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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1085
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KanzarisKelshen posted... Besides, of course, that he's Mario. Didn't stop Nintendo fans from siding with Charizard in a head-to-head match, bandwagon or not. --- http://www.gifsoup.com/view/593815/frasier-and-niles-dance-o.gif |
And I say that while admitting Charizard is not worth 55% on Bowser directly. He overperformed in that match, too. Still better than Pikachu though. --- Guess who I am! http://gifsoup.com/webroot/animatedgifs3/1345748_o.gif |
LeonhartFour posted... KanzarisKelshen posted...http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3760 Because it's just crazy to think he'd come even close to having a close match with Knuckles. Like really, what reasoning is there to assume he'd be able to do that beyond his X-stats being super roided? Why does Duke gain a bunch of strength going from 2008 (a year where he did very well by all reckonings) to 2010, with no games in sight and no reason to boost that much at all? It just makes no sense at all. You can't attribute a big leap in strength like that to year to year variance. |
Cecil Harvey got 48% on Knuckles. Dude isn't what he used to be. Well, he might be better now after we've already seen Sonic and Robotnik surpass expectations, but Knux isn't "40% on Snake" good anymore. --- http://i.imgur.com/eqOQs.gif |
KanzarisKelshen posted... LeonhartFour posted...There's no reason to believe Mario SFFs Charizard into the ground. RBY didn't get SFFed very much by OoT. It could only score 59% on GSC, that makes it worth only like 55% on MGS if you assume GSC didn't get SFFed by RBY at ALL. Edit: And on a more salient note, Pikachu didn't get SFFed by Luigi. If anything he overperformed on him (unless you want to take Leon > Luigi in 2k7, man that woulda been something to see). --- sig |
Missile unable to build the lead in 90 minutes. This would have been an interesting match if they didn't overdo the rallying so much --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
Seriously, the only reason people would even consider
debating Seifer/Knuckles is because Knux is much weaker than he was
several years ago. Seifer doesn't come close to beating Knux at his
peak. --- http://i.imgur.com/CbfFb.jpg |
69% update for Crono Someone check and make sure Kleenex isn't going into convulsions --- http://i.imgur.com/kCpvD.gif |
I
was going to say something but I could scarcely type up a post I was so
excited. God forbid he ever breaks 70, you guys won't get an analysis
from me tonight. --- i'll do rydia -Dante |
LeonhartFour posted... Seriously, the only reason people would even consider debating Seifer/Knuckles is because Knux is much weaker than he was several years ago. Seifer doesn't come close to beating Knux at his peak. Eh, he's not that much weaker. Knuckles 2k5 is the aberration, because the Squall match is fraudulent. --- sig |
LeonhartFour posted... Cecil Harvey got 48% on Knuckles. Dude isn't what he used to be. OK, yeah, I can accept that. Actually, you know what I'm thinking? We can get a better idea of how legit Charizard is by looking at Cecil/Pit/Wrex. If Cecil comes out and flat out dominates the poll (say, if he pulls 40+%?) we can assume that while Knuckles was weaker in 2010, he was not that much weaker that he'd be afraid of Duke because the Dissidia boost was legit. Karma Hunter posted... KanzarisKelshen posted...LeonhartFour posted...There's no reason to believe Mario SFFs Charizard into the ground. Wrong match KH. I was thinking about OoT/MGS/RBY/FF8. That's a match where I think we can all agree RBY absolutely dominates either of the two games that didn't place 1v1, and yet it ended up pretty close to MGS. The explanation here being, of course, that OoT SFFd it pretty hard. As much as I'd like to believe MGS and FF8 are even close to RBY I don't think that's actually true in a legit environment where a vote sponge isn't soaking up every last casual vote. |
KanzarisKelshen posted... LeonhartFour posted...There's no reason to believe Mario SFFs Charizard into the ground. Seriously? RBY did wonderfully in the face of OoT SFF. Managed to actually advance against two non-Nintendo things in Round 3, one of which it had lost to the previous round (albeit with a far greater leech in the form of its own sequel, plus another Nintendo thing), and do you really think that RBY would beat Melee in a 1v1 at all? I don't. Unless you think that RBY would've beaten FFX outright without Ocarina there--which, granted, taking Majora's Mask's GotD strength as being perfectly legit rather than being massively boosted as an OoT proxy says is completely logical--I can't see how you think OoT hurt RBY all that much. But of course, who really thinks that MM's GotD strength was legit? Pokémon GSC literally got a better direct percentage on MM in 2009 while sharing a poll with RBY than it did in GotD in a 1v1. --- RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed. |
LeonhartFour posted... Seriously, the only reason people would even consider debating Seifer/Knuckles is because Knux is much weaker than he was several years ago. Seifer doesn't come close to beating Knux at his peak. ...People are considering that match? Like seriously? After seeing how much Seifer dragged Squall down compared to Sora? |
Oh, Knux 2005 is definitely overrated. But he went from an easy 55/45 win on Yuna in 2003 to needing Vaan in the match to beat Rikku in 2007. --- http://i.imgur.com/M7vKB.gif |
KanzarisKelshen posted... ...People are considering that match? Like seriously? After seeing how much Seifer dragged Squall down compared to Sora? You mean how Sora did really well on Squall like he did three separate times in 4-ways? --- http://www.miscupload.com/upload/452457071929141623517416.gif |
To be fair, Knux was clearly getting hurt by Yoshi. ...Speaking of, wasn't there a lot of arguing that Knuckles was going to BEAT Yoshi there? 'woops' |
Pretty sure I had Knux > Yoshi, yeah! Still kinda skeptical on tertiary Mario/tertiary Sonic LFF though. But I guess we'll see when Sonic/Vincent/Bowser rolls around! --- "So cold. I am always by your side." "There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!" |
KanzarisKelshen posted... Wrong match KH. I was thinking about OoT/MGS/RBY/FF8. That's a match where I think we can all agree RBY absolutely dominates either of the two games that didn't place 1v1, and yet it ended up pretty close to MGS. The explanation here being, of course, that OoT SFFd it pretty hard. As much as I'd like to believe MGS and FF8 are even close to RBY I don't think that's actually true in a legit environment where a vote sponge isn't soaking up every last casual vote. No, I know you were, and you're dead wrong. Putting aside the fact that MGS and FF8 have all kinds of overlap, it doesn't diminish the fact that RBY couldn't SFF GSC - A MATCH TAILOR MADE FOR IT TO CRUSH - more than a 59-41, despite that in every other scenario we've seen the stronger entity in SFF will absolutely lay waste to its counterpart in order to save itself. Unless you're willing to postulate that RBY can't SFF GSC (why would this be the case), it's not that much stronger than MGS at all, not when we've got a direct match where MGS had just tangoed with GSC to compare it to. --- sig |
Eh, if Mario can murder Sonic, no reaosn why Yoshi can't beat the snot out of Knuckles. |
Seifer bringing down Squall to...Sora level isn't bad at all. And I'd like to believe Seifer would be stronger than Cecil. Too bad about Celes --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0 |
FranzyvonKarma posted... Eh, if Mario can murder Sonic, no reaosn why Yoshi can't beat the snot out of Knuckles. Mario/Sonic is a special case. Sonic in general is a special case because he's in Brawl and these other guys aren't. Well, I guess all those Olympic Games crossovers could have some effect by now, but not back in 2007. --- http://i.imgur.com/M7vKB.gif |
LeonhartFour posted... KanzarisKelshen posted......People are considering that match? Like seriously? After seeing how much Seifer dragged Squall down compared to Sora? Err...am I missing a match somewhere? Because that I can see, Sora and Squall shared one kinda sorta legit poll in 2008, one SFFfest with the worst possible opponent Squall could draw in Cloud (who hurts him harder than he hurts Sora, and yet Squall didn't break and beat Kid Clownshoes regardless), and then 2007 stuff where Sora got beyond dismantled. That doesn't add up to three matches even if we count the poll with Cloud and Mewtwo in it. |
pjbasis posted... And I'd like to believe Seifer would be stronger than Cecil. Oh, Seifer would definitely be stronger than pre-Dissidia Cecil. Post-Dissidia Cecil? I dunno. --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
KanzarisKelshen posted... LeonhartFour posted...Seriously, the only reason people would even consider debating Seifer/Knuckles is because Knux is much weaker than he was several years ago. Seifer doesn't come close to beating Knux at his peak. Sonic characters translate very poorly to multi-option matches as was evident throughout the previous, I think its mostly a fear of that happening again. --- Smurf, the cream of Sonic Fanboyism. |
Karma Hunter posted... KanzarisKelshen posted...Wrong match KH. I was thinking about OoT/MGS/RBY/FF8. That's a match where I think we can all agree RBY absolutely dominates either of the two games that didn't place 1v1, and yet it ended up pretty close to MGS. The explanation here being, of course, that OoT SFFd it pretty hard. As much as I'd like to believe MGS and FF8 are even close to RBY I don't think that's actually true in a legit environment where a vote sponge isn't soaking up every last casual vote. Similar situation to Mega Man vs. Mega Man X? We know that somehow, Zero doesn't totally fold to MM. So...why is it completely crazy for GSC to not completely fold to RBY? |
KanzarisKelshen posted... Err...am I missing a match somewhere? Because that I can see, Sora and Squall shared one kinda sorta legit poll in 2008, one SFFfest with the worst possible opponent Squall could draw in Cloud (who hurts him harder than he hurts Sora, and yet Squall didn't break and beat Kid Clownshoes regardless), and then 2007 stuff where Sora got beyond dismantled. That doesn't add up to three matches even if we count the poll with Cloud and Mewtwo in it. Did well on Squall the first match in 2007. I guess you can blame it on Aerith being there, but Aerith clearly has had an effect on Sora in the past. And there's no legit explanation for Sora overperforming in that Squall/Sora/Yoshi/Fox match (another match where Yoshi looked really bad, by the way. Was closer to Fox than he was to Sora). Sora is just a bad matchup for Squall because Sora is at his strongest in the U.S. and Squall is weaker in the U.S. relative to everywhere else. He lost to Auron in the U.S., after all. --- http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lo22vfguji1qzxr43.gif |
--Smurf-- posted... KanzarisKelshen posted...LeonhartFour posted...Seriously, the only reason people would even consider debating Seifer/Knuckles is because Knux is much weaker than he was several years ago. Seifer doesn't come close to beating Knux at his peak. I totally could've bought that before Sonic's match, but after he came and put out a championship performance like that? It just seems kinda loony to argue that it would've been at all close. Seifer could surprise me and somehow make a run for it even with Celes in the poll (Since Old and New Square don't overlap much) but it seems so...unlikely. Like we're talking 'somehow Kefka wins his match and does so with ease' levels of unlikely. |
Just to comment, but if you know the Pokemon fanbase, it is not hard to imagine why RBY couldn't SFF GSC. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 38/44 Today's Picks: Gordon Freeman and Crono |
Seifer
is absolutely not stronger than Cecil. I hate to play the BUT
NOMINATIONS card, but this isn't a case of Pokeymanz or FFVIIs. If
Seifer were stronger than Cecil, he's probably the second-strongest
character in a major Final Fantasy title, and if you can't get into the
contest even with the NRT (or did Seifer even go so far as to fail to
make the vote-ins?) with a game as strong as FFVIII under your belt, I
find it very hard to believe you have anything resembling strength. |
LeonhartFour posted... KanzarisKelshen posted...Err...am I missing a match somewhere? Because that I can see, Sora and Squall shared one kinda sorta legit poll in 2008, one SFFfest with the worst possible opponent Squall could draw in Cloud (who hurts him harder than he hurts Sora, and yet Squall didn't break and beat Kid Clownshoes regardless), and then 2007 stuff where Sora got beyond dismantled. That doesn't add up to three matches even if we count the poll with Cloud and Mewtwo in it. Oh right, I forgot about the Aerith poll. Yeah, that one is way harder to explain beyond 'FF7 hurts FF8 harder than Kingdom hearts', so I'll concede that. Squall/Sora/Yoshi/Fox looks clear to me though: Sora has a slice of the kiddy vote pie, and as KH has insisted several times throughout the contest, Nintendo LFF is brutal. Why wouldn't Sora steal a part of the votes Nintendo would normally get while in the same poll as two weakened Ninty entrants? If you ran a Squall/Sora/Yoshi poll Sora would look terrible while Squall would probably still retain first against Yoshi. Why wouldn't Sora gain the most when Yoshi loses strength by adding more Ninty to the mix? |
KanzarisKelshen posted... Karma Hunter posted...KanzarisKelshen posted...Wrong match KH. I was thinking about OoT/MGS/RBY/FF8. That's a match where I think we can all agree RBY absolutely dominates either of the two games that didn't place 1v1, and yet it ended up pretty close to MGS. The explanation here being, of course, that OoT SFFd it pretty hard. As much as I'd like to believe MGS and FF8 are even close to RBY I don't think that's actually true in a legit environment where a vote sponge isn't soaking up every last casual vote. This actually illustrates my point. First, let's look at Mega Man v Zero directly. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1768 Nice job, Zero, 44%. But wait, what's this: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3296 For those that don't wanna do the math, Zero dropped like crazy relative to MM this time - down to 36% of MM's vote total. Why? Because all the Mega Man fans were trying like crazy to save MM from losing to Weighted Companion Cube. Which makes sense. We've seen Mega Man turn Zero into a chump, we've seen Cloud turn a match with Sephiroth into a bloodbath when Snake punches him in the mouth... http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3486 But RBY can't SFF it's little brother better than THIS to save itself from MGS!? --- sig |
FranzyvonKarma posted... Seifer is absolutely not stronger than Cecil. I hate to play the BUT NOMINATIONS card, but this isn't a case of Pokeymanz or FFVIIs. If Seifer were stronger than Cecil, he's probably the second-strongest character in a major Final Fantasy title, and if you can't get into the contest even with the NRT (or did Seifer even go so far as to fail to make the vote-ins?) with a game as strong as FFVIII under your belt, I find it very hard to believe you have anything resembling strength. To be fair though, if this were a 1v1 128 entrant bracket, doesn't Vincent not make the cut? It's not totally unbelievable that Seifer could have strength and not have made a contest yet. (Still gonna be bad though) |
Crono
got 57% against Pikachu in 2008 with Ryu in the match, and then 54%
against Pikachu with L-Block in the match (the match where Pikachu slew
the Block). I'd say those match up well with Pikachu's recent
performance in other matches- 45% on Snake is no joke, even in the
sprite round. Pikachu against Yoshi head to head......that's a tough one. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
FranzyvonKarma posted... but this isn't a case of Pokeymanz or FFVIIs. What makes this unsimilar to FFVII? --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0 |
KanzarisKelshen posted... Wrong match KH. I was thinking about OoT/MGS/RBY/FF8. That's a match where I think we can all agree RBY absolutely dominates either of the two games that didn't place 1v1, and yet it ended up pretty close to MGS. The explanation here being, of course, that OoT SFFd it pretty hard. As much as I'd like to believe MGS and FF8 are even close to RBY I don't think that's actually true in a legit environment where a vote sponge isn't soaking up every last casual vote. You really think RBY's that strong? Okay, yeah, RBY is very strong but so are MGS and FF8. I think. Of course, we really have very little to go on, since we still haven't had a proper Games Contest with all games eligible. 2004 was a disaster (and separated by eras), 2009 was a fourway (and also separated by eras), and 2010 excluded all games not made within a specific ten-year span (and also was set up with killer SFF match potential. We got Brawl/Melee, Halo 1/Halo 3, KH/KH2, FF12/Crisis Core (a first-round match!), Wind Waker/Majora's Mask, and FFX/FFIX. And if not for SotC's run, we would've had MGS2/MGS4 with the winner going on to face MGS3. To Bacon's credit, all of the GTA games were in different divisions; all of the Pokémon games were in different divisions...if he wanted to, he could've done so much more with setting up potential SFF matches. That said, he did put Left 4 Dead and Left 4 Dead 2 in the same division, even though they were both double-digit seeds and had no real chance at facing each other anyway.) --- RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed. |
pjbasis posted... FranzyvonKarma posted...but this isn't a case of Pokeymanz or FFVIIs. Because FFVII has had what, 8 or 9 characters make it into the contests, while FFVIII has had one. If Seifer is so unliked that Squall alone keeps him from getting enough nominations to even make the vote-ins, that's pretty damning. |
Kerrigan making tiny cuts? probably won't matter though |
FranzyvonKarma posted... pjbasis posted...FranzyvonKarma posted...but this isn't a case of Pokeymanz or FFVIIs. Don't forget Rinoa. --- I pwn you all! |
FranzyvonKarma posted... and if you can't get into the contest even with the NRT (or did Seifer even go so far as to fail to make the vote-ins?) Seifer wasn't an NRT guy in 2010. That was 2007 (when Diddy didn't get in either, by the way...!). FranzyvonKarma posted... If Seifer were stronger than Cecil, he's probably the second-strongest character in a major Final Fantasy title, and if you can't get into the contest even with the NRT (or did Seifer even go so far as to fail to make the vote-ins?) with a game as strong as FFVIII under your belt, I find it very hard to believe you have anything resembling strength. Well, it's either Seifer or Laguna! Maybe Zell, I guess. I concede that FFVIII could have no one except Squall who would be worth anything in these contests, so Seifer being the 2nd strongest and STILL sucking is possible. --- http://i.imgur.com/CbfFb.jpg |
Eh, the cuts could get larger as the day goes on. Her chances are slim but I wouldn't rule it out. --- http://i.imgur.com/32RNLnc.gif |
FranzyvonKarma posted... Because FFVII has had what, 8 or 9 characters make it into the contests And all but three of those were initially gotten into the contest by B8. --- http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lo22vfguji1qzxr43.gif |
LeonhartFour posted... FranzyvonKarma posted...Because FFVII has had what, 8 or 9 characters make it into the contests And yet we couldn't get Seifer in (and Diddy is a VERY bad argument for Seifer being worth anything~) |
And
"initially gotten into the contest by Board 8" does matter, by the way!
It's why Sub-Zero hasn't missed a contest since we got him in, and why
Charizard will probably never miss another contest, too! --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v516/Sensui22/1248835958206.png |
In fact, I won't even point to Diddy sucking in polls because you're comparing Seifer to pre-Brawl Diddy~ |
FranzyvonKarma posted... And yet we couldn't get Seifer in (and Diddy is a VERY bad argument for Seifer being worth anything~) Like I said, I'm more than willing to concede that FFVIII has no one worth anything except for Squall. But pre-Dissidia Cecil was awful. Seifer could be fodder and still beat that. --- "Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!" "Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!" |
KanzarisKelshen posted... LeonhartFour posted...KanzarisKelshen posted...Err...am I missing a match somewhere? Because that I can see, Sora and Squall shared one kinda sorta legit poll in 2008, one SFFfest with the worst possible opponent Squall could draw in Cloud (who hurts him harder than he hurts Sora, and yet Squall didn't break and beat Kid Clownshoes regardless), and then 2007 stuff where Sora got beyond dismantled. That doesn't add up to three matches even if we count the poll with Cloud and Mewtwo in it. You missed another Squall/Sora poll, and it was the closest of them all. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4565 I guess you could blame that on Riku being stronger than Seifer, but that could also be emblematic of the reason that Sora is such a bad matchup for Squall, namely that Squall draws at least part of his strength from Kingdom Hearts (Seifer does make an appearance in Kingdom Hearts but doesn't even interact with Squall, not to mention he's inexplicably become a child.) Which, going back to the Cloud/Squall/Sora/Mewtwo poll, means that we should probably expect Sora to overperform against any Square character, even ones that are far stronger than he is. After all, in the Kingdom Hearts series, he's the main character and guys like Cloud are just side characters, right? --- RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed. |
Well
yeah of course Seifer would beat pre-Dissidia Cecil, but I'm assuming
pjbasis is talking about how he thinks Seifer would beat post-Dissidia
Cecil. |
TsunamiXXVIII posted... You missed another Squall/Sora poll, and it was the closest of them all. uh no I didn't that was the match that started the whole debate so there was literally no reason to reference it --- "Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?" "I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!" |
Karma Hunter posted... This actually illustrates my point. First, let's look at Mega Man v Zero directly. Yeah, that result is an enigma, but I've got a theory there. It is a completely crackpot theory, but hear me out and have a couple laughs. You know who was hurt hardest by RBY's presence in that match? Majora's Mask. We know that something really weird went down there because even if you assume MM somehow channels the spirit of OoT to boost itself to like double its 2k9 value for GotD (so less than a full BL value but not THAT much less), that still leaves GSC at a level where it gets a similar percentage to what it actually got against RBY. This is nonsense, so there has to be an explanation beyond 'lol voters' there. My take on it is that RBY and MGS combined to more or less take the vast majority of the casual votes in the poll. What you see in RBY/MGS/GSC/MM is MM and GSC operating at the core strength of their hardcore fanbases that did not abandon them for a game higher on the Nintendo totem pole than them, similar to how Samus has a group of people who still vote for her even when faced with Link and Mario. When you take away the casual vote eating sponges, MM ballooned to godslayer levels, because it's a game with a close connection to the strongest game on the site, is well loved by its fanbase, but at the end of the day doesn't have the same gaming-defining impact as the world's most popular handheld franchise and the game that sold people on the idea of games having deep, mature plots. So you have this group of people who love MM so much that they will not desert it in the face of one of Nintendo's biggest games. But what happens when MM is removed from the poll? Logic says that those guys are not gonna have a game that's quite as close to their heart as MM is anymore. So these guys start looking at the other options in the poll and trying to recall which one they have the fondest memories of. They become part of the casual vote. And that casual vote probably goes to RBY first and then MGS, because of the reasoning above. At which point, RBY proceeds to really smash GSC into the ground instead of letting it hang up 40% on it. ...Yeah, it's a crazy theory, but it's what I got. Better than just shrugging and moving along, right? |
For
the record there could be a character named My Ass and he could just be
an ass with eyeballs and I'd take it to beat pre-Dissidia Cecil in a
match. |
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