Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1086

#401 | Whupassman | Posted 8/1/2013 4:05:59 AM | message detail
Lolling Smurf? What is this, 2006?
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#402 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/1/2013 4:07:54 AM | message detail
Kotetsu534 posted...
France is doing work for Lloyd here, heh.


France loves their coffee hot.
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#403 | pjbasis | Posted 8/1/2013 4:25:47 AM | message detail
#404 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/1/2013 4:25:52 AM | message detail
Pikachu Crono is not debateable because
1.If Magus is in there he will drag Crono down alot
2.If Magys is not there it means he lost to a super weak character and that means Crono is weaker as well
Either way Pikachu wins
#405 | Achromatic | Posted 8/1/2013 4:28:18 AM | message detail
I don't think you get that Magus' strength is not tied directly to Crono's. Crono was doing his usual noble nine thing while Magus lost to a bag of sand.
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#406 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/1/2013 4:28:36 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Pikachu Crono is not debateable because
1.If Magus is in there he will drag Crono down alot
2.If Magys is not there it means he lost to a super weak character and that means Crono is weaker as well
Either way Pikachu wins


Magus has already lost to a super weak character. He lost to a literal bag of sand. If Otacon can actually beat him Pikachu is sunk.
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#407 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/1/2013 4:30:16 AM | message detail
Yeah if Magus loses to Otacon it just means Magus is even more worthless than he already was.
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#408 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/1/2013 4:38:47 AM | message detail
I'm getting the scary feeling that Crono might win even with Magus. That maybe he hasn't fallen nearly as far as we've thought, simply because he lost in Round 1 to an opponent that may be a lot stronger than we've given credit for.

It's pretty hard to justify Pikachu impressing when a Tales character is having a solid performance. Maybe Kratos A will end up impressing and there will be justification, but considering my bracket hinges on Pikachu going farther than he should, I'm more than wary now.
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#409 | Achromatic | Posted 8/1/2013 4:39:38 AM | message detail
Keep in mind going by the xstats Crono had his best xstat value ever in 2010 <_<.
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#410 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/1/2013 4:46:48 AM | message detail
Trying to peg Crono down in 2010 is infuriating because there's no way at all to do it. Using Missingno directly he's worth a solid 47% on Sephiroth - going off a match he had in the day, no less! - but he's also worth a pathetic 51% on Yoshi.
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#411 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/1/2013 4:49:53 AM | message detail | (edited)
And in addition, Pokemon is overrated and we take their crazy rally performances for granted when in actuality, Charizard got only 55% on Kratos before his HGSS madness, Pikachu didn't really have any reliable results in 2010 due to sprite round overperformance, and Missingno may just be its own beast entirely as a joke/Pokemon hybrid.

I'm starting to think Crono will do a lot better than most people are expecting, even with everyone here firmly on the Crono > Pikachu strength-wise train, and I wish I thought of that when I was still making my god damn bracket.

e: And of course more reasons we assume Crono's falling is because of the CT shut-out in R1 of 2010, because CT wasn't as impressive in its last contest as it was in Square-dominating 2004, and because Magus is hilariously pathetic and deserving of our mockery. All of which still don't really tell us much about Crono himself (or Frog for that matter).
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#412 | Achromatic | Posted 8/1/2013 4:49:43 AM | message detail
I have crono out of his division and charizard losing in round 2 to lightning.

let's do it.
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#413 | pjbasis | Posted 8/1/2013 4:52:31 AM | message detail
Hey man if you think Yoshi can go toe to toe with Crono and bring Sephiroth to 55% or so sure he didn't weaken
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#414 | Achromatic | Posted 8/1/2013 4:53:38 AM | message detail
Something to keep in mind is Yoshi rolled to Missingno with average day votals for the round. Crono barely lost to Missingno with an extra 10,000 votes.

%s don't always tell the whole story.
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#415 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/1/2013 4:56:34 AM | message detail
Except when a losing character is gaining percentage on a winning character, of course.
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#416 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/1/2013 4:58:02 AM | message detail | (edited)
Oh Crono obviously smashes Yoshi. Yoshi's probably at the bottom of the Luigi/Bowser/Yoshi trio these days and Squall embarrassed him repeatedly in his last non-Missingno matches.

I'd be scared to death of Crono going up against Squall, but he shouldn't have any trouble with a guy Squall blows away with 58% of the vote.
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#417 | Achromatic | Posted 8/1/2013 4:58:33 AM | message detail | (edited)
I'd be scared for Squall in that situation.

That isn't ending in less than a 60-40 and god help you if you think otherwise.

note: sff obv.
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#418 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/1/2013 5:00:27 AM | message detail | (edited)
Achromatic posted...
I'd be scared for Squall in that situation.

That isn't ending in less than a 60-40 and god help you if you think otherwise.


...if Crono can 60/40 Squall Pikachu literally can't win, ever. SNAKE can't 60/40 Squall.

Edit: ...on the note of SFF, CT being able to put a hurt on FF8/KH is highly dubious at best. And if he can, Cloud is ridiculously screwed against Snake.
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#419 | pjbasis | Posted 8/1/2013 5:00:09 AM | message detail
Doesn't mean they were all Pokemon votes. CT is known for dubious performances too.
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#420 | Achromatic | Posted 8/1/2013 5:02:04 AM | message detail
Why yes, Cloud IS screwed against Snake. Thanks for noticing...!

Also while it is true I don't believe all 10,000 weren't Pokemon, I'd wager a good 7-8k were. Pokemon did some...magical things that contest. Yeah, magical.
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#421 | Achromatic | Posted 8/1/2013 5:03:54 AM | message detail
Also man now I really hope Crono wins because he has really avoided most of the newer Square stuff aside from Vincent (who, being from FF7, was a beast to try to SFF previous to this year)
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#422 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/1/2013 5:06:30 AM | message detail
Crono beating down Squall 60/40 would also have me pretty perplexed. Squall held up like a champ and went 50/50 with Auron and Vincent, the latter of which has outright defeated Crono in one of their engagements. Crono beating down Vincent with 60% of the vote in any format looks out of the realm of possibility, so why is he Squall's kryptonite?
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#423 | Achromatic | Posted 8/1/2013 5:11:22 AM | message detail | (edited)
I don't know, this year's Vincent might not look so hot...!

And yeah 60-40 was a big round number that doesn't really hold up too well. 55/45 though, the same fate that awaited Vincent against Crono years ago 1-1.

edit: on that note, morning vote is hitting and Big Daddy begins to fade. RIP big guy.
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#424 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/1/2013 5:12:46 AM | message detail
I can buy 55/45 - it's at the *very* upper end of my estimates of Crono's strength (Squall didn't have KH2 when he lost to Vincent back then, he'd be an easy pick if Vincent didn't have his own game... heck, I still kind of like that pick), but not out of the realm of possibility. At that point though he's less around 'losing to Pikachu with Magus in the match' tier and more up to 'beating SSB-boosted Mega Man tier'.
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#425 | spooky96 | Posted 8/1/2013 5:13:09 AM | message detail
I actually just came back home and read every post.

I literally wouldn't be surprised no matter whatever the f*** happens. Crono can still win even if Magus is there. Crono can still lose even if Magus is absent against Pikachu. Though I just don't think Pikachu>Crono can happen in a simple 1v1.
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#426 | Achromatic | Posted 8/1/2013 5:14:24 AM | message detail
I did kind of forget that Squall doesn't take too much SFF flak around these parts, had to look at some polls to remember that.

We'll see what Squall is up to soon enough. Let's hope for his sake he hasn't gone the way of FF7.
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#427 | Dr_Coffee | Posted 8/1/2013 5:17:12 AM | message detail
How come Squall can destroy Tidus via SFF but not do anything to Auron?
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#428 | Achromatic | Posted 8/1/2013 5:21:13 AM | message detail
People actually like Auron.
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#429 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 8/1/2013 5:35:39 AM | message detail
The Missingno chaos is why it sucks so much that Yoshi was put in the most predictable path all contest, but this format does that to a lot of characters.

Crono winning is more likely even with Magus there. I consider Pikachu over Crono a huge upset that apparently a majority of the gurus think will happen.
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#430 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/1/2013 5:50:55 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Pikachu Crono is not debateable because
1.If Magus is in there he will drag Crono down alot
2.If Magys is not there it means he lost to a super weak character and that means Crono is weaker as well
Either way Pikachu wins


This is awful logic. In order for someone to take advantage of LFF, they still have to be close enough to the stronger character. Also required is for the weaker character to not get SFF'd into oblivion. Crono/Magus is not the same as Fox/Wolf or Mega Man/Zero in that Magus will be lucky to break 10% in that match, while Zero and Wolf will have a much higher share of the votals.

Also, Blue is closer to Fox and Charizard closer to Mega Man than Pikachu is to Crono.

Hey, I just realized, Bacon rigged the bracket to give Pokemon characters all sorts of great LFF setups. Screw you Bacon
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#431 | ZeldaTPLink | Posted 8/1/2013 5:51:08 AM | message detail
Lloyd is struggling to keep the 200 vote lead.

This match...
#432 | pjbasis | Posted 8/1/2013 5:54:16 AM | message detail
I don't see how Wolf can resist SFF more than Magus
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#433 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/1/2013 5:59:33 AM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Also, Blue is closer to Fox and Charizard closer to Mega Man than Pikachu is to Crono.


http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3809
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#434 | eaglesarebeasts | Posted 8/1/2013 6:00:33 AM | message detail
#435 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/1/2013 6:02:08 AM | message detail
Big Daddy needs to cut 5.25 votes an update to tie.
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#436 | jacko_vdz | Posted 8/1/2013 6:02:20 AM | message detail
I feel like Big Daddy might bring it under 100, but the cuts are too small for him to win.
#437 | Denzokuken | Posted 8/1/2013 6:04:50 AM | message detail
Big Daddy, please channel the spirit of Alucard and make a shocking run with the morning vote.
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#438 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/1/2013 6:07:48 AM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Nanis23 posted...
Pikachu Crono is not debateable because
1.If Magus is in there he will drag Crono down alot
2.If Magys is not there it means he lost to a super weak character and that means Crono is weaker as well
Either way Pikachu wins


This is awful logic. In order for someone to take advantage of LFF, they still have to be close enough to the stronger character. Also required is for the weaker character to not get SFF'd into oblivion. Crono/Magus is not the same as Fox/Wolf or Mega Man/Zero in that Magus will be lucky to break 10% in that match, while Zero and Wolf will have a much higher share of the votals.

Also, Blue is closer to Fox and Charizard closer to Mega Man than Pikachu is to Crono.

Hey, I just realized, Bacon rigged the bracket to give Pokemon characters all sorts of great LFF setups. Screw you Bacon


Pikachu is already close to Crono power anyway
Even if Crono is indeed stronger 1vs1,those 10% of the votes Magus leech from him are enough
He doesn't need a crazy LFF,just a small one
#439 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/1/2013 6:08:38 AM | message detail
The problem Big Daddy is going to have as opposed to Alucard is that this is a battle for second, not for first. Pikachu is going to be a much bigger vote sponge than Rydia was.
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#440 | spooky96 | Posted 8/1/2013 6:08:56 AM | message detail
Alucard.

The vampire which shines during the dawn.
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#441 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/1/2013 6:12:59 AM | message detail
Tales characters are so sad really
If Lloyd lose this...
Well at least they got Xenoblade charcters to keep them company
#442 | Denzokuken | Posted 8/1/2013 6:13:26 AM | message detail
I think Xenoblade characters were invented solely to make Tales characters look respectable.
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#443 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/1/2013 6:13:28 AM | message detail
Is it? Using a constant Lloyd Snake gets about 65% on Pikachu, make Crono equal to Squall and it's a 57/43 match.

I guess it depends where you rank Crono, but unless you have low standards Pikachu is going to need a lot of LFF.
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#444 | tennisboy213 | Posted 8/1/2013 6:13:48 AM | message detail
The people who went to bed around 3-4am ET with Lloyd still gaining are gonna be pretty surprised when they wake up.
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#445 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 8/1/2013 6:16:04 AM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Is it? Using a constant Lloyd Snake gets about 65% on Pikachu, make Crono equal to Squall and it's a 57/43 match.

I guess it depends where you rank Crono, but unless you have low standards Pikachu is going to need a lot of LFF.


Yeah, apparently I picked Pikachu but I would swap it to Crono in an instant right now. I don't feel remotely good about it.
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#446 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/1/2013 6:17:35 AM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Is it? Using a constant Lloyd Snake gets about 65% on Pikachu, make Crono equal to Squall and it's a 57/43 match.


Lloyd Snake would be the worst Big Boss clone you could imagine.
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#447 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/1/2013 6:18:41 AM | message detail
_SecretSquirrel posted...
charmander6000 posted...
Is it? Using a constant Lloyd Snake gets about 65% on Pikachu, make Crono equal to Squall and it's a 57/43 match.


Lloyd Snake would be the worst Big Boss clone you could imagine.


Two swords, more than enough to cut anything that moves.
#448 | GloryChaos | Posted 8/1/2013 6:19:21 AM | message detail
Yo. Big Daddy. Back off.
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#449 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/1/2013 6:20:50 AM | message detail
Big Daddy hasn't lost an update to Lloyd since 8:40 am.

Also, if Big Daddy can never take this lead, with a max lead of 378, this would become our closest ever wire-to-wire match in which the losing character never led.
#450 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/1/2013 6:21:00 AM | message detail
I can't believe the biggest comeback of the contest so far might be a guy who got 40% on Tifa slowly inching his way closer to Lloyd.