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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1088
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Crono > Pikachu ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~ http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://www.thengamer.com/ http://thengamer.com/xstats ~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame ~*Character Contest Histories*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the Match Pics*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php ~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~ https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0 ~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense. Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated. --- Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite? However, the Guru of the next decade so far is SuperNiceDog |
even with Magus there? --- Want any VNs pre-patched? PM me. List of VNs can be found by clicking on my username. |
Shaped like a rat to beat a N9! --- GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~ |
superange128 posted... even with Magus there? Especially with Magus there --- Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite? However, the Guru of the next decade so far is SuperNiceDog |
You
could make a poll with Crono, Magus, Frog, Robo, MArle, Lucca, Ayla,
Lavos, Dalton, Schala, Serge, Queen Zeal AND Pikachu and I'd still take
Crono because Pikachu is stupid --- Feeling tired? Allow me to prescribe you a peppermint latte |
also
to answer your previous question I figured Sora would drop a tiny bit +
anti-voted and Scorp might possibly get within 5% of him but Sora
should stlil win semi-easily --- Want any VNs pre-patched? PM me. List of VNs can be found by clicking on my username. |
superange128 posted... also to answer your previous question I figured Sora would drop a tiny bit + anti-voted and Scorp might possibly get within 5% of him but Sora should stlil win semi-easily You are forgetting about Aya Brea, another Square Enix character in the poll. She may not do much but she will hurt Sora --- Feeling tired? Allow me to prescribe you a peppermint latte |
Dr_Coffee posted... You could make a poll with Crono, Magus, Frog, Robo, MArle, Lucca, Ayla, Lavos, Dalton, Schala, Serge, Queen Zeal AND Pikachu and I'd still take Crono because Pikachu is stupid inb4 Pikachu just breaks 50% to make all LFF debates moot |
Just
to chime in on the Knuckles > Magus discussion a little bit ago. I
wouldn't really say Knuckles beat Magus that year because Magus dropped
off. Crono 2005 > Crono 2003 because of the poll placement, so I see no reason to assume that Magus wasn't more popular as well. The reason Knuckles won that match (besides our incorrect assumptions about Magus of course), was because Knuckles (much like Sonic), had a nice boost that year. I mean, thanks to him possibly ovverperforming on Squall we have no way of knowing for sure, but it seems logical to me to assume that if Sonic boosted, Knuckles must have as well. Magus's big drop off (like the rest of CT) happened in 2007. The difference between him and Crono though is that in the years since then he's kept on slipping. Edit: Forget what I said, about Crono not slipping. He definitely slipped between 2008/2010 as well. I had previously thought of 2008 as an aberration for Crono, as in my memory Vincent beat Crono much worse than he did in 2007. Not entirely sure where I was getting that from. --- "What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!" This is Yesmar. |
9-way poll, who takes first? Link Ganondorf Zelda Epona Dark Link Midna Tingle Malon Cloud Strife --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
red sox 777 posted... 9-way poll, who takes first? Link. He SFFs the other folks so badly that they end up stealing more votes from Cloud. --- Harmony is peace. Peace is unity. Unity is harmony. I tell this to the King Nook. He ask me to leave. |
BlAcK TuRtLe posted... superange128 posted...even with Magus there? The only scenario where this could be true is if Magus voters so overwhelmingly despise Crono that every vote for Magus is a lost vote for Crono's competition...i.e. you're suggesting that Pikachu would have a better chance in a 1v1. It seems farfetched to me. EDIT: Nvm, I see what you mean...having Magus is more beneficial to Crono than someone like Otacon precisely because it turns the match into nearly a 1v1, since most Crono Trigger fans prefer him to Magus. That makes way more sense. --- Every day the rest of your life is changed forever. |
DoctorJimmy133 posted... In addition, when you're as riotously weak as Jade, a boost such as a 3DS port that sold 240k in NA can be significant when it would be trivial to most characters. I'm not sure it sold even a third of that of that. It only sold 45k in its first 5 months and its only been out about a year and a half now. 240k is something like 3 times what the original TotA sold (72k), 50% more than what ToV sold (more than 150k) and over half of ToS (470k). --- Pokemon VGC2013 BC Regional - 16th place Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place |
I think Scorpion might impress against Sora just because this board has a tendency to underestimate Scorpion. Don't think that will imply weakness for Sora though. Unless Scorpion gets really close to beating him. Sora should win by 5-10 points. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Time for the last match of the division that I'll be getting points on! Well okay, Kaim and Wolf will be giving me points thanks to being in guaranteed last place! And probably Steve --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
Team Rocket Elite posted... DoctorJimmy133 posted...In addition, when you're as riotously weak as Jade, a boost such as a 3DS port that sold 240k in NA can be significant when it would be trivial to most characters. Yeah, that sounds a bit too high. I do remember hearing somewhere that Namco had a couple reprints since the game was selling better than expected, so I was at least a success for them. --- Now Awaiting: Tales of Xillia, Squigly patch for Skullgirls |
Julian_Caesar posted... BlAcK TuRtLe posted...superange128 posted...even with Magus there? I see the point, but that's not how it works and we've seen it lots of times before. --- *2, *8,070,446 Kuroko no Basket *3, *6,495,240 Naruto |
ctesjbuvf posted... Julian_Caesar posted...BlAcK TuRtLe posted...superange128 posted...even with Magus there? Lots of times? I don't recall there ever being 3-way matches before. You would have to dig up a very, very specific 4-way battle (i.e. Sonic/Charizard/Tails/Knuckles or something) for it to be equivalent. I don't mean that I agree with his point 100%; it really depends on which "third-party" character is being left out by virtue of Magus making it into the match. A character with more Pikachu overlap would help Crono way more than having Magus in the match, whereas a character with more Crono overlap (Earthworm Jim lol??) would be much worse for him. This is really going to be a fascinating match. Crono is probably still a bit stronger, but there is VERY little overlap between Pikachu and Crono fanbases compared with most other fanbases. And with the third spot filled by Magus, this match really comes down to how many votes Magus will leech from Crono and whether it's enough to bridge the gap. We made excuses for Crono losing to Vincent; this time there won't be any excuses. He's the favorite and he needs to act like it. --- Every day the rest of your life is changed forever. |
ctesjbuvf posted... Julian_Caesar posted...BlAcK TuRtLe posted...superange128 posted...even with Magus there? Crono wins simply because Magus is going to get pulvurized by SFF, and Pikachu isn't strong enough to take advantage. Like I mentioned in the last topic, the difference between that match and Fox/Blue & Mega Man/Charizard is that Wolf and Zero will both hold up better to SFF than Magus will. Along with the fact that 1v1, Charizard is closer to MM than Pikachu is to Crono. --- Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite? However, the Guru of the next decade so far is SuperNiceDog |
Julian_Caesar posted... ctesjbuvf posted...Julian_Caesar posted...BlAcK TuRtLe posted...superange128 posted...even with Magus there? Sure, lemme do that. SMB1/SMB3/LoZ/SMW. LoZ goes from losing in a thrashing to SMB1 to coming one 11:45 away from winning against SMB3 and advancing to Round 5. Who's to say the same can't happen with Crono and Pikachu, except Pikachu completes the victory? |
Julian_Caesar posted... We made excuses for Crono losing to Vincent; this time there won't be any excuses. He's the favorite and he needs to act like it. What...? Crono has a much bigger excuse for this fight than he ever did for Vincent. He isn't even the favorite, he was a large Guru underdog - at the moment it you'd probably find more Crono support, but it's around 50/50 at best for him. You can't be a favorite if you're not, you know, the actual favorite. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
creativename posted... Julian_Caesar posted...We made excuses for Crono losing to Vincent; this time there won't be any excuses. He's the favorite and he needs to act like it. He can be if we see the win coming. If you ran a match consisting of Draven/Yu/Spyro tomorrow, the board probably sides with Draven almost unanimously because they know he can get mega rallied. Crono isn't quite in the same boat because he hasn't put out a 100% championship worthy performance to just throw Pikachu's chances of winning out, but he's certainly made himself look good with his post-rally 63%. |
Being able to see the character winning isn't close to being sufficient to qualify them as the favourite. --- Pokemon VGC2013 BC Regional - 16th place Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place |
Team Rocket Elite posted... Being able to see the character winning isn't close to being sufficient to qualify them as the favourite. It is if they win by enough. Crono hasn't, but he's at least confirmed he's not on the freefall. |
KanzarisKelshen posted... Team Rocket Elite posted...Being able to see the character winning isn't close to being sufficient to qualify them as the favourite. I have no idea what you are trying to say. But Crono is not the favorite, it's simply factually incorrect to call him that. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Because I doubt Magus is going to leech votes from Crono at the same rate that Super Mario games leech from each other. If Pikachu wins it's because he's simply stronger right now. --- Every day the rest of your life is changed forever. |
creativename posted... KanzarisKelshen posted...Team Rocket Elite posted...Being able to see the character winning isn't close to being sufficient to qualify them as the favourite. Stats and reality have little to do with being the "favorite." What matters more is perception. So even if it is factually incorrect to call Crono the favorite, it's certainly not incorrect to call him the favorite based on historical perceptions of the characters. And if Pikachu beats a Noble Niner, perceptions of both characters will change. --- Every day the rest of your life is changed forever. |
Julian_Caesar posted... KanzarisKelshen posted... Really? If its Pikachu 42% Crono 41% and Magus 17% you think Pika wins one on one? Don't be absurd --- Feeling tired? Allow me to prescribe you a peppermint latte |
It's
worth noting that about 25% of the Gurus had Otacon in Round 3 and
about 60% of them had Crono winning in Round 2. Crono's support would be
even lower if Magus had been a guarantee to make Round 2. While Crono
may have some new support now due to his and Pikachu's performances,
he's losing a lot of the support of people who thought he would win due
to Otacon. --- Pokemon VGC2013 BC Regional - 16th place Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place |
Team Rocket Elite posted... It's worth noting that about 25% of the Gurus had Otacon in Round 3 and about 60% of them had Crono winning in Round 2. Crono's support would be even lower if Magus had been a guarantee to make Round 2. While Crono may have some new support now due to his and Pikachu's performances, he's losing a lot of the support of people who thought he would win due to Otacon. Otacon in Round 3? onelessbracket.jpg --- Menji has reclaimed what was his by rights. I was more of a man with his than with my own combined. ##Alec |
BlAcK TuRtLe posted... ctesjbuvf posted...Julian_Caesar posted...BlAcK TuRtLe posted...superange128 posted...even with Magus there? Why would it? We knkow Zero holds up better to SFF than pretty much anyone, but we have nothing that says Wolf will. Magus got 30% on Crono. Look at how Ganondorf and Bowser did on Mario and Link. I don't get why you think everyone likes Crono more than Magus. Magus has always been a Chrono Trigger favorite. And Charizard's 55% on Kratos is probably the most legit result he had last CB. Bowser had HG/SS support and then the bandwagon happened. I'd take Pikachu to get 55% on Kratos too, putting them around the same level, and Mega Man is stronger than Crono. --- *2, *8,070,446 Kuroko no Basket *3, *6,495,240 Naruto |
AlecTrevelyan006 posted... Team Rocket Elite posted...It's worth noting that about 25% of the Gurus had Otacon in Round 3 and about 60% of them had Crono winning in Round 2. Crono's support would be even lower if Magus had been a guarantee to make Round 2. While Crono may have some new support now due to his and Pikachu's performances, he's losing a lot of the support of people who thought he would win due to Otacon. No, they had Otacon in Round 2 so they made their Round 2 prediction as if Crono would not be handicapped by LFF. Unless Magus completely drops the next two hours, they now know Crono will have to deal with Magus. --- Pokemon VGC2013 BC Regional - 16th place Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place |
Team Rocket Elite posted... AlecTrevelyan006 posted...Team Rocket Elite posted...It's worth noting that about 25% of the Gurus had Otacon in Round 3 and about 60% of them had Crono winning in Round 2. Crono's support would be even lower if Magus had been a guarantee to make Round 2. While Crono may have some new support now due to his and Pikachu's performances, he's losing a lot of the support of people who thought he would win due to Otacon. I know, I was noting your typo. And if anybody could blow it here, it'd be Magus. --- Menji has reclaimed what was his by rights. I was more of a man with his than with my own combined. ##Alec |
Match XLIX: (2) Sora vs. (17) Scorpion vs. (26) Aya Brea Previous Contest Sora – 2010 63.63% against Midna 67.75% against Laharl 45.30% against Bowser Scorpion – 2008 30.11% against Gordon Freeman, Balthier Bunansa and Big Daddy 18.94% against Vincent Valentine, Gordon Freeman and Falco Lombardi Aya Brea – 2002 64.77% against Terry Bogard 48.94% against Donkey Kong Analysis With Kingdom Hearts 3 announced we could see Sora boost back to his former self, but with only a trailer that boost likely will not happen until a future contest. Funny enough if LFF goes his way he could still win this division. It is possible that he may not be a near-elite anymore, but the guy should still have strength as it would take quite the drop to lose this match. Scorpion was one of the bigger names that missed the 2010 contest; sadly he is stuck with an unwinnable match here. While most people feel Sub-Zero is the stronger character between the two Scorpion is likely not too far from him just by looking at his performances in 4-ways. I see him coming relatively close to Sora, but it will be at Sora’s expense. The second character from 2002 makes her long awaited return. Unsurprisingly Aya Brea will not have the same strength as we saw her in 2002. All she has gotten since the first contest is a PSP game that was not well liked. Morrigan did not put up great numbers on Miles Edgeworth and she has at least stayed semi-relevant with all the Capcom crossover games she has appeared in. While Morrigan and Aya have very few things in common I believe she does highlight what happens to you when you do not have much over the past decade. I expect Sora to be a bit weaker this contest which does not help his bid to win the division. I do not think anyone feels he is capable of winning it on strength alone, but at the same time there is only so much LFF can do for you. charmander6000’s Bracket: Sora > Scorpion and Aya Brea charmander6000’s Prediction: Sora – 48.73%, Scorpion – 37.18%, Aya Brea – 14.09% --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 40/46 Today's Picks: Pikachu and Magus |
AlecTrevelyan006 posted... Team Rocket Elite posted...AlecTrevelyan006 posted...Team Rocket Elite posted...It's worth noting that about 25% of the Gurus had Otacon in Round 3 and about 60% of them had Crono winning in Round 2. Crono's support would be even lower if Magus had been a guarantee to make Round 2. While Crono may have some new support now due to his and Pikachu's performances, he's losing a lot of the support of people who thought he would win due to Otacon. Oh, I didn't notice that even after your post. >_> --- Pokemon VGC2013 BC Regional - 16th place Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place |
ctesjbuvf posted... Why would it? We knkow Zero holds up better to SFF than pretty much anyone, but we have nothing that says Wolf will. Magus got 30% on Crono. Look at how Ganondorf and Bowser did on Mario and Link. I don't get why you think everyone likes Crono more than Magus. Magus has always been a Chrono Trigger favorite. No, his most legit result is Charizard/Duke. Use that if you want to know how good 'base charizard' is. |
Otacon finally got his first cut at 10:08 PM and that happened right after Magus had a 50 vote gain. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
KanzarisKelshen posted... ctesjbuvf posted...Why would it? We knkow Zero holds up better to SFF than pretty much anyone, but we have nothing that says Wolf will. Magus got 30% on Crono. Look at how Ganondorf and Bowser did on Mario and Link. I don't get why you think everyone likes Crono more than Magus. Magus has always been a Chrono Trigger favorite. http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb8/cb8-031.jpg I'm sure that flag didn't help him at all. --- Pokemon VGC2013 BC Regional - 16th place Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place |
Oh
I KNOW ExTha isn't calling into question my data about Magus being
overrated. Everything connected to Magus except Link pointed to it. 2004 Sam Fisher 2004 Ganon and Tidus Villains Contest Luca Should have seen Magus flopping coming when DONKEY KONG equaled his performance on Sam Fisher a few days before Knux won. No solid evidence here folks only fanboy twisted logic I am more than willing to admit when a pick is made out of bias but picking Squall > Magus was totally legit. --- Leonhart posting from his phone |
Yeah
I actually came to the same conclusion Leonhart did after looking at
the numbers, without swapping notes with him. Magus jobbing to Squall
wasn't too hard to see coming-- Knuckles yeah maybe (though I think I
would've seen that coming too if I'd actually given Knuckles his due
respect) --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
KanzarisKelshen posted... No, his most legit result is Charizard/Duke. Use that if you want to know how good 'base charizard' is. Just reading over another great stats topic and noticed this post. His match against Duke is not his most legit. Duke's picture that match kicked an unfathomable amount of ass. --- Drop it to the floor... |
Wow,
I just took a second glance at the match picture, and Scorp looks
freakin' serious. I'm definitely fearing the upset; something doesn't
smell right about this one. --- Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif |
Yeah, I always had an uneasy feeling that Scorpion could come dangerously close to taking this one away from Sora.... Not that I'd mind. I'm voting for the fire-breathing bastard anyway. --- Drop it to the floor... |
kinsho3 posted... KanzarisKelshen posted...No, his most legit result is Charizard/Duke. Use that if you want to know how good 'base charizard' is. Precisely why you should use it. Even with pic factor (which Duke didn't really have because he was one half of RUSSIA vs 'MERIKA there), Charizard could not double Duke Nukem. And Duke isn't a guy who has a close match with Knuckles like 2010 projects him to. I love him, but he just isn't. Thus it tells you Charizard isn't really that strong. |
If scorpion won, my bracket and so many others would be toast. I wonder if anyone actually has him winning. |
BlAcK TuRtLe posted... ctesjbuvf posted...Julian_Caesar posted...BlAcK TuRtLe posted...superange128 posted...even with Magus there? And again, this is BS. You can say that Zero will hold up better to SFF because we've seen him hold up better to SFF, if not outright rSFF Mega Man. Wolf's only previous performance is in Rivalry Rumble, where he and Fox had two matches--against Yuna/Seymour and Ryu/Ken. Their percentage was much closer to the "expected" 1v1 for Fox v. Yuna than it was for Fox v. Ryu. Yuna-Seymour was one of the ones we called out as a likely candidate for "not a real rivalry; totally going to choke." Only way to explain Yuna barely doing any worse against Fox than expected in a 1v1 with an anchor like Seymour while Ryu gets about 10% better on Fox than he'd be expected to 1v1 is that nobody saw Wolf as a real rival for Fox. Best way to explain that would be to assume that Fox is getting more of his strength from Smash than he is from his own games, which isn't totally illogical since he's had maybe one good game in the last 15 years (two if you count Star Fox 64 3D). I want this to be wrong, because SF64 is my favorite game ever. But there is absolutely no reason to think that Wolf will do any better at avoiding SFF than "fan favorite" Magus did in 2004 and plenty of reason to think he'll do even worse. --- RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed. |
General_Zimbad posted... If scorpion won, my bracket and so many others would be toast. I wonder if anyone actually has him winning. Only four gurus have scorpion so yeah.... That would be a bigger shock than Kefka. |
Only four gurus have scorpion so yeah.... That would be a bigger shock than Kefka. Even worse many of us have Sora winning the division. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 40/46 Today's Picks: Pikachu and Magus |
If
Scorpion wins here, he has an incredible shot for the Final 9. He'll be
a shoe-in against Round 2 fodder, and then he could get a divisional
showdown against Pikachu with a very likely possibility of Fox/Blue
there to hamper the rat. ...this must happen. Do it for the boys, Scorpz. --- http://i.imgur.com/a4GuDV3.gif |
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