:32 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Old Square (that feature in Dissidia) has become way stronger though. Like this is fact. Cecil was comfortably below the fodderline before Dissidia, and after he had a close as hell match with Knuckles which he wins in the night. Kefka was supposed to lose to Arthas and then he went and destroyed him before putting up great numbers on Bowser. Do we have any matches that prove Zidane boosted a lot and I missed them? The only thing I can think of is that Liquid/Alucard/Zidane/Ness match, but the following year Zidane impressed and defeated Shadow in a match nobody thought he could win.


I don't think you quite understand how weak Zidane was pre-Dissidia.

CATS (2005c) VS Zidane (2005c)

CATS has a strength of 19.24.
Zidane has a strength of 18.57.

CATS wins with 51.74% of the vote!

Zidane has gone from being fodderific to Ike-level strength, capable of easily dispatching characters like Ridley without breaking a sweat. He seriously roided.


Huh. Was it really Dissidia though? I know 4ways lolxstats are unreliable at best, but Zidane is basically right where 2010 puts him at with the 2008 stats. He's actually a little higher, but that can be probably chalked up to 4ways inflation. It seems really bizarre that he'd be able to pull a win so far above his punching level on a 4way year and then legitimize it on a 1v1 just because of Dissidia.
#379 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/2/2013 9:52:05 AM | message detail
Achromatic posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Achromatic posted...
Yeah they were lazy and didn't adjust Zidane.


...adjust using what? That was Zidane's only 1v1 contest appearance until 2010.


Adjust using the "durr Crono clearly SFFs weaker Square characters."


This isn't a valid answer. I'm talking about a mechanical process. What do you do to Zidane? How do you determine the level of this postulated SFF? What is your methodology?
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#380 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/2/2013 9:52:44 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
superange128 posted...
using the X-stats calculator while forgetting Zidane had SFF with Crono


CT/FF9 SFF is nothing but conjecture. Zidane was sickly in his fourways too - the fact that Shadow bombed, evident in how Zidane folded in the following round, is not incompatible with this.


Got ninja'd so might as well post this - fair enough. 4ways also overrate Duke too. I do believe Zidane was probably above the fodderline on 2008, but it's likely Dissidia boosted him and made his strength legit in a non-gimmicky setting though.
#381 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/2/2013 9:53:04 AM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Old Square (that feature in Dissidia) has become way stronger though. Like this is fact. Cecil was comfortably below the fodderline before Dissidia, and after he had a close as hell match with Knuckles which he wins in the night. Kefka was supposed to lose to Arthas and then he went and destroyed him before putting up great numbers on Bowser. Do we have any matches that prove Zidane boosted a lot and I missed them? The only thing I can think of is that Liquid/Alucard/Zidane/Ness match, but the following year Zidane impressed and defeated Shadow in a match nobody thought he could win.


I don't think you quite understand how weak Zidane was pre-Dissidia.

CATS (2005c) VS Zidane (2005c)

CATS has a strength of 19.24.
Zidane has a strength of 18.57.

CATS wins with 51.74% of the vote!

Zidane has gone from being fodderific to Ike-level strength, capable of easily dispatching characters like Ridley without breaking a sweat. He seriously roided.


Huh. Was it really Dissidia though? I know 4ways lolxstats are unreliable at best, but Zidane is basically right where 2010 puts him at with the 2008 stats. He's actually a little higher, but that can be probably chalked up to 4ways inflation. It seems really bizarre that he'd be able to pull a win so far above his punching level on a 4way year and then legitimize it on a 1v1 just because of Dissidia.


His placement in the 2010 stats is conjecture. He's behind Mario/Ike SFF.
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#382 | Achromatic | Posted 8/2/2013 9:53:06 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Achromatic posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Achromatic posted...
Yeah they were lazy and didn't adjust Zidane.


...adjust using what? That was Zidane's only 1v1 contest appearance until 2010.


Adjust using the "durr Crono clearly SFFs weaker Square characters."


This isn't a valid answer. I'm talking about a mechanical process. What do you do to Zidane? How do you determine the level of this postulated SFF? What is your methodology?


Do some wizardry and make an educated guess. Leaving it alone like they did the first few years for new characters produced some silly results.
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#383 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/2/2013 9:58:17 AM | message detail
Regardless of what you think about the legitimacy of Zidane's past contest standings, anyway, it certainly doesn't amount to evidence that he didn't benefit from the Dissidia boost. He's just *looked* more impressive since then, anyway - going from being smashed by Ness to being on Ike's level and easily dispatching Ridley says it all to me.
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#384 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/2/2013 10:01:26 AM | message detail
Yeah, that's definitely something no one can contest. Zidane has only passed the eye test since Dissidia hit. I think he was already a really low midcarder or really high fodder before it, but Dissidia made it so he couldn't get upset by The Boss on a bad day and thus became actualy legit. We can agree it was nowhere close to what it did for Old Square though, right?
#385 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/2/2013 10:03:19 AM | message detail
Jury's still out. Honestly, if you assume Ridley's performance on Cloud was legit, Zidane arguably boosted more from Dissidia than anyone.
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#386 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/2/2013 10:05:07 AM | message detail
There's no reason for Zidane to collapse against Squirtle/Dante so how he does there should tell a lot.
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#387 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/2/2013 10:06:32 AM | message detail
MegatokyoEd posted...
There's no reason for Zidane to collapse against Squirtle/Dante so how he does there should tell a lot.


Zidane folds to 5%, Dissidia confirmed for contest troll, Kefka just randomly boosed like hell to screw with us harder.
#388 | FantomXD | Posted 8/2/2013 10:06:34 AM | message detail
I wonder why old square is boosting. Is it because emulation is easy now? nostalgia? or are the kiddies just leaving this site?
#389 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/2/2013 10:07:48 AM | message detail
FantomXD posted...
I wonder why old square is boosting. Is it because emulation is easy now? nostalgia? or are the kiddies just leaving this site?


Not all Old Square is boosting. Only the Old Square that's had new releases.
#390 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/2/2013 10:08:04 AM | message detail
Eh, last place factor kinda mars that match to me, especially since Dante/Squirtle could easily be a barnburner. Zidane may very well collapse to a percentage he would never score normally on Dante.
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#391 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/2/2013 10:10:01 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Eh, last place factor kinda mars that match to me, especially since Dante/Squirtle could easily be a barnburner. Zidane may very well collapse to a percentage he would never score normally on Dante.


If it's not close Zidane's % should be legit. If it's a very close match then yeah, we can assume whatever Zidane gets should be inflated by like five percent minimum.
#392 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/2/2013 10:18:45 AM | message detail
I wonder why old square is boosting. Is it because emulation is easy now? nostalgia? or are the kiddies just leaving this site?

New releases like Dissidia introduces these characters to new people. You could be a fan of the Final Fantasy series without playing any of the pre-Playstation games. FFIX is in a bit of the same situation where it came out after the PS2 was released so the more casual fanbase would have been less likely to have bought the game.
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#393 | FantomXD | Posted 8/2/2013 10:28:41 AM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
New releases like Dissidia introduces these characters to new people. You could be a fan of the Final Fantasy series without playing any of the pre-Playstation games. FFIX is in a bit of the same situation where it came out after the PS2 was released so the more casual fanbase would have been less likely to have bought the game.

Dissidia, huh? that makes sense.
#394 | Crossfiyah | Posted 8/2/2013 10:48:00 AM | message detail
Achromatic posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Achromatic posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Achromatic posted...
Yeah they were lazy and didn't adjust Zidane.


...adjust using what? That was Zidane's only 1v1 contest appearance until 2010.


Adjust using the "durr Crono clearly SFFs weaker Square characters."


This isn't a valid answer. I'm talking about a mechanical process. What do you do to Zidane? How do you determine the level of this postulated SFF? What is your methodology?


Do some wizardry and make an educated guess. Leaving it alone like they did the first few years for new characters produced some silly results.


You could use the other Square characters Crono has SFF'd in the past to come up with a reasonable factor which could be extrapolated to characters like Zidane as well. Wouldn't be exact but you could probably guesstimate Zidane's exact strength within 3 or 4%.
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#395 | BlAcK TuRtLe (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/2/2013 10:51:35 AM | message detail
UltimaterializerX posted...
tennisboy213 posted...
Even though Booker was the favorite with the gurus, I think Gilgamesh probably has more top tier expert picks.


The guru IS the top tier expert list.


I changed my expert to Gilgamesh (though I forgot to update my Oracle). After thinking about it last night, I realized Elizabeth and Big Daddy ****ting the bed and old Square impressing all contest spelt doom for the Guru brackets.
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#396 | ZeldaTPLink | Posted 8/2/2013 10:58:35 AM | message detail | (edited)
I enter gameFAQs for the first time in the day, and notice Gilgamesh is winning.

Oh well, it seems I lost another point.

So I check the bracket to see if the next match is an easy win. It's not. And the one after it isn't either. There isn't a single non debatable match left in division 6.

What is wrong with this division?
#397 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 8/2/2013 10:58:32 AM | message detail
I changed my expert to Gilgamesh when I filled it out at the same time as my bracket.

(shut up and allow me to enjoy my one successful guru upset)
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#398 | LOLContests | Posted 8/2/2013 10:59:03 AM | message detail
Booker was still the favorite in the Oracle Challenge. I know, cause I've started a system where in matches like this one where the two characters are virtually equals in my personal X-Stats, instead of going with my gut I go with the consensus, and I checked the Oracle Challenge predix from the past couple of days to see if things had changed, and they hadn't changed enough to make Gilgamesh the favorite

Only started this system around Division 3, and it's been working out for me so far. Unfortunately I didn't start it earlier, or I'd have been on the Leaderboard by now!

Had Gilgamesh in my bracket at least.
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#399 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 8/2/2013 11:05:49 AM | message detail
LOLContests posted...
Booker was still the favorite in the Oracle Challenge. I know, cause I've started a system where in matches like this one where the two characters are virtually equals in my personal X-Stats, instead of going with my gut I go with the consensus, and I checked the Oracle Challenge predix from the past couple of days to see if things had changed, and they hadn't changed enough to make Gilgamesh the favorite

Only started this system around Division 3, and it's been working out for me so far. Unfortunately I didn't start it earlier, or I'd have been on the Leaderboard by now!

Had Gilgamesh in my bracket at least.


Has anybody ever done a "Oracle consensus" oracle run? Just put the average of everybody's prediction? I can't imagine it would win but I'm interested in how well it would do...
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#400 | LOLContests | Posted 8/2/2013 11:08:05 AM | message detail
AlecTrevelyan006 posted...
LOLContests posted...
Booker was still the favorite in the Oracle Challenge. I know, cause I've started a system where in matches like this one where the two characters are virtually equals in my personal X-Stats, instead of going with my gut I go with the consensus, and I checked the Oracle Challenge predix from the past couple of days to see if things had changed, and they hadn't changed enough to make Gilgamesh the favorite

Only started this system around Division 3, and it's been working out for me so far. Unfortunately I didn't start it earlier, or I'd have been on the Leaderboard by now!

Had Gilgamesh in my bracket at least.


Has anybody ever done a "Oracle consensus" oracle run? Just put the average of everybody's prediction? I can't imagine it would win but I'm interested in how well it would do...


Oh sorry, I just meant I was using consensus to make Expert picks in matches where I personally consider things 50/50. I just used mentioned the Oracle Challenge cause it was an easy place to find what the consensus was.
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