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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1087
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1337gamerpr0 posted... Karma Hunter posted...ExThaNemesis posted...Oh no, we need Magus in here every year because he's got a legacy to uphold and he invariably makes for interesting matches. I can chart the trajectory of SFF matches too I'm not picky --- sig |
Magus
2003 was probably overrated by a little. He did, after all, beat
Ganondorf that year heads up, so he wasn't super overrated. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
Karma Hunter posted... ExThaNemesis posted...Oh no, we need Magus in here every year because he's got a legacy to uphold and he invariably makes for interesting matches. oh right. no we need all the MGS characters back after MGS5 so we can see them dominate!! --- Die young and save yourself. Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work. |
By
the way, I'd be very wary of extrapolating through Jade. Jade has one
4-way match from 5 years ago in which he took last place by a lot. This
performance doesn't mean that Magus would get doubled by Zack. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
red sox 777 posted... Magus 2003 was probably overrated by a little. He did, after all, beat Ganondorf that year heads up, so he wasn't super overrated. ...a Ganondorf that nearly went down to Tidus in the match before. Ganondorf wasn't worth more than midcard until he became a beneficiary of the Zelda/Nintendo boosts. --- sig |
Grey Fox Psycho Mantis Sniper Wolf Vulcan Raven Decoy Octopus (never gonna get into a contest) --- Pts: 41/47 Today's Picks: Pikachu & Magus IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard |
Metal Gear Rex --- Pts: 41/47 Today's Picks: Pikachu & Magus IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard |
...a
Ganondorf that nearly went down to Tidus in the match before. Ganondorf
wasn't worth more than midcard until he became a beneficiary of the
Zelda/Nintendo boosts. Still stronger than Knuckles! Square was strong across the board in 2003, Tidus was probably no slouch. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
red sox 777 posted... By the way, I'd be very wary of extrapolating through Jade. Jade has one 4-way match from 5 years ago in which he took last place by a lot. This performance doesn't mean that Magus would get doubled by Zack. Two 4-way matches where he took last place by a lot thank you --- sig |
Why
on earth was Jade invited back for a third contest. Like, I saw his
2008 match and assumed it was his only one because with a performance
like that, how do you even get invited back once much less twice? --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
Speaking of Tidus, any chance that he (and some of the other FFX lot) could boost post FFX-HD? Auron could be pretty scary as far as non N9 goes if that does anything. --- Die young and save yourself. Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work. |
red sox 777 posted... Why on earth was Jade invited back for a third contest. Like, I saw his 2008 match and assumed it was his only one because with a performance like that, how do you even get invited back once much less twice? Fails fans are persistent as f*** --- Die young and save yourself. Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work. |
red sox 777 posted... ...a Ganondorf that nearly went down to Tidus in the match before. Ganondorf wasn't worth more than midcard until he became a beneficiary of the Zelda/Nintendo boosts. Oh no doubt, but Magus being projected to beat Sonic and have a knock-down brawl with Snake in 2003 is just completely out of whack. We know that Tidus was overrated pretty heavily because we saw him the very next year and Mega Man just flat out embarrassed him. There wasn't much reason for Tidus to fall off a cliff in 2004. --- sig |
ExThaNemesis posted... Speaking of Tidus, any chance that he (and some of the other FFX lot) could boost post FFX-HD? I'd sooner expect Squall to boost from the FF8 Steam release than Auron to gain from a lolvitarelease. |
Also
I'm not sure how I'm getting so much doubt that Magus was overrated
when he literally can't post 50% against Hal 'Otacon' Emmerich and Jade
Curtiss! A character as strong as Sonic or Solid Snake is just incapable
of falling to this kind of depth. --- sig |
KanzarisKelshen posted... ExThaNemesis posted...Speaking of Tidus, any chance that he (and some of the other FFX lot) could boost post FFX-HD? isn't it coming out on PS3 as well? --- Die young and save yourself. Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work. |
Well,
Tidus did get 42% on Sonic directly in 2002. 2003 was Sonic's worst
year prior to the 2008 debacle. He got doubled by Cloud and only put up
53% on Aeris. Could Magus/Ganondorf/Tidus have beaten Aeris in 2003?
Seems feasible. If Magus = Aeris then he's not far from Sonic, though
he doesn't win of course. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
ExThaNemesis posted... KanzarisKelshen posted...ExThaNemesis posted...Speaking of Tidus, any chance that he (and some of the other FFX lot) could boost post FFX-HD? What, FFX HD? I think it's Vita only. |
Karma Hunter posted... Also I'm not sure how I'm getting so much doubt that Magus was overrated when he literally can't post 50% against Hal 'Otacon' Emmerich and Jade Curtiss! A character as strong as Sonic or Solid Snake is just incapable of falling to this kind of depth. *Looks at Vincent 2k7* *Looks at Vincent 2k13* Not so sure about that one... |
KanzarisKelshen posted... lightsout06 posted...welp i lose another point Doubt we start seeing dead gurus until at least halfway through round 2. There are enough late game upsets that 1 and 2 point matches won't matter much. --- Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite? However, the Guru of the next decade so far is SuperNiceDog |
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 8/1/2013 6:23:56 PM | #463 red sox 777 posted......a Ganondorf that nearly went down to Tidus in the match before. Ganondorf wasn't worth more than midcard until he became a beneficiary of the Zelda/Nintendo boosts. he had to some time! his 2002 performance was actually good. --- http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lxkdr0uNc91qlu5jao1_r1_400.gif |
how exactly do you get dead gurus? |
What the gurus had for this match? --- GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~ |
Ppl who took Otocon were dumb. Made as much sense as taking Yu over Shadow just because Shadow always embarrasses himself --- Feeling tired? Allow me to prescribe you a peppermint latte |
I
think Sonic/Tidus has a glitch in 2002 where Sonic didn't get all of
his day-vote. If memory hasn't failed me, that'd mean Tidus was likely
over-rated from the beginning. --- T H E S T A B L E - bring on Epona! http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg |
Link
had two matches in 2003 that didn't involve SFF: Magus and Cloud.
Ganondorf also looked like crap against Tidus. Zelda characters in
general just sucked that year, probably due to how polarizing Wind Waker
was (and then TP got announced the next year and Zelda characters got
buff as s*** again). I think that might have had a noticeable effect on
Magus's overperformance on Link that year (plus sprite round, Square
strength, and all other sorts of s***). Anyway, two Tales characters in a row pulling overperformances. Hmmmm. --- Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy II - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3557012 Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64 |
Safer_777 posted... What the gurus had for this match? Magus 183 (75%) Otacon 61 (25%) --- POKEFEAR |
1337gamerpr0 posted... how exactly do you get dead gurus? When even if you get every match correct to the end of the contest, someone else has the same picks, or is so far ahead of you that you couldn't possibly catch them. --- Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite? However, the Guru of the next decade so far is SuperNiceDog |
Fox vs. Magus, who wins? --- Pts: 41/47 Today's Picks: Pikachu & Magus IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard |
Yeah,
a dead Guru is mathematically unable to win the contest even if every
remaining match they've predict correct. So for example, if you had two
first round upsets and I had one of them and we each had not other
upsets, if your "unique" upset was wrong, you would have no chance of
beating me regardless of what occurred in the rest of the contest and
would be dead. --- *shrug* |
Ain't no lie, Crono bye bye bye! Crono being pulled down by a weak day vote and Magus versus A pumped up Day vote Pikachu Equals Dead Crono --- Point Total: 44/46. Guru Status: Alive My Bracket Says: Night: Pikachu Day: Magus |
MoogleKupo141 posted... Xuxon posted...Luvdisc might get joke votes. a better bet would be some random 4th or 5th gen pokemon no one cares about. http://bulbapedia.bulbagarden.net/wiki/File:568Trubbish.png nintendogirl1 posted... TRE, do you know if anyone is keeping track of the expert scores of the people on the leaderboard or has the expert leaderboard for each day saved so it can be calculated? I have copies of all of the older leaderboards. I don't think it's possible to make a chart similar to the one I make for the regular leaderboard since there's more to score than just win or lose. --- Pokemon VGC2013 BC Regional - 16th place Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place |
nintendogirl1 posted... Yeah, a dead Guru is mathematically unable to win the contest even if every remaining match they've predict correct. So for example, if you had two first round upsets and I had one of them and we each had not other upsets, if your "unique" upset was wrong, you would have no chance of beating me regardless of what occurred in the rest of the contest and would be dead. so when's a dead guru in round 1 ever going to get 2nd in a contest anyway ;) |
Sure, you can only score points gained or lost, rather than full outcomes. --- *shrug* |
tennisboy213 posted... Safer_777 posted...What the gurus had for this match? It should be noted that the vast majority of the top predictors (such as the Top 50) chose Magus to win, but even the top tier was not immune to bad predictions here. Current first place Blairville, sixth place Bane_of_Despair and fourty-fourth place Advokaiser don't have Magus winning. It's very possible the sitewide leaderboard might see a similar shift in the rankings as the Guru's. |
Dilated Chemist posted... Fox vs. Magus, who wins? Fox destroys there. He's one of the guys standing on the razor's edge between Midcarder and High Midcarder IIRC. He should easily take out the trash. |
Yeah, Fox trashes Magus. Even in 2003, Magus probably can't break 55%. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
KanzarisKelshen posted... tennisboy213 posted...Safer_777 posted...What the gurus had for this match? The top tiers will probably perform similarly to the overall gurus. Probably around 70-80% for Magus and more likely to be in the 75%-80% range. --- Pokemon VGC2013 BC Regional - 16th place Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place |
Regarding
Magus in 2K3...that was probably a combination of him falling later and
being legit strong that year, as well as the "Bible Link" 8-bit LoZ pic
that Link got, along with sprite Magus - Chrono Trigger+sprites pretty
much means that CT is at it's best anyway. Then you add in fugly Link, plus Magus being of decent strength (he was at least worth 30% on Link even without overperformances, which is high midcard/near-elite depending on your definitions). This notion that Magus could not have fallen so hard is of course mistaken - guys like Sonic and Snake would have fallen very hard to if they kept getting crap, worthless games (which Sonic did for a while) or no new releases/anything relevant whatsoever. Sonic was clearly on his way to a huge decline if he had continued his negative trajectory. Being adopted by Nintendo pretty much saved his "career" if you would. Frog used to be stronger too, though he hasn't fallen as much. Even Crono was falling (and still may have fallen this year, he looked good to me but it's unclear, and if he loses to Pikachu we'll never really know). Being the star and namesake of the game, he hasn't fallen nearly as much as Frog, but if even Crono was declining then obviously Magus would be much more extreme. Magus was never worth 35% on Link without the sprite pics, but he was still strong, and has become crap since. It's pretty clear he's had a major fall - the majority of his decline is the fall in strength, not overperforming in 2K3. That's a much lesser factor compared to his terrible decline. Also I think we're not giving Jade enough credit here, he's clearly not constant. This topic has some very vocal Tails detractors but this match, the last match, and the overall strength of jRPG characters this contest makes me confident in saying Jade has boosted by a good bit. Magus' performance is still pretty damn bad, but it's probably close to par for where Magus was - this performance is weak but probably not as utterly, ungodly pathetic as the stats make it seem. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Also somebody make a new topic...I wanted to post in the next topic but there wasn't one :\ I remember when people used to rush to make the new topic, sometimes even before we'd hit 40. You guys have all become so lazy in your old age!!! (I personally was always too lazy to make topics...but that's not the point!) --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Done.
Been a while since I've done the topic. Anybody else expecting Scorpion
to do surprisingly well on Sora? I can see Sora dropping. --- Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite? However, the Guru of the next decade so far is SuperNiceDog |
I was gonna make a new topic...but this one might last for another 2 hours at this rate. --- POKEFEAR |
I
think people are a little harsh on Magus and Otacon just because Jade
Curtiss isn't putting up Chesteriffic numbers. Going by the 2010
X-Stats, as messed-up as they are, the only character who does worse on
Magus than Jade does is Sandal. In addition, when you're as riotously
weak as Jade, a boost such as a 3DS port that sold 240k in NA can be
significant when it would be trivial to most characters. This match makes me feel a little better about Pikachu > Crono, but it's certainly a hard-to-call match at this point. --- Harmony is peace. Peace is unity. Unity is harmony. I tell this to the King Nook. He ask me to leave. |
Eh,
KH3 announcement. I expect him to be around the same strength. Scorpion
isn't a slouch though, and has been on the rise a bit with the new MK,
and being DLC in Injustice. So I expect Scorpion to do well. --- http://i.imgur.com/32RNLnc.gif |
There's
still a possible chance that Sora is weaker than he was in 2010, but
the trailer for KH3 at this year's E3 is sure to generate some hype for
Kingdom Hearts for the first time in over 7 years. As for today's match, Otacon hasn't even cut Magus once. The closest update to a cut was a 1 vote gain by Magus on the 4:17 PM update. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
BlAcK TuRtLe posted... Done. Been a while since I've done the topic. Anybody else expecting Scorpion to do surprisingly well on Sora? I can see Sora dropping. Not seeing it. Sora had Dream Drop Distance and now KH3. He should be good to impress. |
Pikachu > Crono --- POKEFEAR |
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