Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1086

#251 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/31/2013 10:14:56 PM | message detail
Now granted I didn't have any personal investment in either character, but I doubt being within reach of a prize would make me any more upset about Squall losing. I've won my prize money in the past and I'm content if I never win another dollar.
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#252 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/31/2013 10:14:56 PM | message detail
4chan's stupid Sidekick Battle

GameSpot, not 4chan there.
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#253 | Jakyl25 | Posted 7/31/2013 10:14:57 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Although Bacon getting it only makes setting up matches like Leon/Wesker/Oliver more egregious! If you're going to do something that silly, at least put someone in the match who can threaten to beat Leon!


Or even just a 3rd RE character <_<
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#254 | Lopen | Posted 7/31/2013 10:15:03 PM | message detail
Honestly we don't even have proof Bacon has a bracket. His "score" could just be some nebulous number designed to give people a goal to chase.
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#255 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 7/31/2013 10:15:03 PM | message detail
ExThaNemesis posted...
Jakyl25 posted...
But would you cheer for John Cena to beat Link?


Depends. If it's the main event of Wrestlemania for the WWE Title? Link.

If it's in a character battle final? LET'S GO CENA

Let's say it's a title unification match. WWE Champion John Cena vs Character Battle IX Champion Link for all the marbles. Main event of WrestleMania, with the results determined by a poll on the front page of GameFAQs that you can only vote in by browsing the site with the WWE App.
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#256 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/31/2013 10:15:17 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
4chan's stupid Sidekick Battle

GameSpot, not 4chan there.


It might as well have been 4chan's.
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#257 | kinsho3 | Posted 7/31/2013 10:15:38 PM | message detail
Argh, Pikachu is still crapping out percentage....

Still hoping he ends the match with 53%, though somebody like Big Daddy would be pretty good with the night vote, I think....
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Drop it to the floor...
#258 | creativename | Posted 7/31/2013 10:15:42 PM | message detail
Xuxon posted...
Pikachu and Crono have already had a match and Pikachu got 46% on him. it isn't THAT absurd to think Pikachu could have won even without Magus there. i just don't think these performances show that.

It should be noted that was in a match where Pikachu/L-Block was the only matchup that mattered, so Pikachu's %age against Crono should have been inflated.

Rad Link 5 posted...
To be fair to people debating Pikachu > Crono, the notion probably comes from how much the board talks about this idea that Chrono Trigger is dead. Crono barely loses a first round match to someone who goes on to almost beat Sephiroth, and all of a sudden he's clearly just an upper midcarder at best. It's silly, but I've even seen board regulars saying stuff along those lines, so it messes with people's expectations.

The funny thing is that Crono would have clearly won both a 12 hour night match and a 24 hour match with Missingno. Circumstances just aligned perfectly against Crono.

Crono has to be easily the unluckiest character ever - Ceej's handling of Mario/Crono II? Losing to a glitch under perfect storm conditions? The infamous Vincent/Crono trends match? He's has a rough road.
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#259 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/31/2013 10:17:11 PM | message detail
Well, losing to Vincent wasn't a matter of being unlucky unless you're just saying he was unlucky that he had to be the guy to break the Noble Nine when Vincent probably would've beaten Sonic (or maybe even Mega Man) that year, then yeah.

He got his revenge in spades the next year anyway. He combined Mario's and Frog's clutches into one.
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#260 | Jakyl25 | Posted 7/31/2013 10:17:11 PM | message detail
Rad Link 5 posted...
ExThaNemesis posted...
Jakyl25 posted...
But would you cheer for John Cena to beat Link?


Depends. If it's the main event of Wrestlemania for the WWE Title? Link.

If it's in a character battle final? LET'S GO CENA

Let's say it's a title unification match. WWE Champion John Cena vs Character Battle IX Champion Link for all the marbles. Main event of WrestleMania, with the results determined by a poll on the front page of GameFAQs that you can only vote in by browsing the site with the WWE App.


"Charizard is cashing in his Money in the ? Block!"
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#261 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/31/2013 10:18:19 PM | message detail
Eh, Crono/Vincent II is one of the biggest instances of cheating we'll see in these contests on Crono's part, so losing to a glitch the next year was just desserts (not that I particularly like seeing the glitch in these things).

I wish the updater's graph was still working so I could post the illustration of when Crono's votes started spiking over Samus.
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#262 | xp1337 | Posted 7/31/2013 10:18:28 PM | message detail
Lopen posted...
Honestly we don't even have proof Bacon has a bracket. His "score" could just be some nebulous number designed to give people a goal to chase.

He's put it pretty high then. Unless it's some personal challenge to Board 8.

It also doesn't make much sense given his whole side-bet with Devin unless you think they both don't have a bracket and decided who would "win" beforehand. Which really just seems like more trouble than them just setting up brackets. Because really if it's just a nebulous score, it's locking in their R1 picks right now. We could potentially catch them if they kept it up and did something inconsistent!
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#263 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 7/31/2013 10:18:33 PM | message detail
kinsho3 posted...
Argh, Pikachu is still crapping out percentage....

Still hoping he ends the match with 53%, though somebody like Big Daddy would be pretty good with the night vote, I think....


Lloyd is crapping out more % though
if Big Daddy comes back, do we revert to previous comparisons
#264 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 7/31/2013 10:18:39 PM | message detail
You guys keep talking about raging about not getting prize money. Pfft. I finished in a prize spot in 2006 and never received my prize! You know nothing of suffering!!
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#265 | Achromatic | Posted 7/31/2013 10:18:56 PM | message detail
SEISMIC TOSS THROUGH THE TABLE OOOOOOOOOOOOOOH MY GAAAAAAAAAAAWD.
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#266 | kinsho3 | Posted 7/31/2013 10:20:35 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
The funny thing is that Crono would have clearly won both a 12 hour night match and a 24 hour match with Missingno. Circumstances just aligned perfectly against Crono.

Crono has to be easily the unluckiest character ever - Ceej's handling of Mario/Crono II? Losing to a glitch under perfect storm conditions? The infamous Vincent/Crono trends match? He's has a rough road.


Wouldn't Crono have even won that match during the day had it not been for a rally? I vaguely remember there being tens of thousands of more votes than expected for a first-round match during that contest.
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Drop it to the floor...
#267 | TyrekeEvans13 | Posted 7/31/2013 10:20:41 PM | message detail
#268 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 7/31/2013 10:20:48 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Eh, Crono/Vincent II is one of the biggest instances of cheating we'll see in these contests on Crono's part, so losing to a glitch the next year was just desserts (not that I particularly like seeing the glitch in these things).

I wish the updater's graph was still working so I could post the illustration of when Crono's votes started spiking over Samus.


http://images3.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20081118001341/board8/images/e/eb/Graph3301.png
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#269 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/31/2013 10:20:49 PM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
LeonhartFour posted...
I dunno. To me, it's not really that it's Pikachu. I just don't like the idea of a Noble Niner getting punked in the second round by a guy who's clearly weaker than him because Bacon doesn't understand the concept of LFF.

Tribute to the Noble Nine my foot!

Do we know he doesn't get it? I always assumed he did and it was intentional to try and generate "surprising" results. Only they aren't really surprising to us.


Or he's among those who believe that Crono's weakened too much to really still "deserve" his spot among the Noble Nine and is giving him an "out". This is what I think has been happening--LFF opportunity here means that Crono has an excuse for losing unless Pika manages to take 50% outright; Crono faced Solid Snake in Round 1 in Rivalry Rumble and would've run into Sephiroth in Round 3 in CBVIII with a newcomer as one of the two foes he'd have to beat (so if he lost that match, it's still a closed circuit as long as Missingno. didn't lose to Yoshi in Round 2.) That's three straight contests where Crono can lose early and still not "look bad". If Crono really is weaker than a lot of the top midcarders now, the recent bracket construction allows for some plausible deniability.

So, um...Lloyd > Big Daddy. This is an upset, right?
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#270 | Sorozone | Posted 7/31/2013 10:21:05 PM | message detail
Big Daddy comeback trail is starting.
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#271 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 7/31/2013 10:21:29 PM | message detail
Lopen posted...
Honestly we don't even have proof Bacon has a bracket. His "score" could just be some nebulous number designed to give people a goal to chase.

I love this idea.

Doubly when you remember he's got a bet with Devin Morgan riding on this.
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#272 | Lopen | Posted 7/31/2013 10:22:03 PM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
Lopen posted...
Honestly we don't even have proof Bacon has a bracket. His "score" could just be some nebulous number designed to give people a goal to chase.

He's put it pretty high then. Unless it's some personal challenge to Board 8.

It also doesn't make much sense given his whole side-bet with Devin unless you think they both don't have a bracket and decided who would "win" beforehand. Which really just seems like more trouble than them just setting up brackets. Because really if it's just a nebulous score, it's locking in their R1 picks right now. We could potentially catch them if they kept it up and did something inconsistent!


I'm just sayin keep an eye out for it. I don't trust Bacon to understand how contests work otherwise he wouldn't have designed the bracket how he did several times running. I also don't trust him to care enough to like, copy the board cookie or anything either.

I mean it could just be a fluke, too. But Bacon making a good bracket legitimately doesn't add up to me.
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#273 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 7/31/2013 10:23:20 PM | message detail
Rad Link 5 posted...
ExThaNemesis posted...
Jakyl25 posted...
But would you cheer for John Cena to beat Link?


Depends. If it's the main event of Wrestlemania for the WWE Title? Link.

If it's in a character battle final? LET'S GO CENA

Let's say it's a title unification match. WWE Champion John Cena vs Character Battle IX Champion Link for all the marbles. Main event of WrestleMania, with the results determined by a poll on the front page of GameFAQs that you can only vote in by browsing the site with the WWE App.


this got so convoluted I am now convinced it could only happen in TNA
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#274 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/31/2013 10:24:10 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
I wish the updater's graph was still working so I could post the illustration of when Crono's votes started spiking over Samus.


Trend chart should suffice for this one!

Time | Samus | Vincent | Crono | Pikachu | Demographic | Votes
EBV | 30.23% | 22.77% | 26.36% | 20.63% | (0:00-0:05) | 1449
PHV | 31.19% | 22.24% | 27.30% | 19.26% | (0:00-1:00) | 10538
FNV | 30.41% | 26.09% | 25.92% | 17.59% | (1:00-6:00) | 21153
BSV | 32.04% | 25.65% | 24.08% | 18.23% | (6:00-9:00) | 13534
DSV | 31.62% | 25.73% | 25.87% | 16.78% | (9:00-14:30) | 28315
ASV | 30.28% | 24.90% | 23.65% | 19.88% | (14:30-22:00) | 41821
SNV | 28.58% | 24.63% | 28.21% | 18.59% | (22:00-24:00) | 7828

And despite those extremely shady last two hours, Vincent was still leading by 3 going into the last two updates!

And Crono won by 78.
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#275 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/31/2013 10:24:33 PM | message detail
Team Rocket Elite posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Eh, Crono/Vincent II is one of the biggest instances of cheating we'll see in these contests on Crono's part, so losing to a glitch the next year was just desserts (not that I particularly like seeing the glitch in these things).

I wish the updater's graph was still working so I could post the illustration of when Crono's votes started spiking over Samus.


http://images3.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20081118001341/board8/images/e/eb/Graph3301.png


yes, this, thank you

no shady business going on at the end of this match that's for sure
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#276 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/31/2013 10:25:24 PM | message detail
Rad Link 5 posted...
You guys keep talking about raging about not getting prize money. Pfft. I finished in a prize spot in 2006 and never received my prize! You know nothing of suffering!!


I finished in a prize spot in 2007 and got DQ'd for "vote stuffing!"

Lopen, too!
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#277 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 7/31/2013 10:25:34 PM | message detail
Man I don't know what prompted me to take Crono over Vincent there, but I was so happy with the way it shook down.
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Die young and save yourself.
Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work.
#278 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 7/31/2013 10:25:34 PM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
Lopen posted...
Honestly we don't even have proof Bacon has a bracket. His "score" could just be some nebulous number designed to give people a goal to chase.

He's put it pretty high then. Unless it's some personal challenge to Board 8.

It also doesn't make much sense given his whole side-bet with Devin unless you think they both don't have a bracket and decided who would "win" beforehand. Which really just seems like more trouble than them just setting up brackets. Because really if it's just a nebulous score, it's locking in their R1 picks right now. We could potentially catch them if they kept it up and did something inconsistent!


Maybe they've set it up so they tie at the end as an out so neither of them has to do it. Although since they should both have database access, one of them could stab the other in the back last second or something.
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#279 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 7/31/2013 10:27:27 PM | message detail
I was on the leaderboard for a prize spot after the main bracket in 05, only for Link to ruin me.

Then in that infamous year, I was in 3rd with both Football and Palmer having picked Snake. All I needed was for Sephiroth to not choke and I would be the winner of the contest.... UGH.

It gives me solace knowing that Snake > Sephiroth was literally not something I could have brought myself to pick and even if I'd taken it I wouldn't have won the contest anyway.
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Die young and save yourself.
Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work.
#280 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/31/2013 10:28:21 PM | message detail
Exactly why are we taking Pikachu's direct numbers on either one of these characters as meaning anything? That's not really the way these things work. For all we know, if you take one of those two characters out and make it a 1v1, Pikachu could end up getting like 95% of that character's votes--or he could only get 5% and end up looking even weaker. We don't know. I for one have to figure that we're dealing with three separate fanbases. I have no idea what proportion of Big Daddy's votes would go to Pikachu in a Pikachu vs. Lloyd 1v1 or what proportion of Lloyd's votes would go to him in a Pikachu-Big Daddy 1v1.
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#281 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 7/31/2013 10:29:11 PM | message detail
ExThaNemesis posted...
Rad Link 5 posted...
ExThaNemesis posted...
Jakyl25 posted...
But would you cheer for John Cena to beat Link?


Depends. If it's the main event of Wrestlemania for the WWE Title? Link.

If it's in a character battle final? LET'S GO CENA

Let's say it's a title unification match. WWE Champion John Cena vs Character Battle IX Champion Link for all the marbles. Main event of WrestleMania, with the results determined by a poll on the front page of GameFAQs that you can only vote in by browsing the site with the WWE App.


this got so convoluted I am now convinced it could only happen in TNA

The Rock is in John Cena's corner! Cloud Strife is in Link's!
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#282 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/31/2013 10:29:28 PM | message detail
I won prize money in 2008 because I decided to pick ToS to advance.

I mean, there's also every other match in the contest to consider, but in my heart I consider that what pushed me over the edge.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#283 | xp1337 | Posted 7/31/2013 10:29:45 PM | message detail
Team Rocket Elite posted...
xp1337 posted...
Lopen posted...
Honestly we don't even have proof Bacon has a bracket. His "score" could just be some nebulous number designed to give people a goal to chase.

He's put it pretty high then. Unless it's some personal challenge to Board 8.

It also doesn't make much sense given his whole side-bet with Devin unless you think they both don't have a bracket and decided who would "win" beforehand. Which really just seems like more trouble than them just setting up brackets. Because really if it's just a nebulous score, it's locking in their R1 picks right now. We could potentially catch them if they kept it up and did something inconsistent!


Maybe they've set it up so they tie at the end as an out so neither of them has to do it. Although since they should both have database access, one of them could stab the other in the back last second or something.

I thought about that, but unless they took the time to only differ on meaningless matches and planned it out that they'd even it out this could backfire on them. They can't control outcomes. Well, okay, they could but that'd be taking this a bit too far!

Really, I think the amount of planning they'd need to do to have scores this good so far, plus be able to come up with plausible differences that ultimately end up into a tie might actually be more challenging than just predicting it straight. I mean, at that level of effort they might as well just take the board cookie, it'd be faster.
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#284 | Achromatic | Posted 7/31/2013 10:30:15 PM | message detail
Tsunami is the master of knowing how things work.

I mean this is the stats and discussion topic we are discussing stats. Would you rather us play checkers? Actually that doesn't sound too bad.
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#285 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/31/2013 10:32:18 PM | message detail
Achromatic posted...
Tsunami is the master of knowing how things work.

I mean this is the stats and discussion topic we are discussing stats. Would you rather us play checkers? Actually that doesn't sound too bad.


http://www.pogo.com/games/online-checkers

It's the only way to settle debates around here.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#286 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 7/31/2013 10:32:39 PM | message detail
Also Vince McMahon and SBAllen have bet their hair on the results of the match!
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#287 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/31/2013 10:33:05 PM | message detail
#288 | Lopen | Posted 7/31/2013 10:33:25 PM | message detail
xp1337 posted...

I thought about that, but unless they took the time to only differ on meaningless matches and planned it out that they'd even it out this could backfire on them. They can't control outcomes. Well, okay, they could but that'd be taking this a bit too far!

Really, I think the amount of planning they'd need to do to have scores this good so far, plus be able to come up with plausible differences that ultimately end up into a tie might actually be more challenging than just predicting it straight. I mean, at that level of effort they might as well just take the board cookie, it'd be faster.


You're assuming they actually have physical brackets. I'm saying they have a score there that means nothing and the bracket is being built post results off of where the points are going.

I mean I'm not necessarily saying this is true, I'm just saying that it'd make a lot of sense!
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#289 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/31/2013 10:34:26 PM | message detail
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
Exactly why are we taking Pikachu's direct numbers on either one of these characters as meaning anything? That's not really the way these things work. For all we know, if you take one of those two characters out and make it a 1v1, Pikachu could end up getting like 95% of that character's votes--or he could only get 5% and end up looking even weaker. We don't know. I for one have to figure that we're dealing with three separate fanbases. I have no idea what proportion of Big Daddy's votes would go to Pikachu in a Pikachu vs. Lloyd 1v1 or what proportion of Lloyd's votes would go to him in a Pikachu-Big Daddy 1v1.


Well... duh? That's how these things work, that's why multiways are often very fluky and unreliable, even compared to 1v1s.

But it should mean something. The odds that Big Daddy would suddenly be crushing Lloyd if Pika wasn't here are very, very low indeed. Similarly, Pikachu's percentage on Lloyd is *probably* close to what he'd get 1v1. I'd use Big Daddy's percentages instead, but unless people want to estimate exactly how many Noble Niners Pikachu's going to decimate singlehandedly it's probably not worthwhile.
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#290 | ffmasterjose | Posted 7/31/2013 10:35:22 PM | message detail
Let's say it's a title unification match. WWE Champion John Cena vs Character Battle IX Champion Link for all the marbles. Main event of WrestleMania,

I'll save you the trouble of postulating this. Link taps out to the STFU in 8.8 seconds and Cena gets up holding his title as well as all of Link's titles in the air running around the ring like he hadn't of broken a single sweat

.
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NP: Pikachu > Big Daddy > Lloyd Irving
#291 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/31/2013 10:35:56 PM | message detail
I'm pretty sure it would take a lot more effort to set up a fake bracket system than to just make a bracket!
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#292 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/31/2013 10:36:07 PM | message detail
I mean, I'll put it this way - Pikachu is currently scoring more on Big Daddy than Link is expected to get in 2010.
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#293 | Lopen | Posted 7/31/2013 10:36:33 PM | message detail
Man Cena jobs a lot more than Link does I think Link uses his creative control to block that result if it goes down like that, brother
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#294 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/31/2013 10:36:55 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
I mean, I'll put it this way - Pikachu is currently scoring more on Big Daddy than Link is expected to get in 2010.


And it's not even the sprite round!
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#295 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/31/2013 10:37:14 PM | message detail
Xuxon posted...
From: Rad Link 5 | Posted: 7/31/2013 10:49:56 PM | #017
Kefka beating Solid S*** would be my second favorite contest result of all-time.

Plus it potentially sets up Cloud vs Kefka vs Sora.

That is just a hell of a semi-final.

it could also potentially set up Cloud vs Kefka vs Pikachu

which could potentially set up a Link vs 2 Pokemon final in his easiest win yet


No, Pikachu wouldn't win that because he'd be up against another Nintendo character in the match against Sora. We're more likely to see Cloud vs Kefka vs Fox because somehow Crono and Sora managed to Square SFF despite Crono being one of the only Square protagonists who hasn't appeared in a Kingdom Hearts game.

...Oh, right. Pikachu can beat Sora, but that requires Wolf to be strong enough to LFF Fox into losing to Blue despite Blue being weak enough that this stronger-than-expected Wolf could probably beat him in a 1v1, thereby allowing Nathan Drake to get past Blue due to LFF from Mr. Game & Watch and making Pikachu-Sora a fair fight.

...Given how convoluted that was, I actually think Crono and Sora somehow SFFing each other into losing to Fox is less insane.
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#296 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/31/2013 10:39:15 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
I mean, I'll put it this way - Pikachu is currently scoring more on Big Daddy than Link is expected to get in 2010.


And it's not even the sprite round!


Is Link going to be able to even break 40% on this electric mouse
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#297 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 7/31/2013 10:41:12 PM | message detail
We could get Sora going up against both Sprite Pikachu and Sprite Blue.

Sprite Blue to RSFF Pikachu on his way to first place.
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#298 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 7/31/2013 10:42:15 PM | message detail
So Crono/Pikachu is going to be a Day Match. Is that an advantage for Pikachu?
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#299 | Jakyl25 | Posted 7/31/2013 10:42:23 PM | message detail
Bad Big Daddy stop cutting.
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#300 | creativename | Posted 7/31/2013 10:43:28 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
I'd use Big Daddy's percentages instead, but unless people want to estimate exactly how many Noble Niners Pikachu's going to decimate singlehandedly it's probably not worthwhile.

Lloyd would also then be a near-elite and poor Black Turtle would be trying to figure out whether to shoot himself with a shotgun or slit his wrists.

(and with the hatred most of you have of BT, there would be much rejoicing)
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