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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1085
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KanzarisKelshen posted... Karma Hunter posted...This actually illustrates my point. First, let's look at Mega Man v Zero directly. ... ..... ..........or - and just hear me out now - or, Pokemon RBY just might not be that much stronger than Metal Gear Solid. --- sig |
Well,
I'd imagine people thought Seifer/Knuckles could be debatable this year
because of the potential of Sonic Team continuing to weaken. --- http://i.imgur.com/eqOQs.gif |
Why wouldn't it be? I mean, did you see what happened when SSBM was in the same poll as OoT, RBY and FFX? SSBM got beaten down to the ground and yet RBY hung tough and was closeish to FFX (a game that by all rights was a mortal lock to advance). Put MGS in the same circumstances as RBY. Do you take it to do way better and upend FFX with ease? Because if MGS is more or less even with RBY, that's what I'd expect to see considering it wouldn't have to worry about an Ocarina of Time being in the way to take every last company vote. |
LeonhartFour posted... Well, I'd imagine people thought Seifer/Knuckles could be debatable this year because of the potential of Sonic Team continuing to weaken. I wonder why they thought that though. That Sonic Colors pic of Sonic smashing the Sonic Cycle is really all the argument that was needed to refute that. |
Just curious would who would guys pick to win in a Sonic/Pikachu/Knuckles match? --- Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. SuperNiceDog > Me |
Zylothewolf posted... Just curious would who would guys pick to win in a Sonic/Pikachu/Knuckles match? ...Sonic. Brawl LFF show yourself...! --- http://i.imgur.com/CbfFb.jpg |
Zylothewolf posted... Just curious would who would guys pick to win in a Sonic/Pikachu/Knuckles match? Sonic I guess? Depends on how resilient you think Knuckles' fanbase is in that scenario. if he gets LPF'd hard Sonic takes it, if not Pikachu abuses good bracket placement to win once again. |
Kanzari,
that is a really complicated explanation for something that is probably
quite simple. RBY is really strong. MM is pretty strong, as strong as
it showed in the GOTD contest (the most legit contest in years after
all as it used 1v1s). --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
KanzarisKelshen posted...
FFX had to scratch and claw all day to pull away from MGS4. A game that is weaker than MGS. Yeah. MGS could have advanced over FFX if it was given the chance. --- sig |
And
MGS is pretty strong too. Not as strong as RBY (it lost to RBY with
OOT in the poll!), but at or at least near the level of FFX and MM. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
Karma Hunter posted... KanzarisKelshen posted... OK, in that case we're good. That's a consistent position and I can see that. (For the record, I wouldn't be surprised if MGS was sneaky-strong and could actually hang tough with an RBY as strong as I think RBY is. There's no reason our positions have to be incompatible, thinking about it.) |
red sox 777 posted... Not as strong as RBY (it lost to RBY with OOT in the poll!) FFVIII being in the poll probably had some residual effect on MGS1. --- http://img.imgcake.com/leonhjpguz.jpg |
Yes, it probably hurt MGS, but not as much as OOT hurt RBY. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
Oh, no doubt. I kind of wonder what all these old games look like now. It's been 4 years, after all! --- http://www.miscupload.com/upload/452457071929141623517416.gif |
I
wonder about that, Pokemon as an entity doesn't seem to get SFFed by,
like... anything. At any rate, though, you certainly couldn't say that
RBY's SFF from OoT was *severe*, not unless you want to throw its prior
two matches completely out of the window. Pokemon is probably the most
SFF-resistant Nintendo entity there is. --- sig |
I'll take FFX being legitimately stronger than R/B/Y! I still got FFX > Melee/Brawl any time you guys want to hold the match! --- http://i43.tinypic.com/dgwh0.gif http://www.majhost.com/gallery/atukam/OHWD/snownd.gif |
RBY not much stronger than MGS1? http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3486 MGS, with one the biggest standout factors we've ever seen, benefiting from all kinds of LFF, couldn't even pull very far away from RBY. RBY got 44% on MGS1 while having a future contest winner and another Pokemon game in the poll. RBY would 60-40 MGS1 without missing a beat. Extra comparisons: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3462 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4192 --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
KamikazePotato posted... RBY not much stronger than MGS1? You're delusional. RBY can't even 60-40 GSC. --- sig |
Eh, I don't know if you can take that R/B/Y vs. Majora comparison in 2007 at face value. And MGS1 would beat MGS3 pretty easily. (And standout factor is ridiculously overrated, but that's a topic for another time) --- "The great GF...Bahamut." "...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..." |
GSC
might be the pokemon fanbase's favorite pokemon game and it still has
some following among more general Nintendo fans/gamers. They weren't
going to completely abandon GSC just because RBY was there. Ocarina SFF? Was probably there, but irrelevant. Pokemon RBY beats those other games with ease simply after accounting for Nintendo LFF. --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] |
FFX > Melee/Brawl: I think it looks close, I'd want to go for it against Brawl. FFX > RBY: No way (with as much confidence as I can properly muster after a 4 year interval in which loads of stuff could have changed). --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
I
wouldn't expect RBY to SFF GSC in any meaningful way; if anything, I
would expect rSFF there. GSC has the nostalgia power of RBY while being
an objectively better game (it's got RBY's entire world inside it as a bonus), and I think a lot of people who played those games back then feel the same way. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
60/40 not a chance. I was thinking more like 53-54% for RBY against MGS/FFX. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
KamikazePotato posted... I wouldn't expect RBY to SFF GSC in any meaningful way; if anything, I would expect rSFF there. GSC has the nostalgia power of RBY while being an objectively better game (it's got RBY's entire world inside it as a bonus), and I think a lot of people who played those games back then feel the same way. This is Magus > Crono talk. You're delusional. --- sig |
GSC
wouldn't beat RBY, but it has very good reasons to hold up to it, and
possible even overperform. I don't see the issue with that. If anything,
you're delusional for thinking that OoT being in the poll doesn't mean
much. Pokemon is good at resisting overlap, but it's Ocaring of freaking
Time. RBY still pulling that match out with OoT breathing down it's
neck means that it's a very, very clear step up above MGS1. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
People
often overestimate the effect of LFF. It is really really really hard
to make up a 60/40 gap with LFF. Cloud/Sephiroth is a good benchmark
for heavy LFF- and that's only 56/44 on Cloud (much more on poor
Sephiroth). --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
All this means is that we need another Games Contest to settle this. Here's hoping we get one AND Bacon doesn't find a way to completely screw it up. --- http://i.imgur.com/fe05x.png http://i.imgur.com/stNJf.png |
KamikazePotato posted... GSC wouldn't beat RBY, but it has very good reasons to hold up to it, and possible even overperform. No more than Perfect Dark would Goldeneye, or LttP would OoT, or any of the other myriad and constantly debunked examples of rSFF that have been bandied about. There is precisely zero reason to believe RBY can do a single iota better than it managed on GSC in that match, and plenty to believe it could do worse in a 1v1 setting. Every other instance of SFF in a fourway results in the stronger entity beating down the weaker far more than usual, far more than even their SFF would typically indicate. The argument is totally, obviously wrong, and it's not worth any further text spilled on it. --- sig |
LeonhartFour posted... All this means is that we need another Games Contest to settle this. BGE3, 128 entrants, 12-hour matches, OoT Only, Final Destination. LET'S DO THIS |
My fear is that Bacon sticks with this format for a Games Contest. Although as long as we can FINALLY get away from this "divisions by era" crap, I'll deal with just about anything else. --- http://img.imgcake.com/leonhjpguz.jpg |
LeonhartFour posted... My fear is that Bacon sticks with this format for a Games Contest. Ewwwwwww 3ways for Games. Can you imagine a 3-way contest where FF7 is on the south side, OoT on the north, and LttP, Mario 64, RBY and FFX are all in the middle? No matter who takes the middle divisions, we lose. |
None
of those examples apply to Pokemon in the slighest (and Perfect Dark
never got to face Goldeney, but whatever.) The relationship between RBY
and GSC is special because 1. GSC came out soon after RBY and managed to
catch most of the same nostalgia wave it had, and 2. RBY's entire world
is literally inside GSC as a bonus. The protagonist of RBY is the final
boss of GSC! They're very interconnected, and I think that a lot of
people that played them both at the time are going to side with GSC if
they ever meet up because it's just so much more than RBY was at the
time. I made this exact argument before the two met up in their 2008
match and everyone ignored me, so hey. But hey, it's cool that you're admitting you have no idea how another fanbase works. It's alright, the stats topic has been coming to terms with Pokemon since 2007. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
KamikazePotato posted... But hey, it's cool that you're admitting you have no idea how another fanbase works. It's alright, the stats topic has been coming to terms with Pokemon since 2007. If all you can be is pointlessly churlish, I'll just put you on ignore. --- sig |
KanzarisKelshen posted... Ewwwwwww 3ways for Games. Can you imagine a 3-way contest where FF7 is on the south side, OoT on the north, and LttP, Mario 64, RBY and FFX are all in the middle? No matter who takes the middle divisions, we lose. It's basically what this contest comes down to. "Can FFVII beat OoT with Pokemon/Mario 64/LTTP/Smash Bros/whatever" in the match? Although in that case, I'd say FFVII's chances are much better than Cloud's or Snake's. --- http://www.miscupload.com/upload/452457071929141623517416.gif |
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Well, let's look at what happened the next round, when you replaced Melee with Brawl and RBY with MGS4. And remember, according to GotD, Brawl is actually the stronger Smash game. ...Yep, OoT's percentage on FFX increases. What about the comparison between FFX vs. Brawl to FFX vs. Melee? ...Yeah, FFX had a lower raw percentage than in the Melee/RBY match, while Brawl had a higher percentage than Melee did. But that's to be expected now that there are only two Nintendo entries instead of 3, so maybe it doesn't mean anything. ...29.97% on OoT for Brawl, as opposed to 26.26% for Melee. ...Nope, that's still meaningless, because we'd expect RBY to be hurting Melee as well. But wait...maybe there is a meaningful comparison to be made... MGS1 vs. Ocarina (R3): 35.11% with FFVIII and RBY in the poll. MGS4 vs. Ocarina (R5): 32.48% with FFX and Brawl in the poll. ! Yeah. Theoretically, Brawl should hurt OoT more heavily than RBY should. And also, unless Melee was really leeching RBY hard, the mere fact that FFX knocked RBY out when FFVIII couldn't suggests that X is the stronger FF game and would therefore suck up a greater percentage of the vote. So how is this even close? ...Oh, right, lol4ways. Twilight Princess and RE4 combined to knock out MGS3 one round, then both got knocked out by MGS4 and Brawl the next round. MGS4 > MGS3? GotD doesn't think so. (Although most of the late GotD results actually do support some of these conclusions--Brawl knocked out TP again, RE4 wasn't stopped until meeting FFX, FFX did have the better result against MM compared to Brawl... GotD more or less makes sense if you adjust Majora's Mask to act as a proxy for OoT's. Take whichever FFX-OoT result you think is most legitimate, plug the percentage of the final to get a percentage of OoT's strength, and just assume that MM was that percentage of OoT throughout. It'll probably work perfectly. --- RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed. |
You started off this conversation by calling me 'delusional'. Surprise: I'm a dick to dicks! --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
LeonhartFour posted... KanzarisKelshen posted...Ewwwwwww 3ways for Games. Can you imagine a 3-way contest where FF7 is on the south side, OoT on the north, and LttP, Mario 64, RBY and FFX are all in the middle? No matter who takes the middle divisions, we lose. Which is why it would be so bad. If Link pulls it off this time, I don't think any of us want to see the repeat. And if he doesn't...do we REALLY want to see FFX possibly making the finals and giving OoT the largest finals win since 2002? |
FFX
proving itself against all those Nintendo games would be the TRUE
victory of the contest. The finals would just be a technicality. Granted, FFX would probably have to do it in a situation like FFX/Mario 64/LTTP or something, but details, details! --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
TsunamiXXVIII posted... KanzarisKelshen posted... What this tells me is that you should do the Tsunamistats of GotD using this theory. Just to see how much they deviate from the actual results. |
LeonhartFour posted... All this means is that we need another Games Contest to settle this. 3-way SFF/LFF-fests confirmed |
LeonhartFour posted... FFX proving itself against all those Nintendo games would be the TRUE victory of the contest. The finals would just be a technicality. Surprise run: FF8 gets slotted into a Div 6 full of Ninty games, dark horses its way to Round 4, costs FFX the win against SM64, OoT proceeds to beat FF7 down worse than Link would kill Cloud with Mario in the poll. Better or worse than FFX making the finals? |
Wait, OoT whipping FFVII with Mario 64 in the poll? No way that happens. FFVIII doing well in a Games Contest wouldn't be a "dark horse" unless it goes out and does something like...beat Mario 3 or something. --- http://gifsoup.com/view/874243/big-boss-o.gif |
KamikazePotato posted... None of those examples apply to Pokemon in the slighest (and Perfect Dark never got to face Goldeney, but whatever.) The relationship between RBY and GSC is special because 1. GSC came out soon after RBY and managed to catch most of the same nostalgia wave it had, and 2. RBY's entire world is literally inside GSC as a bonus. The protagonist of RBY is the final boss of GSC! They're very interconnected, and I think that a lot of people that played them both at the time are going to side with GSC if they ever meet up because it's just so much more than RBY was at the time. I made this exact argument before the two met up in their 2008 match and everyone ignored me, so hey. http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/%286%29Magus_vs_%283%29Crono_2004 --- If you believe in the Lord FE7 and you accept FE7 as the Savior of video games and are 100% proud of it, put this in your sig. |
LeonhartFour posted... Wait, OoT whipping FFVII with Mario 64 in the poll? Let's say it beats Super Mario World (probably stronger than Mario 3 at this point) with something like GSC in the poll. Does it count as a dark horse then? Also huh, you think OoT doesn't win when its albatross is just SM64? I remember OoT whipped that game way badly. |
Nah,
FFVIII beating a game stronger than it is via LFF wouldn't really be a
dark horse because it'd probably end up being a popular pick. OoT beat Mario 64 pretty badly, yeah, but that was back before Mario 64 was the strongest Mario game (simpler times). --- http://img600.imageshack.us/img600/8718/leonflowchart.png |
I
feel like FF8 has a wide range of things it could beat and still be
considered a dark horse, it doesn't feel like its contest strength is
respected much to me. Feels like the board would line up pretty heavily
against it even if it was going up against something like Super Metroid. --- sig |
KanzarisKelshen posted... LeonhartFour posted...My fear is that Bacon sticks with this format for a Games Contest. I'm still pretty sure that this is a 1-time thing. Just look at the nine 1-seeds. This is Character Battle IX, so the Noble Nine are being honored. This is the first time that they all get to be on the same seed line--the first time that we're not forced to have two of them meet up one round earlier than the rest of them get their first match against each other. Once that's passed, it'll be back to the way things were. ...Which if the GotD bracket is any indication, will still suck. Because this will totally be an actual division once the division by eras is removed: 1) Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 16) ??? 8) Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword 9) ??? 5) ??? 12) Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening 4) Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess 13) ??? 3) Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask 14) ??? 6) Legend of Zelda: Wind Waker 11) ??? 7) Legend of Zelda 10) ??? 2) Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past 15) ??? And I'm not entirely convinced that he won't decide that a joke rally for one of the CDi games isn't funny and make that the 16-seed, allowing Ocarina of Time to go 4 rounds without facing a single non-Zelda game. --- RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed. |
Yeah,
probably. B8 in general doesn't think as highly of FFVIII's strength as
it should. I guess I'm looking at it from my own perspective. --- "The great GF...Bahamut." "...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..." |
Karma Hunter posted... I feel like FF8 has a wide range of things it could beat and still be considered a dark horse, it doesn't feel like its contest strength is respected much to me. Feels like the board would line up pretty heavily against it even if it was going up against something like Super Metroid. Let's not say things we can't take back, here. FF8 is probably purely midcard in strength, but losing to Super Jobtroid? |
KanzarisKelshen posted... Karma Hunter posted...I feel like FF8 has a wide range of things it could beat and still be considered a dark horse, it doesn't feel like its contest strength is respected much to me. Feels like the board would line up pretty heavily against it even if it was going up against something like Super Metroid. Not saying I'd take it, but yeah, FF8 doesn't really get a lot of credit. It didn't do too bad on MGS honestly. --- sig |
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