Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1085

#351 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/31/2013 2:45:52 PM | message detail
Purely midcard? FFVIII got 44% on MGS1 in that match! That's a good showing!

And he's not saying FFVIII would lose. He's saying a lot of B8ers would pick it to lose (because they would).
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#352 | creativename | Posted 7/31/2013 2:46:56 PM | message detail
Oh wow, Missile with 20+%?? I expected like 10% for him...how many voters even know who he is?

And I can't decide whether this is a good performance for Crono because he's blasting Kerrigan, or whether failing to triple Missile portends bad things.
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#353 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/31/2013 2:47:49 PM | message detail
Missile is getting a lot of votes because he's a cute dog. He also had a brief rally on 4chan at the beginning of the match. He's been going 50/50 with Kerrigan since the rally died.
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#354 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/31/2013 2:48:19 PM | message detail
Missile would still probably be in the lead now, though, because of that good early vote.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#355 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/31/2013 2:48:41 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Purely midcard? FFVIII got 44% on MGS1 in that match! That's a good showing!

And he's not saying FFVIII would lose. He's saying a lot of B8ers would pick it to lose (because they would).


And thus the FF8 fans laugh all the way to the bank and a seven point lead on two thirds of the board.
#356 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 7/31/2013 2:51:52 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
43------3------------100.00
42------41----------95.12
41------128--------99.22
40------167--------96.41
39------190--------93.16
38------277--------90.61
37------377--------88.33
36------540--------85.74
35------730--------85.48
34------996--------85.44
33------1234------81.44
32------1405------81.64
31------1447------79.13
30------1470------79.39
29------1266------78.59
28------1026------73.98
27------894--------70.36
26------691--------61.65
25------523--------65.77
24------464--------58.19
23------346--------53.18
22------208--------50.48
21------191--------47.12
20------147--------48.30
19------116--------43.10
18------84----------42.86
17------63----------47.62
16------59----------50.85
15------41----------39.02
14------36----------30.56
13------17----------41.18
12------9------------11.11
11------14----------35.71
10------11----------36.36
9--------2------------0.00
8--------1------------0.00
7--------4------------0.00
6--------1------------0.00
5--------3------------0.00
4--------18----------0.00
3--------1------------0.00
2--------3------------0.00
1--------9------------0.00
0--------1------------0.00

Once again a really easy match for those near the top and still a pretty easy match for everyone else. We only lose 1 -3 (41 points) bracket so they were very close to going perfect.

1 person fell off the Top 49. kurtfisto did not have Gordon Freeman winning the match.

1 person got it wrong and survived. Advokaiser also did not have Gordon Freeman winning the match.
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#357 | Zylothewolf | Posted 7/31/2013 2:53:01 PM | message detail
If we get another game contest I really hope that somehow Super Metroid doesn't even get in the bracket. Seriously that game deserves better than losing to Kingdom Hearts or Assassin's Creed 2.
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#358 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 7/31/2013 2:54:09 PM | message detail
I hope we get a Golden Sun vs. San Andreas rematch so Golden Sun can win again
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#359 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/31/2013 3:01:10 PM | message detail
So Kerrigan has cut 44 votes in the last 15 minutes.
#360 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 7/31/2013 3:02:42 PM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
So Kerrigan has cut 44 votes in the last 15 minutes.


In before the next update is Missile getting 20-30 of it back
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#361 | Zylothewolf | Posted 7/31/2013 3:09:32 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
Oh wow, Missile with 20+%?? I expected like 10% for him...how many voters even know who he is?

And I can't decide whether this is a good performance for Crono because he's blasting Kerrigan, or whether failing to triple Missile portends bad things.


Give Crono some more time. He's not that far from tripling Missile and he will only get closer the longer we get into the poll.
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#362 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/31/2013 3:18:24 PM | message detail
Kerrigan needs about 10 vote cuts per update to win this...
I just wonder if making a comeback will make people think highely of her,or will she still be considered one of the biggest jokes in this contest yet?

Anyway,Europe going to sleep..if it will make any change in trends
#363 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 7/31/2013 3:20:12 PM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Kerrigan needs about 10 vote cuts per update to win this...
I just wonder if making a comeback will make people think highely of her,or will she still be considered one of the biggest jokes in this contest yet?

Anyway,Europe going to sleep..if it will make any change in trends


it's certainly going to stop the bleeding, if the map is any indication
#364 | NachoSwordsman | Posted 7/31/2013 3:22:27 PM | message detail
The rest of the Round 1 pics are up..
Looks like potential upsets coming up
#365 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/31/2013 3:24:37 PM | message detail
http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/cbnine/battle/5195.jpg

...

...

...you all already know my thoughts on the matter.
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#366 | Zylothewolf | Posted 7/31/2013 3:25:55 PM | message detail
Kerrgian will always be a joke. In 2005 we debated if it was Magus, Vincent or Kerrigan that would win the Devil Division. That's right Kerrigan VS Vincent was a very debateable match since both where new, Kerrigan came from Starcraft which we all know what it did in the game contest and Vincent is an optional character which is, to tell the truth, the worst in battles thanks to his limits. Then Vincent won over Kerrigan with 79%.
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#367 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/31/2013 3:27:23 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/cbnine/battle/5195.jpg

...

...

...you all already know my thoughts on the matter.


Steve made me laugh
I'm going to vote for him for this sole reason
#368 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/31/2013 3:28:14 PM | message detail
NachoSwordsman posted...
The rest of the Round 1 pics are up..
Looks like potential upsets coming up


Red and Blue yeeeees
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#369 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 7/31/2013 3:29:43 PM | message detail
I didn't even recognize Gilgamesh. Booker has a good shot there, I think.

Groose looks like an absolute dope, though maybe Zelda power will push him through.

Not the Catherine pic I was expecting. Looks like Neku has a really good shot there too.

Ocelot's looks like some normal old dude.
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#370 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/31/2013 3:29:48 PM | message detail
Posted all of the pics in my match pic topic if you guys want to look in there and comment so we don't overload this topic with them.
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#371 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/31/2013 3:32:32 PM | message detail
Wow Tifa TJF
No words..can describe..
#372 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 7/31/2013 3:37:48 PM | message detail
Then00bAvenger posted...
I didn't even recognize Gilgamesh. Booker has a good shot there, I think.

Groose looks like an absolute dope, though maybe Zelda power will push him through.

Not the Catherine pic I was expecting. Looks like Neku has a really good shot there too.

Ocelot's looks like some normal old dude.


Groose always looks like a dope. Because he is a dope.
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#373 | red sox 777 | Posted 7/31/2013 3:38:08 PM | message detail
Wow, Crono's over 61.5%! Even after that Missile rally cut more than 1.5% off his percentage. He's got it all back and then some. Though obviously he would be even higher if it weren't for that rally, grr.
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#374 | creativename | Posted 7/31/2013 3:39:50 PM | message detail
NachoSwordsman posted...
The rest of the Round 1 pics are up..
Looks like potential upsets coming up

http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/cbnine/battle/5196.jpg

Wait. Why is a character named "Blue"...purple?

Also I had no idea Boko was in this contest!! Go Boko!

And Cecil looks great in that pic.

Also Zelda looks terrible (not that it matters) and Rikku looks...well...topless.
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#375 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/31/2013 3:40:45 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
Rikku looks...well...topless.


That was Zen's plan, I'm sure.
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#376 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 7/31/2013 3:41:17 PM | message detail
Skyward Sword Zelda is actually my favorite Zelda design.

I can definitely see that being a minority opinion though.
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#377 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/31/2013 3:44:32 PM | message detail
Blue actually isn't Blue in most of his official art, for whatever reason.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#378 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 7/31/2013 3:45:31 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
Blue actually isn't Blue in most of his official art, for whatever reason.

Well he's green in even less of his official art.
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#379 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/31/2013 3:46:58 PM | message detail
Kerrigan won the last hour by 60 votes. She'll need to do better than that to get second, but she's sure on pace to make things interesting.
#380 | red sox 777 | Posted 7/31/2013 3:48:32 PM | message detail
Come on Starcraft, give us some of that old magic! You can't just lose by being outrallied!
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#381 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/31/2013 3:49:59 PM | message detail
Crono doing amazing.If Magus isn't in Round 2 he is the favorite now.
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#382 | red sox 777 | Posted 7/31/2013 3:53:49 PM | message detail
Bring it, Pikachu. I say let's have Magus win his match and have Crono win in round 2 anyway. No fear!
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#383 | Janus5000 | Posted 7/31/2013 3:56:26 PM | message detail
I wonder if there's some conspiracy among Crono fans to make Magus lose against Otacon so that he can't be a drag against the rat

if Magus loses this is my excuse
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#384 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/31/2013 4:00:54 PM | message detail
Zylothewolf posted...
Kerrgian will always be a joke. In 2005 we debated if it was Magus, Vincent or Kerrigan that would win the Devil Division. That's right Kerrigan VS Vincent was a very debateable match since both where new, Kerrigan came from Starcraft which we all know what it did in the game contest and Vincent is an optional character which is, to tell the truth, the worst in battles thanks to his limits. Then Vincent won over Kerrigan with 79%.


Kerrigan vs. Vincent wasn't that debatable! I've got the BOP results from 2005 here, and 81.58% of people who responded to it had Vincent. That said, 77.63% of the brackets submitted to the BOP that year had Magus winning that division, 12.5% had Squall, 6.58% had Vincent, 1.97% Dante, and 1.32% Kerrigan. And Magus-Squall was a round 2 match, so over 90% thought that the Magus-Squall winner would beat the Dante/Terra/Vincent/Kerrigan winner (yes, 2.63% of brackets actually had Terra beating Dante and then the Vincent-Kerrigan winner before losing to the Squall-Magus winner).

Remember, of course, that Squall-Magus--literally the only Round 2 match that 100% of brackets had happening, although there were a few others where one match was 100% and the other one had only one person picking the upset--never happened. Magus, favored by over three-quarters of the board to win three matches, lost in round 1.

Brings me back to a retort I was going to make to Leon before I ended up having to leave for dinner--of course they wouldn't be accurate. The X-stats are never accurate. Shifting LFF/SFF factors, too subtle to notice, are probably to blame for the shifts in performance from one round to the next in the 4ways, but we actually still do sort of have a reference point for how natural variance works. Might take a little while to get this looking proper, though.

It's a bad example because the whole reason it was necessary was because the first one got glitched, but it's better than nothing.
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#385 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 7/31/2013 4:03:00 PM | message detail
Janus5000 posted...
I wonder if there's some conspiracy among Crono fans to make Magus lose against Otacon so that he can't be a drag against the rat

if Magus loses this is my excuse


*grabs tinfoil hat*
#386 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 7/31/2013 4:03:57 PM | message detail
That's an awesome picture of Catherine, but it is really lacking on the TJF. I'm thinking Neku's got this wrapped up. On the other hand, Tifa TJF off the charts, god damn.
Ocelot looks hilarious. What is that from?
L-Block and Creeper desperately want different background colors.
Red gonna f***ing destroy with that picture. I don't think I can bring myself to vote Sissel there with that picture staring me in the face.
Recette looks hilariously out of place in her picture.
That is an, uh.... interesting choice for Kratos. Awesome Boko picture, though.
Lenneth... looks surprisingly good as the only thing recognizable as a living being in her picture.
? Block looking dapper as f***.
Skyward Sword Zelda with a gun in her face. Heh. Sackboy looks on, angrily.
Cloud-Lightning is just unfair. What the hell, man.
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#387 | RockMFR | Posted 7/31/2013 4:04:55 PM | message detail
I just saw the poll for the first time today. WTF WTF WTF WTF WTF
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#388 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/31/2013 4:09:41 PM | message detail
Rad Link 5 posted...
That's an awesome picture of Catherine, but it is really lacking on the TJF. I'm thinking Neku's got this wrapped up. On the other hand, Tifa TJF off the charts, god damn.
Ocelot looks hilarious. What is that from?
L-Block and Creeper desperately want different background colors.
Red gonna f***ing destroy with that picture. I don't think I can bring myself to vote Sissel there with that picture staring me in the face.
Recette looks hilariously out of place in her picture.
That is an, uh.... interesting choice for Kratos. Awesome Boko picture, though.
Lenneth... looks surprisingly good as the only thing recognizable as a living being in her picture.
? Block looking dapper as f***.
Skyward Sword Zelda with a gun in her face. Heh. Sackboy looks on, angrily.
Cloud-Lightning is just unfair. What the hell, man.


MGS5. That match pic seriously could be the No Contest For Old Men match pic.
#389 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 7/31/2013 4:13:58 PM | message detail
I swear to god I thought it was a really good cosplayer.
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#390 | Janus5000 | Posted 7/31/2013 4:18:21 PM | message detail
well, Crono is finally tripling a dog

a rat should be child's play after this
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#391 | red sox 777 | Posted 7/31/2013 4:22:27 PM | message detail
Well Pikachu got doubled by a Fox, so I think we're looking great here.
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#392 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 7/31/2013 4:26:49 PM | message detail
Man just saw that Chief/Yuna/Claire pic.

Yuna/Claire gonna have some serious ass LFF going on here. I'd like yoblazer's take on this.
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#393 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/31/2013 4:28:02 PM | message detail
Okay, yeah, you know what? Forget it. Those pre-freeze era update charts are just too awful to work with.
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#394 | Zylothewolf | Posted 7/31/2013 4:57:31 PM | message detail | (edited)
Looks like neither Kerrigan or Missle will end above 20%. Well done Crono, that's more than what Sonic, Sephiroth, Snake or Cloud were able to do.
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#395 | red sox 777 | Posted 7/31/2013 4:57:06 PM | message detail
62% achieved. Mario, you're going down.
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#396 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/31/2013 5:03:12 PM | message detail
There are 48 updates remaining.
Missile leads by 632 votes.
Kerrigan needs to average a gain of 13.16 votes per update to win.
She hasn't been getting anywhere near that for any recent timeframe.
#397 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/31/2013 5:09:58 PM | message detail
Where the heck did they find that Scorpion pic? Is that actually what he looks like in MK9? Pretty much kills any chance he might have had at an upset, although those chances were almost non-existent to begin with.
Gilgamesh really stands out, in that I can barely tell the other two apart.
Groose looks awful, but we all know that he's got the advantage now anyway.
Oh man, Steve looks so awful. Drake stands out in a huge way here as the only one without a huge stupid grin on his face--though even he looks like he's smiling.
That pic...probably favors Fox. Really not "Gary"-ish enough for Blue.
Sandbag's totally taking second place. Even if Isaac were somehow stronger than Sandbag naturally, which is itself a questionable proposition, his character design is such that he could actually be hurt more by Samus's presence than Sandbag is, even though that defies all logic.
The Mr. T look didn't help Barret, so Vaas is a definite non-factor, but Neku-Catherine should be interesting. My logic for picking this match was literally DAT TOP OPTION, so hoping that the bracket voters carry this one. I think I might reconsider, though; TJF's been strong.
Aaaaand Amano Art puts the ball back in Seifer's court. Maybe the original order will be correct after all.
Wow, Bomberman actually looks kind of cool in his match pic. Still won't save him from third place.
Bahahahaha that Ocelot pic. I see what you meant by "cosplayer"; that'd be almost like giving one of the fighters a pic from the live-action movie adaptations of their games.
I'm actually scared for L-Block. Palutena looks gorgeous in her pic and Teemo, already a threat after what we saw Draven do, is super cute--which, as we're seeing today, could actually mean something. Meanwhile, Bacon's LOLBackgrounds really kill a character like L-Block who is naturally monochrome. It could be worse, I suppose, but those backgrounds in the character's dominant color have been awful all contest and L-Block's going to get the worst of it.
...And then a sigh of relief. Hideous gray thing on the left, hideous brown thing on the right, and in the middle, a raccoon with a nice sweater. So glad I didn't buy into the "Skyrim is strong so its main protagonist will be strong" hype.
Dayumn, girls! Master Chief is just kind of sitting off to the side, and...wow...this is exactly the type of pic I was hoping to see out of Tharja vs. Juliet (both of whom have canon bikini pics). Yuna and Claire look remarkably similar here. Asses, check, guns, check, ponytails, check. Love it. This is the type of pic we'd get a lot of if we ever went beyond the "split bracket" and had a full-fledged all-female gimmick contest. (By "gimmick contest", I mean that it would be held up on the level of Spring 2005 and Fall 2011 rather than as a canon Character Battle. And, really, could a Females Contest be any worse than Rivalry Rumble or the Villains Contest? I mean, sure, it's obvious who'd win, but it'd still be fun.)
*headdesk* Well, um, if there's a positive to be found here, it's that Chun-Li's rocking the TJF just as hard as Tifa is, which provides a convenient jumping-off point for the inevitable 4chan Cirno rally.
Are we seriously going with hideous GFW art again? I think even ZUN art would've been better. Can we please get Marisa's DDC picture in here instead?
Guybrush so hideous.
Wow, Squall looks badass. Of course, his competition's awful anyway.
Adol looks just girly enough to possibly steal second place away from Vyse, though I suspect Vyse's recognizability will prevent that from happening.
Oh gawd Tidus looks so awful! His loss is set in stone. With that pic, though, he doesn't even deserve to beat Banjo (he will, though, because he's still an FF lead.)
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#398 | Lopen | Posted 7/31/2013 5:17:04 PM | message detail
lol Ocelot that pic
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#399 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/31/2013 5:18:12 PM | message detail
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
And, really, could a Females Contest be any worse than Rivalry Rumble or the Villains Contest? I mean, sure, it's obvious who'd win, but it'd still be fun.)


We had a female half-bracket once and it was so bad the voters started revolting against Samus. Yeah, it was that bad.
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#400 | Denzokuken | Posted 7/31/2013 5:19:36 PM | message detail
I genuinely thought it was a real person
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Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over....