Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1086

#351 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/31/2013 11:55:39 PM | message detail
Updated Top 10

Top 10 Largest Day Vote Gaps
1. Solid Snake – 23261 vs. Commander Keen – 2769 – Round 1 – 20492
2. Solid Snake – 23261 vs. Isaac – 6637 – Round 1 – 16624
3. Sonic the Hedgehog – 20669 vs. Dan Hibiki – 4217 – Round 1 – 16452
4. Luigi – 19844 vs. Jade – 3753 – Round 1 – 16091
5. Raiden – 18775 vs. Alan Wake – 4152 – Round 1 – 14623
6. Crono – 20077 vs. Sarah Kerrigan – 5654 – Round 1 – 14423
7. Sonic the Hedgehog – 20669 vs. Fei Fong Wong – 6288 – Round 1 – 14381
8. Bowser – 18778 vs. Archer – 4767 – Round 1 – 14011
9. Zidane Tribal – 15531 vs. Spring Breeze Dancin’ – 1587 – Round 1 – 13944
10. Crono – 20077 vs. Missile – 6138 – Round 1 – 13939

Top 10 Closest Matches
1. Alucard – 36.32% vs. Captain Falcon – 35.95% - Round 1 – 0.37%
2. Ike – 35.81% vs. Proto Man – 35.26% - Round 1 – 0.55%
3. Tharja – 36.21% vs. Tiny Tina – 35.35% - Round 1 – 0.86%
4. Viewtiful Joe – 25.65% vs. Handsome Jack – 24.20% - Round 1 – 1.45%
5. Missile – 19.26 vs. Sarah Kerrigan – 17.74% - Round 1 – 1.52%
6. Captain Viridian – 13.51% vs. Peacock – 11.60% - Round 1 – 1.91%
7. Hero – 25.76% vs. Rinoa Heartilly – 23.26% - Round 1 – 2.50%
8. Zack Fair – 32.59% vs. Ryu Hayabusa – 29.59% - Round 1 – 3.00%
9. Isaac – 15.36% vs. Tingle – 11.97% - Round 1 – 3.39%
10. Miles Edgeworth – 28.18% vs. Agent 47 – 23.63% - Round 1 – 4.55%

Top 10 Smallest Day Vote Gaps
1. Ike – 11023 vs. Proto Man – 10854 – Round 1 – 169
2. Viewtiful Joe – 7315 vs. Handsome Jack – 6901 – Round 1 – 415
3. Missile – 6138 vs. Sarah Kerrigan – 5654 – Round 1 – 484
4. Hero – 8311 vs. Rinoa Heartilly – 7503 – Round 1 – 808
5. Zack Fair – 9862 vs. Ryu Hayabusa – 8955 – Round 1 – 907
6. Miles Edgeworth – 8763 vs. Agent 47 – 7350 – Round 1 – 1413
7. Kefka – 11443 vs. Zack Fair – 9862 – Round 1 – 1581
8. Chrom – 9589 vs. Heavy – 7924 – Round 1 – 1665
9. Proto Man – 10854 vs. Dr. Robotnik – 8909 – Round 1 – 1945
10. Fei Fong Wong – 6288 vs. Dan Hibiki – 4217 – Round 1 – 2071

Top 10 Most Popular Day Polls
1. Raiden vs. Waluigi vs. Alan Wake – Round 1 – 37721
2. Barret Wallace vs. Professor Layton vs. Reimu Hakurei – Round 1 – 33945
3. Commander Shepard vs. Captain Olimar vs. Kain – Round 1 – 33313
4. Ryu vs. Yuri Lowell vs. Face McShooty – Round 1 – 32704
5. Solid Snake vs. Isaac vs. Commander Keen – Round 1 – 32667
6. Kirby vs. Terra Branford vs. Princess Peach – Round 1 – 32535
7. Aerith Gainsborough vs. Hero vs. Rinoa Heartilly – Round 1 – 32259
8. The Boss vs. Chrom vs. Heavy – Round 1 – 32203
9. Crono vs. Missile vs. Sarah Kerrigan – Round 1 – 31869
10. Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Fei Fong Wong vs. Dan Hibiki – Round 1 – 31174

Top 10 Highest Day Individual Votes
1. Solid Snake – Round 1 – 23261
2. Sonic the Hedgehog – Round 1 – 20669
3. Crono – Round 1 – 20077
4. Luigi – Round 1 – 19844
5. Bowser – Round 1 – 18778
6. Raiden – Round 1 – 18775
7. Ryu – Round 1 – 18376
8. Commander Shepard – Round 1 – 17993
9. Dante – Round 1 – 17305
10. Barret Wallace – Round 1 – 16979
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 38/44 Today's Picks: Gordon Freeman and Crono
#352 | red sox 777 | Posted 7/31/2013 11:55:43 PM | message detail
Indeed. To all you people who want to take Link out of the contests or hobble him with restrictions like having to carry a Nintendo character around to leech him in the final: what you are really doing is guaranteeing Link's permanent victory. For he can never be truly defeated under such conditions.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
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#353 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/31/2013 11:55:47 PM | message detail
Top 10 Most Predictable Matches
1. Link vs. Isaac vs. Tingle – Round 1 – 97.59%
2. Cloud Strife vs. Prinny vs. Senator Armstrong – Round 1 – 94.22%
3. Solid Snake vs. Isaac vs. Commander Keen – Round 1 – 94.07%
4. Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Fei Fong Wong vs. Dan Hibiki – Round 1 – 93.84%
5. Big Boss vs. Captain Viridian vs. Peacock – Round 1 – 92.57%
6. Sephiroth vs. Midna vs. Little Mac – Round 1 – 91.37%
7. Dante vs. Laharl vs. Raz – Round 1 – 89.88%
8. Luigi vs. Balthier Bunansa vs. Jade – Round 1 – 89.13%
9. Mewtwo vs. Zero vs. Chester – Round 1 – 89.06%
10. Crono vs. Missile vs. Sarah Kerrigan – Round 1 – 87.11%
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 38/44 Today's Picks: Gordon Freeman and Crono
#354 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/1/2013 12:03:29 AM | message detail
Oh, Link'll get his due. Snake keeps improving on him, the Hylian can't last forever.

...honestly, Kojima completing the cycle and making AAA Metal Gear/Metal Gear 2: Solid Snake games starring Young Solid Snake will probably be enough. I can't even imagine what the buzz for those would be like.
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#355 | xp1337 | Posted 8/1/2013 12:03:53 AM | message detail
Yeah, I've always been of the opinion that wanting Link out of contests and wanting him to lose are two goals that conflict with each other.

Link winning in spite of the circumstances he's being inflicted with would be the strongest argument one could make for removing him! If Bacon were to see that he can't get Link to lose even in a 3-way match with Mario in the poll, it might be the thing that gets him to stop trying and just take him out.
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GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#356 | Jakyl25 | Posted 8/1/2013 12:05:42 AM | message detail
I still don't see why he would take the most popular character out of a popularity contest though.

I mean, his endgame here is page traffic.
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#357 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/1/2013 12:07:10 AM | message detail
One of the most popular contests of all time didn't have Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, or Mario in it!

And I'm sure Link wouldn't be permanently retired. He'd just be relegated to post-contest matches.
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#358 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/1/2013 12:07:59 AM | message detail
Jakyl25 posted...
I still don't see why he would take the most popular character out of a popularity contest though.

I mean, his endgame here is page traffic.


The most popular poll of the last multiway contest we had was Classic Link v CD-I Link v Toon Link v Young Link.

So if he *really* wanted to drive traffic...popularity's all well and good but there's a place you just draw the line.
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#359 | xp1337 | Posted 8/1/2013 12:09:33 AM | message detail
Well, I don't either. For as much as people complain about Link always winning and how it kills their interest in the contest, isn't Link still one of the better vote draws we have?

I don't have any problems with Link, but I don't exactly feel like arguing in his favor. That argument never ends well. Plus I don't feel all that strongly about it. I don't really care if Link gets retired and is banished to only show up in post-contest bonus matches. I'd actually prefer it if the alternative is what we're getting here - blatant attempts to encumber Link and get him to lose. It just cheapens it IMO.
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#360 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/1/2013 12:10:05 AM | message detail
There's also the other option, the Link-only contest. You could even still have 128 characters, just have Link face each of the other 127, in order. If Link ever loses let the winner continue the gauntlet in his place.

Now, by the end of this, the voters might be sick of Link, but at least you can't call it illegitimate for reason of multi-way polling!
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#361 | Jakyl25 | Posted 8/1/2013 12:10:11 AM | message detail
Yes and that place should be allowing all Links as separate entries. <_<
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#362 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/1/2013 12:11:49 AM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
There's also the other option, the Link-only contest. You could even still have 128 characters, just have Link face each of the other 127, in order. If Link ever loses let the winner continue the gauntlet in his place.

Now, by the end of this, the voters might be sick of Link, but at least you can't call it illegitimate for reason of multi-way polling!


was there some kind of trauma that made you become the monster you are today or were you just born that way
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#363 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 8/1/2013 12:13:56 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Yeah, Snake could be Cloud straight up regardless of who's there. That's definitely a possibility.

And yeah, a 1-on-1 win is ultimately the most satisfying thing because there are no excuses for the other character to blame a loss on.

You could blame it on the other character being an adorable little Pomeranian! Being cute isn't valid contest strength!

Jakyl25 posted...
I still don't see why he would take the most popular character out of a popularity contest though.

I mean, his endgame here is page traffic.

You could make the argument that Link's dominance is hurting interest in the rest of the contest. And that his absence would increase page traffic for the rest of the contest, since casuals would be interested in nearly every match, not knowing who was going to win. Can't really be proven unless he brings back the Tournament of Champions since the last time Link was taken out of the main draw, he was only a two-time champion, so the hatred wasn't nearly as high as it is today.
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#364 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/1/2013 12:14:24 AM | message detail
Oh man. I'm getting shivers of happiness thinking about Young Link beating Starstruck Invincible Mario 60/40. Though honestly I'd be scared of that match. But I'm just picturing it: Mario leads with the board vote, as expected. Then Link jumps to 52% the second update. Come morning he just crushes the poll and is picking up a lot of updates where he doubles Mario in the ASV.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#365 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 8/1/2013 12:16:02 AM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
There's also the other option, the Link-only contest.

I thought you were going to suggest that Link finally get the Mega Man X treatment for a contest, and we have a bracket made up of every incarnation of Link.
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#366 | XIII_rocks | Posted 8/1/2013 12:16:02 AM | message detail
Snake beating Link, even with Mario in the poll, is this site's ultimate moment. I want that more than I want Link out.

The upside of that not happening, though, is undoubtedly the fact that Link's presence is untenable if he beats the 2nd or 3rd strongest character even with Mario in the poll.
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#367 | hellfire104 | Posted 8/1/2013 12:20:07 AM | message detail
So my observation here is that this is a pretty good showing for Pikachu. You've got Pikachu in a night match, which is obviously weaker than a day match Pikachu, up against a mid card Big Daddy, and a lower mid card Lloyd. Pikachu getting 53% here isn't so bad.

Crono on the other hand only managed 60% against a weaker match up.

When we get Pikachu during the day in a match where Magus is pulling votes off of Crono, Pikachu strong during the day, Crono weak during the day, don't be shocked when Pikachu wins this one.

67% of the Guru's picked Pikachu. Heavy favorite.
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Point Total: 44/46. Guru Status: Alive
My Bracket Says: Night: Pikachu Day: Magus
#368 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/1/2013 12:21:38 AM | message detail
I'm not even going to address the rest of that when you literally just called Big Daddy a midcard in the same statement as Lloyd being a lower midcard
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#369 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/1/2013 12:22:35 AM | message detail
67% of the Gurus picked Pikachu for next round? I don't know why, but suddenly I'm feeling better about Crono.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#370 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/1/2013 12:24:42 AM | message detail
And I need to give Snake some credit where it's due. That 2008 match made me feel more excited as a Link fan than I've felt since 2003/4. It was a little like the feeling I get from Crono matches.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#371 | hellfire104 | Posted 8/1/2013 1:10:36 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
I'm not even going to address the rest of that when you literally just called Big Daddy a midcard in the same statement as Lloyd being a lower midcard


The 2010 x-stats place big daddy above Leon and Gordon and at the same level as Zack, Fox, and L-block. Is that a midcard? I was thinking yes.
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Point Total: 44/46. Guru Status: Alive
My Bracket Says: Night: Pikachu Day: Magus
#372 | ZinsanityCraze | Posted 8/1/2013 1:11:05 AM | message detail
hellfire104 posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
I'm not even going to address the rest of that when you literally just called Big Daddy a midcard in the same statement as Lloyd being a lower midcard


The 2010 x-stats place big daddy above Leon and Gordon and at the same level as Zack, Fox, and L-block. Is that a midcard? I was thinking yes.


Be flexible, look at the current result.
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#373 | hellfire104 | Posted 8/1/2013 1:19:12 AM | message detail
ZinsanityCraze posted...
hellfire104 posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
I'm not even going to address the rest of that when you literally just called Big Daddy a midcard in the same statement as Lloyd being a lower midcard


The 2010 x-stats place big daddy above Leon and Gordon and at the same level as Zack, Fox, and L-block. Is that a midcard? I was thinking yes.


Be flexible, look at the current result.


Did you generate a statistical summary? The result of big daddy here could just as easily be caused by a stronger Pikachu or any number of other factors. I'm just going off of something more concrete than flat eyeball assumptions.
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Point Total: 44/46. Guru Status: Alive
My Bracket Says: Night: Pikachu Day: Magus
#374 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 8/1/2013 1:21:34 AM | message detail
hellfire104 posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
I'm not even going to address the rest of that when you literally just called Big Daddy a midcard in the same statement as Lloyd being a lower midcard


The 2010 x-stats place big daddy above Leon and Gordon and at the same level as Zack, Fox, and L-block. Is that a midcard? I was thinking yes.

Lloyd is beating Big Daddy right now. He can't be lower ranking than him. And Lloyd is definitely not a midcarder.

Plus there's stuff like the fact that Crono got 63%, not 60%, and that Pikachu can't be both an upset pick and a heavy favorite at the same time.
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#375 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 8/1/2013 1:23:41 AM | message detail
hellfire104 posted...
The result of big daddy here could just as easily be caused by a stronger Pikachu

Lloyd's games have only released internationally on Nintendo consoles. Big Daddy hasn't had a single game on a Nintendo console. So if Pikachu were to be hurting anyone in this match, it would be Lloyd.

There's really no reason for Big Daddy to lose this if he's stronger than Lloyd.
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#376 | ZinsanityCraze | Posted 8/1/2013 1:25:36 AM | message detail
hellfire104 posted...
ZinsanityCraze posted...
hellfire104 posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
I'm not even going to address the rest of that when you literally just called Big Daddy a midcard in the same statement as Lloyd being a lower midcard


The 2010 x-stats place big daddy above Leon and Gordon and at the same level as Zack, Fox, and L-block. Is that a midcard? I was thinking yes.


Be flexible, look at the current result.


Did you generate a statistical summary? The result of big daddy here could just as easily be caused by a stronger Pikachu or any number of other factors. I'm just going off of something more concrete than flat eyeball assumptions.


Have fun thinking that this is a much stronger Pikachu or that Pikachu is severely LFFing Big Daddy to the point where he is losing to a fodder.

Whatever floats your boat.
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#377 | hellfire104 | Posted 8/1/2013 1:27:03 AM | message detail
Rad Link 5 posted...
hellfire104 posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
I'm not even going to address the rest of that when you literally just called Big Daddy a midcard in the same statement as Lloyd being a lower midcard


The 2010 x-stats place big daddy above Leon and Gordon and at the same level as Zack, Fox, and L-block. Is that a midcard? I was thinking yes.

Lloyd is beating Big Daddy right now. He can't be lower ranking than him. And Lloyd is definitely not a midcarder.

Plus there's stuff like the fact that Crono got 63%, not 60%, and that Pikachu can't be both an upset pick and a heavy favorite at the same time.


Pikachu isn't an upset. 67% of a population selecting one character makes that character the favorite. Crono winning is the upset.
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Point Total: 44/46. Guru Status: Alive
My Bracket Says: Night: Pikachu Day: Magus
#378 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 8/1/2013 1:30:55 AM | message detail | (edited)
hellfire104 posted...
Pikachu isn't an upset. 67% of a population selecting one character makes that character the favorite. Crono winning is the upset.

1) Correct. Being the favorite precludes you from being the upset. Which is why you warning people not to "be shocked when Pikachu wins this one" is contradictory.
2) While The Gurus are, technically, "a population," they're not "the population." The majority of the site probably still picked Crono. We'll see after the leaderboard is updated following their match.
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#379 | --Smurf-- | Posted 8/1/2013 2:23:25 AM | message detail
I say it every year but board 8 continuously dismisses Symphonia as "obscure fodder" and gets burned by it time and time again. There was literally someone in this thread yesterday talking up Lloyd for 10%, it's surreal how it never sinks in.
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#380 | scaryice | Posted 8/1/2013 2:24:26 AM | message detail
Rad Link 5 posted...
Lloyd's games have only released internationally on Nintendo consoles. Big Daddy hasn't had a single game on a Nintendo console. So if Pikachu were to be hurting anyone in this match, it would be Lloyd.


I disagree, Pikachu and Big Daddy are both well known to most gamers, whereas Lloyd isn't. I think Big Daddy does well with the more casual voters, but Pikachu probably crushes that group. I bet Daddy would easily beat Lloyd 1v1.
#381 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 8/1/2013 2:30:16 AM | message detail
I can't tell if you're serious.
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#382 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 8/1/2013 2:49:16 AM | message detail
I have almost no confidence in Pikachu and never had and I picked him because I think Magus + day match is enough for Pikachu to win with like 1%. I have no idea why people think it's not even debatable and Pikachu could beat Crono 1v1, no way.

Well, if something has to screw my bracket up, I suppose seeing Crono not disappoint would be satisfying enough.
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#383 | pjbasis | Posted 8/1/2013 3:06:18 AM | message detail
I have no idea.

I can see Crono losing to Pikachu 1v1 as much as I can see Crono muscling Pika out of the way even with Magus holding him back.
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#384 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 8/1/2013 3:18:17 AM | message detail
I wouldn't be surprised to see Crono beating Pikachu with Magus there even.
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#385 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/1/2013 3:21:09 AM | message detail
With this, literally THREE characters who made it to Round 3 last time are out in Round 1, two of them even ending up in last place.

Uh...Ridley vs. Big Daddy who've you got?
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#386 | hellfire104 | Posted 8/1/2013 3:28:03 AM | message detail
Rad Link 5 posted...
hellfire104 posted...
Pikachu isn't an upset. 67% of a population selecting one character makes that character the favorite. Crono winning is the upset.

1) Correct. Being the favorite precludes you from being the upset. Which is why you warning people not to "be shocked when Pikachu wins this one" is contradictory.
2) While The Gurus are, technically, "a population," they're not "the population." The majority of the site probably still picked Crono. We'll see after the leaderboard is updated following their match.


#1) was spoken in response to some prior discussion.

#2) while I understand your point, the "guru" have the more impressive score data at the moment and they are "the population" when it comes to prediction accuracy.

The "guru" population has a mode of 42 and has about 75% of scores are over 40.

The website population, which includes the gurus, by comparison has a mode of 32(10 less than the gurus) and has roughly only 5% of entries over 40.

Based on this, with all due respect, this "guru" population is "the population" when it comes to prediction and in effect, also placing the "spread" on the matches and frankly since its the only population set we have data for, make it the only actual population.

Just wanted to set that straight.
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Point Total: 44/46. Guru Status: Alive
My Bracket Says: Night: Pikachu Day: Magus
#387 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 8/1/2013 3:28:56 AM | message detail
Ridley wins, I think. When in doubt, go with Nintendo.
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#388 | Achromatic | Posted 8/1/2013 3:31:24 AM | message detail
--Smurf-- posted...
I say it every year but board 8 continuously dismisses Symphonia as "obscure fodder" and gets burned by it time and time again. There was literally someone in this thread yesterday talking up Lloyd for 10%, it's surreal how it never sinks in.


Like how both ToS guys were bounced round 1 in 2010. One of them by Sackboy.

Yeah the burns sure hurt from that <_<.
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#389 | Lopen | Posted 8/1/2013 3:36:48 AM | message detail
Actually scaryice's logic makes sense for some matches.

For instance a match like say... Pikachu vs Nathan Drake vs Phoenix Wright you could argue Pika would hurt Drake more than PW because Drake loses the advantage of the voters who haven't played Phoenix Wright defaulting to him whereas Phoenix's voters would tend to stick with him.

That being said Lloyd has proven capable of drawing over 50% of the vote in matches so I don't really think it applies here. ToS has enough play rate that the exposure factor isn't a big deal. Lloyd probably beats Big Daddy 1v1 this year.
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#390 | Qwaar | Posted 8/1/2013 3:37:06 AM | message detail
Big daddy slowly closing the gap.
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#391 | Achromatic | Posted 8/1/2013 3:37:43 AM | message detail
To be fair Big Daddy has kept it pretty close, this may also be one of those where it depends on the day of the week!
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#392 | Lopen | Posted 8/1/2013 3:39:13 AM | message detail
Also yeah Smurf lol

As someone who bets on Tales of Symphonia literally every time it seems remotely debatable out of fanboyism I've been burned a lot more times than not. This and Lloyd vs Wesker I think is the only time the characters have come through. The game panned out but yeah the characters not so much.
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#393 | Denzokuken | Posted 8/1/2013 3:49:40 AM | message detail
Big Daddy vs Lloyd please be Alucard vs Falcon part 2
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#394 | Dr_Coffee | Posted 8/1/2013 3:50:53 AM | message detail
Why was the bracket set up this way? If Crono loses to Pikachu because of Magus, it's a cheap win? Why not have Crono go up against Yoshi or Luigi or something with the third character being something neutral like Bayonetta?
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#395 | Achromatic | Posted 8/1/2013 3:51:54 AM | message detail
Because he'd rip them apart limb from limb. Let's face it, this way Crono vs Pikachu is super interesting and I approve.
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#396 | pjbasis | Posted 8/1/2013 3:54:34 AM | message detail
Almost under 300!

I haven't been keeping up though, how fast has he been catching up?
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#397 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/1/2013 3:54:57 AM | message detail
Dilated Chemist posted...
Ridley wins, I think. When in doubt, go with Nintendo.


Ooh better question, Ridley vs. Lloyd!
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#398 | Achromatic | Posted 8/1/2013 3:55:33 AM | message detail
pjbasis posted...
Almost under 300!

I haven't been keeping up though, how fast has he been catching up?



He was under 300 before that last update

And oh god that was a good cut just now.
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#399 | pjbasis | Posted 8/1/2013 4:00:59 AM | message detail
Come on Big Daddy, master of the morning.
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SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#400 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/1/2013 4:05:32 AM | message detail
France is doing work for Lloyd here, heh.
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We are living our lives
Abound with so much information