Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1086

#151 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 7/31/2013 9:33:33 PM | message detail
Pikachu is doing a bit better on Lloyd than Ryu did on Yuri Lowell. Who is stronger, Lloyd or Yuri?
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#152 | creativename | Posted 7/31/2013 9:33:59 PM | message detail
kinsho3 posted...
Well, this blows. At least last match, I had a feeling Kerrigan would blow 2nd place against Missile. I had no idea with this match that Lloyd would be wiping the floor early on with Big Daddy.

Also, Pikachu is gonna be wiping the floor with Crono come next round. Getting 53% against these two chumps beats out 63% against Kerrigan and a dog that won 2nd place solely on his cuteness.

Getting 70% on Lloyd is pretty far from Crono-beater level, if Lloyd has stayed constant - although who the hell knows if he has or not. This site seems very up and down on Tales' characters.
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#153 | kinsho3 | Posted 7/31/2013 9:34:04 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...

...you really think Pikachu is above Crono when he's fighting tooth and nail to stay above what Fox scored on Lloyd last contest? You might as well put Crono below half the field.


Forget 2010 x-stats. Just compare this match to the last match. You know very well that Big Daddy and Lloyd combined stomp on the likes of Sarah Kerrigan and Missile combined. Crono can still win, but Pikachu is the favorite, especially if Magus gets involved in their little match-up.
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#154 | scaryice | Posted 7/31/2013 9:34:04 PM | message detail
Fun fact: Big Daddy was the strongest current-gen character in the last contest according to the xstats.
#155 | superange128 | Posted 7/31/2013 9:34:35 PM | message detail
I'd say Lloyd since more people played Symphonia

I would take Pika over Ryu
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#156 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/31/2013 9:35:04 PM | message detail
Guys, guys, you don't *need* any explanations. Just assume that Pikachu's value on Snake and Big Daddy's value on Tifa is legit, with a bit of rSFFing smooth out for Tifa against Sephiroth. Hail x-stats
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#157 | creativename | Posted 7/31/2013 9:35:37 PM | message detail
kinsho3 posted...
Forget 2010 x-stats. Just compare this match to the last match. You know very well that Big Daddy and Lloyd combined stomp on the likes of Sarah Kerrigan and Missile combined. Crono can still win, but Pikachu is the favorite, especially if Magus gets involved in their little match-up.

Yeah...this is wrong. "if" Magus isn't there Crono will win and it won't be close.

If Magus does make it, there is no firm favorite really.
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#158 | kinsho3 | Posted 7/31/2013 9:36:10 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...

Uhhh, it's probably a wash at this point.

Pikachu's group is probably a little stronger but not much.


A little stronger is being generous to Crono. When you have a dog win 2nd place in that match-up solely based on his cuteness, you know very well you're dealing with a fairly weak pair of characters.
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#159 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 7/31/2013 9:36:40 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
Rad Link 5 posted...
I don't think there can be any doubt at this point that Tifa was being punished in that match for Sephiroth beating MissingNo.

Or, far more reasonable, Big Daddy's strength has plummeted because as someone summed up earlier - he's a very "in the now" character. He had his shining moment and is no longer relevant to his own franchise, so, floppidity flop flop.

My biggest problem with that is looking at the other people who benefited from Big Daddy's performance on Tifa.

http://thengamer.com/xstats/ranks.php?name=Ness

Ness suddenly jumps up like 7% in the xsts, and I can't remember any good reason why that should have been the case.

http://thengamer.com/xstats/ranks.php?name=Soap%20MacTavish

Soap McTarvish at 23% seems suspect. At least to me.

http://thengamer.com/xstats/ranks.php?name=Geno

Even Geno's a bit stronger than usual, though that one's small enough to be handwaved.

If you assume Big Daddy was overrated because of an over-performance on Tifa, everyone else lines up better with what's expected of them.
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#160 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/31/2013 9:37:30 PM | message detail
kinsho3 posted...
Karma Hunter posted...

...you really think Pikachu is above Crono when he's fighting tooth and nail to stay above what Fox scored on Lloyd last contest? You might as well put Crono below half the field.


Forget 2010 x-stats. Just compare this match to the last match. You know very well that Big Daddy and Lloyd combined stomp on the likes of Sarah Kerrigan and Missile combined. Crono can still win, but Pikachu is the favorite, especially if Magus gets involved in their little match-up.


No, that's stupid; percentages matter - they matter the most! Otherwise you might as well start calling for Link's head with as scrubby as his competition was.
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#161 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/31/2013 9:37:32 PM | message detail
Chart from the day match:

Time | Crono | Kerrigan | Missile | Votes
0:05 | 57.25% | 17.17% | 25.58% | 559
1:00 | 60.63% | 17.82% | 21.54% 4735
2:00 | 58.42% | 16.62% | 24.96% | 3983
3:00 | 59.89% | 16.97% | 23.14% | 3530
4:00 | 62.33% | 18.73% | 18.94% | 2814
5:00 | 64.26% | 18.28% | 17.46% | 2714
6:00 | 64.99% | 18.16% | 16.85% | 2451
7:00 | 64.90% | 17.70% | 17.40% | 2299
8:00 | 65.58% | 18.15% | 16.27% | 2083
9:00 | 65.17% | 18.60% | 16.23% | 1941
10:00 | 67.44% | 17.04% | 15.52% | 1843
11:00 | 66.55% | 17.51% | 15.93% | 1776
12:00 | 66.24% | 18.24% | 15.53% | 1700

Pretty easy to tell when the rally ended! Crono doubled up the poll the last few hours after Europe went to bed. Missile becomes the first character this contest to beat another character despite losing more than half the hours to his opponent. Good job, boy!

X-Stats:

Crono – 50.00%
Missile – 23.41%
Sarah Kerrigan – 21.97%

Crono's prediction percentage was 87.11%
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#162 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/31/2013 9:39:06 PM | message detail
kinsho3 posted...
When you have a dog win 2nd place in that match-up solely based on his cuteness, you know very well you're dealing with a fairly weak pair of characters.


Both groups are weak. You're just being pointlessly dismissive because Missile is a dog for some reason.
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#163 | StarStormScream | Posted 7/31/2013 9:39:21 PM | message detail
Team Rocket Elite posted...
Pikachu is doing a bit better on Lloyd than Ryu did on Yuri Lowell. Who is stronger, Lloyd or Yuri?


It should still be Lloyd. Though I'm of the belief that Yuri we saw this year was his true strength since he wasn't up against a fellow jRPG character.
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#164 | Xuxon | Posted 7/31/2013 9:39:36 PM | message detail
From: Rad Link 5 | Posted: 8/1/2013 12:36:40 AM | #159
creativename posted...
Rad Link 5 posted...
I don't think there can be any doubt at this point that Tifa was being punished in that match for Sephiroth beating MissingNo.

Or, far more reasonable, Big Daddy's strength has plummeted because as someone summed up earlier - he's a very "in the now" character. He had his shining moment and is no longer relevant to his own franchise, so, floppidity flop flop.

My biggest problem with that is looking at the other people who benefited from Big Daddy's performance on Tifa.

http://thengamer.com/xstats/ranks.php?name=Ness

Ness suddenly jumps up like 7% in the xsts, and I can't remember any good reason why that should have been the case.

http://thengamer.com/xstats/ranks.php?name=Soap%20MacTavish

Soap McTarvish at 23% seems suspect. At least to me.

http://thengamer.com/xstats/ranks.php?name=Geno

Even Geno's a bit stronger than usual, though that one's small enough to be handwaved.

If you assume Big Daddy was overrated because of an over-performance on Tifa, everyone else lines up better with what's expected of them.

i think you misunderstand. even basing Big Daddy on Ness instead and ignoring the Tifa match entirely, his strength has plummeted. Ness would handle Lloyd fairly easily, and Big Daddy handled Ness fairly easily.
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#165 | creativename | Posted 7/31/2013 9:40:27 PM | message detail
If Big Daddy did overperform on Tifa, it surely wasn't due to Missingno's vengeance of all things.

Most likely just a total contrast in characters/games. Though I'd still go with Big Daddy dropping a lot route, just seems more realistic, especially as Pika's %age on Lloyd doesn't seem very remarkable.
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#166 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/31/2013 9:41:13 PM | message detail
Big Daddy is probably overrated and has dropped at the same time. Either way, I'm not taking Lloyd over Ness because of this.
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#167 | kinsho3 | Posted 7/31/2013 9:42:27 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...

No, that's stupid; percentages matter - they matter the most! Otherwise you might as well start calling for Link's head with as scrubby as his competition was.


Dude, no....just no. Link, Cloud, and Sephy suffer from anti-voting. Crono doesn't. He had a very ****ty pair of characters in his match-up and he barely managed to put up 63%. Dude, he's not winning next round.
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#168 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/31/2013 9:43:01 PM | message detail
Man, can't believe how crappy Kerrigan and Big Daddy looked. Could this year mark the return to 2004 level JRPG hardon trends? If so, kiss the Pika > Crono upset goodbye.
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#169 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/31/2013 9:43:41 PM | message detail
I can buy Big Daddy overperforming on Tifa because almost everything overperforms against FFVII, but he still looked better than Gordon. Fast forward three years, and Gordon (who has received absolutely nothing since 2007) looks like a stud and Big Daddy is bombing despite at least two clear poll advantages.
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#170 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/31/2013 9:44:55 PM | message detail
kinsho3 posted...
Karma Hunter posted...

No, that's stupid; percentages matter - they matter the most! Otherwise you might as well start calling for Link's head with as scrubby as his competition was.


Dude, no....just no. Link, Cloud, and Sephy suffer from anti-voting. Crono doesn't. He had a very ****ty pair of characters in his match-up and he barely managed to put up 63%. Dude, he's not winning next round.


I have Pikachu > Crono next round.

But your arguments are horrible, awful, atrocious. They make me less confident in my own bracket picking and I'm on the leaderboard!

Snake's group was far weaker than this, too. Wanna pull the trigger on Pikachu pulling it off when he couldn't do it given every single advantage he could possibly have?
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#171 | __hiei__ | Posted 7/31/2013 9:45:04 PM | message detail
kinsho3 posted...
Karma Hunter posted...

No, that's stupid; percentages matter - they matter the most! Otherwise you might as well start calling for Link's head with as scrubby as his competition was.


Dude, no....just no. Link, Cloud, and Sephy suffer from anti-voting. Crono doesn't. He had a very ****ty pair of characters in his match-up and he barely managed to put up 63%. Dude, he's not winning next round.



How is Pikachu's pair any better?

it's a dude who got beaten 70 - 30 by Fox and another dude even weaker than that.

hell, Big Daddy probably loses to Missile at this point.
#172 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 7/31/2013 9:45:08 PM | message detail
Two zeroes in a row for expert I guess. Go me.
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#173 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 7/31/2013 9:45:09 PM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Man, can't believe how crappy Kerrigan and Big Daddy looked. Could this year mark the return to 2004 level JRPG hardon trends? If so, kiss the Pika > Crono upset goodbye.


But Pika is from a JRPG too
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#174 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/31/2013 9:45:18 PM | message detail
Big Daddy was right behind Fox in the stats in 2010, too!
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#175 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 7/31/2013 9:45:54 PM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Man, can't believe how crappy Kerrigan and Big Daddy looked. Could this year mark the return to 2004 level JRPG hardon trends? If so, kiss the Pika > Crono upset goodbye.


Considering your usual attitude towards Tales characters, you're being way too nice to Big Daddy here! >_>
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#176 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/31/2013 9:46:34 PM | message detail
Lloyd with the kill shot those last two updates. I think he's safe now.
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#177 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 7/31/2013 9:46:47 PM | message detail
so Lloyd is basically absorbing % from Big Daddy while Pikachu is constant
well then....
#178 | kinsho3 | Posted 7/31/2013 9:46:50 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
kinsho3 posted...
When you have a dog win 2nd place in that match-up solely based on his cuteness, you know very well you're dealing with a fairly weak pair of characters.


Both groups are weak. You're just being pointlessly dismissive because Missile is a dog for some reason.


I take it you have Crono winning next round. Yeah.

It's funny how some of us retroactively rewrite history in order to bolster any positive sentiments they may have for later picks. None of us rightly expected anything from Missile before the match even started. And then he goes ahead and actually performs well, for a fairly unknown character from a very niche game. Yeah, Kerrigan really blew the ball in that match, but so did Crono. The fact that Crono couldn't gather over 70% of the votes against such weak competition is very unsettling. I say this as a huge fan of Crono - he's not winning the next matchup.
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#179 | MoogleKupo141 | Posted 7/31/2013 9:47:11 PM | message detail
Clearly Big Daddy is being SFFed

don't ask why
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#180 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/31/2013 9:48:07 PM | message detail
Then00bAvenger posted...
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Man, can't believe how crappy Kerrigan and Big Daddy looked. Could this year mark the return to 2004 level JRPG hardon trends? If so, kiss the Pika > Crono upset goodbye.


But Pika is from a JRPG too

Even though Pokemon is an RPG from Japan, I hesitate to call it a JRPG.
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#181 | Achromatic | Posted 7/31/2013 9:48:09 PM | message detail
kinsho3 posted...
LeonhartFour posted...
kinsho3 posted...
When you have a dog win 2nd place in that match-up solely based on his cuteness, you know very well you're dealing with a fairly weak pair of characters.


Both groups are weak. You're just being pointlessly dismissive because Missile is a dog for some reason.


I take it you have Crono winning next round. Yeah.

It's funny how some of us retroactively rewrite history in order to bolster any positive sentiments they may have for later picks. None of us rightly expected anything from Missile before the match even started. And then he goes ahead and actually performs well, for a fairly unknown character from a very niche game. Yeah, Kerrigan really blew the ball in that match, but so did Crono. The fact that Crono couldn't gather over 70% of the votes against such weak competition is very unsettling. I say this as a huge fan of Crono - he's not winning the next matchup.


You don't know much about direct %s if you think Crono was supposed to get 70% in that match, sorry.
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#182 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 7/31/2013 9:49:30 PM | message detail | (edited)
I think the whole being dismissive of his performance because he's a cute dog is silly, too, but then again I think being dismissive of characters with boobs is silly, too, so what do I know~

Xuxon posted...
i think you misunderstand. even basing Big Daddy on Ness instead and ignoring the Tifa match entirely, his strength has plummeted. Ness would handle Lloyd fairly easily, and Big Daddy handled Ness fairly easily.

Oh don't get me wrong, I didn't mean his strength hasn't plummeted (although I still think he's gonna end this match looking a lot better than he does right now, but still weaker). All I said was that he definitely overperformed on Tifa. I thought the whole thing about MissingNo. backlash was overblown before, but it's hard to believe Big Daddy plummeted this badly if his performance on Tifa is to be believed. Could still have overperformed for another reason, I guess, though.
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#183 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/31/2013 9:48:24 PM | message detail
For the record, Pikachu's current mark on Lloyd would put him pretty much even with Ryu and Dante based on the 2010 stats.

Pretty impressive, but not enough to beat Crono.
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#184 | GloryChaos | Posted 7/31/2013 9:48:36 PM | message detail
A Tales of Symphonia remake was announced this year. And Tales fans have been far more active recently due to all the shouting over localizing games. All this hype got other people into the series as well.

I could see Lloyd getting a boost from this.
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#185 | creativename | Posted 7/31/2013 9:48:56 PM | message detail
LordoftheMorons posted...
Two zeroes in a row for expert I guess. Go me.

Don't worry, you aren't going to lose any ground!

No picking almost the whole division isn't looking like a bad idea at this point...

Then00bAvenger posted...
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Man, can't believe how crappy Kerrigan and Big Daddy looked. Could this year mark the return to 2004 level JRPG hardon trends? If so, kiss the Pika > Crono upset goodbye.


But Pika is from a JRPG too

Heh, I was about to say this too, but figured it was too snarky considering the context...
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#186 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/31/2013 9:49:16 PM | message detail
kinsho3 posted...
None of us rightly expected anything from Missile before the match even started.


I don't know why you bolded the most irrelevant statement in your post.

Our pre-match expectations of a character mean nothing.
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#187 | kinsho3 | Posted 7/31/2013 9:49:31 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...

I have Pikachu > Crono next round.

But your arguments are horrible, awful, atrocious. They make me less confident in my own bracket picking and I'm on the leaderboard!

Snake's group was far weaker than this, too. Wanna pull the trigger on Pikachu pulling it off when he couldn't do it given every single advantage he could possibly have?


Solid Snake actually had a character with halfway decent strength (relative to other fodder) in Isaac.

I'm seriously surprised you think Kerrigan and Missile could compare to the likes of Big Daddy and Lloyd. They simply can't.
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#188 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/31/2013 9:49:37 PM | message detail
Team Rocket Elite posted...
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Man, can't believe how crappy Kerrigan and Big Daddy looked. Could this year mark the return to 2004 level JRPG hardon trends? If so, kiss the Pika > Crono upset goodbye.


Considering your usual attitude towards Tales characters, you're being way too nice to Big Daddy here! >_>


Bioshock is a crappy game, I never understood where the nerd-boners came from. I'm just surprised a Fails character is managing to not completely stink up the joint. My main issue with Fails characters is that every years theres 4-8 of them in the bracket, and they all hover at around 12% BL
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#189 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/31/2013 9:49:58 PM | message detail
Well, based on the last two matches and how Western characters have performed in them, I can't say this makes me feel good about Drake running through a Nintendo gauntlet in R2 (or hell, even beating Pac-Man).
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#190 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 7/31/2013 9:50:16 PM | message detail
We were just wrong about Missile. It's as simple as that. It's not the first time we've messed up on predicting a complete unknown and it won't be the last. Crono looked fine relative to Kerrigan who is a known quantity.
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#191 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 7/31/2013 9:51:33 PM | message detail
Team Rocket Elite posted...
We were just wrong about Missile. It's as simple as that. It's not the first time we've messed up on predicting a complete unknown and it won't be the last. Crono looked fine relative to Kerrigan who is a known quantity.


hasn't Kerrigan fallen a lot though
#192 | MoogleKupo141 | Posted 7/31/2013 9:51:38 PM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Team Rocket Elite posted...
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Man, can't believe how crappy Kerrigan and Big Daddy looked. Could this year mark the return to 2004 level JRPG hardon trends? If so, kiss the Pika > Crono upset goodbye.


Considering your usual attitude towards Tales characters, you're being way too nice to Big Daddy here! >_>


Bioshock is a crappy game, I never understood where the nerd-boners came from. I'm just surprised a Fails character is managing to not completely stink up the joint. My main issue with Fails characters is that every years theres 4-8 of them in the bracket, and they all hover at around 12% BL


This is the worst post.
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#193 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/31/2013 9:52:03 PM | message detail
kinsho3 posted...
Karma Hunter posted...

I have Pikachu > Crono next round.

But your arguments are horrible, awful, atrocious. They make me less confident in my own bracket picking and I'm on the leaderboard!

Snake's group was far weaker than this, too. Wanna pull the trigger on Pikachu pulling it off when he couldn't do it given every single advantage he could possibly have?


Solid Snake actually had a character with halfway decent strength (relative to other fodder) in Isaac.

I'm seriously surprised you think Kerrigan and Missile could compare to the likes of Big Daddy and Lloyd. They simply can't.


They don't have to, Crono did a *lot* better than Pikachu is doing now on his pack. Isaac is halfway decent, but he's weaker than both Lloyd and Big Daddy and Commander Keen is nothing.

If you call for Crono's head, you might as well start calling for Snake's. The rat is obviously weaker than Crono directly, the question is Magus.
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#194 | jacko_vdz | Posted 7/31/2013 9:52:14 PM | message detail
Right now I think Crono is definitely stronger than Pikachu, but I think Magus being there will be enough to give Pikachu the win. Should still be close though.
#195 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/31/2013 9:53:12 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
Team Rocket Elite posted...
We were just wrong about Missile. It's as simple as that. It's not the first time we've messed up on predicting a complete unknown and it won't be the last. Crono looked fine relative to Kerrigan who is a known quantity.


hasn't Kerrigan fallen a lot though


Why would Kerrigan fall when SC2 had a Kerrigan focused expansion not 5 months ago?
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#196 | Achromatic | Posted 7/31/2013 9:53:20 PM | message detail
I find it absurd that people are actually trying to debate that Pikachu > Crono straight up. Like, Crono > Pikachu is not even a debate or anything. It is all about Magus being there.
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#197 | StarStormScream | Posted 7/31/2013 9:53:24 PM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Bioshock is a crappy game, I never understood where the nerd-boners came from. I'm just surprised a Fails character is managing to not completely stink up the joint. My main issue with Fails characters is that every years theres 4-8 of them in the bracket, and they all hover at around 12% BL


That's some revisionist history >.> Lloyd & Kratos A are weak, but they've never been garbage.
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#198 | Xuxon | Posted 7/31/2013 9:53:52 PM | message detail
Isaac isn't weaker than Lloyd, Keen is just turbo fodder
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#199 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 7/31/2013 9:53:59 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
Team Rocket Elite posted...
We were just wrong about Missile. It's as simple as that. It's not the first time we've messed up on predicting a complete unknown and it won't be the last. Crono looked fine relative to Kerrigan who is a known quantity.


hasn't Kerrigan fallen a lot though

Granted I don't really follow Starcraft, but hasn't she had a hit game and an expansion pack since her last appearance? And didn't the expansion pack come out just a few months ago? I wouldn't expect someone to get weaker from that.
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#200 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 7/31/2013 9:54:38 PM | message detail
clearly Lloyd is doing so well because Crono fans are voting for him to make Pikachu look bad *grabs tinfoil hat*