Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1085

#151 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/31/2013 11:27:51 AM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
Uh, if Crono could match Sephiroth's numbers against anyone, I'd be super super happy. There's too much of a strength gap there for Crono to beat Sephiroth's numbers against anyone.

78% on Kerrigan is plenty fine, and more than enough to beat Pikachu.


Remember that time Crono got within 3% of Missingno's percentage on Sephiroth?

Bad times, man, bad times.
#152 | red sox 777 | Posted 7/31/2013 11:28:13 AM | message detail
Also, Crono's not going to lose percentage today because of the day vote because it is already the height of the summer day vote (no ASV!). He might lose more percentage, but only because of rallying.
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#153 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 7/31/2013 11:28:41 AM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
That I do. Big Daddy>Lloyd by less than 60% seems like a fairly legit thing to me.


What do you expect Lloyd to get on Tifa?
#154 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/31/2013 11:29:20 AM | message detail
#155 | red sox 777 | Posted 7/31/2013 11:29:26 AM | message detail
Remember that time Crono got within 3% of Missingno's percentage on Sephiroth?

Exactly, even with Missingno, a character tailor-made to embarrass Sephiroth, Crono was still a fair ways away from matching Sephiroth's performance.
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#156 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 7/31/2013 11:30:39 AM | message detail
Was it Lloyd who almost lost to Sam Fisher?
#157 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/31/2013 11:31:03 AM | message detail
And Kerrigan cut Missile by 20.

What is this match?!
#158 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/31/2013 11:31:27 AM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
Was it Lloyd who almost lost to Sam Fisher?


That was Gordon Freeman.

Unless you're talking 4-ways, then that was Raiden.
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#159 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/31/2013 11:32:32 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Fox doubled Lloyd back in 2010. I guess it depends on how you think Pikachu/Fox goes.

But say what you want about Lloyd. He'd beat Kerrigan, and Big Daddy would beat Missile. Pikachu's threepack is better than Crono's, so if his performance is in any way comparable, I'd be worried.


...OK yeah, fair point. I'd take either of those two guys to put a comfortable 40% on this poll, minimum (and probably push closer to 50% than 30%). But I give the 'percentage ceiling' more credit than most of the stat topic, I think. I knew 70% was a good performance for Link the second I saw it, for example, because it just seemed intuitively wrong for him to pull down more than that. I feel like every point past, like 45-50% is exponentially harder to earn than the last one, so a 5% difference against stronger competition might be deceptive and not indicative of the strength of two contestants being as similar as it might seem. I know this is probably a theory not many people buy into though, and if Pikachu really pushes hard for the high 50s we can start tolling the doom bells for Crono right away.
#160 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/31/2013 11:32:44 AM | message detail
Wait, nevermind. Gordon DID lose to Sam.

'whoops'
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#161 | xp1337 | Posted 7/31/2013 11:32:50 AM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
How much would Magikarp be getting on Crono right now?

...I'm getting 89.68%

...which makes me think I've forgotten how to calculate X-Stats from the bottom-up more than anything else. >_>
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#162 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/31/2013 11:33:15 AM | message detail
This isn't really a bad performance, even if you assume Kerrigan is as weak as ever, and I've been calling for Crono's head. This rallied Missile's worth a cool 61% on Kerrigan so far, which pegs him at about CATS level. Kerrigan should be stronger, too.
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#163 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 7/31/2013 11:33:17 AM | message detail
Hmm...I'm thinking without rallying Missile is a lot weaker than Kerrigan, which probably means even more good things for Crono.
#164 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/31/2013 11:33:57 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Would you give Lloyd a shot at beating Ness?


Mmmmmmmaybe? I'd probably take Ness, but it'd be close. I wouldn't expect Lloyd to get embarrassed by him or anything unless you count losing to Ness as an embarrassment. It'd be, like, a 3-4% loss at most.
#165 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/31/2013 11:34:46 AM | message detail
Yeah. Now that we're finally starting to accept that Pikachu's got a decent shot at beating Crono even in a fair fight, you just know that Magus will somehow find a way to make it to round 2 and take away the "fair fight" aspect.
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#166 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/31/2013 11:35:06 AM | message detail
Yeah, just taking the Crono/Kerrigan performance at face value should be enough to get past Pikachu. Just depends on if Magus being there matters or not (if he's there. If he's not, Crono wins).
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#167 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/31/2013 11:35:35 AM | message detail
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
Now that we're finally starting to accept that Pikachu's got a decent shot at beating Crono even in a fair fight


spoilers nobody actually believes that
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#168 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/31/2013 11:36:02 AM | message detail
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
Yeah. Now that we're finally starting to accept that Pikachu's got a decent shot at beating Crono even in a fair fight, you just know that Magus will somehow find a way to make it to round 2 and take away the "fair fight" aspect.


He doesn't. At all. To even consider otherwise is preposterous.
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#169 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 7/31/2013 11:36:08 AM | message detail
This is the year where Magus beats Crono.

Prepare yourself.
#170 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/31/2013 11:36:56 AM | message detail
Just to clarify, all I said was that if Pikachu could get 55%+ tomorrow, I'd be worried about him beating Crono. I don't actually expect that. Not even close.
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#171 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/31/2013 11:38:28 AM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
This is the year where Magus beats Crono.

Prepare yourself.


Remember when Link/Magus was the real final? Yeah, Magus gonna finally live up to 2003 expectations...
#172 | red sox 777 | Posted 7/31/2013 11:38:30 AM | message detail
Assuming Crono gets 55% on Pikachu normally (what Snake got in the sprite round), Magus needs to leech enough to make up a 55/45 gap. By past matches, Sephiroth leeches enough off of Cloud to turn a 56/44 match into a 50/50 match. Crono is likely to beat down Magus much worse than Cloud can beat down Sephiroth, however.

Closer than my initial thoughts on seeing the bracket.
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#173 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/31/2013 11:39:03 AM | message detail
I do. Not by much, but yeah, Pikachu should be able to pull 55%.

Of course, I haven't exactly been the best at prognosticating thus far. I had Crono's percentage much higher than this for this match!
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#174 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 7/31/2013 11:40:05 AM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
FranzyvonKarma posted...
This is the year where Magus beats Crono.

Prepare yourself.


Remember when Link/Magus was the real final? Yeah, Magus gonna finally live up to 2003 expectations...


Link/Magus/Mario finals.

Magus's True Strength only shows up in years that end in 3.
#175 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/31/2013 11:41:07 AM | message detail
Oh, I have a feeling his true strength will show up tomorrow, all right...!
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#176 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/31/2013 11:41:11 AM | message detail
I think someone saw that Kerrigan cut and restarted the rally.
#177 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/31/2013 11:44:01 AM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
FranzyvonKarma posted...
This is the year where Magus beats Crono.

Prepare yourself.


Remember when Link/Magus was the real final? Yeah, Magus gonna finally live up to 2003 expectations...


Hahaha. Well, it's not like there isn't a precedent for the obvious last-place finisher winning the match. Remember how the big question before the match was whether or not Kefka would leech Zack enough for Ryu to pull the upset? Pretty sure most of us figured there was no way Kefka was finishing anywhere but third with Zack in the poll.
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#178 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/31/2013 11:44:19 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
What EXACTLY is Missile?I didn't know anything and thought it would be an object like Cube or L-Block.But I find it is a dog that talks?


I wouldn't have known who Missile is if it wasn't for him doing well in NCAA Characters.
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#179 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/31/2013 11:44:45 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Oh, I have a feeling his true strength will show up tomorrow, all right...!



Magus with the 90% domination...of whatever Jade gets.
#180 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/31/2013 11:45:50 AM | message detail
It was another blip. Missile only gained 10 that time.
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#181 | Zylothewolf | Posted 7/31/2013 11:48:04 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
FranzyvonKarma posted...
Was it Lloyd who almost lost to Sam Fisher?


That was Gordon Freeman.

Unless you're talking 4-ways, then that was Raiden.


Gordon Freeman didn't almost lose to Sam Fisher, he actually lost. Oh GFNW sure was fun.
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#182 | --Smurf-- | Posted 7/31/2013 11:50:16 AM | message detail
Votals about 1.5k-2k higher than normal at this time, it's quite a significant rally.
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#183 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/31/2013 11:53:01 AM | message detail
--Smurf-- posted...
There isn't a significant Korean or Chinese voting population on Gamefaqs, I'm not sure what people are expecting out of this.


You're absolutely correct about this. I actually looked at some past polls and calculated that South Korea gets even less votes than Japan on a daily basis. In this year's age poll, I calculated that Japan got 146 votes, while South Korea got 53 votes and China got 54 votes.
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#184 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/31/2013 11:53:07 AM | message detail
Changing the topic (sort of), what does this mean for StarCraft itself in a games contest setting? Heck, what do you think would be the strongest game from the GOTD field that StarCraft would beat?

I'd say it's GTA: San Andreas. I'd take Halo over StarCraft in a rematch (heck, Halo was probably stronger even in 2004).
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#185 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 7/31/2013 11:54:20 AM | message detail
Golden Sun > Starcraft > San Andreas sounds right
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#186 | --Smurf-- | Posted 7/31/2013 11:55:00 AM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
--Smurf-- posted...
There isn't a significant Korean or Chinese voting population on Gamefaqs, I'm not sure what people are expecting out of this.


You're absolutely correct about this. I actually looked at some past polls and calculated that South Korea gets even less votes than Japan on a daily basis. In this year's age poll, I calculated that Japan got 146 votes, while South Korea got 53 votes and China got 54 votes.


Did you get any data on Ireland out of interest?
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#187 | Articuno2001 | Posted 7/31/2013 11:55:09 AM | message detail
Starcraft is more of a game that doesn't give its strength to its characters, kind of like Tales in a way. Starcraft would probably still do very well in a game contest.
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#188 | SliceSabre | Posted 7/31/2013 11:55:33 AM | message detail
How do you even predict stuff like Missile's performance though? I mean I assume something as simple as Missile's devastatingly cute contest picture probably factors into it.
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#189 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 7/31/2013 11:56:04 AM | message detail
Why would Koreans even care about Kerrigan?

Most of them probably don't even touch the SP.
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#190 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/31/2013 12:03:47 PM | message detail | (edited)
Articuno2001 posted...
Starcraft is more of a game that doesn't give its strength to its characters, kind of like Tales in a way. Starcraft would probably still do very well in a game contest.


Yes, it did REAL well in its last games contest, I know.

The five games I most want to see StarCraft face off against in a games contest: Halo, Diablo II, Wind Waker, Golden Sun, Symphony of the Night.
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#191 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/31/2013 12:04:54 PM | message detail
StarCraft chumped out to FF8 in the last games contest, and didn't really even put up a fight. It's not particularly strong now.
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#192 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/31/2013 12:06:11 PM | message detail
Precisely what I was arguing. Although getting thrashed around by Final Fantasy VIII...there could be worse contest fates.

That sounded so wrong.
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#193 | NotTerrafire | Posted 7/31/2013 12:10:19 PM | message detail
--Smurf-- posted...
-LusterSoldier- posted...
--Smurf-- posted...
There isn't a significant Korean or Chinese voting population on Gamefaqs, I'm not sure what people are expecting out of this.


You're absolutely correct about this. I actually looked at some past polls and calculated that South Korea gets even less votes than Japan on a daily basis. In this year's age poll, I calculated that Japan got 146 votes, while South Korea got 53 votes and China got 54 votes.


Did you get any data on Ireland out of interest?


My back of the envelope calculations give me 171, after trying to guess off the percentages.
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#194 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/31/2013 12:12:38 PM | message detail
--Smurf-- posted...
Did you get any data on Ireland out of interest?


171 votes from Ireland in that poll. And for reference, New Zealand had 242 votes. Since Ireland and New Zealand have a similar population total, I found it interesting that New Zealand got about 41% more votes than Ireland in that poll.

I used the age poll from this year because of the ridiculous vote totals.
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#195 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/31/2013 12:15:53 PM | message detail
Looks like the rally might finally be dying off.
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#196 | --Smurf-- | Posted 7/31/2013 12:17:18 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
--Smurf-- posted...
Did you get any data on Ireland out of interest?


171 votes from Ireland in that poll. And for reference, New Zealand had 242 votes. Since Ireland and New Zealand have a similar population total, I found it interesting that New Zealand got about 41% more votes than Ireland in that poll.

I used the age poll from this year because of the ridiculous vote totals.


NotTerrafire posted...


My back of the envelope calculations give me 171, after trying to guess off the percentages.



Thanks. It's never really been a popular site here for some reason. *shrug*
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#197 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/31/2013 12:17:38 PM | message detail
Europeans tend to stick with European websites so it is not that surprising.
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#198 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/31/2013 12:18:08 PM | message detail
Actually glad to see that things are starting to look boring. Crono's well on his way back to breaking 60% and Missile/Kerrigan hasn't moved more than 11 votes in an update for the past half hour.
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#199 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/31/2013 12:19:38 PM | message detail
This probably means that Sarah Kerrigan is more or less naturally on par with unrallied Missile
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#200 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/31/2013 12:20:37 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
This probably means that Sarah Kerrigan is more or less naturally on par with unrallied Missile


Kerrigan being awful never gets old, for some reason.
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