Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1087

#1 | tennisboy213 | Posted 8/1/2013 7:41:25 AM | message detail
save_us_Otacon
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~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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POKEFEAR
#2 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/1/2013 7:41:51 AM | message detail
The black wind howls...
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Agent Triple Zero at your service!
The artist formerly known as greatone10.
#3 | eaglesarebeasts | Posted 8/1/2013 7:42:23 AM | message detail
Magus gets over 50%
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http://i.imgur.com/CQVaT6Xl.jpg
#4 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/1/2013 7:43:06 AM | message detail
Otacon needs to win so he can meet his two favorite anime characters, Pikachu and Goku.
#5 | pjbasis | Posted 8/1/2013 7:55:17 AM | message detail
If I didn't care one way or another about two contestants, I would rally just to make it closer.
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http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#6 | tennisboy213 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/1/2013 7:55:22 AM | message detail
Down to 75
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POKEFEAR
#7 | ZeldaTPLink | Posted 8/1/2013 7:55:37 AM | message detail
Big Daddy is cutting like a beast.

I seriously don't know what to expect of this match anymore.
#8 | TVontheRadio | Posted 8/1/2013 7:55:39 AM | message detail
another BIG update for BIG DADDY

drill that smug pretty boy's face in
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http://kambyero.com
#9 | Kibago | Posted 8/1/2013 7:55:52 AM | message detail
75...
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Leafs / Raptors / Blue Jays / TFC / Argos / Tottenham
We'll get 'em next year.
#10 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/1/2013 7:55:56 AM | message detail
Votes per update needed is now back under 6. This is gonna be one heck of a final hour.
#11 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/1/2013 7:56:20 AM | message detail
Wow, where did that come from?
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Agent Triple Zero at your service!
The artist formerly known as greatone10.
#12 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 8/1/2013 7:57:29 AM | message detail
This is awesome warm up for the beginning of the next match. Unless the next match will be super close in which case it's warm up for an awesome match that can decide the division.
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*2, *8,070,446 Kuroko no Basket
*3, *6,495,240 Naruto
#13 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/1/2013 7:57:40 AM | message detail
C'mon Mr. Bubbles
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F*** BT
#14 | eaglesarebeasts | Posted 8/1/2013 7:57:54 AM | message detail
Prediction: Huge Lloyd update next
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http://i.imgur.com/CQVaT6Xl.jpg
#15 | Qwaar | Posted 8/1/2013 7:59:05 AM | message detail
eaglesarebeasts posted...
Prediction: Huge Lloyd update next


Please be wrong.
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XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak
#16 | Achromatic | Posted 8/1/2013 8:00:17 AM | message detail
Denied.
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"When your enemies defy you, you must serve them steel and fire. When they go to their knees, however, you must help them back to their feet."
#17 | swordz9 | Posted 8/1/2013 8:00:48 AM | message detail
C'mon Lloyd don't drop to 3rd in the last hour.
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http://myanimelist.net/animelist/swordz9
#18 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/1/2013 8:01:10 AM | message detail
With one hour to go, the lead is basically at the lowest it's been at since 12:10 am.
#19 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/1/2013 8:01:45 AM | message detail
Need the expert points, don't want to finish this division on even (or negative)
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 40/46 Today's Picks: Pikachu and Magus
#20 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/1/2013 8:01:52 AM | message detail
My goodness, the thought of the board having to rally to salvage Big Daddy in a frantic push against Lloyd Irving tickles me to death.
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#21 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/1/2013 8:02:41 AM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Need the expert points, don't want to finish this division on even (or negative)


I think most of us have Big Daddy, so losing here isn't going to be that big of a deal.
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Agent Triple Zero at your service!
The artist formerly known as greatone10.
#22 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/1/2013 8:03:50 AM | message detail
_SecretSquirrel posted...
charmander6000 posted...
Need the expert points, don't want to finish this division on even (or negative)


I think most of us have Big Daddy, so losing here isn't going to be that big of a deal.


I had Kerrigan > Missile and I think I'm still in the top 15 Expert bracket
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F*** BT
#23 | Hrezs | Posted 8/1/2013 8:04:20 AM | message detail
Go big daddy go
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PhoneYoshi
#24 | Qwaar | Posted 8/1/2013 8:04:45 AM | message detail
TheKoolAidShoto posted...
_SecretSquirrel posted...
charmander6000 posted...
Need the expert points, don't want to finish this division on even (or negative)


I think most of us have Big Daddy, so losing here isn't going to be that big of a deal.


I had Kerrigan > Missile and I think I'm still in the top 15 Expert bracket


Yeah I lost points in the last match and actually went up the leaderboard from 29th to 28th.
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XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak
#25 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/1/2013 8:05:23 AM | message detail
Almost there
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 40/46 Today's Picks: Pikachu and Magus
#26 | tennisboy213 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/1/2013 8:05:35 AM | message detail
MONSTER CUT
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POKEFEAR
#27 | pjbasis | Posted 8/1/2013 8:05:36 AM | message detail
Man I would hate to call an upset like this though and lose at the very end.

Not my problem today though!
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http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#28 | Denzokuken | Posted 8/1/2013 8:05:36 AM | message detail
oh my
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Fine! I'll go to the store and get your Goddamn drain cleaner!
Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over....
#29 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/1/2013 8:06:39 AM | message detail
Wow
#30 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/1/2013 8:07:07 AM | message detail
It literally took Big Daddy until the 11th hour, but it finally looks like he can pull it off.
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Agent Triple Zero at your service!
The artist formerly known as greatone10.
#31 | Qwaar | Posted 8/1/2013 8:07:23 AM | message detail
Please don't lose it now Big Daddio!
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XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak
#32 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/1/2013 8:09:03 AM | message detail
pjbasis posted...
Man I would hate to call an upset like this though and lose at the very end.

Not my problem today though!


Yeah, it's been my policy after a number of bad burns in the past to only pick upsets when I'm fairly sure the win will be comfortable or if FF7 is on the losing end (because hatred of FF7 trumps even bracketz). Another reason why I went Pikachu > Crono - the hivemind is often self-fulfilling!
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#33 | lightsout06 | Posted 8/1/2013 8:10:39 AM | message detail
only down 41 votes
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https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BMcwhStCYAAr-mC.jpg
Dallas Cowboys and Mavs
#34 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 8/1/2013 8:10:48 AM | message detail
Smaller cut, but a cut is a cut and 6 votes cuts from now are enough.
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*2, *8,070,446 Kuroko no Basket
*3, *6,495,240 Naruto
#35 | spooky96 | Posted 8/1/2013 8:12:11 AM | message detail | (edited)
Go go go big Daddy
lol Yeah good warm up for the next match which potentially can be close.


It'll be good to see what B8 does for the next match. Wonder if we would support Pokemon and stuff votes for Magus or completely abandon Magus and vote for Otacon.
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Pokemon Showdown Peak Ranking OU: 2004
And then lost 7 matches in a row >_>
#36 | eaglesarebeasts | Posted 8/1/2013 8:11:56 AM | message detail
Glad I was wrong. Lets go Big Daddy! I want to see the lead change on the very last update.
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http://i.imgur.com/CQVaT6Xl.jpg
#37 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/1/2013 8:12:31 AM | message detail
Board 8 will vote very strongly for Magus, there's no doubt about that.
#38 | tennisboy213 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/1/2013 8:13:31 AM | message detail
Magus will have the Chrono Trigger + Pokemon board vote
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POKEFEAR
#39 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/1/2013 8:14:00 AM | message detail
spooky96 posted...
Go go go big Daddy
lol Yeah good warm up for the next match which potentially can be close.


It'll be good to see what B8 does for the next match. Wonder if we would support Pokemon and stuff votes for Magus or completely abandon Magus and vote for Otacon.


Magus, Magus, Magus. Not only do we have Magus winning, Magus being in R2 is the sole reason why Pikachu > Crono is the board favorite. If Otacon can keep it anything resembling close at the freeze, he's going to curbstomp Magus.
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#40 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/1/2013 8:15:29 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
spooky96 posted...
Go go go big Daddy
lol Yeah good warm up for the next match which potentially can be close.


It'll be good to see what B8 does for the next match. Wonder if we would support Pokemon and stuff votes for Magus or completely abandon Magus and vote for Otacon.


Magus, Magus, Magus. Not only do we have Magus winning, Magus being in R2 is the sole reason why Pikachu > Crono is the board favorite. If Otacon can keep it anything resembling close at the freeze, he's going to curbstomp Magus.


To be fair, if you're in a match with Chrono Trigger and you aren't from Ace Attorney, if you're close at the freeze you're in great shape.
#41 | Kibago | Posted 8/1/2013 8:15:36 AM | message detail
stall??
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Leafs / Raptors / Blue Jays / TFC / Argos / Tottenham
We'll get 'em next year.
#42 | Qwaar | Posted 8/1/2013 8:16:27 AM | message detail
Damn, that's probably it now.
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XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak
#43 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/1/2013 8:16:37 AM | message detail
BIG DADDY PLS :(
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F*** BT
#44 | eaglesarebeasts | Posted 8/1/2013 8:18:11 AM | message detail
Qwaar posted...
Damn, that's probably it now.


Oh ye of little faith. Plenty of time left
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http://i.imgur.com/CQVaT6Xl.jpg
#45 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/1/2013 8:19:01 AM | message detail
Qwaar posted...
Damn, that's probably it now.


hahahahaha

I'd be stunned if Lloyd held on. Only thing that makes me give him a chance is the fact that this isn't of consequence to brackets, just the Expert.
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#46 | HaRRicH | Posted 8/1/2013 8:19:33 AM | message detail
Wow, Big Daddy for last night...and wow again for this morning!
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T H E S T A B L E - bring on Epona!
http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg
#47 | tennisboy213 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/1/2013 8:20:25 AM | message detail
LOL
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POKEFEAR
#48 | TVontheRadio | Posted 8/1/2013 8:21:03 AM | message detail
#49 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 8/1/2013 8:21:13 AM | message detail
Dammit
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*2, *8,070,446 Kuroko no Basket
*3, *6,495,240 Naruto
#50 | Kibago | Posted 8/1/2013 8:22:17 AM | message detail
Big Daddy needs rallying. not enough non-Pikachu votes per update otherwise.
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Leafs / Raptors / Blue Jays / TFC / Argos / Tottenham
We'll get 'em next year.