Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1088

#151 | Achromatic | Posted 8/2/2013 1:05:12 AM | message detail
I am unsure what your point is, Ada Wong really brought that rivalry down!
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#152 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 8/2/2013 1:09:38 AM | message detail
Even excluding RR, we only have 3 human character matches. Plus there's no shame in getting 60-40'd by X because X is a total beast.
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#153 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/2/2013 2:43:37 AM | message detail
Not sure why people were fearing Scorpion here. He's noticeably weaker than Sub-Zero. If it had been Subby here instead, I seriously would have thought about pulling the trigger on it.

Well, I guess I understand why since Sora's bad at night, but even Sora being really bad at night was worth 45% on Bowser and that's more credit than I'd ever give Scorps.
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#154 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/2/2013 3:10:19 AM | message detail
Trend chart from last night's match:

Time | Pikachu | Lloyd | Daddy | Votes
0:05 | 56.56% | 25.70% | 17.74% | 716
1:00 | 54.82% | 25.26% | 19.92% | 5146
2:00 | 53.38% | 23.81% | 22.82% | 3037
3:00 | 53.07% | 24.22% | 22.72% | 2267
4:00 | 51.84% | 25.01% | 23.15% | 1767
5:00 | 51.74% | 23.40% | 24.87% | 1496
6:00 | 55.96% | 20.89% | 23.15% | 1326
7:00 | 52.72% | 22.51% | 24.77% | 1506
8:00 | 50.85% | 22.79% | 26.36% | 1711
9:00 | 54.34% | 21.89% | 23.76% | 1923
10:00 | 51.50% | 22.64% | 25.85% | 1961
11:00 | 51.45% | 22.87% | 25.68% | 2064
12:00 | 50.70% | 24.13% | 25.16% | 2138

Lloyd comes strong out of the gate as you would expect. He and Pikachu both nearly post the first hour as their best hour if not by a weirdly strong hour by Pikachu in the middle. Big Daddy does his best work in the second half and becomes the second character in a row to win more than half the hours and still lose.

X-Stats:

Pikachu – 50.00%
Lloyd Irving – 30.86%
Big Daddy – 30.70%

Pikachu's prediction percentage was 80.50%
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#155 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/2/2013 3:14:09 AM | message detail
Trend chart for the day match:

Time | Magus | Otacon | Jade | Votes
0:05 | 47.28% | 34.19% | 18.53% | 313
1:00 | 47.33% | 33.75% | 18.91% | 4515
2:00 | 47.19% | 34.44% | 18.37% | 3206
3:00 | 46.36% | 34.22% | 19.42% | 2899
4:00 | 47.23% | 34.19% | 18.58% | 2632
5:00 | 47.43% | 34.61% | 17.97% | 2332
6:00 | 48.22% | 34.95% | 16.83% | 2306
7:00 | 47.06% | 34.05% | 18.89% | 2038
8:00 | 48.50% | 33.63% | 17.87% | 1903
9:00 | 48.32% | 33.47% | 18.20% | 1670
10:00 | 49.85% | 32.45% | 17.70% | 1695
11:00 | 51.37% | 32.51% | 16.12% | 1538
12:00 | 48.30% | 33.01% | 18.69% | 1439

This was a pretty steady (read: boring) match, trends-wise. Only thing of note is that Magus did manage one 50%+ hour with CT's strong night vote after Europe went to bed.

X-Stats:

Magus – 50.00%
Hal “Otacon” Emmerich – 41.48%
Jade Curtiss – 27.64%

Magus's prediction percentage was 58.73%
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#156 | pjbasis | Posted 8/2/2013 3:37:18 AM | message detail
Maybe Red brought Blue down.

Ever think of THAT!?
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#157 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/2/2013 3:38:26 AM | message detail
Aw yeah Aya Brea just won an update over Scorpion
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#158 | Dr_Coffee | Posted 8/2/2013 3:51:54 AM | message detail
Why is Aya thrown here? Should have made her face DK again. As a throwback to 2002
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#159 | cteswhatever | Posted 8/2/2013 4:06:31 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Not sure why people were fearing Scorpion here. He's noticeably weaker than Sub-Zero. If it had been Subby here instead, I seriously would have thought about pulling the trigger on it.

Well, I guess I understand why since Sora's bad at night, but even Sora being really bad at night was worth 45% on Bowser and that's more credit than I'd ever give Scorps.


To be fair, Bowser isn't exactly the best at night either.
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#160 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/2/2013 4:08:02 AM | message detail
#161 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/2/2013 4:10:00 AM | message detail
I still can't believe the first character battle managed to snub Sub-Zero but include Scorpion, especially with all the random fighting games in that mess.
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#162 | cteswhatever | Posted 8/2/2013 4:11:55 AM | message detail
Yeah, of course. Was quite surprised to read the sudden fear of Scorpion winning.
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#163 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/2/2013 4:11:56 AM | message detail
There were a lot of problems with the roster for the first contest.
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#164 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/2/2013 4:12:26 AM | message detail
Pikachu looks pretty...inconsistent
#165 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/2/2013 4:38:03 AM | message detail
Gilgamesh is in the second Dissidia game which is something I forgot about when I made my bracket. I have Booker in my bracket since I thought Gilgamesh would be mostly running off FF5. Since this isn't the case, I'm siding with Gilgamesh in my Expert Challenge. Getting burned by Big Daddy might be a factor causing me to underestimate Booker, though.
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#166 | GloryChaos | Posted 8/2/2013 4:48:10 AM | message detail
Gilgamesh is probably the only character in Dissidia Duodecim who doesn't benefit from the dissidia boost at all (aside from pictures).

Well, there's Prishe and Shantotto.
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#167 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/2/2013 5:02:30 AM | message detail
What is the weakest non-joke FF character ever appeard on the contest?
We can compare it to Gilgamesh
#168 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/2/2013 5:16:57 AM | message detail | (edited)
So, uh, Sora's doing worse on Scorpion than he'd be expected to do on Sub-Zero, who's significantly above him. That's extrapolating through night match Sora, so he doesn't really have much of an excuse, it looks like he's dropped significantly. Looks like nearly a decade without anything but f***ing spinoffs isn't the best thing in the world! Hopefully KH3 will be a return to form, but this doesn't make me feel good at least about taking him to the semis.

Edit: Disregard most of this, I went completely brain-dead and forgot about Charizard. Gives you an idea of how much he's overrated by, though.
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#169 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/2/2013 5:18:16 AM | message detail
Some of the Crew had Scorpion winning so Sora winning by that much means that he has strength.
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#170 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/2/2013 5:26:07 AM | message detail | (edited)
Safer_777 posted...
Some of the Crew had Scorpion winning so Sora winning by that much means that he has strength.


...some people had Otacon winning and it turns out he can't double Jade Curtiss. Beating Scorpion 58-42 isn't very stellar at all, it implies Sora would be a lot closer for comfort than he's traditionally been to Sub-Zero.

Edit: And, geez, Sora just keeps getting CUT by Scorpion on top of that. He's still got time to look positively dismal by the end of the match.
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#171 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/2/2013 5:30:41 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
What is the weakest non-joke FF character ever appeard on the contest?
We can compare it to Gilgamesh


Celes? Kuja?
#172 | scaryice | Posted 8/2/2013 5:34:35 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
What is the weakest non-joke FF character ever appeard on the contest?
We can compare it to Gilgamesh


Looks like 1. Vaan, 2. Kuja, 3. Ultros.
#173 | StarStormScream | Posted 8/2/2013 5:46:13 AM | message detail
Wow, nice to see that Scorpion actually managed to win a few updates here and there. Now I really wish Bacon had swapped Sub & him.
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#174 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/2/2013 5:53:39 AM | message detail
I just found out that Aya is doing better against Sora than the 2010 stats project Ramza to do.

Then again, Aya being stronger than Ramza makes sense - I'd imagine the former has quite a bit more casual appeal.
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#175 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/2/2013 5:55:17 AM | message detail
By the way, if anyone's wondering about what the proportion between Sub-Zero/Scorpion is, based on their old matches against a common opponent - Auron - Sub-Zero beats Scorpion with around 56.5% of the vote pre-SFF. That's also an amazingly favorable comparison for Scorpion because he faced pre-KH2 Auron, Sub-Zero dueled him right after he got his KH2 boost.

Not saying that necessarily holds, but if it did Subz could give Sora quite the scare.
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#176 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/2/2013 5:57:15 AM | message detail
Sub-Zero beating Sora would make sense, seeing how Sub-Zero has had a field day against other anti-voted characters (sorry Master Chief and Tidus!) so far.

Now Sora vs. Tidus, THAT would be something to see.
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#177 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/2/2013 5:59:08 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Sub-Zero beating Sora would make sense, seeing how Sub-Zero has had a field day against other anti-voted characters (sorry Master Chief and Tidus!) so far.

Now Sora vs. Tidus, THAT would be something to see.


Turns out poll is a threeway, CATS gets 30% of the vote.
#178 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 8/2/2013 6:03:20 AM | message detail
Are people forgetting we have already had Sora/Sub-Zero? Granted it was a 4 way but Sora beat Sub-Zero even with Squall in the poll.
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#179 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/2/2013 6:06:58 AM | message detail
ShatteredElysium posted...
Are people forgetting we have already had Sora/Sub-Zero? Granted it was a 4 way but Sora beat Sub-Zero even with Squall in the poll.


Well, yeah, Sub-Zero can't hang at all with peak Sora.

But if Scorpion can slash him to what now looks like 43% of the vote - only about a percent less than Sub-Zero scored on Sora in that match when Squall was in the poll! - it means we're looking at a much weaker Sora.
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#180 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/2/2013 6:08:52 AM | message detail
I don't think Scorpion is too far from Sub-Zero he did 2% better on Samus in 2007 though with Midna in the poll and in 2008 using first round Freeman he gets 39% on Vincent, he did collapse in the second round though most people blame the pic.
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#181 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/2/2013 6:09:59 AM | message detail
Ultros sounds like a good comprasion to Gilgamesh
"But he showed in most FF games!"
So what
So does Cid and he was weaker than Zack for some reason
And Gilgamesh is not even a main character
#182 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/2/2013 6:10:01 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
ShatteredElysium posted...
Are people forgetting we have already had Sora/Sub-Zero? Granted it was a 4 way but Sora beat Sub-Zero even with Squall in the poll.


Well, yeah, Sub-Zero can't hang at all with peak Sora.

But if Scorpion can slash him to what now looks like 43% of the vote - only about a percent less than Sub-Zero scored on Sora in that match when Squall was in the poll! - it means we're looking at a much weaker Sora.


On the other hand...do we have much reason to believe Scorpion hasn't boosted relative to Subby since his 2k8? I know we all think the ninjas are the faces of MK, but since Scorpion's last contest appearance, he didn't just become the face of the franchise, he went into Netherrealm's logo. Hell, Scorp was the first MK character to jump ship to Netherrealm's DC game, Injustice, and in general he has been pimped out by Ed Boon to no end. With the distance between the bottom and top end of the field shrinking year by year, it seems believable to me that Scorpion could go from being comfortably behind Sub-Zero to just a few points from where the blue ninja is right now.
#183 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/2/2013 6:11:35 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Ultros sounds like a good comprasion to Gilgamesh
"But he showed in most FF games!"
So what
So does Cid and he was weaker than Zack for some reason
And Gilgamesh is not even a main character


Cid doesn't show up in most games. Each FF has a Cid, but none of them are the same guy. Gilgamesh is the one aversion to the rule that each FF takes place in its own universe (unless you count Gogo, who went from FF5 to FF6, maybe), as he's always the same dude, making the same boastful jokes, kicking the same amount of ass. They're not comparable in any way except both being FF.
#184 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/2/2013 6:14:41 AM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
I don't think Scorpion is too far from Sub-Zero he did 2% better on Samus in 2007 though with Midna in the poll and in 2008 using first round Freeman he gets 39% on Vincent, he did collapse in the second round though most people blame the pic.


Doing a mere 2% better in a poll when Samus has to contend with with a Zelda character scoring 20% on her at the same time speaks volumes. Samus does crazy bad in multiways when Nintendo characters are holding her down.

I don't like using Freeman in multiways, he's got too many instances of results going back and forth between matches in that very same contest. I'll admit that we don't have enough solid Scorpion results to be entirely confident in that, but Sub-Zero has always looked amazingly better than Scorpion from the second we got him in these things.
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#185 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/2/2013 6:16:07 AM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Nanis23 posted...
Ultros sounds like a good comprasion to Gilgamesh
"But he showed in most FF games!"
So what
So does Cid and he was weaker than Zack for some reason
And Gilgamesh is not even a main character


Cid doesn't show up in most games. Each FF has a Cid, but none of them are the same guy. Gilgamesh is the one aversion to the rule that each FF takes place in its own universe (unless you count Gogo, who went from FF5 to FF6, maybe), as he's always the same dude, making the same boastful jokes, kicking the same amount of ass. They're not comparable in any way except both being FF.


I know,but it was to counter an argument that because he appears in alot of FF games,he must be popular
#186 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/2/2013 6:17:01 AM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
ShatteredElysium posted...
Are people forgetting we have already had Sora/Sub-Zero? Granted it was a 4 way but Sora beat Sub-Zero even with Squall in the poll.


Well, yeah, Sub-Zero can't hang at all with peak Sora.

But if Scorpion can slash him to what now looks like 43% of the vote - only about a percent less than Sub-Zero scored on Sora in that match when Squall was in the poll! - it means we're looking at a much weaker Sora.


On the other hand...do we have much reason to believe Scorpion hasn't boosted relative to Subby since his 2k8? I know we all think the ninjas are the faces of MK, but since Scorpion's last contest appearance, he didn't just become the face of the franchise, he went into Netherrealm's logo. Hell, Scorp was the first MK character to jump ship to Netherrealm's DC game, Injustice, and in general he has been pimped out by Ed Boon to no end. With the distance between the bottom and top end of the field shrinking year by year, it seems believable to me that Scorpion could go from being comfortably behind Sub-Zero to just a few points from where the blue ninja is right now.


It could happen - but I'm not sure how much that means to GameFAQs, Scorpion's always been the face of MK. Hasn't stopped Subz from looking better every year. Regardless, the match is at least somewhat debatable now looking at this rather than being a completely crazy upset, and that's significant.
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#187 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/2/2013 6:19:31 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Nanis23 posted...
Ultros sounds like a good comprasion to Gilgamesh
"But he showed in most FF games!"
So what
So does Cid and he was weaker than Zack for some reason
And Gilgamesh is not even a main character


Cid doesn't show up in most games. Each FF has a Cid, but none of them are the same guy. Gilgamesh is the one aversion to the rule that each FF takes place in its own universe (unless you count Gogo, who went from FF5 to FF6, maybe), as he's always the same dude, making the same boastful jokes, kicking the same amount of ass. They're not comparable in any way except both being FF.


I know,but it was to counter an argument that because he appears in alot of FF games,he must be popular


He is popular. Gilgamesh came back in FF8 because he was so well-loved in Japan way back, and he had the same cozy reception in the rest of the world when FF5A finally shipped. The question is if that popularity will translate to gameFAQS. I wanna say yes because Gil totally deserves it, but I assumed GameFAQS wouldn't vote for a horse too. It's let me down before.
#188 | Jakyl25 | Posted 8/2/2013 6:33:56 AM | message detail
I am hedging towards Booker but not totally sold.

Elizabeth managed 10,200 votes at night.

Locke only managed 8700 votes during the day (in a match with admittedly some slight SNES RPG SFF), and Terra only managed 11,800 votes during the day.

Booker may be slightly weaker than Elizabeth, but Gilgamesh should be way weaker than Locke and Terra.


Unless I'm wrong about that last point I'm leaning Booker - Booker - Kaim in the EC to play for the +2 or 0.
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#189 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/2/2013 6:45:56 AM | message detail
but Gilgamesh should be way weaker than Locke and Terra.


Why should a character everybody who plays FF loves, who's been in multiple games, who had a Dissidia appearance, and who has a theme that's indelible from memory (and thus reminds people of him) be as bad as Locke? He's probably not as good as Terra (who really should not be mentioned in the same breath as Locke. Compare her to Kefka), but Gil doesn't need to be at that level to win.
#190 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/2/2013 6:48:28 AM | message detail | (edited)
Like seriously, let me just stop on one of those points for a second. What does Booker have that compares to this?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHbYIbleQP8

So go ahead and tell me. What is it? What's his trump card? What's his trademark bit of awesome? Because Gilgamesh has like fifty lines that are super quotable and they pale in comparison to something as memorable as Battle on the Big Bridge. And if something makes you powerful on gameFAQS, it's the timelessness that comes from being a fond memory. The strongest force in these contests is nostalgia, and Gilgamesh has that in spades.
#191 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/2/2013 6:52:05 AM | message detail
Match L: (5) Booker DeWitt vs. (14) Gilgamesh vs. (23) Kaim Argonar

Previous Contest

Booker DeWitt – N/A
N/A

Gilgamesh – N/A
N/A

Kaim Argonar – 2008
8.05% against Crono, Amaterasu and Frank West

Analysis

These types of matches are so hard to predict, I expect everyone to be weak yet someone has to win. We have the most information on Kaim and thus I am the most confident that he will finish last. He was crushed in 2008 and with nothing since that match I do not see him performing any better. Only way he avoids last is if one of these two characters really flops.

Booker is the main character from Bioshock: Infinite and while I was somewhat confident in him at the beginning of the contest after watching Elizabeth I am not so sure now. I do not see Booker being much stronger than Elizabeth as she is quite the fan favourite in the game and is talked about more than Booker. If this is a situation where Booker is not the strongest character in the game his chances of winning do not look great.

At the same time I have no faith in Gilgamesh having any strength. The board has been trying to get him in the contest for a while now and while he has made appearances in many Final Fantasy games they are mostly small. His biggest appearance was in Final Fantasy V which did not come to North America until the Gameboy Advance version was released. After that his cameos are mostly one time fights. His appearance in the second Dissidia game as a playable character would be a reason why he wins this match. I do not see the game boosting characters like the original did, but it at least makes people know him instead of him being a random boss fight.

I am going to go against my bracket and back Gilgamesh in this match. Elizabeth was not impressive enough in her match to give me faith in Booker who I do not see being much stronger than Elizabeth at best. Random cameos in Final Fantasy and being playable in Dissidia 2 may be enough to win here, but not in most places in this bracket.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Booker DeWitt > Gilgamesh and Kaim Argonar

charmander6000’s Prediction: Gilgamesh – 43.26%, Booker DeWitt – 39.23%, Kaim Argonar – 17.51%
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#192 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/2/2013 6:53:45 AM | message detail
Screw it I take Booker because of picture
match pic=cover pic=AMERICAN FLAG= Gamefaqs will vote for him
#193 | Jakyl25 | Posted 8/2/2013 6:53:59 AM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
His biggest appearance was in Final Fantasy V which did not come to North America until the Gameboy Advance version was released.


That's not correct. Final Fantasy Anthology hit for the PS1 in 1999.
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#194 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/2/2013 6:56:12 AM | message detail
Regardless, compared to the other FFs from FF4 on FF5's playrate has got to be absolutely abysmal. I don't see Gilgy worth much at all. But Booker may be worth absolutely nothing, so yeah.
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#195 | swordz9 | Posted 8/2/2013 7:00:13 AM | message detail
Gilgamesh going to get the Dissidia boost to help his first appearance <_<. Anyways I feel like Gilgamesh should win without much if any trouble just because of his opponents. Booker I don't know what to expect from since newer characters aren't exactly good in these things, but he could still have enough in him to beat Gilgamesh or just be buried.
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#196 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/2/2013 7:00:46 AM | message detail
ok I changed my expert to Gilgamesh because crew's predication
Why is this so hard
#197 | Jakyl25 | Posted 8/2/2013 7:02:04 AM | message detail
For the people that have played Bioshock Infinite, is Booker at least neutrally-liked by the fanbase?

Basically what I'm asking is is there any reason people in general would play the game, like it, but refuse to vote for Booker?
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#198 | Crimson Dragoon | Posted 8/2/2013 7:06:01 AM | message detail
Booker is a faceless voice.

Also he doesn't row.
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#199 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 8/2/2013 7:15:59 AM | message detail
Gilgamesh vs Pac-man. Who you got?
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#200 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/2/2013 7:19:03 AM | message detail
Pac's a blindingly easy pick, especially in 1v1.
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