Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1085

#51 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/31/2013 10:30:09 AM | message detail
haha /v/ found our update tracker

they also went to Reddit for help? I can't find a thread if they did, but if Missile spikes, it might be that

there's a lot of in-fighting on /v/ right now over whether or not it's morally right to ask Reddit which is what took so long

I guess they hate Reddit or something
---
~Zen
#52 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/31/2013 10:31:01 AM | message detail
Nope. Just a natural spike. Not indicative of any rally.
#53 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/31/2013 10:31:18 AM | message detail
Yeah, looks like natural variance to me. Missile's recovered from that "down" update, too.
---
RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#54 | --Smurf-- | Posted 7/31/2013 10:31:27 AM | message detail
Kerrigan was making slow cuts in between the rally gathering motion and the early board vote so I'd imagine when the excitement dies down she'll go back to cutting but the nearly 300 vote gain in the last hour from the rally has probably given her too much to do.
---
Smurf, the cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
#55 | Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 7/31/2013 10:31:27 AM | message detail
4chan and reddit hate each other.

4chan especially hates reddit
---
Oh SuperNiceDog's doing it again dude.
SuperNiceDog, you ain't no pimp dude
#56 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/31/2013 10:31:27 AM | message detail
Side note:

>Only two and a half days until the groose is loose
are you ready /v/


this might make a difference in a match that was already probably going to be close
---
~Zen
#57 | spooky96 | Posted 7/31/2013 10:32:55 AM | message detail
Shoenin_Kakashi posted...
4chan and reddit hate each other.

4chan especially hates reddit


And they mutually hate us.
---
Pokemon Showdown Peak Ranking OU: 2004
And then lost 7 matches in a row >_>
#58 | GloryChaos | Posted 7/31/2013 10:33:45 AM | message detail
The rallying should be saved for Luigi. But with Kirby pretty much getting a free ticket to round 3, I'm not sure if any amount of worldwide rallying would save him.
---
Brawl FC - 1332 8069 6690
http://i.imgur.com/OZ9aS.png
#59 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/31/2013 10:34:20 AM | message detail
--Smurf-- posted...
Kerrigan was making slow cuts in between the rally gathering motion and the early board vote so I'd imagine when the excitement dies down she'll go back to cutting but the nearly 300 vote gain in the last hour from the rally has probably given her too much to do.


Only 300? Nah, Missile probably has to build it up further than that. Remember, most of Kerrigan's biggest fanbase is probably still asleep.

But, yeah, I think Missile probably does build it up high enough that Kerrigan can't come back.
---
RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#60 | xp1337 | Posted 7/31/2013 10:35:09 AM | message detail
--Smurf-- posted...
Kerrigan was making slow cuts in between the rally gathering motion and the early board vote so I'd imagine when the excitement dies down she'll go back to cutting but the nearly 300 vote gain in the last hour from the rally has probably given her too much to do.

This is my thoughts on it.

Kerrigan probably does come back from the pre-rally stuff, but I'd be nervous about it because I think it could still have gone wrong.

But now? I kind of doubt it. If Kerrigan counter-rallies, I imagine the Missile one will come back and ugh. I mean, it's early enough that sure, I guess Kerrigan could still comeback and hey, I get 6 points if she does so I'd be thrilled to look like an idiot and be completely wrong, but I don't like the chances of it.
---
xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#61 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/31/2013 10:35:12 AM | message detail
ZenOfThunder posted...
Side note:

>Only two and a half days until the groose is loose
are you ready /v/


this might make a difference in a match that was already probably going to be close


I can easily see a rally sealing a match where every character in that pack is literally worthless.
---
sig
#62 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/31/2013 10:36:00 AM | message detail
I actually don't mind the rallying, makes it more fun

Seeing Missile win something makes my day
---
~Zen
#63 | Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 7/31/2013 10:38:06 AM | message detail
spooky96 posted...
Shoenin_Kakashi posted...
4chan and reddit hate each other.

4chan especially hates reddit


And they mutually hate us.


yeah but they hate each other more than they hate us.
---
Oh SuperNiceDog's doing it again dude.
SuperNiceDog, you ain't no pimp dude
#64 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/31/2013 10:38:22 AM | message detail
Starcraft getting out-rallied by a dog

I never thought I'd see the day
---
http://i52.tinypic.com/2zfiu09.gif
http://i54.tinypic.com/10729w2.gif
#65 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/31/2013 10:39:27 AM | message detail
Did StarCraft EVER have rally potential? The fanbase seems to care so little
---
~Zen
#66 | xp1337 | Posted 7/31/2013 10:40:22 AM | message detail
ZenOfThunder posted...
Did StarCraft EVER have rally potential? The fanbase seems to care so little

Spring 2004. Although I suppose you could contest just how much of a rally that was. >_>
---
xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#67 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 7/31/2013 10:40:44 AM | message detail
This further proves that being an 18 seed is one of the absolute worst places you can be in this contest. It's a guaranteed loss to a Noble Niner, and coming in 2nd place isn't even a guarantee since the 27 seeds have joke/rally potential. Whereas if you switch the 18 seeds with the 19 seeds, the former 18 seeds would've won a few matches. Hell, switch the 18 seeds with the 25 seeds and they'll still be better off.
---
If you believe in the Lord FE7 and you accept FE7 as the Savior of video games and are 100% proud of it, put this in your sig.
#68 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 7/31/2013 10:41:03 AM | message detail
So, was Missile > Kerrigan a popular pick and I was just an idiot or is this technically an upset
---
A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
#69 | GloryChaos | Posted 7/31/2013 10:41:35 AM | message detail
Then00bAvenger posted...
So, was Missile > Kerrigan a popular pick and I was just an idiot or is this technically an upset


Barely anyone expected Missle to break double digits.
---
Brawl FC - 1332 8069 6690
http://i.imgur.com/OZ9aS.png
#70 | --Smurf-- | Posted 7/31/2013 10:42:28 AM | message detail
Then00bAvenger posted...
So, was Missile > Kerrigan a popular pick and I was just an idiot or is this technically an upset


It had small potential if you believed in novelty voting or a rally, doubt very many took it. Would definitely have been a gutsy pick.
---
Smurf, the cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
#71 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/31/2013 10:42:29 AM | message detail
...Seriously?

If Missile can keep this rally up throughout the entire match, then sure, he outrallied Starcraft. But IIRC Starcraft is strongest in Asia, which is asleep right now. I'm not as well-versed in these trends as you are so I can't predict exactly when the counterrally will start, but I'm certain that come the evening, Kerrigan will be fighting back.
---
RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#72 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/31/2013 10:42:47 AM | message detail
Chart from the night match:

Time | Gordon | Hades | Simon | Votes
0:05 | 51.02% | 19.11% | 29.88% | 492
1:00 | 53.27% | 15.90% | 30.83% | 4622
2:00 | 52.05% | 16.26% | 31.68% | 2484
3:00 | 55.48% | 14.86% | 29.66% | 1878
4:00 | 57.98% | 14.05% | 27.97% | 1523
5:00 | 55.12% | 13.60% | 31.28% | 1250
6:00 | 56.37% | 13.91% | 29.73% | 1201
7:00 | 56.26% | 13.45% | 30.28% | 1301
8:00 | 54.45% | 14.33% | 31.22% | 1528
9:00 | 54.17% | 13.99% | 31.83% | 1665
10:00 | 55.25% | 14.34% | 30.41% | 1792
11:00 | 54.14% | 15.21% | 30.65% | 1762
12:00 | 55.96% | 14.41% | 29.63% | 1603

Match kind of balances out after the Power Hour, though Gordon does a little better with the Euro vote. And I guess we can safely say that if Pit isn't winning out of the gate, he's not going to win if B8 is so desperate to vote for Nintendo that literally Hades can win the board vote.

X-Stats:

Gordon Freeman – 50.00%
Simon Belmont – 35.88%
Hades – 21.36%

Gordon's prediction percentage was 75.76%
---
http://www.miscupload.com/upload/452457071929141623517416.gif
#73 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/31/2013 10:43:02 AM | message detail
Then00bAvenger posted...
So, was Missile > Kerrigan a popular pick and I was just an idiot or is this technically an upset


http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/66816683/753089402
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/66816683/753089409
---
~Zen
#74 | xp1337 | Posted 7/31/2013 10:43:10 AM | message detail
Then00bAvenger posted...
So, was Missile > Kerrigan a popular pick and I was just an idiot or is this technically an upset

Pretty sure this is an upset. I almost went for it because Kerrigan is a joke and seriously guys, a dog was always going to get votes, it's the next logical step in the path this contest has gone down!

But then I saw the Analysis Crew was unanimous on Kerrigan so I backed away from it slowly because the last time I thought like this I was wrong. Not sure what the stats on this are, I'd be surprised if Kerrigan wasn't the favorite though.
---
xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#75 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/31/2013 10:43:42 AM | message detail
I thought about picking Missile to beat Kerrigan because nobody has a more notorious history for epic levels of suckitude in this contest than her, but still went with Kerrigan in the end.
---
"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"
#76 | red sox 777 | Posted 7/31/2013 10:44:16 AM | message detail
Starcraft's rallies always started around 8-9 ET. So, the last 3 hours of this match if 9 year old info holds up.
---
Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#77 | --Smurf-- | Posted 7/31/2013 10:44:29 AM | message detail
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
...Seriously?

If Missile can keep this rally up throughout the entire match, then sure, he outrallied Starcraft. But IIRC Starcraft is strongest in Asia, which is asleep right now. I'm not as well-versed in these trends as you are so I can't predict exactly when the counterrally will start, but I'm certain that come the evening, Kerrigan will be fighting back.


There isn't a significant Korean or Chinese voting population on Gamefaqs, I'm not sure what people are expecting out of this.
---
Smurf, the cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
#78 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/31/2013 10:44:33 AM | message detail
Another "down" update for Missile; only increased the lead over Kerrigan by 5 and still easily lost more than 100 votes to a sub-200 Crono.
---
RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#79 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/31/2013 10:45:14 AM | message detail
I don't like pomeranians, but seeing Kerrigan just s*** the bed like this is too good. Starcraft 2 is everything wrong with modern gaming.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Main_Page, Rest in peace Kazbar :(
#80 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 7/31/2013 10:47:05 AM | message detail | (edited)
People think Kerrigan can come back from a beating like that?

That would be a sight to see
---
A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
#81 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/31/2013 10:47:01 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
I thought about picking Missile to beat Kerrigan because nobody has a more notorious history for epic levels of suckitude in this contest than her, but still went with Kerrigan in the end.


I...forgot to change my Expert Challenge bracket, actually. I mean, it's not like I was going anywhere anyway, but I did have Missile ahead of Kerrigan in my Oracle pick, and yet I'm still getting zero points in Expert Challenge unless Kerrigan somehow makes a comeback.
---
RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#82 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/31/2013 10:48:07 AM | message detail
Then00bAvenger posted...
People think Kerrigan can come back from a beating like that?

That would be a sight to see


Well, considering the biggest swing we've seen in a day vote so far is...250 votes, Missile's already got this locked up!
---
"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"
#83 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/31/2013 10:48:35 AM | message detail
It's...almost happening. That's two 60+ updates in a row for Kerrigan, and two updates in a row where Missile could only extend the lead by single digits.
---
RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#84 | xp1337 | Posted 7/31/2013 10:49:30 AM | message detail
Still extending though. Kerrigan needs to make sustained cuts for me to even think about a comeback here. And it probably has to happen really soon.
---
xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#85 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/31/2013 10:50:49 AM | message detail
Yeah, I know. And that last update just killed any chances of it happening. Missile's got this locked up now.
---
RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#86 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/31/2013 10:50:59 AM | message detail
closer and closer to Crono, Missile~
---
sig
#87 | tennisboy213 (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/31/2013 10:51:13 AM | message detail
MASSIVE 49-vote gain for Missile
---
POKEFEAR
#88 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/31/2013 10:51:27 AM | message detail
#89 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/31/2013 10:51:53 AM | message detail
Actually, that looks like a sign that the rally is back on. First time since the freeze that Missile's pulled a triple-digit update.
---
RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#90 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/31/2013 10:53:01 AM | message detail
TheKoolAidShoto posted...
animals more popular than black people

this website


Kerrigan's white though.
#91 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/31/2013 10:54:04 AM | message detail
Kind of hoping today means Magus does well tomorrow. Losing to Otacon would just be the worst.
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Main_Page, Rest in peace Kazbar :(
#92 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/31/2013 10:54:05 AM | message detail
Completely missing the point.
---
RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#93 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 7/31/2013 10:54:21 AM | message detail
also to be fair koolaid would you rather have people rallying for Barret going "Aren't black people funny looking let's vote for them LOL BLACK PEOPLE"
#94 | jacko_vdz | Posted 7/31/2013 10:55:37 AM | message detail | (edited)
This strangely makes me want to play Ghost Trick. I have to know why a dog in a visual novel has so much rally power!
#95 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/31/2013 10:54:59 AM | message detail
Hmm...yeah, what can this tell us? Crono is still doing very well despite a rally occurring.
---
RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#96 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/31/2013 10:55:48 AM | message detail
#97 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/31/2013 10:56:36 AM | message detail
jacko_vdz posted...
This strangely makes me want to play Ghost Trick. I have to know why a dog in a visual novel has so much rally power!


He's a main character in a game written by Shu Takumi (read as: the same guy who wrote the Phoenix Wright series). Is it a surprise that he's well-loved?
#98 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/31/2013 10:57:03 AM | message detail
I'd give the odds of Missile winning an update outright over Crono now at about 50/50, he just keeps jumping up relative to him.
---
sig
#99 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/31/2013 10:57:28 AM | message detail
Almost nobody voting for Missile actually cares about him or even knows who he is.
---
i'll do rydia -Dante
#100 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/31/2013 10:58:29 AM | message detail
...Well this could be bad.

Missile seemingly fell back to earth on that update, as evidenced by only gaining 20 over Kerrigan. Yet this was still Crono's worst update for increasing his lead! In fact, Crono's lead over Kerrigan didn't even increase by 100 on that update.

If the rally can start moving strong again, this match could get very interesting very quickly. (Crono's still going to win, of course, but we could actually see some cuts.)
---
RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.