Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1085

#401 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/31/2013 5:21:32 PM | message detail
I thought people would like MGSV Ocelot!

http://i.imgur.com/xRpaADe.jpg

It was from a pic like that, can't find the exact one.

Sorry, my bad. I didn't realize it would do damage. I figured people like the Big Boss MGSV pic so I'd do Ocelot, too.
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~Zen
#402 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/31/2013 5:23:44 PM | message detail
ZenOfThunder posted...
I thought people would like MGSV Ocelot!

http://i.imgur.com/xRpaADe.jpg

It was from a pic like that, can't find the exact one.

Sorry, my bad. I didn't realize it would do damage. I figured people like the Big Boss MGSV pic so I'd do Ocelot, too.


It's just not that recognizable but it's fine, Ocelot never looks great in any pic he gets. Also it made me laugh.
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#403 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/31/2013 5:25:09 PM | message detail
At least I get chuckles! I worked for a very long time on that pic. It's hard cutting things out from a video cuz they're compressed differently from stills. Then I had to get all the brightness and colors and stuff right.

He does look kinda real. Maybe cuz I saw it before it was a pic it didn't really hit me, but yeah, that's freaky.
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~Zen
#404 | --Smurf-- | Posted 7/31/2013 5:29:47 PM | message detail
Kerrigan definitely would have taken 2nd here without the rally, 1000 votes against a slightly stronger character is just insurmountable with such low votals. 3rd match now the order was impacted by 4chan (Tharja) & Reddit (Draven) rallies.
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#405 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/31/2013 5:30:47 PM | message detail
Just curious, but what's the board's consensus on Ezio vs Tails?
#406 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 7/31/2013 5:32:54 PM | message detail
Tharja probably wins even without any rallying that match, though. Tina was rallied too, remember.
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#407 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/31/2013 5:33:21 PM | message detail
Not a great pic for Creeper--he still has the Missingno type of joke appeal, but they took away that phallic factor that could've boosted his joke status quite a bit.
Girly men on each side, and Wrex in the middle. This looks like it's going to be an interesting match.
I don't know if that's an awful Magikarp pic or a brilliant one. I don't think it's a great one for Mega, though. And Geno apparently only has one picture, so he'd be screwed if he ever actually won a match.
Well, um, that...is definitely a match pic. Start with Travis's beam saber pointing right at Recette, and anyone who knows anything about No More Heroes is going to be thinking certain things. Then you look further to the left and see that Kratos appears to be glaring at Travis, and it's almost as if he's one of those people who has played No More Heroes and is thinking, "Travis, you sick ****, don't even think about it!" I think I need to vote for Recette in that match. If there's any hope at all that she can get second, I'm taking it. Also, I might already have my "Why Did They Lose" for that match.
Wait, didn't we already just have Mega Man's match? >_> Seriously, that might be the worst possible picture of Jill, unless she was actually in Resident Evil Gaiden. Look for a random Red Bird overperformance.
What the...that cannot be a canon picture of Kratos Aurion. Also, not-Kratos is going to lose to a chocobo.
...Seriously? Your opponents are a pair of boxes; this match pic should've been a piece of cake. I mean, Lenneth's boobs are big enough that I still can see them, but her arm's in the way of the better part of them and it isn't exactly made clear that that long flowing blue hair isn't just a helmet. It wouldn't be that hard to mistake her for yet another girly male RPG protagonist. Forget seeding advantage; WCC's got this all wrapped up.
Beautiful. Beautiful! The worst of the joke nominations is dead in the water. ? Block really needed an SMB pic to be at maximum strength; maybe an SMB3/SMW pic at the worst. That 3D model certainly isn't beating Rikku in a bikini. I just feel bad for Lyndis--jokeFEAR on one side, superior TJF on the other. Poor girl doesn't stand a chance.
Angry Sackboy is hilarious. Zelda's SS art probably does her no favors, but I wasn't even sure who Marston was, and the ridiculous font Bacon's been using wasn't helping at first. Still, if pic factor is a thing, Zelda's going to underperform a bit this round, so if she can get a better pic next round, Marston and Sackboy will probably be a tad overrated in the X-Stats.
And Bacon's awful bracket-making strikes again. 1v1, I actually would consider Donkey Kong here. He's got the best of this pic, while Lightning has the worst of it.
Charizard so strong! White-haired pretty boy SFF crushes Nier, especially because he's not even that pretty.
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#408 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/31/2013 5:34:43 PM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
Just curious, but what's the board's consensus on Ezio vs Tails?


Ezio's got it. He showed legitimate strength and he stands out in that match.
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#409 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 7/31/2013 5:35:34 PM | message detail
--Smurf-- posted...
Kerrigan definitely would have taken 2nd here without the rally, 1000 votes against a slightly stronger character is just insurmountable with such low votals. 3rd match now the order was impacted by 4chan (Tharja) & Reddit (Draven) rallies.


2nd match, Tharja got a rally after Tiny Tina
#410 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/31/2013 5:35:45 PM | message detail
--Smurf-- posted...
Kerrigan definitely would have taken 2nd here without the rally, 1000 votes against a slightly stronger character is just insurmountable with such low votals. 3rd match now the order was impacted by 4chan (Tharja) & Reddit (Draven) rallies.


Tharja was rallied in that match? That's...what was 4chan on? Didn't they realize Tharja was the favorite to begin with?
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#411 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/31/2013 5:37:52 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
ZenOfThunder posted...
I thought people would like MGSV Ocelot!

http://i.imgur.com/xRpaADe.jpg

It was from a pic like that, can't find the exact one.

Sorry, my bad. I didn't realize it would do damage. I figured people like the Big Boss MGSV pic so I'd do Ocelot, too.


It's just not that recognizable but it's fine, Ocelot never looks great in any pic he gets. Also it made me laugh.


Yeah, it remains to be seen if it'll be damaging. Heck, if enough people feel the same way, it could actually help him!

I mean, that pic is seriously awesome.
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#412 | Lopen | Posted 7/31/2013 5:38:32 PM | message detail
Tiny Tina was rallied by reddit as well. The rallies in the Tharja match balanced out I think
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This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#413 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/31/2013 5:39:58 PM | message detail
awww thanks Tsunami. I'm happy you like my Rikku pic, too.
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~Zen
#414 | creativename | Posted 7/31/2013 5:51:37 PM | message detail
Whoa, 3 updates in a row where Missile's lead was 666! Dog=Antichrist confirmed.

TsunamiXXVIII, you seem strangely obsessed with TJF being an actual thing that, like, matters. Even though I can't recall a match where it's ever actually meant anything. And plenty of matches where this supposed TJF bombed horribly. TJF is a joke meme, not something worth mentioning in a real analysis.
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#415 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/31/2013 5:51:39 PM | message detail
Yeah, Ocelot looks good there. Like MGS1 Ocelot if he got updated to next-gen production values, really.
#416 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 7/31/2013 5:54:00 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
Whoa, 3 updates in a row where Missile's lead was 666! Dog=Antichrist confirmed.

TsunamiXXVIII, you seem strangely obsessed with TJF being an actual thing that, like, matters. Even though I can't recall a match where it's ever actually meant anything. And plenty of matches where this supposed TJF bombed horribly. TJF is a joke meme, not something worth mentioning in a real analysis.


it might actually make a difference in an all-fodder match
that's about it though
#417 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/31/2013 5:55:16 PM | message detail
TJF is an actual thing that got conclusively proven this contest. A real, actual thing. It's not worth that much, but a bottom of the barrel entity like Poison doesn't do anything in her match without being propped up by those huge jugs.
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#418 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/31/2013 5:58:09 PM | message detail | (edited)
I think if we got three super obscure characters that not even the board recognized and one had their boobs hanging out, it'd make a difference, but in a real match it might sway like... a dozen or so horny nerds, but it really is a non-factor. Morrigan may have destroyed Edgey and 47, but that's because they're Edgey and 47, not because I gave her big boobies. Morrigan is an icon in her own right. An icon for having nice boobs, but an icon nonetheless.

but Neku was pretty close to Laharl before he was in a KH game and had an iOS port, and Laharl is most likely stronger than Catherine, so Neku should have a pretty easy time. And we've seen how poorly new western guys have been doing, so Vaas is probably screwed regardless of boobs.
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~Zen
#419 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/31/2013 6:00:19 PM | message detail
ZenOfThunder posted...
I think if we got three super obscure characters that not even the board recognized and one had their boobs hanging out, it'd make a difference, but in a real match it might sway like... a dozen or so horny nerds, but it really is a non-factor. Morrigan may have destroyed Edgey and 47, but that's because they're Edgey and 47, not because I gave her big boobies. Morrigan is an icon in her own right. An icon for having nice boobs, but an icon nonetheless.

but Neku was pretty close to Laharl before he was in a KH game and had an iOS port, and Laharl is most likely stronger than Catherine, so Neku should have a pretty easy time. And we've seen how poorly new western guys have been doing, so Vaas is probably screwed regardless of boobs.


I don't mind the Catherine pic's style (I'll be voting for her, she's one of my personal favorite characters in the bracket), and I have Neku so I'm not really miffed, but I'd be a lot more scared if her boobs were hanging out. I still don't think most people will know who Neku Sakuraba or Vaas are, which is pretty much the prerequisite for TJF potentially doing anything.
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#420 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 7/31/2013 6:01:36 PM | message detail
I was just hoping for a Catherine pic that resembled the game cover since it's so recognizable.

The boobs really help though
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#421 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/31/2013 6:05:56 PM | message detail
It doesn't matter much. So far this contest it's mostly just helped fodder look like slightly better fodder. Of course, two of the bustiest characters in the bracket wound up in the same opening match so LOL at that.
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#422 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/31/2013 6:08:33 PM | message detail
really what is up with tifa's boobs in her pic

it is UNGODLY

how are they that big
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~Zen
#423 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 7/31/2013 6:11:19 PM | message detail | (edited)
Yeah, I don't really care about my bracket (I can't even remember if I went for Neku or Catherine), it's more that I liked the game so wanted her to get her best pic.

Plus I just prefer it when characters who might only have 1 match, and we haven't seen before, get their best picture for stats purposes. If she was a lock to go through, I wouldn't care so much about her R1 pic.

I don't think you intentionally did it, and I can see why you would think it's a good pic for her, it's just disappointing really if she loses with that pic (which is likely, I assume Neku is the favorite regardless of pic)
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#424 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 7/31/2013 6:09:28 PM | message detail
Just curious, but what's the board's consensus on Ezio vs Tails?

Ezio wins.

Tails is better than he is generally given credit for, though. People don't want to believe he has any strength at all and since he never actually beat anyone except Viewtiful Joe they haven't had to alter that perception. People were shocked by what Tails got on God of War III hype Kratos in 2010 but they shouldn't have been if they had looked at his contest history.

In a fair match I might pick Tails for the upset, since Ezio and Tails were pretty close in strength in 2010 (though Ezio might be stronger now), but day match and Bomberman probably both hurt Tails more.
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#425 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/31/2013 6:12:47 PM | message detail
Sorry if I screwed up her chances. I just remembered I made this as well:

http://i.imgur.com/Bo9ArqE.png

Which I guess Bacon didn't like as much as the zoomed-out one
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~Zen
#426 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/31/2013 6:13:30 PM | message detail
ShatteredElysium posted...
Yeah, I don't really care about my bracket (I can't even remember if I went for Neku or Catherine)


I know the feeling, I'm still marveling at the picks that I've made that I had absolutely no clue about.

I mean, Mewtwo > Vincent being a lock I aside, I have Groose winning his match (who the f*** is Groose), Booker (again, who), Neku (Nekwho), and Dragonborn (uhhhhh).

So just enjoying the ride because most of this fodderstuff is obviously up in the air, hopefully everyone has a good showing.
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#427 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/31/2013 6:14:21 PM | message detail
ShatteredElysium posted...
Yeah, I don't really care about my bracket (I can't even remember if I went for Neku or Catherine), it's more that I liked the game so wanted her to get her best pic.

Plus I just prefer it when characters who might only have 1 match, and we haven't seen before, get their best picture for stats purposes. If she was a lock to go through, I wouldn't care so much about her R1 pic.

I don't think you intentionally did it, and I can see why you would think it's a good pic for her, it's just disappointing really if she loses with that pic (which is likely, I assume Neku is the favorite regardless of pic)


Most people seemed to think Catherine was the favorite. Me, I figured this would be another "none of the characters are that well-known and Neku's been around the longest, has been in the most contests, and has the highest seed, so he probably wins. Just like when Laharl beat him and when Vyse beat Laharl.
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#428 | MoogleKupo141 | Posted 7/31/2013 6:15:35 PM | message detail
seifer or celes
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#429 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/31/2013 6:16:05 PM | message detail
http://www.ign.com/articles/2013/07/31/is-a-red-dead-redemption-sequel-coming

too bad Marston is stuck with Zelda, cuz if this news dropped the day of his match he might have done something with it
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~Zen
#430 | Julian_Caesar | Posted 7/31/2013 6:16:06 PM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
Just curious, but what's the board's consensus on Ezio vs Tails?


As with most matches where I'm torn 50-50 or 60-40, I pick the character I like less...with the logic being that my judgment is inherently skewed. Thus if my pick wins, I get the point. If it loses, the character I like better wins :D

So I picked Ezio, but will not be unhappy if Tails pulls a surprise victory
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#431 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/31/2013 6:16:13 PM | message detail
Catherine I'm pretty sure is the board favorite. I was pretty worried about Neku if Catherine went full seductress on the voters (again no offense Zen) but if she beats the kid now Neku has absolutely no excuse.
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#432 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/31/2013 6:18:16 PM | message detail | (edited)
i feel really bad about Catherine. I was so sure the pic was cool as hell! I guess I should have focused on boobs rather than making a pic I liked. Sorry.

EDIT: hope that didn't sound sarcastic I don't wanna be an ass
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~Zen
#433 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/31/2013 6:18:51 PM | message detail
PS I hope making the most juggalicious Rikku pic ever makes up for it

boobs > blocks
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~Zen
#434 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/31/2013 6:20:33 PM | message detail
There's a block in Rikku's match!?
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#435 | Dr_Coffee | Posted 7/31/2013 6:25:00 PM | message detail
Scorpion will beat Sora (Aya will hurt him), easily win his second match and beat Fox and Pikachu thanks to LFF winning the division
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#436 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/31/2013 6:26:03 PM | message detail
It *is* 2002 all over again this year
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#437 | Dr_Coffee | Posted 7/31/2013 6:27:18 PM | message detail
MoogleKupo141 posted...
seifer or celes


Celes. Nobody likes Seifer. He could literally be the weakest FF character we've ever seen
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#438 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 7/31/2013 6:29:07 PM | message detail
Tharja was rallied in that match? That's...what was 4chan on? Didn't they realize Tharja was the favorite to begin with?

Not how it works. They don't like Borderlands 2 (I saw a lot of "Memelands 2" comments) and are I think slightly positive at worst on Fire Emblem. They saw it was close, therefore they helped the Fire Emblem character. They don't do upsets for the sake of doing upsets; they have to like the thing they're rallying for (or at least think it's funny) or dislike the thing they're rallying against.
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#439 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/31/2013 6:31:48 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
ShatteredElysium posted...
Yeah, I don't really care about my bracket (I can't even remember if I went for Neku or Catherine)


I know the feeling, I'm still marveling at the picks that I've made that I had absolutely no clue about.

I mean, Mewtwo > Vincent being a lock I aside, I have Groose winning his match (who the f*** is Groose), Booker (again, who), Neku (Nekwho), and Dragonborn (uhhhhh).

So just enjoying the ride because most of this fodderstuff is obviously up in the air, hopefully everyone has a good showing.


Groose probably isn't a bad pick because he's from a Zelda game and we've already confirmed that 4chan will be rallying for him. Neku, you're dealing with an all-fodder match, Neku's had the most contest appearances, the most game appearances (two, to the one each by the other two), has been around the longest, and has the highest seed, so he stands a decent chance. Booker...I think Gilgamesh gets this because he's Final Fantasy, and actually holds the rare distinction of being a recurring character in the Final Fantasy series, but he's not going to be a powerhouse.

Dragonborn, yeah, you probably screwed up there. A lot of people think Dragonborn will be strong because Skyrim is probably strong, but I just feel like a character whose appearance is completely customizable, who doesn't even really have a canon name (properly nominated, the Skyrim protagonist should've been called "The Last Dragonborn", which is a title, not a name), is probably not going to be very strong. Morrowind and Oblivion both did fairly decently in past games contests, yet this is the first time we've had any Elder Scrolls characters in a Character Battle, right? That alone should say something. I think Elder Scrolls is going to be another one of those things like Starcraft--great in Games Contests but worthless in Character Battles.
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#440 | creativename | Posted 7/31/2013 6:34:24 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
TJF is an actual thing that got conclusively proven this contest. A real, actual thing. It's not worth that much, but a bottom of the barrel entity like Poison doesn't do anything in her match without being propped up by those huge jugs.

And when did this happen?

Unknown Fodder A vs. Unknown Fodder B isn't exactly a good test. And I can't think of another instance where a TJF pic was the reason for something deviating from expectations.

Give Tifa a face pic and give her the biggest boobs pic ever, for all the Tifa boobs hype, ain't gonna make much difference. If people like Tifa cause of her boobs that is just part of her character, the picture she gets is fairly irrelevant.
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#441 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/31/2013 6:34:50 PM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
Tharja was rallied in that match? That's...what was 4chan on? Didn't they realize Tharja was the favorite to begin with?

Not how it works. They don't like Borderlands 2 (I saw a lot of "Memelands 2" comments) and are I think slightly positive at worst on Fire Emblem. They saw it was close, therefore they helped the Fire Emblem character. They don't do upsets for the sake of doing upsets; they have to like the thing they're rallying for (or at least think it's funny) or dislike the thing they're rallying against.


Oh. That's cool, because as far as I can tell their tastes seem to line up with mine more often than not.
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#442 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 7/31/2013 6:35:28 PM | message detail
I like the Ocelot, Zen. It's just kind of creepy and hilarious looking at the same time. Still good.

Karma Hunter posted...
TJF is an actual thing that got conclusively proven this contest. A real, actual thing. It's not worth that much, but a bottom of the barrel entity like Poison doesn't do anything in her match without being propped up by those huge jugs.

If you really think Poison got the 1v1 equivalent of ~45% on Elizabeth because of TJF, you are overrating it more than I usually do! And I only overrate it for fun! Elizabeth is just super weak, and Board 8 underestimated Poison a bit as they tend to do with any fighting game character not named Ryu or Ken (hello Mortal Kombatants every single year). But mostly it's the former. Based on Thrall's previous x-stats, Elizabeth is estimated at like 24.27%. Which sounds too high, frankly, but that pegs Poison at 21.55%. If you adjust Thrall down a little, which we'll probably see is the case for him by the end of the contest, you get closer to <20% for Poison. Which seems reasonable given that secondary Street Fighter characters all seem to float around 23.5% every year (except Chun-Li, who's a few points higher, and Dan who's a joke character both in and out of the contest).

TJF is a thing. It's just not a pronounced thing. Like maybe a 3% difference in a 1v1, if I had to pull a number out of my ass.
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#443 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 7/31/2013 6:36:57 PM | message detail
ZenOfThunder posted...
i feel really bad about Catherine. I was so sure the pic was cool as hell! I guess I should have focused on boobs rather than making a pic I liked. Sorry.

EDIT: hope that didn't sound sarcastic I don't wanna be an ass

It's actually a really cool picture, Zen. I like it.

I think it might not necessarily be to Catherine's advantage, but it's a really cool picture.
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#444 | creativename | Posted 7/31/2013 6:38:04 PM | message detail
Dragonborn will be some level of fodder, but he has a cool name and his competition is terrible. That could well be enough for him to win.

Whether he wins or not depends on what level of fodder he is, which isn't an easy think to predict, as fodder is inherently more unpredictable than elites are.

I mean would anyone seriously be confident in any of the 3 characters in that match? You can't have faith in any of them.
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#445 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 7/31/2013 6:38:05 PM | message detail
Oh man.

That Blue pic is the best he could have gotten. Basically is Gary.
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#446 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/31/2013 6:38:50 PM | message detail
The problem with the Ocelot picture is that only people who've seen the MGSV trailer will know that's Ocelot. He doesn't look like MGS3 Ocelot, and without the mustache, he doesn't really look like MGS1, 2, and 4 Ocelot either.

Dr_Coffee posted...
Sora (Aya will hurt him)


LOL no

They may both be Square but I'd wager most KH fans have no idea what Parasite Eve is.
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#447 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/31/2013 6:39:48 PM | message detail
Right you are, Rad Link 5! Really, in matches where people actually care about the characters, TJF doesn't mean much if anything at all. It's those matches where apathy reigns that a nice pair of boobs can help pull you up. Heck, I'm one of the few people who actually liked Shadow's solo game and I ended up voting for the hot chick. (Of course, it also helped that Shadow was never in any danger in that match.)
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#448 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/31/2013 6:40:33 PM | message detail
MegatokyoEd posted...
Oh man.

That Blue pic is the best he could have gotten. Basically is Gary.


Nah, I'm not seeing it. The colors are all wrong.
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#449 | Xuxon | Posted 7/31/2013 6:40:38 PM | message detail
From: creativename | Posted: 7/31/2013 9:38:04 PM | #444
Dragonborn will be some level of fodder, but he has a cool name and his competition is terrible. That could well be enough for him to win.

Whether he wins or not depends on what level of fodder he is, which isn't an easy think to predict, as fodder is inherently more unpredictable than elites are.

I mean would anyone seriously be confident in any of the 3 characters in that match? You can't have faith in any of them.

people think Dragonborn can beat Tifa if Yuna's in the match. i think they're nuts, personally. that pic makes me nervous Tom Nook could beat him.
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#450 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/31/2013 6:40:39 PM | message detail
Also Aya is LFFing Scorpion in that match

Because if Aya weren't there I'd be voting for Scorpion instead

OH SNAP
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